Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Now, what news on the Rialto?

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Sat May 28, 2016 7:37 am

i always use the self checkout if available, my quirk is buying local brands in preference to overseas or generic ones.
noddy
 
Posts: 5418
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:09 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Simple Minded » Sat May 28, 2016 1:58 pm

noddy wrote:i always use the self checkout if available, my quirk is buying local brands in preference to overseas or generic ones.


I suspect for most it will boil down to a price and quality of service decision. I avoid the automated checkout at Home Depot like the plague, because who ever designed/installed the automation did not select the right sensors or adjust them properly.

Then again, when I encounter the checkout person with the Special Snowflake self-esteem, who can't speak English even though they were obviously born and raised here, or who can't do enough math in their head to make change, I wonder "Hmmm, maybe those sensors are finally adjusted properly. Next time.

We are still early in the cycle. I have not heard any "Buy Human!" or Luddite advertising slogans yet.

Buy local campaigns have been in place over here for a few years. But not to the extent of the "Buy American!" campaigns of the 70's/80's.

Since malevolent ET's are not stepping up to the plate, maybe automation/AI will be the threat that cause "Humanity" to form a big union of "Us" against scab machinery.
Enquiring minds want to know. And if we don’t know, or can't know, then we’ll just imagine or project.
Simple Minded
 
Posts: 6311
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:24 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Thu Jun 02, 2016 2:56 pm

FT | Corporate bonds join negative yield club

More than $36bn of corporate bonds with a short-term maturity currently trade with a sub-zero yield as the European Central Bank starts buying debt sold by companies next week.

In the wake of the ECB announcing this policy shift back in March, eurozone corporate bond yields have fallen while debt sales from companies have accelerated.


Interesting times, indeed.

Especially for someone just old enough to [vaguely] recall the now astronomical yields on bonds in the inflationary 1970's.
All the world's a stage.
User avatar
Typhoon
 
Posts: 14575
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:21 pm

All the world's a stage.
User avatar
Typhoon
 
Posts: 14575
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:56 am

the doomer pron on australia is also ramping up.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/06 ... -40-cents/

Canada represents, in some ways, the antithesis of the historical government budgetary response as experienced in Australia. While Canada isn’t at zero rates, the target of 0.5% offers a realistic target for the RBA over the next two years, especially if commodities find a new low or China has a real misstep. Interesting parallels can be drawn from their experience, given that they are a very similar country in a number of ways, including their reliance on commodity markets for growth.

Canada cut rates in late 2008 with the rest of the world to 0.5% just as Lehman went under and oil prices briefly traded at $40. Immediately after this the current account deficit moved from being in surplus to deficit and hasn’t recovered since. Most of this is attributable to oil prices cratering of course, but this happened to Australia too. The Canadians are in a far better situation than Australia though, and it’s a result of restraint in the past rather than any choices available to Canada today.

The key difference was that Canada didn’t borrow against the windfall given by rising commodity prices through the strong days in the 2000s, choosing to take the income gains from rising commodity prices and become a creditor to the rest of the world. As a result while Australia owes the rest of the world debts totalling 67% of GDP, Canada is in a situation where the world owes them 15% of GDP and not the other way around. This saving has meant that they are in a far better position to weather a large downturn in commodity prices while the rest of the economy rebalances away from the positive income effect from the temporary boom.
noddy
 
Posts: 5418
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:09 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Sat Jun 18, 2016 2:55 am

How Much Debt Is Too Much? Examples From Around the World

The biggest problem surrounding the central banks’ monetary policies revolves around the corporations that have seen their share prices skyrocket in the years after the recession. As of June 1, 2016, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) has appreciated by 33% from its 2007 peak; however, much of this growth has been artificial, which is a result of financial engineering in the form of stock buybacks and dividend increases. In 2015, business debt, minus off-balance-sheet liabilities, had increased to $793 billion, with the majority of that money being allocated to financial operations and less than 12% going to actual private domestic investment.

This presents a big problem to the U.S. economy. When business debt is appropriated to financial engineering, it does not develop an income stream to honor interest and repayment requirements. Such debt usage fails to support productivity growth, employment, higher wages or economic growth. Due to this, the economy weakens as debt grows.
All the world's a stage.
User avatar
Typhoon
 
Posts: 14575
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Zack Morris » Sat Aug 13, 2016 11:56 pm

Typhoon wrote:FT | Bill Gross warns over $10tn negative-yield bond pile

"A supernova waiting to explode."


Nobody knows what's going to happen, least of all Bill Gross whose money-making talents evaporated a few years ago at the same coincidental time that most old-school money managers became irrelevant.
User avatar
Zack Morris
 
Posts: 2555
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2011 8:52 am
Location: Bayside High School

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:59 pm

Zack Morris wrote:
Typhoon wrote:FT | Bill Gross warns over $10tn negative-yield bond pile

"A supernova waiting to explode."


Zack Morris wrote:Nobody knows what's going to happen,


You're probably right about this part, as negative yields are terra incognita.

Zack Morris wrote:least of all Bill Gross whose money-making talents evaporated a few years ago at the same coincidental time that most old-school money managers became irrelevant.


Do you have evidence or is this yet another unsupported assertion?
All the world's a stage.
User avatar
Typhoon
 
Posts: 14575
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Zack Morris » Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:28 pm

Typhoon wrote:
Zack Morris wrote:
Typhoon wrote:FT | Bill Gross warns over $10tn negative-yield bond pile

"A supernova waiting to explode."


Zack Morris wrote:Nobody knows what's going to happen,


You're probably right about this part, as negative yields are terra incognita.

Zack Morris wrote:least of all Bill Gross whose money-making talents evaporated a few years ago at the same coincidental time that most old-school money managers became irrelevant.


Do you have evidence or is this yet another unsupported assertion?


Gross's portfolio performance has been disastrous the past few years. That's partly why the company he founded fired his ass.
User avatar
Zack Morris
 
Posts: 2555
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2011 8:52 am
Location: Bayside High School

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:01 pm

Zack Morris wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Zack Morris wrote:
Typhoon wrote:FT | Bill Gross warns over $10tn negative-yield bond pile

"A supernova waiting to explode."


Zack Morris wrote:Nobody knows what's going to happen,


You're probably right about this part, as negative yields are terra incognita.

Zack Morris wrote:least of all Bill Gross whose money-making talents evaporated a few years ago at the same coincidental time that most old-school money managers became irrelevant.


Do you have evidence or is this yet another unsupported assertion?


Gross's portfolio performance has been disastrous the past few years. That's partly why the company he founded fired his ass.


Perhaps.

However, every time someone declares that it's a new new economy, I'm skeptical.
All the world's a stage.
User avatar
Typhoon
 
Posts: 14575
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby YMix » Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:34 am

Any thoughts on the trade war going on between USA and Germany?
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
User avatar
YMix
 
Posts: 4330
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 4:53 am
Location: Department of Congruity - Report any outliers here

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:46 am

isnt this part of the ever escalating 'who can devalue their debt first' game we have been discussing for some time now ?

its only war for us poor suckers on fixed incomes with fixed assets - for the main players its just business as usual.
noddy
 
Posts: 5418
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:09 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby YMix » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:59 am

It looks like a "who can slap the biggest fine" war. The EU went after Google and Apple, while the USA retaliated against Volkswagen and Deutsche Bank.
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
User avatar
YMix
 
Posts: 4330
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 4:53 am
Location: Department of Congruity - Report any outliers here

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:27 pm

YMix wrote:It looks like a "who can slap the biggest fine" war. The EU went after Google and Apple, while the USA retaliated against Volkswagen and Deutsche Bank.


Good point.
All the world's a stage.
User avatar
Typhoon
 
Posts: 14575
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:54 am

isnt apple an irish company ? :)
noddy
 
Posts: 5418
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:09 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby YMix » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:35 am

The EU does not believe in "Luck of the Irish Tax System".
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
User avatar
YMix
 
Posts: 4330
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 4:53 am
Location: Department of Congruity - Report any outliers here

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Simple Minded » Mon Oct 10, 2016 1:13 am

The sky, it still be falling.......

https://www.ft.com/content/e4743282-8ca ... ada1d123b1

Should the subtitle be "Hey, We're comfortable with out own incompetence and ignorance, but those other people.... they make us nervous."
Enquiring minds want to know. And if we don’t know, or can't know, then we’ll just imagine or project.
Simple Minded
 
Posts: 6311
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:24 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby kmich » Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:04 pm

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mr. Trump’s Economic Policies - Moody's Analytics

Introduction

This paper assesses the macroeconomic consequences of presidential candidate Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies. These include his policies on taxes and government spending, immigration, and international trade....

Conclusion

Presidential candidates often put forward proposals that are as much political statements as firm policy positions. No one expects that their proposals will get through the legislative process and into law fully intact. But while the policy proposals put forward by candidates are generally well overstated, they are a statement on their philosophy and priorities.

Mr. Trump’s economic policy proposals should be considered through this lens. He has suggested that he might be willing to bend his position on taxes and perhaps tariffs. He has even intimated that his policy statements are simply a negotiating stance— he is asking for a lot more up front than he ultimately expects to get.

Having said this, what he is asking for is fiscally unsound. His tax and spending proposals will result in very large deficits and a much higher debt load. A future Congress may be able to rein in this profligacy, but it will not be easy, as there is a gulf between what he says he wants on taxes and spending and what it will take to make the budget arithmetic work.

He is also very suspicious of globalization. His willingness to threaten higher tariffs on U.S. trading partners and his sharp criticism of major trade deals signal a reversal on the long-running expansion of U.S. trade and foreign investment. Requiring millions of undocumented immigrants to leave the country also signals less openness to the rest of the world.

The upshot of Mr. Trump’s economic policy positions under almost any scenario is that the U.S. economy will be more isolated and diminished.


Image
User avatar
kmich
 
Posts: 667
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:46 am

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:49 am

Bank Underground | Venetians, Volcker and Value-at-Risk: 8 centuries of bond market reversals

[Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge – or support – prevailing policy orthodoxies. ]
All the world's a stage.
User avatar
Typhoon
 
Posts: 14575
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:45 am

.


20% of Americans didn't work during Obama era


.
.. number of Americans not in the labor force has increased by 14,573,000, 18.09%, since January 2009, when Barack Obama became president of the U.S.

In December, according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, a record 95,102,000 Americans were not in the labor force, or 47,000 more than in November, and the labor force participation rate was 62.7%, a tenth of a point higher than in November.

The participation rate dropped to a 38-year low of 62.4% on Obama's watch, in September 2015. It was only 3-tenths of a point higher than that of the prior month.

Those who are no longer looking for work, so-called discouraged workers, are not counted in the official unemployment statistics, according to the BLS.

.


.
User avatar
Heracleum Persicum
 
Posts: 8693
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 7:38 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Wed Feb 01, 2017 4:03 pm

Attachments
1000x-1.png
1000x-1.png (238.01 KiB) Viewed 354 times
User avatar
Heracleum Persicum
 
Posts: 8693
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 7:38 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:10 am

MW-FG386_Larges_20170222162407_MG.jpg
MW-FG386_Larges_20170222162407_MG.jpg (76.29 KiB) Viewed 329 times




http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ab ... 2017-02-22



.
User avatar
Heracleum Persicum
 
Posts: 8693
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 7:38 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:08 pm

FT | The rise of CTAs - managed futures funds

Portfolio insurance 1987 redux?
All the world's a stage.
User avatar
Typhoon
 
Posts: 14575
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm

“too late” to prevent Australian “economic apocalypse”

Postby noddy » Fri Jul 07, 2017 6:02 am

doom porn is in overdrive right now over here - the recession is grinding on and on and resources are getting slim.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/0 ... pocalypse/

SIGN 1: TIGHTENING MONETARY POLICY
SIGN 2: INVERTED AND FLATTENING YIELD CURVES
SIGN 3: SOVEREIGN AND CORPORATE DEFAULTS
SIGN 4: FALLING CONFIDENCE AND CREDIT DOWNGRADES
SIGN 5: EMERGING CHINESE CREDIT CRISIS
SIGN 6: SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN VALUE OF CRYPTO CURRENCIES
SIGN 7: DISCREDITED AUSTRALIAN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY


as per one of the comments - we have sustained all this despite the madness for ages now because of middle class fleeing india, china etc and bringing in money.

the moment that tap stops then all hell will break loose.
noddy
 
Posts: 5418
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:09 pm

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:29 pm

Probably.

PR China has yet to experience a "Sell, Mortimer, sell" economic downturn since Deng proclaimed that klepto-capitalist is the correct path forward.

It will happen. As to when is anyone's guess.
All the world's a stage.
User avatar
Typhoon
 
Posts: 14575
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Finance and Economics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest