Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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Miss_Faucie_Fishtits
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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You can checkout any time you like...........

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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by YMix »

Apple Deleted Rivals’ Songs from Users’ iPods

Apple deleted music that some iPod owners had downloaded from competing music services from 2007 to 2009 without telling users, attorneys for consumers told jurors in a class-action antitrust suit against Apple Wednesday.

“You guys decided to give them the worst possible experience and blow up” a user’s music library, attorney Patrick Coughlin said in U.S. District Court in Oakland, Calif.

When a user who had downloaded music from a rival service tried to sync an iPod to the user’s iTunes library, Apple would display an error message and instruct the user to restore the factory settings, Coughlin said. When the user restored the settings, the music from rival services would disappear, he said.

Apple directed the system “not to tell users the problem,” Coughlin said.

To plaintiffs in the case, the move showed how Apple had stifled competition for music players and downloads. They are seeking $350 million in damages in the decade-old suit, claiming Apple’s actions forced them to pay more for iPods. The damages could be tripled under antitrust laws.

Apple contends the moves were legitimate security measures. Apple security director Augustin Farrugia testified that Apple did not offer a more detailed explanation because, “We don’t need to give users too much information,” and “We don’t want to confuse users.”

Farrugia told the court that hackers with names like “DVD Jon” and “Requiem” made Apple “very paranoid” about protecting iTunes. Updates that deleted non-Apple music files were intended to protect consumers from those system break-ins. “The system was totally hacked,” he said.

Apple declined to comment outside of the court testimony.

Steve Jobs, the late Apple co-founder, also showed concern about hacking, according to evidence in the case. “Someone is breaking into our house,” Mr. Jobs said of music pirates, according to an email by Apple software chief Eddy Cue listed as an exhibit.

Cue and Phil Schiller, Apple’s head of marketing, are expected to testify this week, and portions of a videotaped 2011 deposition of Jobs are expected to be played.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

I used to listen to WTAI because at 11 P.M they would play an entire album and I could tape it. Got some good, obscure music that way. Doug Sahm Band, Nils Lofgren, John Cale. Even Martin Mull.

The third song on the album was particularly important. It was the artist's statement. The first song on the B side was almost as important, but still a distant second.

The iPad really screwed up the whole idea of the musician as an artist. It disintegrated the entire planned 50 minute emotional experience into fragments without context. I used to degrade "Bubble Gum" music but today all pop music is little ephemeral confections. It's a snack but not a meal.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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Bank for International Settlements sounds alarm over dollar
The Basel-based organisation added that there were increasing signs of fragility in financial markets, despite renewed hopes for economic growth, pointing to the recent stress in the $12.3tn US Treasury market that serves as the bedrock of the global financial system.

“To my mind, these events underline the fragility — dare I say growing fragility — hidden beneath the markets’ buoyancy,” said Claudio Borio, the head of the BIS’s monetary and economic department.
The dollar hit post-recession highs against some currencies on Friday after a blockbuster employment report that showed 321,000 jobs had been created in November.

Emerging market companies have been borrowing heavily via the issuance of dollar securities, a phenomenon the BIS has been following closely.
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Nonc Hilaire
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.


Most INNOVATIVE in the world countries


.
In this competition Iran is the fat kid who wears penny loafers to gym class.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:.


Most INNOVATIVE in the world countries


.
In this competition Iran is the fat kid who wears penny loafers to gym class.

.

NH , in economy, charting income or GDP or other metrics, the data is always corrected for inflation

In that "INNOVATIVE" ranking of countries, there is one thing they "intentionally" did not do (correct the ranking)

In countries like Germany, Switzerland, Japan, China etc, those doing the INNOVATION are their own ethnic entrepreneurs and scientist .. In Japan all those INNOVATIVE stuff done by ethnic Japanese .. same in Germany or Switzerland

Not so in America

In America, talent arriving from Iranian Sharif university in New York JFK airport, gets his Green Card at the entry, and is counted as American from that date .. Who invented Lazer ? ? .. many American scientist and talent and innovators are Indian, Chinese, Iranian
"Top 100 Living Geniuses"

Ali Javan was born in Tehran to ethnic Azari parents from Tabriz
Yes, Azarbaijani, same city as our Azari :lol:

NASA is dominated by Iranian scientist .. google it

Firouz Naderi .. Director for Solar System Exploration at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)

.

43% of NASA scientists are Iranians

According to the space magazine, 43% of NASA scientists are Iranian including two women.

some of them are :

Proffessor Mohammad Jamshidi , internal programm manager of NASA Space station
Firuz Nader , Executive manager at Mars NASA Space Station
Hamid Berenhi , member of scientists of NASA space station
Qasem Asrar,NASA Space Station Board Member
Kazem Omidvar,Member of scientists of NASA's space station
Reza Qaffarian,Engineer of Jet Propulsion Laboratory of NASA space station
Proffessor Parviz Moein,Head of Central Research Institute of the University of NASA
Proffessor Samad Hayati,NASA Space Station Board Member
Abdolhamid Karimi, works on space missiles in NASA
Dr Moqhadam(female) works on radars in NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory
But, those Iranian scientist known only to Iranian community as Iranian scientist .. for American public, and statistic, they show as American

In that sense, that ranking is crooked

.
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Nonc Hilaire
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Just teasing you, HP. The concept of a 'most innovative' country is ludicrous.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:Just teasing you, HP. The concept of a 'most innovative' country is ludicrous.

:)



.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

your dead right azari, once people leave their stagnan,authoritarian,oppressive home countries and move to a free country they can be much more innovative, well spotted.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

also just joking if not apparent.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Apple Co-Founder Traded His Shares for Gold

The difference between digging stuff up, only to bury it again somewhere else, and creating value-added products.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Miss_Faucie_Fishtits »

Typhoon wrote:Apple Co-Founder Traded His Shares for Gold

The difference between digging stuff up, only to bury it again somewhere else, and creating value-added products.

Feel free to consider her a three-patty flaming cheeseburger, but on this she makes sense:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dFVFJ0 ... fgPc1m4cR3

You're gonna hafta get nine minutes into the first presentation before you get to the..... eh,hem........ 'money' shot........;).........
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

Typhoon wrote:Apple Co-Founder Traded His Shares for Gold

The difference between digging stuff up, only to bury it again somewhere else, and creating value-added products.
silicon graphics or other companies of that era that didnt survive ... not so much :)

yay for 20/20 hindsight.

Defunct[edit]
Acorn Computers
Alliant Computer Systems - Ceased operations in 1992.
Altos Computer Systems - acquired by Acer in 1990.
Amdahl Corporation - A wholly owned subsidiary of Fujitsu since 1997.
Amstrad
Apollo Computer - Acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 1989.
Apricot Computers - ceased operations in 1999.
Ardent Computer - Merged with Stellar Computer to form Stardent in 1989.
AST Computers, LLC - Exited the computer market in 2001.
Atari Corporation
Bell & Howell
Beltron Computers[7]
Burroughs - Merged with Sperry to form Unisys in 1986.
Celerity Computing - Acquired by Floating Point Systems in 1988.
Commodore International - declared bankruptcy in 1994.
Compaq - Acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 2002. Defunct as a subsidiary as of 2010.
CompuAdd - filed for bankruptcy in 1993.
Computer Automation
Control Data Corporation (CDC) - Shrank as units were spun off from 1988 to 1992; remainder is now Ceridian.
Convex Computer - purchased by Hewlett-Packard in 1995
Corona Data Systems - among the original "IBM PC Compatible" clone makers
Cromemco
Data General - was one of the first minicomputer firms from the late 1960s, purchased by EMC in 1999 for its innovative RAID array storage.
Digital Equipment Corporation - Acquired by Compaq in 1998.
Durango Systems Corporation merged with Molecular Systems in 1982 which went bankrupt in 1984
Eagle Computer - ceased operations in 1986.
Eckert–Mauchly Computer - Acquired by Remington Rand in 1950.
Egenera
Elonex — Sells tablets (as of 2011)
Encore Computer - Acquired by Gores Technology Group in 1998 and renamed to Encore Real Time Computing, which Gores then sold to Compro Computer Services in 2002.
English Electric - merged into International Computers Limited.
eMachines - Discontinued by its current owner Acer in 2012.
Everex - US subsidiary closed its doors in 2009.
Evesham - merged into TIME Computers.
Franklin Computer Corporation - exited computer hardware business and reorganized into Franklin Electronic Publishers.
Gateway - Acquired by Acer in October 2007
General Electric - Sold its computer division to Honeywell in 1970.
Gericom
Gould Electronics - Sold its computer division to Nippon Mining in 1988, who in turn sold it to Encore Computer later that year.
Honeywell - Sold its computer division to Groupe Bull in 1991.
International Computers and Tabulators (ICT) - merged into International Computers Limited.
International Computers Limited (ICL) - now part of Fujitsu.
Kaypro - filed for bankruptcy in 1992.
Korea Data Systems (KDS) - merged with eMachines
Leading Edge - Mid '80s leader in PC Clone for the masses - Manufacturing done first by Mitsubishi then Daewoo
Luxor AB - Ended in 1986 after being acquired by Nokia the previous year.
Magnavox
Magnuson Computer Systems - filed for bankruptcy in early 1980s.
Maxdata (Germany) - Insolvent in 2008; warranty for existing products taken over by then the Swiss Belinea AG (see Belinea), now owned by Bluechip Computer. Warranty for Belinea products purchased before 1 November 2008 is not serviced anymore by Bluechip Computer.[4]
Mitsubishi Electronics - Closed computer systems division in 1990 Manufactured systems for Leading Edge and Sperry-Unisys
MPC (formerly MicronPC) - Filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on November 7, 2008. Efforts at reorganization failed.
Multiflow Computer - Ceased operations in 1990.
NeXT - acquired by Apple Computer in 1996.
Nixdorf Computer - Acquired by Siemens in 1991, renamed Siemens Nixdorf Informationssysteme AG.
Northgate Computer Systems - Acquired by Lan Plus in 1997, after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 1994; Lan Plus later renamed itself Northgate Innovations.
Osborne Computer - Ceased operations in 1985; rights to the Osbourne brand were sold to Mikrolog.
Packard Bell - is now a subsidiary of Acer.
PC Brand - acquired by Tandon Corporation in 1991.[5]
Philips Data Systems - acquired by Digital Equipment Corporation in 1992.
Processor Technology - Ceased operations in 1979.
Psystar - Under 2009 permanent injunction to stop selling computers with Apple's Mac OS X operating system. Psystar's web site has disappeared.
Pyramid Technology - Acquired by Siemens in 1995.
Quantex Microsystems - Bankrupt in 2000.
Radio Shack
RCA - Exited the computer business in 1971; Sperry Rand took over RCA's installed base in 1972.
Research Machines - Exited manufacturing in late 2013. Brand continues as a services company.
Remington Rand - Acquired by Sperry to form Sperry Rand in 1955.
Sanyo
Scientific Data Systems - Acquired by Xerox in 1969.
Sequent Computer Systems - Acquired by IBM in 1999.
Sharp Corporation
Siemens - Computer division (Siemens Nixdorf Informationssysteme AG) merged 50/50 with Fujitsu into Fujitsu Siemens Computers in 1999, then Siemens half bought by Fujitsu in 2009.
Silicon Graphics - acquired by Rackable Systems in 2009, when Rackable then re-branded to SGI.
Sinclair Research - acquired by Amstrad in 1986.
Solbourne Computer - Acquired by Deloitte Consulting in 2008.
Soyo
Sperry - Merged with Burroughs to form Unisys in 1986.
Sperry Rand - Dropped "Rand" from its name in 1978 and continued as Sperry.
Stardent - Ceased operations in 1992.
Stellar Computer - Merged with Ardent Computer to form Stardent in 1989.
Sun Microsystems - Acquired by Oracle Corporation in 2010.
Systems Engineering Laboratories - Acquired by Gould Electronics in 1981 and became Gould's computer division.
Tandon Corporation
Tandy Corporation - Previous parent company of RadioShack, produced the TRS-80 and Tandy 1000 and 2000 IBM PC compatible computers. Sold their computer division to AST Computers in the early 1990s.
Tiny Computers - merged into TIME Computers.
Texas Instruments
Tulip Computers - changed its name to Nedfield NV in 2008, pronounced bankrupt in 3 September 2009.
Vigor Gaming (USA) - Disappeared in March 2010
VoodooPC
VTech
Wang Laboratories - acquired by Getronics in 1999.
Xerox - Exited the computer business.
Zenith Data Systems - Merged With Packard Bell and NEC in 1996
Zeos - merged into MPC Corporation in 1996, which in turn filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2008.
Zepto Computers A/S (Denmark) - On 17 November 2009 Zepto Computer was declared bankrupt, after several tries to save the company.[6]
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Doc »

noddy wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Apple Co-Founder Traded His Shares for Gold

The difference between digging stuff up, only to bury it again somewhere else, and creating value-added products.
silicon graphics or other companies of that era that didnt survive ... not so much :)

yay for 20/20 hindsight.

Defunct[edit]

MPC (formerly MicronPC) - Filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on November 7, 2008. Efforts at reorganization failed.
They made the best desktops I have ever seen. Mostly because they were part of Micron semiconductor. Which primarily manufactured memory. So they knew a lot about signal timing on their mother boards. One of their computers same CPU would out perform their completion by about 5 to 1 in speed. Their problem was they used JIT manufacturing and could not get the parts JIT. The lead times to build to order just kept getting longer.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »


Interesting article .. thanx for posting


.
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Miss_Faucie_Fishtits
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Miss_Faucie_Fishtits »

It's all the oestrogens in the water. That's why so many bitch tits at the beach.......;P...........
She irons her jeans, she's evil.........
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Typhoon
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

noddy wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Apple Co-Founder Traded His Shares for Gold

The difference between digging stuff up, only to bury it again somewhere else, and creating value-added products.
silicon graphics or other companies of that era that didnt survive ... not so much :)

yay for 20/20 hindsight.

Defunct[edit]
Acorn Computers
Alliant Computer Systems - Ceased operations in 1992.
Altos Computer Systems - acquired by Acer in 1990.
Amdahl Corporation - A wholly owned subsidiary of Fujitsu since 1997.
Amstrad
Apollo Computer - Acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 1989.
Apricot Computers - ceased operations in 1999.
Ardent Computer - Merged with Stellar Computer to form Stardent in 1989.
AST Computers, LLC - Exited the computer market in 2001.
Atari Corporation
Bell & Howell
Beltron Computers[7]
Burroughs - Merged with Sperry to form Unisys in 1986.
Celerity Computing - Acquired by Floating Point Systems in 1988.
Commodore International - declared bankruptcy in 1994.
Compaq - Acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 2002. Defunct as a subsidiary as of 2010.
CompuAdd - filed for bankruptcy in 1993.
Computer Automation
Control Data Corporation (CDC) - Shrank as units were spun off from 1988 to 1992; remainder is now Ceridian.
Convex Computer - purchased by Hewlett-Packard in 1995
Corona Data Systems - among the original "IBM PC Compatible" clone makers
Cromemco
Data General - was one of the first minicomputer firms from the late 1960s, purchased by EMC in 1999 for its innovative RAID array storage.
Digital Equipment Corporation - Acquired by Compaq in 1998.
Durango Systems Corporation merged with Molecular Systems in 1982 which went bankrupt in 1984
Eagle Computer - ceased operations in 1986.
Eckert–Mauchly Computer - Acquired by Remington Rand in 1950.
Egenera
Elonex — Sells tablets (as of 2011)
Encore Computer - Acquired by Gores Technology Group in 1998 and renamed to Encore Real Time Computing, which Gores then sold to Compro Computer Services in 2002.
English Electric - merged into International Computers Limited.
eMachines - Discontinued by its current owner Acer in 2012.
Everex - US subsidiary closed its doors in 2009.
Evesham - merged into TIME Computers.
Franklin Computer Corporation - exited computer hardware business and reorganized into Franklin Electronic Publishers.
Gateway - Acquired by Acer in October 2007
General Electric - Sold its computer division to Honeywell in 1970.
Gericom
Gould Electronics - Sold its computer division to Nippon Mining in 1988, who in turn sold it to Encore Computer later that year.
Honeywell - Sold its computer division to Groupe Bull in 1991.
International Computers and Tabulators (ICT) - merged into International Computers Limited.
International Computers Limited (ICL) - now part of Fujitsu.
Kaypro - filed for bankruptcy in 1992.
Korea Data Systems (KDS) - merged with eMachines
Leading Edge - Mid '80s leader in PC Clone for the masses - Manufacturing done first by Mitsubishi then Daewoo
Luxor AB - Ended in 1986 after being acquired by Nokia the previous year.
Magnavox
Magnuson Computer Systems - filed for bankruptcy in early 1980s.
Maxdata (Germany) - Insolvent in 2008; warranty for existing products taken over by then the Swiss Belinea AG (see Belinea), now owned by Bluechip Computer. Warranty for Belinea products purchased before 1 November 2008 is not serviced anymore by Bluechip Computer.[4]
Mitsubishi Electronics - Closed computer systems division in 1990 Manufactured systems for Leading Edge and Sperry-Unisys
MPC (formerly MicronPC) - Filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on November 7, 2008. Efforts at reorganization failed.
Multiflow Computer - Ceased operations in 1990.
NeXT - acquired by Apple Computer in 1996.
Nixdorf Computer - Acquired by Siemens in 1991, renamed Siemens Nixdorf Informationssysteme AG.
Northgate Computer Systems - Acquired by Lan Plus in 1997, after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 1994; Lan Plus later renamed itself Northgate Innovations.
Osborne Computer - Ceased operations in 1985; rights to the Osbourne brand were sold to Mikrolog.
Packard Bell - is now a subsidiary of Acer.
PC Brand - acquired by Tandon Corporation in 1991.[5]
Philips Data Systems - acquired by Digital Equipment Corporation in 1992.
Processor Technology - Ceased operations in 1979.
Psystar - Under 2009 permanent injunction to stop selling computers with Apple's Mac OS X operating system. Psystar's web site has disappeared.
Pyramid Technology - Acquired by Siemens in 1995.
Quantex Microsystems - Bankrupt in 2000.
Radio Shack
RCA - Exited the computer business in 1971; Sperry Rand took over RCA's installed base in 1972.
Research Machines - Exited manufacturing in late 2013. Brand continues as a services company.
Remington Rand - Acquired by Sperry to form Sperry Rand in 1955.
Sanyo
Scientific Data Systems - Acquired by Xerox in 1969.
Sequent Computer Systems - Acquired by IBM in 1999.
Sharp Corporation
Siemens - Computer division (Siemens Nixdorf Informationssysteme AG) merged 50/50 with Fujitsu into Fujitsu Siemens Computers in 1999, then Siemens half bought by Fujitsu in 2009.
Silicon Graphics - acquired by Rackable Systems in 2009, when Rackable then re-branded to SGI.
Sinclair Research - acquired by Amstrad in 1986.
Solbourne Computer - Acquired by Deloitte Consulting in 2008.
Soyo
Sperry - Merged with Burroughs to form Unisys in 1986.
Sperry Rand - Dropped "Rand" from its name in 1978 and continued as Sperry.
Stardent - Ceased operations in 1992.
Stellar Computer - Merged with Ardent Computer to form Stardent in 1989.
Sun Microsystems - Acquired by Oracle Corporation in 2010.
Systems Engineering Laboratories - Acquired by Gould Electronics in 1981 and became Gould's computer division.
Tandon Corporation
Tandy Corporation - Previous parent company of RadioShack, produced the TRS-80 and Tandy 1000 and 2000 IBM PC compatible computers. Sold their computer division to AST Computers in the early 1990s.
Tiny Computers - merged into TIME Computers.
Texas Instruments
Tulip Computers - changed its name to Nedfield NV in 2008, pronounced bankrupt in 3 September 2009.
Vigor Gaming (USA) - Disappeared in March 2010
VoodooPC
VTech
Wang Laboratories - acquired by Getronics in 1999.
Xerox - Exited the computer business.
Zenith Data Systems - Merged With Packard Bell and NEC in 1996
Zeos - merged into MPC Corporation in 1996, which in turn filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2008.
Zepto Computers A/S (Denmark) - On 17 November 2009 Zepto Computer was declared bankrupt, after several tries to save the company.[6]
Quite right.

I used to use Silicon Graphics workstations. Amazing graphics for their day.

However, the guy could have just let his $800 ride and taken a chance . . .
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

some personality types prefer the option of not losing much that gold gives to the riskier option of the gamble on stock, i dont consider either stupid.

i take the stupid option, which is making sure i get good value out of any extra money before the government takes it away. burp.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

As the widely quoted and much-admired straight-talking strategist at Morgan Stanley, Gerard Minack had been "banging on" about the mounting risks in the global economy well before the GFC hit and laid waste to the world economy and investors' portfolios.
Sure, he may have been a couple of years early, but, as he says, "at least I saw it coming". The sad fact is that most missed it.
Minack left Morgan Stanley some 18 months ago with the unsullied reputation of being one of the most bearish – and keenest – observers of financial markets. When he went, he took with him his Downunder Daily note. The publication is considered a must-read among the investment community, both here and abroad.
Three months later, Minack began self-publishing the Downunder Daily. He says his intention was to keep doing what he had always been doing, but this time for a select group of clients – almost all of whom are based in London or the United States – and without the growing pressures of his ever-expanding responsibilities at the bank.
"I deliberately decided when I left to keep it balanced, not to start writing like Zero Hedge," he says, referring to an uber-bearish and popular financial blog with the cheery tag line: "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero".
He also kept the notes short, at two pages. "When asked why Ramones songs were so short, Joey Ramone said 'We write songs for people who don't have time to listen to music'," jokes Minack. "I write notes for people who don't have time to read notes."
In fact, very few have had the opportunity to hear Minack's insights since he left Morgan Stanley. He has maintained radio silence as he built up his client base, acutely aware now that he was undermining his own fledgling business by giving away his research free.
This is the first expansive interview Minack has provided since he went solo. Read on to hear how iron ore and the Aussie dollar can go much lower from here, what stands between us and recession, how bonds will be better than shares this year, and what could be the biggest investment opportunity for equity investors in the coming years.


Fairfax Media: How do you think 2014 panned out in investment markets?
Gerard Minack: People look at the S&P 500 and think it was a good year; it was a rubbish year for equities in US dollar terms. The S&P is the [2002 Olympics speed ice-skating gold medallist] Steve Bradbury of financial markets – the only one that has kept on skating while the others wobbled and fell over.
Aussie shares are in a full-blown bear market, in US dollar terms. Credit markets are starting to wobble, commodities have been smoked. After two years of broad-based gains in risky assets, we're down to the last man standing.

Fairfax: What has supported the strong gains in asset markets up to recently?
GM: A couple of things. I think QE has been overrated, but six years of zero rates in the US is going to have an impact.
But for me the most important monetary policy act of the last four years by a mile was [European Central Bank president Mario] Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. In the two years before that, every time we hit a soft patch you reintroduced the tail risk of a systemic European banking crisis. And by taking that risk away all of a sudden the market became inured to macro weakness and started this two year re-rating. It was a pure valuation rally. From the late 2011 lows in global equities to early this year the MSCI All Country Index was up 65 per cent. Earnings over the same period were down, so we had a pure P/E-led rally.

Fairfax: That doesn't sound like the soundest base for markets to build on from here.
GM: My look forward this year is that with the Fed tightening even modestly you bring the curtain down on P/E expansion. It's going to be a poor year for US equities because earnings growth is not that strong; but at least the US has earnings growth. Outside the US you don't, which is a very problematic outlook for this year unless you want to say the world suddenly accelerates, which it may do for a quarter or two because of low oil prices, but beyond that it doesn't look great.

Fairfax: So you think the Fed will raise rates this year, despite low inflation?
GM: I think so, although falling inflation expectations may delay it. The Fed officials continue to hint middle of this year, which is as good a guess as any. What would make them back off are signs of macro weakness, not signs of low inflation, particularly if it's "good" low inflation. When the price of something you're buying is going down, that's great. The killer disinflation is when the price of things you're selling is weakening. That's Australia.
When the US heads into the next recession it's very likely to enter that recession with the lowest short rates, the lowest long rates, the lowest nominal GDP growth, and the lowest CPI it's ever entered recession with. Then you've got a problem! But that's the next downturn.

Fairfax: So it's worth owning bonds, not equities this year? With bond prices sky high, will there be a day of reckoning as interest rates normalise?
GM: I can't see a day of reckoning any time soon. The forces of disinflation still have the upper hand. Last year, in terms of equities, certainly the S&P was the stand-out performer, but you'd have been much better off holding a 30-year bond in the States. It would have given you a better return.
You can't look for bonds to give you the same returns as the past couple of years, or the past 30 years, but as we saw in Japan for over a decade, there's a time to own bonds not because of what they were but because of what they weren't: they weren't things that were going down. Investors want a premium return to own a riskier asset. If bonds are flat this year in price terms you'll get a pick-up of 2 or 3 per cent, which would imply you need to expect 6 or 7 per cent from equities just to compensate, and if you can't see 6 or 7 per cent, you should be in bonds or something safe like cash.

Fairfax: From a local investor perspective, the added attractiveness of US shares comes from the expected currency gains this year.
GM: If it's the currency, then buy a fixed income fund there. But currency's a separate issue.

Fairfax: What about China as a potential source of returns this year?
GM: There are structural problems there. You've had 30 years of great growth in China and lousy equity returns, and that's because they can't allocate their capital. If they improve their capital allocation they will be better over the medium term, but you want to see those reforms put in place first.
The rest of Asia is an uneven story. Ultimately still a slow-growth world. If the US is growing at 2.5 per cent, and it's the world's locomotive, then you know the train is not moving very fast.
There's been, ironically, since the GFC a massive increase in global leverage, and a lot of it concentrated in emerging markets. So one of the risks this year is you get an adverse feedback loop developing: as the dollar goes up, these levered emerging market borrowers start to buckle. According to [the Bank for International Settlements], about two-thirds of cross-border bank lending is US-dollar-denominated. And I suspect in China that official data don't capture a lot of the borrowing.
That is a problem, and arguably is already restraining Chinese policymakers. I would have argued by now they would have left the renminbi weaken. But perhaps there's a sense that the competitive gains from depreciation are offset by the pain of unhedged dollar exposures if they let the renminbi slip.

Fairfax: With that grim kind of outlook, as a local investor wouldn't you just buy Telstra and other high-yielding blue-chips and hope that share prices don't go down?
GM: That's been a marvellously successful strategy for three years, and for the industrial yielders that makes sense. If we cross the Rubicon into full-blown recession then you don't want to own banks. The two hardest things for investors to find is growth and safe yield, and companies like Telstra and the utilities offer some safe yield. I'm not sure they will continue to re-rate as they have – they may a little – but it's the tallest pygmy out there at the moment. But even if you don't get into offshore equities, you should at least get out of the country and have a more diversified global asset mix. That said, no asset mix that will give you great returns.

Fairfax: Where to for the Aussie dollar?
GM: It will go to US75¢ or lower this year. The cliché has been you go up the stairs and down the mineshaft; this time we've come down the stairs. On a trade-weighted base, excluding the US dollar, it has been very modest falls. We still offer something that's in scarce supply: safe yields which are high by global standards. That slows the response of the currency to terms-of-trade weakness and narrowing interest rate differentials.

Fairfax: What's your outlook for the iron ore price?
GM: From here, iron ore will halve in US dollar terms, in my view. In the boom all the other commodities went up six- or seven-fold, while iron ore went up 15 times. So, sure, it's halved already, but it has further to go.

Fairfax: How vulnerable is our housing market?
GM: I don't think there's anything exceptional about our housing market, except that we've gone 23 years without a downturn. When we get across-the-board unemployment then we'll get an across-the-board downturn in house prices; it's just a matter of time. Far better to take some excess out of the market now.

Fairfax: Where will monetary policy go from here?
GM: Good question. You either get nothing or more than two [cuts]. If the leading indicators of employment roll over, then for me recession is the most likely outcome. We have national domestic demand growth of 1 per cent. Here in NSW it's 4.5 per cent while in the rest of the country it's falling.
We know this year that residential investment will contribute less to growth, we know car workers will start to get fired. We know mining capex starts to accelerate to the downside. The one thing that looks half-good are leading indicators of employment. The ANZ and ABS jobs ads, and the components of the monthly purchasing managers index, look OK. But if they roll over we've got a problem, and already we've seen them wobble, which is partly due to politics.
One of the few areas of bipartisanship we've had over the past dozen years is both parties have agreed to be short term and second rate!

Fairfax: What are the big global risks you see out there in the coming few years?
GM: The biggest bubble out there is central bank credibility. If Draghi was a stock he'd be on a P/E of 200! Yellen's on 100. When that bubble pops, all hell will break loose again, and there you really just want to be in cash.

Fairfax: So the biggest risks are in Europe?
GM: Yep. The problem is the next crisis will not be in the periphery and it will not be in the banks; it will be economic and it will be in the core.
The big problem is the internal competitive imbalances in Europe. The problem's not [that] the euro is too high against the dollar, it's not that the euro is too high against the yen. The problem is that the French franc is too high against the deutschemark, and Mr Draghi can't fix that. From the resulting economic stress you're getting political blowback. You're getting fringe parties flourishing everywhere. There are whole landmines of elections coming up in the next 18 months, any one of which could throw up a result that could get the crisis back as front page news.

Fairfax: So you still don't believe the euro can survive?
GM: That's still the case. You can't restore your competitiveness in a fixed-exchange-rate regime.
The solution is simple, and it's what the periphery has done: it's called having a depression. It's 20 per cent unemployment and large nominal wage cuts. The trouble is that the small economies can be bossed around, but you can't see the French taking the same medicine.
But what's quite clear is they will not take the action pro-actively. Mr Draghi bought them time with "whatever it takes", but they sat back and twiddled their thumbs. They need the cattle prod of crisis to get them to react.
I actually think that the next crisis – which is inevitable over a two or three-year horizon – will be a great buying opportunity for euro equities because they will get very cheap.

Fairfax: Isn't there the chance that the actions taken by central banks to soften, if extend, the pain will eventually lead to a more delayed and gradual return to normality, without a crisis?
GM: In a way I think we are all turning Japanese. In the 1990s when they first tackled their bubble – and it was world's best-practice bubble, it was spectacular! – initially most analysts, myself included, applauded. It looked like they had let the air out gently without a recession: rates and growth came down and unemployment did not go up.
But the point was that it was the second downturn in '97 that nailed them; only after then did the Japanese "turn Japanese".
Now, we've shot a lot of bullets in the global financial crisis and the next downturn I think will reveal most other people are turning Japanese. Unfortunately the one policy that blindingly obviously works is fiscal policy, but it's very unlikely to be doable in the next downturn; in the US due to congressional gridlock, and it will be disabled in Europe because they won't have a centralised fiscal authority.
So you're left response-less when you enter the next downturn, with monetary policy that is ineffectual, unconventional monetary policy that's just embroidery, and very close to deflation.

Fairfax: Most investors would share to a large extent many of the views you've described – does that mean we're all bears now?
GM: The funny thing is there is a disconnect between what investors are saying and what they are doing. No one thinks all the problems the global financial crisis revealed have been healed. But when you have an equity rally like you've seen for the past four or five years, then everybody has had to participate to some extent.
What you've had are fully invested bears.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-bear ... z3OaRiwsdj
quality doomer pron, nice lighting, good camera work, funky soundtrack.
ultracrepidarian
Simple Minded

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Simple Minded »

noddy wrote:
quality doomer pron, nice lighting, good camera work, funky soundtrack.
:lol:

you left out the lyrics...

when it comes to metaphor & analogy, this guy needs a broader brush....

reminds me of the old quote, "When it comes down to publish or perish, most academics (in this case analysts) make the wrong choice!"

or as a friend says "Economics is a mixture of alchemy & poker!"

I think predicting the end of the world more than once every couple years hurts one's credibility in the long run.... but, thankfully in the long run we're all dead..... so....
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Endovelico
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Endovelico »

China and Russia to launch new credit rating agency in 2015
Published time: January 13, 2015 14:17

​The new Universal Credit Rating Group (UCRG) is being set up to rival the existing agencies Moody's, S&P and Fitch, and its first rating will be issued this year.

The setting up of UCRG is in its final stages, ready to challenge the ‘Big Three’ that currently dominate the industry, the Managing Director of RusRating Aleksandr Ovchinnikov told Sputnik News Agency on Tuesday.

"In our opinion, the first ratings [will] appear … during the current year," Ovchinnikov said, adding that accreditation with the local regulator is already underway.

The news comes on the heels of Fitch’s decision to follow S&P in downgrading Russia’s sovereign credit rating to BBB-, a step above junk level and on par with India and Turkey.

The new agency will be based in Hong Kong, and provide a check on the ‘Big Three’, which some analysts say don’t provide an accurate reading of economic situations.

Many securities and bonds in the US that had triple-A ratings in 2008 and were considered ‘safe’, turned out to be a bubble, revealed by the subprime mortgage crisis.

"When the issue of creating an agency alternative to the ‘Big Three’ [Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch Group] was raised, we in fact offered [a] project that was ready to be launched and was supported by the governments of Russia and China," Ovchinnikov said.

Developed economies are often given a free credit rating pass, whereas developing economies are assigned more risky ratings, the RusRating analyst said.

UCRG was officially created in June 2013 by China’s Dagon, Russia’s RusRating and America's Egan-Jones Ratings. Each member will hold an equal share in the venture, with an initial investment of $9 million.

http://rt.com/business/222175-russia-ch ... ng-agency/
One more step in the right direction.
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Zack Morris
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Location: Bayside High School

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Zack Morris »

Someone leaked me a copy of their initial coverage:

Sinopec: Aaa; XOM: C
Xiaomi: Aa; AAPL: B
Huawei: Aaa; CSCO: C
BABA: Aa; GOOG: C
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Typhoon
Posts: 27242
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm
Location: 関西

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Reuters | Swiss central bank stuns market with policy U-turn
(Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank shocked financial markets on Thursday by scrapping a three-year-old cap on the franc, sending the currency soaring against the euro and stocks plunging on fears for the export-reliant Swiss economy.
Apparently big deal in the forex markets.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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