It's 1914 again

Past and present. You can't make this stuff up.
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Torchwood
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It's 1914 again

Post by Torchwood »

We are going to hear a lot about the "Guns of August" this year. Apparently JFK read the well known book of that title just before the Cuban crisis - maybe just as well.

A globalising world, prosperity linked by free trade, a century of more or less global peace, surely it could not happen? If you are in a pessimistic mood, the parallels are clear

The Middle East is not so worrying to my mind, let them all kill themselves, and to paraphrase Bismarck about the Balkans "The Middle East is not worth the bones of a single US Marine". China versus its neighbours is another matter; a rising power, thoroughly modern yet with an atavistic nationalism fuelled by a historical sense of grievance - now where have we seen that before?
Mr. Perfect
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Re: It's 1914 again

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Add to that the allies of convenience Russia and Iran and you have the new axis powers. Interestingly this was all foretold in a book.

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Torchwood
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Re: It's 1914 again

Post by Torchwood »

Mr. Perfect wrote:Add to that the allies of convenience Russia and Iran and you have the new axis powers.
versus the Allies: USA plus the "ring of fire" from Japan to India. While Japan is like France in 1914 (the enemy is clear, but we need allies), India is like the UK, it doesn't really want to get involved or take sides but China's behaviour will make it impossible not to do so.

Europe will try to stay neutral, make all sorts of annoying moralistic exhortations, but will eventually be forced in on the allied side, in the modern equivalent of 1917....

Let's hope that it stays at the level of computer games, or at worst another Cold War with proxy small conflicts. At least, whatever one may think of Obama and the CCP politburo, they are less doltish than the results of imperial inbreeding around in 1914. On the other hand, 1914 does not resonate with east Asians, who gained from the conflict (WW2 is another matter).
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Typhoon
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Re: It's 1914 again

Post by Typhoon »

Contrary to what many believe . . .

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

While I don't want to wish anyone trouble, given the 1914 scenario, it would be better if China were preoccupied with sorting out it's internal issues
Local Gov't Debt Nears 20 Trillion Yuan, CASS Says

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said in a report published on December 23 that the amount of local government debt at the end of 2012 was 19.94 trillion yuan. That and central government debt totaled 27.7 trillion yuan, or 53 percent of the year's GDP. The total was 111.6 trillion yuan, or 215 percent of that year's GDP, if the debt owned by financial institutions, non-financial companies and individuals is added. The ratio means the country has taken on too much debt and needs to deleverage, the report says. It also said the value of the country's net assets rose from 165.8 trillion yuan in 2007 to 304.5 trillion yuan in 2011.
Source

In this case, a burst bubble economy.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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