Stock Market Rally 2014

Now, what news on the Rialto?
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Zack Morris
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Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Zack Morris »

So it looks like the Zerohedgers were wrong -- they sold the market short ahead of the FOMC meeting and ended up shirtless (and shortless!) this winter. The stock market did exactly the opposite of what the naysayers predicted (but exactly in line with the predictions of the large brokerages and research firms).

Now that reasonable growth can be expected through most of 2014 -- apart from a correction that everyone expects to hit at some point -- is anyone game enough to make predictions (bonus points for quarter granularity) about market performance? Will tech/materials/industrials lead, as consensus suggests, or do you favor other sectors? What will happen to bonds? Precious metals?
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Erm, they only cut STPN by barely 10%. Non event.

But as you imply rich whites will continue to do better than ever while they continue to put distance between them and minorities economically, who will continue to suffer as rich liberals look the other way and practice trickle down Keynesianism that of course never trickles down.

Well done Zack Morris.
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Zack Morris
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Zack Morris »

Mr. Perfect wrote:Erm, they only cut STPN by barely 10%. Non event.

But as you imply rich whites will continue to do better than ever while they continue to put distance between them and minorities economically, who will continue to suffer as rich liberals look the other way and practice trickle down Keynesianism that of course never trickles down.

Well done Zack Morris.
This thread should be about predictions/speculation rather than railing against supply-side economics. But feel free to respond in the "Obamageddon" thread.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

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I simply responded to the content in your op. If you didn't want anyone to respond to it you should have said so, or not said what you said to begin with.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Zack Morris »

Look, a $10B/mo. cut is more or less in line with what the market expected if any tapering announcement was to happen at all. Nobody seemed to seriously believe there would be a steeper cut and yet the hint of any tapering at all was supposed to signal doom for the market, or the beginning of the eagerly anticipated correction. Most were predicting that the program would remain unchanged until at least March/April.

In the hours leading up to the announcement, the market tanked on the actions of people putting their money where their mouths were: selling off in anticipation of a stock market dip. After all, the stock market is allegedly only being propped up by the bond buying program. Puts were being sold against my pet favorite, PCLN, at some of the highest levels this year.

So let's not pretend that this was "no big deal". It was more than most expected, and they were willing to act drastically on mere rumor of a wind-down. Next year's stock market growth, for the record, will be driven by fundamentals, as much of it was this year.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

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Pre-announcement activity represents the tiniest of a fraction of market activity and is akin to entrail reading. In a 70 billion + per month pumping scenario and zero interest rates good luck finding any fundamentals. Remember pumping was doubled before it was cut, even though it was supposed to last 2 months and we're now at 14+ months with no end in sight.

That's not to say that you can't make a whale load in a bubble, I've done very, very, very well in bubbles. You might say that I was born to it. Groomed for it. I heard about Joe Kennedy and I thought hey if that @$$hole can do it I can do it. So I thank Joe, the b@$!@rd. Hauling it in on the way up, hauling it in on the way down. No other way would his kid have got in the WH. Democrats owe their greatest franchise to 1% activity.

Personally my longest time horizons these days are about 3 weeks. 3 weeks at a time. Go with what works for you.
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Doc
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Doc »

Big Corporations, Big Insurance companies, and Big Banks have all done very well under Obama. When you have a story that shows growth or even lack of shrinkage on main street then you would have something to talk about.
Last edited by Doc on Sat Dec 21, 2013 11:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Zack Morris wrote:.

So it looks like the Zerohedgers were wrong -- they sold the market short ahead of the FOMC meeting and ended up shirtless (and shortless!) this winter. The stock market did exactly the opposite of what the naysayers predicted (but exactly in line with the predictions of the large brokerages and research firms).

.

Only idi*ts sold, shorted, this market .. on Wall Street, one told me, they no speculate, they must have upfront assurance

Last 2 yrs, FED openly said they are going to push unemployment below 6% .. for that to happen, people and companies have to spend .. for people and companies to spend, they must feel rich .. only way for people and companies to feel rich is if stock prices go up "MANY" fold .. the smart-ass (those on FED's wagon) knew this, they were told so

The economy still has a long long way to start improving as people paying down their debt, will take some time things to unwind

but, good news is, stocks will go up for a few yr, like they did for 10 yrs in 1990s.

No danger of crash as long as things still deflationary

Crash will come when things turn inflationary .. I do not expect this to happen next 10 yrs

.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Mr. Perfect »

The thing to keep in mind is that bubbles pop on their own, without regard to central planning. The anti-stpn contingent thinks it will collapse when the pumping stops but alas, it will happen long before then. Bubbles pop in the middle of the governmnet activity. People do not grasp the level of stpn drugs in the system that is producing a whimpering economy. It's similar to the false rallies you see in terminal patients when the drugs kick in.

Expectations are this term probably, no bias on sooner or later. If you are looking for it you should be able to see it in time.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Mr. Perfect »

2014 going well, Zack Morris. Don't come off the ledge yet.
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Enki
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Enki »

Anyone talking about the capital flight from emerging markets?
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Typhoon »

Mr. Perfect wrote:Who isn't talking about it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-0 ... -beginning
ZH was once an interesting site.

However, for the last several years, it's been the site of choice of the tinfoil crowd, especially the comments section.

I thought that ZH jumped the shark with their ridiculous reporting of Fukushima Daiichi.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Mr. Perfect »

ZH is like any other human source of information, colored by the biases of the people involved. However, whatever one may think of ZH like any source of information data and facts are independent of the commentary. The emerging market situation is being covered by all angles.

The MSM jumped the shark with MMGW.
Last edited by Mr. Perfect on Wed Feb 05, 2014 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Mr. Perfect »

I generally don't do day to day commentary for a host of reasons, but today and yesterday represent bearish indicators after the 300 point drop a few days ago. Normally a big 1 day drop is followed up by a bounce, when you have two days with nothing that's not a good sign.

We may have hit the top of this market. I figured the bubble could go as long as into 2016, but I am willing to entertain the idea that it is this year. I doubt this is the beginning of the burst, but it could be at the top. Sorry Zack Morris, I tried to tell you this wasn't for you. Chainsaw circumsizers don't really do well in the markets. Stick to wannabee central planning, people survive there after many disasters.

Having said that, my outlook is always on days and weeks these days. I don't look as far a head as a year anymore, I don't have that crystal ball anymore.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Typhoon wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:Who isn't talking about it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-0 ... -beginning
ZH was once an interesting site.

However, for the last several years, it's been the site of choice of the tinfoil crowd, especially the comments section.

I thought that ZH jumped the shark with their ridiculous reporting of Fukushima Daiichi.
Where is the intelligent, incisive reporting of Fukushima Daiichi?
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Typhoon
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Typhoon »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:Who isn't talking about it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-0 ... -beginning
ZH was once an interesting site.

However, for the last several years, it's been the site of choice of the tinfoil crowd, especially the comments section.

I thought that ZH jumped the shark with their ridiculous reporting of Fukushima Daiichi.
Where is the intelligent, incisive reporting of Fukushima Daiichi?
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_yl ... as_sdt=1,5
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by noddy »

buahhhaahha, nice of you to come out of the closet as a right wing pyscho mr zak :)

the stock market is the only thing doing well, all the other stats are going backwards and without wishing to defend the zerohedges too much because most of the commentary is borderline loonery the basic complaint across that site is about these other stats and just how long can the stock market defy reality via central bank intervention.

timeframes are absurd, this baby could grind on for decades yet because the people that make the rules are breaking them so its silly to say that the rules are relevant

or it could blow up tommorrow, chaos is like that, and when it does blow up the dissonance in the explanations is going to be a treat to behold.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Bubbles pop all on their own. You can see it in the rearview. The very smart and very lucky see it in real time. I had a mix of both last 2 times. We'll see this time. Lord knows I'm watching for it, every minute of the day.
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Re: Stock Market Rally 2014

Post by Enki »

Mr. Perfect wrote:Bubbles pop all on their own. You can see it in the rearview. The very smart and very lucky see it in real time. I had a mix of both last 2 times. We'll see this time. Lord knows I'm watching for it, every minute of the day.
The bubble of accredited investor crowd-funding for equity funds is starting to inflate. I expect a it will go nuts in a few years when some of those companies start having IPO success stories and will crash as people purchase into poorly vetted tech companies that they don't really understand.

Unsure how the non-accredited investor market is going to work. The buy in for compliance is pretty large, about $ 115k on average according to a seminar I attended with an IP lawyer who was talking about Title II, III and IV for film production.

The tech startup scene in NY right now is really hot and a lot of those companies are starting to become serious. VC Money is starting to flow.

3D printing is starting to bubble up with all the offerings released at CES. All of those companies cannot possibly maintain viability since the supply is probably fairly close to exceeding demand. Stratasys, Makerbot and 3DSystems will likely be able to compete, but I am not sure who else will remain standing. I am a big fan of M-Cor, but I am not sure how well they'll do.

The groundwork is laid for a lot of new industries cropping up. The social media/privacy industry is going to heat up. The internet of things market is heating up. A lot of green energy and permaculture startups coming around with incubators cropping up around the country.

The foundation for what is likely to be many simultaneous bubbles is well laid.
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