Syria

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Endovelico
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Re: Syria

Post by Endovelico »

Unfortunately American foreign policy is in the hands of the most complete set of idiots the world has ever seen. That's why I by far prefer Russia and Putin - even China - to the US as a major power.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Syria

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.


Debka :

US, Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Qatar and UAE
arm Al Qaeda’s Syrian branches


For the first time in the nearly five-year Syrian war, opposition forces, such as the Army of Conquest and the Free Syrian Army, are receiving substantial quantities of heavy weapons from the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, DEBKAfile’s military sources report.

What a disaster

.
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Doc
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Re: Syria

Post by Doc »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Doc wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef- ... 76248.html
Assad Is Losing and Iran as Well -- It Can Be Dangerous


Posted: 05/01/2015 11:53 am EDT Updated: 1 hour ago

Syria's Defense Minister and Deputy Commander in Chief of armed forces, Fahad Jasim Al Freij (the Commander is Bashar Assad himself), just visited Tehran. If we are to believe Sana, the mouthpiece of the Assad regime, and I, for one, do not, the parties discussed cooperation in face "of terrorism." In the eyes of Syria and Iran, the enemies of Assad are all "terrorists," which means the vast majority of the Syrian people, which opposes the Alawite-dominated regime. Be it as it may, the visit was not about "terrorists," rather it was about the survivability of the Assad regime, and with it, the severe implications of a possible collapse in Damascus over Iran's regional aspirations.

It has been the consistent view of this blog ever since the Syrian civil war started, that the regime cannot win. It is usually the case, that a process can be anticipated and predicted, not so the exact timing of it coming to an end. In that case, the exact timing and circumstances of the downfall of the Assad dynasty. Since the regime has not collapsed, some impatient pundits and policy makers in DC have started to spread the idea that Assad is coming out as the winner in the bloody civil war in his country. No, he does not, and in fact, while the final defeat may not be behind the door, there have been some major local defeats recently, which clearly indicate, that the regime and his Iranian allies are losing, and losing big time. First, the regime has proved unable to regain control in South Syria, near the borders with Israel and Jordan, an area very close to Damascus . Then there is the inability of the Syrian army and Hezbollah to maintain a steady control over the Kalamun area , dominating important supply lines along the border with Lebanon. When the Assad and Hezbollah forces took this area over, their success was hailed as an indication that they are winning the entire war. Since then, the battlefield there has turned into a killing field for the regime forces and their Lebanese allies. Then came the greatest defeat of all, the loss of the town Jisr al Soughour near Idlib in North Syria. This is a strategic loss, because this town controls the roads to the Alawite heartland. Assad home base is now in danger. Not yet a game changer, but much more than just a red light to the regime. What happens is the result of the fact, that demography starts to take its toll. There simply are many more Sunni Muslims than Alawites and Sh'iites, and also the flow of Sunni volunteers from the Sunni world outnumbers the support which the regime receives from Sh'iites mobilized by Iran. Too many times the end of the regime seemed imminent, and the end was not coming, so it will be wise not to draw dramatic conclusions this time, but the Iranians are worried and they know why.

Even within the regime, there is growing opposition to the actual Iranian domination of Syria. General Rustum Ghazala, an Alawite and a close confidant of Assad paid in his life for expressing opposition to the Iranian role. He was declared dead few days ago, just a day before he was supposed to appear in a Lebanese TV station owned by no other than Sa'ad Hariri, the son of former P.M Rafiq Hariri, who was murdered in 2005 by a joint Syrian-Hizballah operation. But then, the Iranians do not really care about a Syrian General , their concerns go far deeper .

They are aware of the fact, that too many impatient D.C. Middle East hands are expressing the view, that maybe if you cannot beat them , you should join them. Them in this case are the mad mullahs in Tehran, who seem bent on replacing the historic Fertile Crescent with an Iranian-dominated Sh'iite Crescent. Iran seems to have its way in Iraq, it is calling the shots in Yemen, and it maintains the Assad regime in Syria in face of a Sunni opposition, perhaps also Israeli desire to see Assad out. While the Israelis are maintaining public neutrality in the Syrian conflict, the Israeli air force is rumored to be behind successful air strikes against Syrian and Hezbollah targets. The Israelis do not refer in public to these rumors, but they make it known through leaks and insinuations that they are indeed doing that. The elephant in the room, which is also blamed for the accurate intelligence which used by the rebels who managed recently to eliminate some senior Iranian officers in Syria. Of all the countries which are subjected to Iranian subversion and military intervention, Syria is the most vulnerable, because if Assad falls, even if he retreats to the Alawite heartland, it is not only Syria which may be lost, but also the Hezbollah in Lebanon will come under immense pressure, and the Sunnis of Iraq will also boosted. Syria ,therefore, is extremely significant to Iran. The entire notion, promoted so carefully by Iran and tired people in DC, as well as in other Western countries, is likely to be seen in its true light, an illusion , an historic aberration.

The Sh'iite Crescent is not going to be with us for too long. Damascus could very well be the first domino to fall. This is why there was this urgent meeting in Tehran, and this is why Iranian sources spread the notion, that Syria should take strong measures against Israel. The Israel card all over again. It is to be hoped, that it is taken seriously in Jerusalem. Assad may fall, but he and his patrons in Tehran will not allow it to pass unnoticed.

.

After Damascus Falls
The Carnage Will Be On Senator McCain And His Neocon/R2P Cohorts



.
In David Stockman's opinion. However he does not seem to mention the pull out from Iraq that gave ISIS such a huge boost in power. The way you deal with terrorists that want to die for their cause is remove the support of their supporters and then kill them. Obama has failed over and over to do this. HIs drone policies have added to their support by killing many more civilians than actually terrorists. He did that because he is adverse to risk.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Syria

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Doc wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Doc wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef- ... 76248.html
Assad Is Losing and Iran as Well -- It Can Be Dangerous


Posted: 05/01/2015 11:53 am EDT Updated: 1 hour ago

Syria's Defense Minister and Deputy Commander in Chief of armed forces, Fahad Jasim Al Freij (the Commander is Bashar Assad himself), just visited Tehran. If we are to believe Sana, the mouthpiece of the Assad regime, and I, for one, do not, the parties discussed cooperation in face "of terrorism." In the eyes of Syria and Iran, the enemies of Assad are all "terrorists," which means the vast majority of the Syrian people, which opposes the Alawite-dominated regime. Be it as it may, the visit was not about "terrorists," rather it was about the survivability of the Assad regime, and with it, the severe implications of a possible collapse in Damascus over Iran's regional aspirations.

It has been the consistent view of this blog ever since the Syrian civil war started, that the regime cannot win. It is usually the case, that a process can be anticipated and predicted, not so the exact timing of it coming to an end. In that case, the exact timing and circumstances of the downfall of the Assad dynasty. Since the regime has not collapsed, some impatient pundits and policy makers in DC have started to spread the idea that Assad is coming out as the winner in the bloody civil war in his country. No, he does not, and in fact, while the final defeat may not be behind the door, there have been some major local defeats recently, which clearly indicate, that the regime and his Iranian allies are losing, and losing big time. First, the regime has proved unable to regain control in South Syria, near the borders with Israel and Jordan, an area very close to Damascus . Then there is the inability of the Syrian army and Hezbollah to maintain a steady control over the Kalamun area , dominating important supply lines along the border with Lebanon. When the Assad and Hezbollah forces took this area over, their success was hailed as an indication that they are winning the entire war. Since then, the battlefield there has turned into a killing field for the regime forces and their Lebanese allies. Then came the greatest defeat of all, the loss of the town Jisr al Soughour near Idlib in North Syria. This is a strategic loss, because this town controls the roads to the Alawite heartland. Assad home base is now in danger. Not yet a game changer, but much more than just a red light to the regime. What happens is the result of the fact, that demography starts to take its toll. There simply are many more Sunni Muslims than Alawites and Sh'iites, and also the flow of Sunni volunteers from the Sunni world outnumbers the support which the regime receives from Sh'iites mobilized by Iran. Too many times the end of the regime seemed imminent, and the end was not coming, so it will be wise not to draw dramatic conclusions this time, but the Iranians are worried and they know why.

Even within the regime, there is growing opposition to the actual Iranian domination of Syria. General Rustum Ghazala, an Alawite and a close confidant of Assad paid in his life for expressing opposition to the Iranian role. He was declared dead few days ago, just a day before he was supposed to appear in a Lebanese TV station owned by no other than Sa'ad Hariri, the son of former P.M Rafiq Hariri, who was murdered in 2005 by a joint Syrian-Hizballah operation. But then, the Iranians do not really care about a Syrian General , their concerns go far deeper .

They are aware of the fact, that too many impatient D.C. Middle East hands are expressing the view, that maybe if you cannot beat them , you should join them. Them in this case are the mad mullahs in Tehran, who seem bent on replacing the historic Fertile Crescent with an Iranian-dominated Sh'iite Crescent. Iran seems to have its way in Iraq, it is calling the shots in Yemen, and it maintains the Assad regime in Syria in face of a Sunni opposition, perhaps also Israeli desire to see Assad out. While the Israelis are maintaining public neutrality in the Syrian conflict, the Israeli air force is rumored to be behind successful air strikes against Syrian and Hezbollah targets. The Israelis do not refer in public to these rumors, but they make it known through leaks and insinuations that they are indeed doing that. The elephant in the room, which is also blamed for the accurate intelligence which used by the rebels who managed recently to eliminate some senior Iranian officers in Syria. Of all the countries which are subjected to Iranian subversion and military intervention, Syria is the most vulnerable, because if Assad falls, even if he retreats to the Alawite heartland, it is not only Syria which may be lost, but also the Hezbollah in Lebanon will come under immense pressure, and the Sunnis of Iraq will also boosted. Syria ,therefore, is extremely significant to Iran. The entire notion, promoted so carefully by Iran and tired people in DC, as well as in other Western countries, is likely to be seen in its true light, an illusion , an historic aberration.

The Sh'iite Crescent is not going to be with us for too long. Damascus could very well be the first domino to fall. This is why there was this urgent meeting in Tehran, and this is why Iranian sources spread the notion, that Syria should take strong measures against Israel. The Israel card all over again. It is to be hoped, that it is taken seriously in Jerusalem. Assad may fall, but he and his patrons in Tehran will not allow it to pass unnoticed.

.

After Damascus Falls
The Carnage Will Be On Senator McCain And His Neocon/R2P Cohorts



.
In David Stockman's opinion. However he does not seem to mention the pull out from Iraq that gave ISIS such a huge boost in power. The way you deal with terrorists that want to die for their cause is remove the support of their supporters and then kill them. Obama has failed over and over to do this. HIs drone policies have added to their support by killing many more civilians than actually terrorists. He did that because he is adverse to risk.

.

All polls show, Americans do not want any involvement in wars in Middle East and north Africa etc.

These are wars of choice, no need for American vital interest

And

America not America used 2B, no juice left for "adventures anymore".

Doc, America must now start working on gathering "goodwill" in the new emerging world .. those times that America was the only superman are over .. matter of fact, potential future American "adversary" would love America sink in "quicksand" of 1000s of yrs bottomless pit ME historical issues.

Obama doing the right thing .. Chinese want the Oil ? ? go get it .. things becoming more and more Chinese and European problem.

Pat Buchanan is right, Doc, America First

These Bolton and Goldman & company doin no service to our beloved America

Leave ME to Iranians .. no accident Pomegranates kept the "ducks" in line for 1000 yrs :lol:

.
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Doc
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Re: Syria

Post by Doc »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Doc wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Doc wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef- ... 76248.html
Assad Is Losing and Iran as Well -- It Can Be Dangerous


Posted: 05/01/2015 11:53 am EDT Updated: 1 hour ago

Syria's Defense Minister and Deputy Commander in Chief of armed forces, Fahad Jasim Al Freij (the Commander is Bashar Assad himself), just visited Tehran. If we are to believe Sana, the mouthpiece of the Assad regime, and I, for one, do not, the parties discussed cooperation in face "of terrorism." In the eyes of Syria and Iran, the enemies of Assad are all "terrorists," which means the vast majority of the Syrian people, which opposes the Alawite-dominated regime. Be it as it may, the visit was not about "terrorists," rather it was about the survivability of the Assad regime, and with it, the severe implications of a possible collapse in Damascus over Iran's regional aspirations.

It has been the consistent view of this blog ever since the Syrian civil war started, that the regime cannot win. It is usually the case, that a process can be anticipated and predicted, not so the exact timing of it coming to an end. In that case, the exact timing and circumstances of the downfall of the Assad dynasty. Since the regime has not collapsed, some impatient pundits and policy makers in DC have started to spread the idea that Assad is coming out as the winner in the bloody civil war in his country. No, he does not, and in fact, while the final defeat may not be behind the door, there have been some major local defeats recently, which clearly indicate, that the regime and his Iranian allies are losing, and losing big time. First, the regime has proved unable to regain control in South Syria, near the borders with Israel and Jordan, an area very close to Damascus . Then there is the inability of the Syrian army and Hezbollah to maintain a steady control over the Kalamun area , dominating important supply lines along the border with Lebanon. When the Assad and Hezbollah forces took this area over, their success was hailed as an indication that they are winning the entire war. Since then, the battlefield there has turned into a killing field for the regime forces and their Lebanese allies. Then came the greatest defeat of all, the loss of the town Jisr al Soughour near Idlib in North Syria. This is a strategic loss, because this town controls the roads to the Alawite heartland. Assad home base is now in danger. Not yet a game changer, but much more than just a red light to the regime. What happens is the result of the fact, that demography starts to take its toll. There simply are many more Sunni Muslims than Alawites and Sh'iites, and also the flow of Sunni volunteers from the Sunni world outnumbers the support which the regime receives from Sh'iites mobilized by Iran. Too many times the end of the regime seemed imminent, and the end was not coming, so it will be wise not to draw dramatic conclusions this time, but the Iranians are worried and they know why.

Even within the regime, there is growing opposition to the actual Iranian domination of Syria. General Rustum Ghazala, an Alawite and a close confidant of Assad paid in his life for expressing opposition to the Iranian role. He was declared dead few days ago, just a day before he was supposed to appear in a Lebanese TV station owned by no other than Sa'ad Hariri, the son of former P.M Rafiq Hariri, who was murdered in 2005 by a joint Syrian-Hizballah operation. But then, the Iranians do not really care about a Syrian General , their concerns go far deeper .

They are aware of the fact, that too many impatient D.C. Middle East hands are expressing the view, that maybe if you cannot beat them , you should join them. Them in this case are the mad mullahs in Tehran, who seem bent on replacing the historic Fertile Crescent with an Iranian-dominated Sh'iite Crescent. Iran seems to have its way in Iraq, it is calling the shots in Yemen, and it maintains the Assad regime in Syria in face of a Sunni opposition, perhaps also Israeli desire to see Assad out. While the Israelis are maintaining public neutrality in the Syrian conflict, the Israeli air force is rumored to be behind successful air strikes against Syrian and Hezbollah targets. The Israelis do not refer in public to these rumors, but they make it known through leaks and insinuations that they are indeed doing that. The elephant in the room, which is also blamed for the accurate intelligence which used by the rebels who managed recently to eliminate some senior Iranian officers in Syria. Of all the countries which are subjected to Iranian subversion and military intervention, Syria is the most vulnerable, because if Assad falls, even if he retreats to the Alawite heartland, it is not only Syria which may be lost, but also the Hezbollah in Lebanon will come under immense pressure, and the Sunnis of Iraq will also boosted. Syria ,therefore, is extremely significant to Iran. The entire notion, promoted so carefully by Iran and tired people in DC, as well as in other Western countries, is likely to be seen in its true light, an illusion , an historic aberration.

The Sh'iite Crescent is not going to be with us for too long. Damascus could very well be the first domino to fall. This is why there was this urgent meeting in Tehran, and this is why Iranian sources spread the notion, that Syria should take strong measures against Israel. The Israel card all over again. It is to be hoped, that it is taken seriously in Jerusalem. Assad may fall, but he and his patrons in Tehran will not allow it to pass unnoticed.

.

After Damascus Falls
The Carnage Will Be On Senator McCain And His Neocon/R2P Cohorts



.
In David Stockman's opinion. However he does not seem to mention the pull out from Iraq that gave ISIS such a huge boost in power. The way you deal with terrorists that want to die for their cause is remove the support of their supporters and then kill them. Obama has failed over and over to do this. HIs drone policies have added to their support by killing many more civilians than actually terrorists. He did that because he is adverse to risk.

.

All polls show, Americans do not want any involvement in wars in Middle East and north Africa etc.


These are wars of choice, no need for American vital interest

And

America not America used 2B, no juice left for "adventures anymore".

Doc, America must now start working on gathering "goodwill" in the new emerging world .. those times that America was the only superman are over .. matter of fact, potential future American "adversary" would love America sink in "quicksand" of 1000s of yrs bottomless pit ME historical issues.

Obama doing the right thing .. Chinese want the Oil ? ? go get it .. things becoming more and more Chinese and European problem.

Pat Buchanan is right, Doc, America First

These Bolton and Goldman & company doin no service to our beloved America

Leave ME to Iranians .. no accident Pomegranates kept the "ducks" in line for 1000 yrs :lol:

.
Ahhh You are the one that posted the link that says America will be destroyed if Assad falls not me. One would presume that a nations fall would be in that nations interest to stop.

As far as Obama is concerned he is an ahola If the world is on fire it public relations tends to take care of itself
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
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Re: Syria

Post by YMix »

More than 230,000 people are believed to have been killed in Syria since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011. Some 11.5 million others - more than half of the country's population - have fled their homes.
Spreading democracy by giving weapons to all kinds of durians.
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
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Endovelico
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Re: Syria

Post by Endovelico »

Russian jets in Syrian skies
Russia has begun its military intervention in Syria, deploying an aerial contingent to a permanent Syrian base, in order to launch attacks against ISIS and Islamist rebels; US stays silent.

Alex Fishman Published: 08.31.15, 15:34 / Israel News

Russian fighter pilots are expected to begin arriving in Syria in the coming days, and will fly their Russian air force fighter jets and attack helicopters against ISIS and rebel-aligned targets within the failing state.

According to Western diplomats, a Russian expeditionary force has already arrived in Syria and set up camp in an Assad-controlled airbase. The base is said to be in area surrounding Damascus, and will serve, for all intents and purposes, as a Russian forward operating base.

In the coming weeks thousands of Russian military personnel are set to touch down in Syria, including advisors, instructors, logistics personnel, technical personnel, members of the aerial protection division, and the pilots who will operate the aircraft.

Past reports have stated that the Russians were in talks to sell the Syrians a package of MiG-29 fighter jets, and Yak-130 trainer jets (which can also serve as attack aircraft.) The current makeup of the expeditionary force is still unknown, but there is no doubt that Russian pilots flying combat missions in Syrian skies will definitely change the existing dynamics in the Middle East.

The Russians do not harbor offensive intentions towards Israel or other sovereign states in the area, and their main stated goal is battling ISIS and preserving Assad's rule. However, their presence will represent a challenge to the Israeli Air Force's freedom of operation in the skies above the Middle East.

Western diplomatic sources recently reported that a series of negotiations had been held between the Russians and the Iranians, mainly focusing on ISIS and the threat it poses to the Assad regime. The infamous Iranian Quds Force commander Major General Qasem Soleimani recently visited Moscow in the framework of these talks. As a result the Russians and the Iranians reached a strategic decision: Make any effort necessary to preserve Assad's seat of power, so that Syria may act as a barrier, and prevent the spread of ISIS and Islamist backed militias into the former Soviet Islamic republics.

The Russians are not the only ones coordinating their Middle East policy with the Iranians; The US has also jumped aboard that train. American government officials have been holding intensive consultations with representatives of the Iranian regime concerning a stronger joint effort against ISIS in Iraq. It seems that the US government currently views Iran as a central and necessary force in the campaign against ISIS within Iraq.

The Iranian-American cooperation is focused on two focal points: The first being Anbar province, where the Iraqis have thus far failed to expel ISIS; and the second Mosul, where the Iraqis have yet to come up with a feasible plan to recapture the city.

Western diplomatic sources have emphasized that the Obama administration is fully aware of the Russian intent to intervene directly in Syria, but has yet to issue any reaction. The absence of a vocal opposition from the Obama administration is compounded by its cessation of calls for the dissolution of Assad's murderous regime.

This and more: The Iranians and the Russians- with the US well aware- have begun the struggle to reequip the Syrian army, which has been left in tatters by the civil war. They intend not only to train Assad's army, but to also equip it. During the entire duration of the civil war, the Russians have consistently sent a weapons supply ship to the Russian held port of Tartus in Syria on a weekly basis. The ships would bring missiles, replacement parts, and different types of ammunition for the Syrian army.

Arab media outlets have recently published reports that Syria and Russia were looking for an additional port on the Syrian coast, which will serve the Russians in their mission to hasten the pace of the Syrian rearmament.

In the meantime, Assad's army is in full scale retreat in the strategic province of Idlib. Mere days ago, a force from the Jaesh Al Fatah (A coalition or rebel groups including Jabhat al-Nusra) advanced on the Abu Duhur military airfield in southwestern Syria's Iblib province, which borders on Latika. Alwaite and Christian residents of the area have fled to the last remaining Alawite Bantustans along the country's coastline.

Even Turkey, which has so far avoided any action which would strengthen Assad, has had to come to terms with the Russian-Iranian move and the resulting American silence, leading it to launch its own bombing campaign against ISIS in Syria.

During a recent trip to Qatar, Erdogan reached understandings with the Qataris and the Saudis regarding a program to arm Muslim Brotherhood backed rebels who are fighting against ISIS, de-facto fighting both Assad and ISIS.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340 ... 68,00.html
Can this be independently confirmed?
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Endovelico
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Re: Syria

Post by Endovelico »

STRATFOR - Aug. 31

Syria


Russia could be in the process of greatly expanding its involvement in the Syrian conflict, according to sources from Israeli news source Ynet. An Aug. 31 report suggests that a Russian expeditionary force has already arrived in Syria, setting up camp in a loyalist air base near Damascus. If the reporting is accurate, it could be an early indication that Russia will throw its heft behind the Syrian air campaign against the Islamic State and the rebel-aligned factions in the country. According to Ynet, thousands of Russian military personnel are expected to arrive in Syria in the coming weeks, including military advisers and instructors as well as logistics and technical personnel. Additionally, members of the aerial protection division are expected, alongside pilots who will fly an unknown number of fighter aircraft and attack helicopters.

It is Stratfor's assessment that Russia is steadily increasing its support for Damascus. This assistance ranges from the provision of extra materiel, weaponry and equipment to the greater sharing of intelligence on rebel positions and dispositions. Russian pilots and aircraft mechanics also have a long history of serving in foreign air forces in conflict zones, either at the behest of the government or as private contractors. Evidence that Russia is taking a more combative role is already emerging. Stratfor identified Russian-language speakers in recent combat footage obtained from Syria, further corroborating the likelihood that either Russian military personnel or Russian-speaking private military contractors are now actively involved in the conflict.

Nevertheless, Stratfor has yet to see concrete evidence of expanded Russian participation in the Syrian conflict on the scale suggested by Ynet. In fact, cases of false reporting are common, especially where direct Russian support is concerned. Previous reports of MiG-31 interceptor transfers to Syria were never proved, leading to subsequent Russian denials.

When it comes to providing decisive support to Syria, Russia is torn. Moscow is trying to position itself as a credible power that can negotiate a political solution to the Syrian conflict, yet the Kremlin is also keen to bolster the forces of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. If it hopes to reach a favorable settlement, Russia must ensure that loyalist forces do not suffer devastating losses: A weak Damascus would make it harder for Russia to reach an understanding with the rebels and their backers that would safeguard its overall interests in Syria and the region. Thus, it makes sense for Moscow to bolster Syria's defenses, but a full military commitment is unlikely. Such an intervention in the conflict would undermine Russia's position as a strong mediator, calling into question Moscow's overall objectivity. Regardless, given the inherent volatility of the Syrian conflict, Stratfor will closely watch for any further signs of increased Russian involvement in the conflict.

Elsewhere in Syria, Islamic State fighters battling Syrian rebels moved closer than ever to central Damascus. Street battles reportedly raged in the Asali neighborhood of the capital's southern Qadam district over the weekend, killing at least 15 fighters as Islamic State militants seized at least two streets. The district had been relatively quiet since rebels and government forces reached a localized truce a year ago. Stratfor sources indicate that Moscow may finally have been able to get Damascus and the mainstream rebel opposition to broadly agree on elements of a political transition of power in Syria.

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/will- ... vene-syria
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Re: Syria

Post by YMix »

White House 'monitoring' reports Russian military is in Syria

Washington (AFP) - The White House on Thursday said it was closely monitoring reports that Russia is carrying out military operations in Syria, warning such actions, if confirmed, would be "destabilizing and counter-productive."

"We are aware of reports that Russia may have deployed military personnel and aircraft to Syria, and we are monitoring those reports quite closely," said spokesman Josh Earnest.

"Any military support to the Assad regime for any purpose, whether it's in the form of military personnel, aircraft supplies, weapons, or funding, is both destabilizing and counterproductive."

The comments come after images appeared on a social media account linked to Syrian fighters purporting to show Russian aircraft and drones near Idlib province.

Unconfirmed reports suggested the aircraft may have included a Russian Sukhoi 34 advanced strike fighter, which Syria is not thought to own.

A US official confirmed that "Russia has asked for clearances for military flight to Syria," but added "we don't know what their goals are."

"Evidence has been inconclusive so far as to what this activity is."

Other reports have suggested Russia has targeted Islamic State group militants, who have attacked forces loyal to Russian-backed Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

Both the White House and the Pentagon refused to say whether they had intelligence suggesting the reports were accurate.

"It's up to the Russians to explain exactly what they are doing," said Peter Cook, Pentagon spokesman.

The United States and its allies have repeatedly called for Assad's ouster, and are likely to oppose any effort that would have the effect of supporting him.

The White House said, however, that it would welcome Russia's involvement in the international coalition established to counter Islamic State and in diplomatic efforts to end the brutal civil war.
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
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Re: Syria

Post by YMix »

Exclusive: Russian troops join combat in Syria - sources

Russian forces have begun participating in military operations in Syria in support of government troops, three Lebanese sources familiar with the political and military situation there said on Wednesday.

The sources, speaking to Reuters on condition they not be identified, gave the most forthright account yet from the region of what U.S. officials say appears to be a new military buildup by Moscow, one of President Bashar al-Assad's main allies, though one of the sources said the numbers of Russians involved so far were small.

Two U.S. officials said Russia has sent two tank landing ships and additional aircraft to Syria in the past day or so and has deployed a small number of naval infantry forces.

The U.S. officials, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said the intent of Russia's military moves in Syria remained unclear. One of the officials said initial indications suggested the focus was on preparing an airfield near the port city of Latakia, an Assad stronghold.

The moves come at a time when forces of Assad's government have faced major setbacks on the battlefield in a four-year-old multi-sided civil war that has killed 250,000 people and driven half of Syria's 23 million people from their homes.

Syrian troops pulled out of a major air base on Wednesday, and a monitoring group said this meant government soldiers were no longer present at all in Idlib province, most of which slipped from government control earlier this year.

Moscow confirmed it had "experts" on the ground.

But Russia has declined to comment on the exact scale and scope of its military presence in Syria. Damascus denied Russians were involved in combat, but a Syrian official said the presence of experts had increased in the past year.

Officials in the United States, which is fighting an air war against the Islamist militant group Islamic State in Syria and also opposes Assad's government, have said in recent days that they suspect Russia is reinforcing to aid Assad.

Washington has put pressure on countries nearby to deny their air space to Russian flights, a move Moscow denounced on Wednesday as "international boorishness".

Moscow's only naval base in the Mediterranean is at Tartous on the Syrian coast in territory held by Assad, and keeping it secure would be an important strategic objective for the Kremlin.

Two of the Lebanese sources said the Russians were establishing two bases in Syria, one near the coast and one further inland which would be an operations base.

"The Russians are no longer just advisors," one of them said. "The Russians have decided to join the war against terrorism."

Another of the Lebanese sources said that so far any Russian combat role was still small: "They have started in small numbers, but the bigger force did not yet take part ... There are numbers of Russians taking part in Syria but they did not yet join the fight against terrorism strongly."

The Syrian official said: "Russian experts are always present but in the last year they have been present to a greater degree."

[...]
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Re: Syria

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And the reason Putin supports mass killer Assad = ?
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Re: Syria

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Geopolitiek. Or just politiek.
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Re: Syria

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YMix wrote:Geopolitiek. Or just politiek.
Not all politics equals sponsoring mass murderers.
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Re: Syria

Post by Alexis »

Parodite wrote:And the reason Putin supports mass killer Assad = ?
Russian interests.

Incidentally, the reason US and Europe support non-IS Jihadists is similar: American interests.

Incidentally N°2, the alternatives to Assad are worse.
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Re: Syria

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Alexis wrote:
Parodite wrote:And the reason Putin supports mass killer Assad = ?
Russian interests.

Incidentally, the reason US and Europe support non-IS Jihadists is similar: American interests.
True. Americans do what Americans do for American interests. Russian interests, Nazi interests, PolPot interests, EU interests, Stalin interests, Chinese interests. We all behave according our interests individuellement ou en-masse. The world explained in a nutshell! Well done.
Incidentally N°2, the alternatives to Assad are worse.
No. An alternative is a UN imposed no fly zone over all of syria and parts of Iraq, with 500.000+ UN boots (read: NATO and Russia) on the ground and have whatever remnants of the good parts of the FSA is left to join this UN force.

Both Assad and ISIS deserve to be smashed, included Al Nusra and some other funda-nuthead groups. Safe havens can be created in Iraq and Syria and "annexed" into permanent UN protectorates.

The West may come up with ideas like this and support it, Russia however is unlikely to join because it is the biggest selfish gang bastard in the class room.
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Re: Syria

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Parodite wrote:The West may come up with ideas like this and support it, Russia however is unlikely to join because it is the biggest selfish gang bastard in the class room.
West 'ignored Russian offer in 2012 to have Syria's Assad step aside'

Russia proposed more than three years ago that Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, could step down as part of a peace deal, according to a senior negotiator involved in back-channel discussions at the time.

Former Finnish president and Nobel peace prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari said western powers failed to seize on the proposal. Since it was made, in 2012, tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions uprooted, causing the world’s gravest refugee crisis since the second world war.

Ahtisaari held talks with envoys from the five permanent members of the UN security council in February 2012. He said that during those discussions, the Russian ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, laid out a three-point plan, which included a proposal for Assad to cede power at some point after peace talks had started between the regime and the opposition.

But he said that the US, Britain and France were so convinced that the Syrian dictator was about to fall, they ignored the proposal.

[...]

“The most intriguing was the meeting I had with Vitaly Churkin because I know this guy,” Ahtisaari recalled. “We don’t necessarily agree on many issues but we can talk candidly. I explained what I was doing there and he said: ‘Martti, sit down and I’ll tell you what we should do.’

“He said three things: One – we should not give arms to the opposition. Two – we should get a dialogue going between the opposition and Assad straight away. Three – we should find an elegant way for Assad to step aside.”

Churkin declined to comment on what he said had been a “private conversation” with Ahtisaari. The Finnish former president, however, was adamant about the nature of the discussion.

“There was no question because I went back and asked him a second time,” he said, noting that Churkin had just returned from a trip to Moscow and there seemed little doubt he was raising the proposal on behalf of the Kremlin.

Ahtisaari said he passed on the message to the American, British and French missions at the UN, but he said: “Nothing happened because I think all these, and many others, were convinced that Assad would be thrown out of office in a few weeks so there was no need to do anything.”

While Ahtisaari was still in New York, Kofi Annan was made joint special envoy on Syria for the UN and the Arab League. Ahtisaari said: “Kofi was forced to take up the assignment as special representative. I say forced because I don’t think he was terribly keen. He saw very quickly that no one was supporting anything.”

In June 2012, Annan chaired international talks in Geneva, which agreed a peace plan by which a transitional government would be formed by “mutual consent” of the regime and opposition. However, it soon fell apart over differences on whether Assad should step down. Annan resigned as envoy a little more than a month later, and Assad’s personal fate has been the principal stumbling block to all peace initiatives since then.

Last week, Britain’s foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, suggested that as part of a peace deal, Assad could remain in office during a six-month “transitional period” but the suggestion was quickly rejected by Damascus.

Western diplomats at the UN refused to speak on the record about Ahtisaari’s claim, but pointed out that after a year of the Syrian conflict, Assad’s forces had already carried out multiple massacres, and the main opposition groups refused to accept any proposal that left him in power. A few days after Ahtisaari’s visit to New York, Hillary Clinton, then US secretary of state, branded the Syrian leader a war criminal.

Sir John Jenkins – a former director of the Middle East department of the UK’s Foreign Office who was preparing to take up the post of ambassador to Saudi Arabia in the first half of 2012 – said that in his experience, Russia resisted any attempt to put Assad’s fate on the negotiating table “and I never saw a reference to any possible flexing of this position”.

Jenkins, now executive director of the Middle East branch of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in an email: “I think it is true that the general feeling was Assad wouldn’t be able to hold out. But I don’t see why that should have led to a decision to ignore an offer by the Russians to get him to go quickly, as long as that was a genuine offer.

“The weakest point is Ahtisaari’s claim that Churkin was speaking with Moscow’s authority. I think if he had told me what Churkin had said, I would have replied I wanted to hear it from [President Vladimir] Putin too before I could take it seriously. And even then I’d have wanted to be sure it wasn’t a Putin trick to draw us in to a process that ultimately preserved Assad’s state under a different leader but with the same outcome.”

A European diplomat based in the region in 2012 recalled: “At the time, the west was fixated on Assad leaving. As if that was the beginning and the end of the strategy and then all else would fall into place … Russia continuously maintained it wasn’t about Assad. But if our heart hung on it, they were willing to talk about Assad; mind: usually as part of an overall plan, process, at some point etc. Not here and now.”

However, the diplomat added: “I very much doubt the P3 [the US, UK and France] refused or dismissed any such strategy offer at the time. The questions were more to do with sequencing – the beginning or end of process – and with Russia’s ability to deliver – to get Assad to step down.”

At the time of Ahtisaari’s visit to New York, the death toll from the Syrian conflict was estimated to be about 7,500. The UN believes that toll passed 220,000 at the beginning of this year, and continues to climb. The chaos has led to the rise of Islamic State. Over 11 million Syrians have been forced out of their homes.

“We should have prevented this from happening because this is a self-made disaster, this flow of refugees to our countries in Europe,” Ahtisaari said. “I don’t see any other option but to take good care of these poor people … We are paying the bills we have caused ourselves.”
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Re: Syria

Post by Parodite »

Interesting. Here is my reading and some observations.

It has not been proved that Churkin's proposal was the official position of the Kremlin. If it were official one would expect it to come from the Kremlin much more loudly and via more channels.

Many expected Assad to fall soon. Certainly in the West, perhaps also in the Kremlin they considered it a likelyhood. Churkin's semi-official message that the opposition groups should stop fighting (of course Russia wanted that, being a staunch allie of Assad...) and that Assad and his opponents should start talking/negotiating makes sense from the Russian perspective. They just did everything to prevent Assad from falling. An official request from Moscow to Assad to step down after a transitional period however does not exist... well, at least I didn't find any source. Maybe someone can find it.

How likely would it be that 1) Moscow officially asks Assad to step down, and 2) that Assad would actually agree or crack under Russian pressure?

Given that no official request of Moscow to Assad exists to step down (if true).. in combination also with the fact that the chance that Assad would agree was nil from the get go (Assad vehemently rejected any such suggestions when they came up in UN context), it is much more likely that the official stance and assessment of Moscow was that Assad would fight till his last man anyways, but that pro-forma in a semi-official channel Mr. Churkin could launch that air-balloon... to a strategically most useful person like mr. Ahtisaari and to be used later as a wash-my-hands publicity stunt to be used against the West later. "There is war in Syria because of the West!"

Churkin is a gifted babbler. New Pravda diplomatic front-man of Putin. Revealing interview on "Charlie Rose" (jan 2014). Asked about the Ghouta chemical attack he claims that Russian investigations made clear "beyond reasonable doubt", that Assad's gvt forces "could never have done it". But as with the shoot down of MH17, claims made back and forth between the West and Russia without actual waterproof evidence available can all safely be taken with a big chunck of salt. Opposite claims about the Ghouta attack also exist, just for the record, where the claim is that most likely the Syrian gvt has done it still:

Hersh and the Red Herring

This Churkin-Ahtisaari thingie published by the inevitable Guardian only serves to massage into the Western mind that "it is all our fault" what happens in Iraq and Syria. That we are to blame for the tsunami of refugees and that Russia is kept off the hook. Bit too transparent for me. Assad committed and is committing war crimes. Russia supports him. What else is there; smoke and mirrors.
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Re: Syria

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Russian troops already engaged in battle against ISIS around Homs

Contrary to the impression conveyed by Moscow that Russian troops in Syria are not engaged in combat and that none of the sophisticated arms deliveries were destined to the Syrian army, new developments belie both these claims.

DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report that on Wednesday, September 16, Russian R-166-0.5 (ultra) high-frequency signals (HF/VHF) vehicles were spotted on Highway 4, which links Homs and Aleppo. These vehicles, called “mobile war rooms” by the IDF and Western armies, were accompanied by BTR-82 troop carriers transporting Russian marines. The R-166-0.5 enables communication with forces located on battlefields as far as 1,000 kilometers away using high frequency and ultra-high frequency signals.

The communication systems are resistant to electromagnetic jamming so Russian forces operating deep inside Syria can report to their commanders at the main Russian base in Latakia or receive orders, intelligence data and even video from drones or planes.

[...]
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Re: Syria

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.


Who Wins If Damascus Falls ?
Putin prepares to keep ISIS from power
while U.S. hawks rush to pave its way



.

What Vladimir Putin is up to in Syria makes far more sense than what Barack Obama and John Kerry appear to be up to in Syria. The Russians are flying transports bringing tanks and troops to an air base near the coastal city of Latakia to create a supply chain to provide a steady flow of weapons and munitions to the Syrian army.

Syrian President Bashar Assad, an ally of Russia, has lost half his country to ISIS and the Nusra Front, a branch of al-Qaeda. Putin fears that if Assad falls, Russia’s toehold in Syria and the Mediterranean will be lost, ISIS and al-Qaeda will be in Damascus, and Islamic terrorism will have achieved its greatest victory.

..

And who do we Americans think will wind up in Damascus if Assad falls ?

A collapse of that regime, not out of the question, would result in a terrorist takeover, the massacre of thousands of Alawite Shiites and Syrian Christians, and the flight of millions more refugees into Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey—and thence on to Europe.

Putin wants to prevent that. Don’t we ?

Why then are we spurning his offer to work with us ?

Are we still so miffed that when we helped to dump over the pro-Russian regime in Kiev, Putin countered by annexing Crimea ?

Get over it.

..

Indeed, the problem in Syria is not so much with the Russians—or Iran, Hezbollah, and Assad, all of whom see the Syrian civil war correctly as a fight to the finish against Sunni jihadis.

Our problem has been that we have let our friends—the Turks, Israelis, Saudis, and Gulf Arabs—convince us that no victory over ISIS can be achieved unless and until we bring down Assad. Once we get rid of Assad, they tell us, a grand U.S.-led coalition of Arabs and Turks can form up and march in to dispatch ISIS.

This is neocon nonsense.


Those giving us this advice are the same “cakewalk war” crowd who told us how Iraq would become a democratic model for the Middle East once Saddam Hussein was overthrown and how Moammar Gadhafi’s demise would mean the rise of a pro-Western Libya.


When have these people ever been right ?

What is the brutal reality in this Syrian civil war, which has cost 250,000 lives and made refugees of half the population, with 4 million having fled the country? After four years of sectarian and ethnic slaughter, Syria will most likely never again be reconstituted along the century-old map lines of Sykes-Picot. Partition appears inevitable. And though Assad may survive for a time, his family’s days of ruling Syria are coming to a close.

Yet it is in America’s interest not to have Assad fall—if his fall means the demoralization and collapse of his army, leaving no strong military force standing between ISIS and Damascus.

Indeed, if Assad falls now, the beneficiary is not going to be those pro-American rebels who have defected or been routed every time they have seen combat and who are now virtually extinct. The victors will be ISIS and the Nusra Front, which control most of Syria between the Kurds in the northeast and the Assad regime in the southwest.

Syria could swiftly become a strategic base camp and sanctuary of the Islamic State from which to pursue the battle for Baghdad, plot strikes against America and launch terror attacks across the region and around the world.

Prediction: If Assad falls and ISIS rises in Damascus, a clamor will come—and not only from the Lindsey Grahams and John McCains—to send a U.S. army to invade and drive ISIS out, while the neocons go scrounging around to find a Syrian Ahmed Chalabi in northern Virginia. Then this nation will be convulsed in a great war debate over whether to send that U.S. army to invade Syria and destroy ISIS.

And while our Middle Eastern and European allies sit on the sidelines and cheer on the American intervention, this country will face an anti-war movement the likes of which have not been seen since Col. Lindbergh spoke for America First.

In making ISIS, not Assad, public enemy No. 1, Putin has it right. It is we Americans who are the mystery inside an enigma now.

.


Makes sense to meeeee


Folks, look back last 20 yrs .. everything NEOCONS did lead to a colossal catastrophe for our beloved America, in fact, present situation America is in is direct result of NEOCON stupidity .. Neocon take advantage of American Joe


Thanks G_D Putin minding the store.

And

Francis not Francis used 2B .. bent to Homo mafia .. only hope left is Russian Orthodoxy :lol:

Amen

.
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Re: Syria

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Syria crisis: US plans Russia military talks, Kerry says

The US is seeking military talks with Russia on Syria, and hopes they could take place "very shortly", Secretary of State John Kerry has said.

The US and Russia differ sharply on Syria, and Washington has been concerned about Russia's increased military presence there.

"We're looking for ways in which to find a common ground," said Mr Kerry.

Moscow has meanwhile said that any request from Syria to send troops would be "discussed and considered".

"But it is difficult to talk about this hypothetically," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added.

Arriving in London for talks with the UAE, Mr Kerry told reporters: "The president believes that military-to-military conversation is an important next step and hopefully will take place very shortly."

Russia's foreign ministry offered such talks earlier in this week.

A spokeswoman said on Friday: "We have never refused dialogue with the United States. (We) are open to it now on all matters of mutual interest, including Syria," according to Reuters.

The two sides have long disagreed over Syria. Russia has been an ally of the Syrian government throughout the four-year civil war, while the US sees President Assad's removal as essential to resolving the crisis.

Moscow has increased its presence in the country just as the regime is losing ground to rebel groups. Russia says it is helping Syria fight Islamic State militants.

US officials accuse Russia of attempting to establish an air base at Latakia, raising the possibility of air combat missions.

In a separate development, a Russian human rights body said it has been contacted by Russian soldiers who fear being sent to fight in Syria.

Any secret deployment of troops to Syria would be illegal, said Sergei Krivenko of the Russian Human Rights Council.
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Re: Syria

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

YMix wrote:
Syria crisis: US plans Russia military talks, Kerry says

The US is seeking military talks with Russia on Syria, and hopes they could take place "very shortly", Secretary of State John Kerry has said.

The US and Russia differ sharply on Syria, and Washington has been concerned about Russia's increased military presence there.

"We're looking for ways in which to find a common ground," said Mr Kerry.

Moscow has meanwhile said that any request from Syria to send troops would be "discussed and considered".

"But it is difficult to talk about this hypothetically," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added.

Arriving in London for talks with the UAE, Mr Kerry told reporters: "The president believes that military-to-military conversation is an important next step and hopefully will take place very shortly."

Russia's foreign ministry offered such talks earlier in this week.

A spokeswoman said on Friday: "We have never refused dialogue with the United States. (We) are open to it now on all matters of mutual interest, including Syria," according to Reuters.

The two sides have long disagreed over Syria. Russia has been an ally of the Syrian government throughout the four-year civil war, while the US sees President Assad's removal as essential to resolving the crisis.

Moscow has increased its presence in the country just as the regime is losing ground to rebel groups. Russia says it is helping Syria fight Islamic State militants.

US officials accuse Russia of attempting to establish an air base at Latakia, raising the possibility of air combat missions.

In a separate development, a Russian human rights body said it has been contacted by Russian soldiers who fear being sent to fight in Syria.

Any secret deployment of troops to Syria would be illegal, said Sergei Krivenko of the Russian Human Rights Council.

NYT : Secretary of State John Kerry said the Obama administration was prepared to begin military talks with the Kremlin on the crisis.

“The president believes that a mil-to-mil conversation is an important next step,” Mr. Kerry said, “and I think, hopefully, will take place very shortly.”

Shortly after Mr. Kerry spoke, the Pentagon announced that Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter had spoken by telephone with Sergei K. Shoigu, the Russian minister of defense. It was Mr. Carter’s first discussion with his Russian counterpart since he became defense secretary seven months ago. The two men agreed to continue discussions on “mechanisms for deconfliction” in Syria, the Pentagon said in a statement.

The Pentagon described it as “a constructive conversation.” The Pentagon press secretary, Peter Cook, said the two men had “talked about areas where the United States and Russia’s perspectives overlap, and areas of divergence.”

You see now the result of listening to silly Neocons and Zionist

America should have listened to Iran and Russia.

.
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Re: Syria

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Deconfliction is my vocabulary word for the day.
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Re: Syria

Post by Parodite »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:America should have listened to Iran and Russia.
No one should listen to either of them. Sick governments.

Iran, the Islamo-fascist dictatorship with their petty thought police ready to arrest you for not properly tying your shoes and your girlfriend having her coat not closed up enough. And everything worse from there and on up. (I'm just talking about Khamenei and his military gunta HP. The Iranian people deserve so much better! Wonderful culture and history. And in case you doubt: of course the U.S. has been misbehaving badly with Mossadeq etc.. many reasons for Iran to distrust the U.S. but they are stuck and blinded by their old (legitmate) grievances and their dark 7th century religious delusions. Sleepwalkers.)

Russia, not only supporting mass murderer Assad... but also kissing up with the worst criminal regime hell nightmare on earth at this moment: North Korea.

m3gQpbrA2zA

North Korea and Russia forge ‘year of friendship’ pariah alliance
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Re: Syria

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The best deconfliction would if the US and Russia join forces and rid Syria of Assad, IS and the other murderous gangs. As long as the US and Russia continue their petty geo-political dick contest there is no hope for a good ending.
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Russia securing the Latakia air base

Post by Alexis »

Russia Expands Fleet in Syria With Jets That Can Attack Targets on Ground
(US military sources, but seemingly not denied by Russians)

Good performance of a quick deployment.

This is becoming a serious force:
- For attack of surface (Jihadist) forces: 24 ground attack jets, that is 12 Su-25 the Russian equivalent to America's A-10 + 12 heavier Su-24
- To protect the base: 4 Su-30 air superiority jets + at least 2 Pantsir medium range SA batteries + 9 main tanks T-90 + 500 Marines + 20 transport / attack helicopters. The latter could also be used for small scale raids behind Jihadist front

We'll see if Russia goes further, although I'm not sure it would be so easy to expand much further the deployment if at this single base. If this deployment is confirmed, this force will make Russia the second contributor to the anti-Jihadist coalition, only the US contributing more.

Anyway, what is worrying the US is not that Russia would attack Jihadists, but that Russia would not only attack the "bad" ones - Islamic State - but also the "good" ones - those who are supported by Gulf allies of the US and make the largest part of the anti-Assad "rebel" coalition.
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