Classic market bubble; leading to death

Now, what news on the Rialto?
Mr. Perfect
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Classic market bubble; leading to death

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Not only are we seeing record margin buying but corporations are turning cash hoards into stock buybacks. Gonna be a doozy folks.

Hope you all know how to grow your own food.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/big-rea ... -1C9989316
This year, big U.S. companies have given the go-ahead for $286 billion of buybacks, up 88 percent from the same period last year, according to Birinyi Associates, a market research firm. If the pace continues for the rest of the year, the tally will exceed the record set in 2007. (What happened in 2007, hmmm. -MP)

Every manner of company is caught up in the buying binge, including home-improvement chains, makers of farm equipment and jet engines, airlines, sellers of soft drinks and of hard liquor alike. Not one to miss a hot trend, Apple recently authorized as much as $50 billion of buybacks.

Investors like buybacks because they suggest companies think their stock is cheap. (We're at record levels and people think stocks are cheap? Hmmm... -MP) They also help reduce the number of shares outstanding, which automatically increases earnings per share. And higher earnings per share often, though not always, lead to rising stock prices.

But buybacks are also crucial to the rally for a reason that's not widely known. Companies are one of the few big stock purchasers nowadays. Nearly every other big player in the stock market has been selling more than they've been buying.
Last edited by Mr. Perfect on Mon May 20, 2013 2:31 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Classic market bubble; the end is coming

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We're facing I think the largest bubbles of all time at the moment. Juggs and others were thinking that Obama would stumble on the economy in the 2nd term and conservatives would reap the benefits and finally start rebuilding America. This was never in the cards, it was a fatal mistake to think that way. The Ryan plan via Romney was America's and the developed world's last hope, and it had 50/50 chance at best. A hail Mary.

The market crash will usher in the next Great Depression, it will be worse than the 30's because we will be starting it with debt to gdp of close to 150%, where we started the depression with about 15%.

The Federal Government will go insolvent and mass starvation and death will spread from sea to sea, across the fruited plain. The deficit will yawn to + 2 trillion and interest rates will skyrocket as no one will loan to gov'ts anymore. The Harvard Democrat state controlled TARP banks will explode as all the repo contracts default. Civilization will end in many places, particularly Democrat Cities.

The destroyed USG will invite military strikes and invasions from Russia and China and Democrats will suffer mass death as a result of the big cities being targeted by nuclear weapons and invading forces.

Tinker you made a big mistake, you should have stuck with the $#!tshack commune plan, the NYC corporate thing is all over. NYC will be vaporized.

In case I haven't been clear, stock buybacks at market peaks only happen in a bubble.

Share buybacks happen almost always when the share is considered undervalued.
Last edited by Mr. Perfect on Mon May 20, 2013 2:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Classic market bubble

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And I will be shorting the F out of this thing, and plan to triple my net worth. I already have arrangements to have my accounts liquidated and converted to precious metals, delivered to my physical address within 48 hours by truck, with caches in the hills ready and waiting.

Also I think modern AR rifles are going to be worth selling children, the stockpile grows. The plan we're building so far is to fill out a 10 man commando squad of local moral Christians that can all trust each other and are proficient in firearms and other TTPs. We're at 6 men. Running Wilson Combat 6.8 SPC 16" M4s for freedom. The 223s are for investment purely. The FAL Foehammer though will be wielded by the lead man (guess who :) ). DMR in 308 baby, bring it on all enemies foreign and domestic.

Zack please forward this post to the authorities hopefully I can tie up thousand of DHS agents monitoring me.
Last edited by Mr. Perfect on Mon May 20, 2013 2:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Classic market bubble

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And this bubble could go on for years, the market could hit 25,000 and then drop to 7,000 there really isn't any telling. Boy it's going to be bad.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

Post by noddy »

hmm the prons.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

Post by Mr. Perfect »

First cracks in the dam

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tokyo- ... 2013-05-22
Japanese shares suffered their worst losses in more than two years on Thursday after data showing an unexpected contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity added to worries the Federal Reserve could downscale its bond purchases.

The Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +2.67% , which had jumped 2% earlier on Thursday, ended the day 7.3% lower at 14,483.98 in a spectacular turnaround. The drop is the Nikkei’s worst single-day loss since March 15, 2011, when the market was overwhelmed by selling in the wake of a calamitous earthquake and tsunami. The benchmark’s closing level was nearly 1,460 points from the day’s peak.
This is the unavoidable outcome of leftist, human destruction everywhere you look. When QE ends the bubbles start popping, and there will be nowhere to turn. Way to go leftists. The end is coming.
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Re: Classic market bubble

Post by Taboo »

Mr. Perfect wrote:We're facing I think the largest bubbles of all time at the moment. Juggs and others were thinking that Obama would stumble on the economy in the 2nd term and conservatives would reap the benefits and finally start rebuilding America. This was never in the cards, it was a fatal mistake to think that way. The Ryan plan via Romney was America's and the developed world's last hope, and it had 50/50 chance at best. A hail Mary.

The market crash will usher in the next Great Depression, it will be worse than the 30's because we will be starting it with debt to gdp of close to 150%, where we started the depression with about 15%.

The Federal Government will go insolvent and mass starvation and death will spread from sea to sea, across the fruited plain. The deficit will yawn to + 2 trillion and interest rates will skyrocket as no one will loan to gov'ts anymore. The Harvard Democrat state controlled TARP banks will explode as all the repo contracts default. Civilization will end in many places, particularly Democrat Cities.

The destroyed USG will invite military strikes and invasions from Russia and China and Democrats will suffer mass death as a result of the big cities being targeted by nuclear weapons and invading forces.

Tinker you made a big mistake, you should have stuck with the $#!tshack commune plan, the NYC corporate thing is all over. NYC will be vaporized.

In case I haven't been clear, stock buybacks at market peaks only happen in a bubble.

Share buybacks happen almost always when the share is considered undervalued.
I think a 20-year stagnation with escalating debt, a la Japan, just like (otherwise hated) Dr. Krugman predicted, is far more likely. It's always easy to underestimate the capacity of the system to muddle through with minimal changes, just enough to push the buck just a little down the road.

Share buybacks at peak market might mean bubble, or it might mean that the political environment is unfavorable (or disliked) enough by businesses that they would rather return the money to shareholders than invest. Obviously without significant RnD there can be no real growth in a developed economy. Low growth prospects in turn make investments less profitable-looking, making share buybacks even more appealing and so forth. There are of course dampeners on this cycle.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

Post by Mr. Perfect »

The real problems with that analysis are:

1: If/when this market crashes debt to gdp will soar once again for America as gdp contracts and revenues fall, as in 2000 and 2008-2009. We'll be at 120-130% debt to gdp in a sneeze, in a few months time and we're just getting started borrowing. Japan is only surviving because their debt is stable, we're just getting warmed up.

2: Soft landing scenarios depend on things not going into default, and in the TARP banks we're facing a round of defaults as significant as Subprime, arguable more damaging, as repurchase contracts go insolvent.

So market crash followed by repo crash = end of civilization, read the bible, pray for deliverance, the end cometh as outlined by Daniel, Ezekiel, Isaiah, Jesus, John, etc.
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Re: Classic market bubble

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Taboo wrote:ey to shareholders than invest. Obviously without significant RnD there can be no real growth in a developed economy. Low growth prospects in turn make investments less profitable-looking, making share buybacks even more appealing and so forth. There are of course dampeners on this cycle.
Actually this is just another kind of bubble. They all pop.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

Post by noddy »

market crash followed by repo crash = end of civilization
i think that market crash followed by repo crash is followed by a ww2 type command economy - which is no change at all for 47% of the population as per romney

the more independant redneck types wont notice and nor will the multinational mobile types.

so all up, some suffering for the 20-40 percent who expect comfy middle class from government trickle down.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

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We're looking at insolvency, hard to command and control in that situation.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

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I'll say this, I'll pull out of the markets right before the gov't deficit picture gets understood. Once that happens they will start seizing accounts like unto Cyprus. Just be aware. Even though a lot of you deserve it I'll warn you anyway.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

Post by noddy »

print away savings in zirp environment, steal savings outright,mores tax on savings or banks crashing destroying savings - why worry about the stealing version.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

Post by Taboo »

Mr. Perfect wrote:The real problems with that analysis are:

1: If/when this market crashes debt to gdp will soar once again for America as gdp contracts and revenues fall, as in 2000 and 2008-2009. We'll be at 120-130% debt to gdp in a sneeze, in a few months time and we're just getting started borrowing. Japan is only surviving because their debt is stable, we're just getting warmed up.
Yes, stable at a π/4 angle. :)

Image
2: Soft landing scenarios depend on things not going into default, and in the TARP banks we're facing a round of defaults as significant as Subprime, arguable more damaging, as repurchase contracts go insolvent.

So market crash followed by repo crash = end of civilization, read the bible, pray for deliverance, the end cometh as outlined by Daniel, Ezekiel, Isaiah, Jesus, John, etc.
If it goes to hell in the big banks with repo haircut levels becoming unsustainable, the state will step in, nationalize the lavender out of everything and reprivatize it a year later, having absorbed part of the losses and administered massive haircuts to debt-holders and bank owners, as per their political influence and the salience of their failure.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

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Taboo wrote: Yes, stable at a π/4 angle. :)
:) I thought gov't debts were flatter.

If it goes to hell in the big banks with repo haircut levels becoming unsustainable, the state will step in, nationalize the lavender out of everything and reprivatize it a year later, having absorbed part of the losses and administered massive haircuts to debt-holders and bank owners, as per their political influence and the salience of their failure.
I'm not seeing it. I think a market crash larger than 2000 plus a Subprime TARP II on top of the weakest recovery of all time (U6 still around 14%) with a record indebted USG, I think that's it. That's my optimistic scenario. Anything is possible but some things are not.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

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Maybe when the big bubbles start to pop and the big banks falling down.. things may be harsh for a while but will get better amazingly fast. Can't wait. Some accounts will be settled of course, but that is the nature of the beast. Not everybody in the western world will die. Enough survivors left to pick up the pieces and rebuild. Always been like that. The country side will just get much more popular than ever before. Cities skeletons of art.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

Post by Typhoon »

Historically, govts had dealt with debt by debasing the currency, be it reducing the gold content in coins, printing more paper money, or adding zeroes to electronic ledgers.

This often leads to inflation, with Japan a counterexample - so far, and occasionally hyperinflation.

Will there be an apocalyptic economic event in the future? Definitely.

In our lifetimes? Unlikely.
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Re: Classic market bubble; the end is coming

Post by Zack Morris »

This is good stuff, Mr. P. It's like Glenn Beck meets Zerohedge.
Mr. Perfect wrote: The market crash will usher in the next Great Depression, it will be worse than the 30's because we will be starting it with debt to gdp of close to 150%, where we started the depression with about 15%.
No one has demonstrated that any of this matters. In the 1930's, money was backed by gold and most of the world was a long ways away from achieving Western-style prosperity. What does 150% mean in this context? No one can really say.
The Federal Government will go insolvent and mass starvation and death will spread from sea to sea, across the fruited plain. The deficit will yawn to + 2 trillion and interest rates will skyrocket as no one will loan to gov'ts anymore. The Harvard Democrat state controlled TARP banks will explode as all the repo contracts default. Civilization will end in many places, particularly Democrat Cities.
I think you should slow down. You just learned about repos the other day.
The destroyed USG will invite military strikes and invasions from Russia and China and Democrats will suffer mass death as a result of the big cities being targeted by nuclear weapons and invading forces.
The Chinese are going to destroy their customers and invaluable assets (US real estate) -- not to mention the planet -- for what reason, exactly?


Meanwhile, in the real world, corporate profits are doing quite well and a larger share of earnings are derived from overseas than ever before in American history, meaning that the health of American industry is increasingly dependent on the purchasing power of consumers abroad. Consumers whose numbers are growing, as it so happens. A lot of people believe there is a stock market bubble, and they may well be correct, but they are also overstating the problems. Fundamentally, there is a lot that is strong and robust about the US economy and corporate profits are very real.
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Re: Classic market bubble; the end is coming

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Zack Morris wrote:This is good stuff, Mr. P. It's like Glenn Beck meets Zerohedge.

No one has demonstrated that any of this matters.
No one demonstrated the sinkability of the Titanic before hand.
In the 1930's, money was backed by gold and most of the world was a long ways away from achieving Western-style prosperity. What does 150% mean in this context? No one can really say.
No one could say what would happen if the unsinkable Titanic hit the iceberg either.
I think you should slow down. You just learned about repos the other day.
When are you going to learn about them.
The Chinese are going to destroy their customers and invaluable assets (US real estate) -- not to mention the planet -- for what reason, exactly?
It's human nature going back to the upper and lower kingdom. The weaker are overtaken by the stronger.
Meanwhile, in the real world, corporate profits...
Yes Zack Morris, the real world of corporate profits. Tinker I hope some day you read this.

We all know that you care about yourself only, and you do not care about people like the impoverished minorities you exploit politically and destroy economically. This conversation is for people who care about humanity, not people like yourself. You can go to some forum with your fellow IT people and glory in making your 80 grand for the first time or whatever, but some people are concerned with what will happen when the government you got everyone dependent on destroys itself. Hint, what you've done to Detroit is just a precursor.

Some people, clearly not you, are more concerned with this real world. Let me know if you need help understanding what it means:

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Re: Classic market bubble

Post by Enki »

Taboo wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:We're facing I think the largest bubbles of all time at the moment. Juggs and others were thinking that Obama would stumble on the economy in the 2nd term and conservatives would reap the benefits and finally start rebuilding America. This was never in the cards, it was a fatal mistake to think that way. The Ryan plan via Romney was America's and the developed world's last hope, and it had 50/50 chance at best. A hail Mary.

The market crash will usher in the next Great Depression, it will be worse than the 30's because we will be starting it with debt to gdp of close to 150%, where we started the depression with about 15%.

The Federal Government will go insolvent and mass starvation and death will spread from sea to sea, across the fruited plain. The deficit will yawn to + 2 trillion and interest rates will skyrocket as no one will loan to gov'ts anymore. The Harvard Democrat state controlled TARP banks will explode as all the repo contracts default. Civilization will end in many places, particularly Democrat Cities.

The destroyed USG will invite military strikes and invasions from Russia and China and Democrats will suffer mass death as a result of the big cities being targeted by nuclear weapons and invading forces.

Tinker you made a big mistake, you should have stuck with the $#!tshack commune plan, the NYC corporate thing is all over. NYC will be vaporized.

In case I haven't been clear, stock buybacks at market peaks only happen in a bubble.

Share buybacks happen almost always when the share is considered undervalued.
I think a 20-year stagnation with escalating debt, a la Japan, just like (otherwise hated) Dr. Krugman predicted, is far more likely. It's always easy to underestimate the capacity of the system to muddle through with minimal changes, just enough to push the buck just a little down the road.

Share buybacks at peak market might mean bubble, or it might mean that the political environment is unfavorable (or disliked) enough by businesses that they would rather return the money to shareholders than invest. Obviously without significant RnD there can be no real growth in a developed economy. Low growth prospects in turn make investments less profitable-looking, making share buybacks even more appealing and so forth. There are of course dampeners on this cycle.
Or we could recognize that these companies are no longer, "American companies.", and America's economy can collapse and it won't necessarily tank these companies.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

Post by Enki »

I am also doing the shitshack commune thing and the corporate thing simulataneously.

Notice the lack of faith that these who believe money is everything have? They cannot imagine that there is a solution to when money breaks down. An information system breaks, and it cannot be replaced, ohnoes weeza all gonna dies. After all, that is all that money is, information.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

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There will be a solution for some. Not for others.

Money = food for people in the civilized world. Starvation awaits.
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Re: Classic market bubble; leading to death

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Mr. Perfect wrote:There will be a solution for some. Not for others.
So nothing will change you are saying?
Money = food for people in the civilized world. Starvation awaits.
Yes, temporarily that is probably true. What is more likely is if the economy truly collapses we will become a socialist command economy and food will be distributed with data rather than cash.
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Re: Classic market bubble; the end is coming

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Mr. Perfect wrote: No one demonstrated the sinkability of the Titanic before hand.
People also foretold the Second Coming for two thousand years and none of them were ever right. If you're wrong, you're wrong, and no analogy is going to change that.
It's human nature going back to the upper and lower kingdom. The weaker are overtaken by the stronger.
Yes, the stronger Chinese will overtake the weaker Americans, but they won't be lobbying nukes to accomplish it because it is also human nature to take the path of least resistance. Many countries have suffered total economic collapse without being "destroyed" by their rivals.
We all know that you care about yourself only, and you do not care about people like the impoverished minorities you exploit politically and destroy economically. This conversation is for people who care about humanity, not people like yourself. You can go to some forum with your fellow IT people and glory in making your 80 grand for the first time or whatever, but some people are concerned with what will happen when the government you got everyone dependent on destroys itself. Hint, what you've done to Detroit is just a precursor.
You mean I'll get to live in the nice part of town and ignore the bad part of town? Okay.
Image

Does the graph show underemployment today or overemployment in the 80's, when a huge part of global productive capacity was still offline?
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Re: Classic market bubble; the end is coming

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Zack Morris wrote: People also foretold the Second Coming for two thousand years and none of them were ever right. If you're wrong, you're wrong, and no analogy is going to change that.
And if I'm right you will either die from a nuclear fire or be eaten by a neighbor.
Yes, the stronger Chinese will overtake the weaker Americans, but they won't be lobbying nukes to accomplish it because it is also human nature to take the path of least resistance. Many countries have suffered total economic collapse without being "destroyed" by their rivals.
There was often nothing worth looting, or conquering. The USA has been the world breadbasket for half a century, among other things. You will be one of the first to burn, judging by where you live.
You mean I'll get to live in the nice part of town and ignore the bad part of town? Okay.
You mean the bad part of town where you imprisoned the darkies. Nothing ever changes about a liberal. BTW when they rise up like Orpheus reports you are going to be the closest people around. We'll be watching on the satellite TV, with popcorn.
Does the graph show underemployment today or overemployment in the 80's, when a huge part of global productive capacity was still offline?
Haha, "they took our jobs", you turned yourself into a pre-existing South Park caricature. Good going.
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