America’s economic miracle

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America’s economic miracle

Postby manolo » Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:15 pm

Folks,

Under the leadership of President Barack Hussein Obama, America’s unemployment rate has fallen to 5.9%. This is the lowest since July 2008, two months before the collapse of the Lehman brothers!

(Guardian 4/10/2014 p43)

Non-farm payroll figures show new jobs jumping by 248,000 across the US last month, with professional and business services, retail and health care services all rising in the boom. The Dow Jones and dollar exchange are on the rise, and the London FTSE also shows good gains.

By any measure this is an excellent performance considering the parlous state in which the outgoing Republicans left the US economy.

What’s not to like?

Alex.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Nonc Hilaire » Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:52 pm

manolo wrote:Folks,

Under the leadership of President Barack Hussein Obama, America’s unemployment rate has fallen to 5.9%. This is the lowest since July 2008, two months before the collapse of the Lehman brothers!

(Guardian 4/10/2014 p43)

Non-farm payroll figures show new jobs jumping by 248,000 across the US last month, with professional and business services, retail and health care services all rising in the boom. The Dow Jones and dollar exchange are on the rise, and the London FTSE also shows good gains.

By any measure this is an excellent performance considering the parlous state in which the outgoing Republicans left the US economy. N

What’s not to like?

Alex.

The official unemployment rate is skewed for PR effect. It is only people drawing unemployment compensation, which in the US typically lasts nine months. So after nine months, or if one gets a part-time job they don't show up.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby YMix » Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:39 am

manolo wrote:Under the leadership of President Barack Hussein Obama,


the US government continues to lie.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Mr. Perfect » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:27 am

Losing friends there E. Time to come out the bunker yet? The coffin often follows the bunker (politically speaking).
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby manolo » Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:54 am

Mr. Perfect wrote:Losing friends there E.


Mr P,

I've never had any friends on the interweb, apart from maybe you. :roll:

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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby manolo » Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:00 am

Nonc Hilaire wrote:The official unemployment rate is skewed for PR effect. It is only people drawing unemployment compensation, which in the US typically lasts nine months. So after nine months, or if one gets a part-time job they don't show up.


Nonc,

That doesn't mean that the figures can't be compared like for like. A deeper analysis would be required to see where the 'skewing' has happened under different admins. I can see a lot of room for conspiracy theories on this topic.

Alex.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Nonc Hilaire » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:46 pm

manolo wrote:
Nonc Hilaire wrote:The official unemployment rate is skewed for PR effect. It is only people drawing unemployment compensation, which in the US typically lasts nine months. So after nine months, or if one gets a part-time job they don't show up.


Nonc,

That doesn't mean that the figures can't be compared like for like. A deeper analysis would be required to see where the 'skewing' has happened under different admins. I can see a lot of room for conspiracy theories on this topic.

Alex.

You cannot compare figures when the method for calculating the index has changed and altered the meaning of the term unemployed. 47 million in the US are now on SNAP (basic food welfare), and the population has not doubled since '06.

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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Doc » Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:20 pm

Nonc Hilaire wrote:
manolo wrote:
Nonc Hilaire wrote:The official unemployment rate is skewed for PR effect. It is only people drawing unemployment compensation, which in the US typically lasts nine months. So after nine months, or if one gets a part-time job they don't show up.


Nonc,

That doesn't mean that the figures can't be compared like for like. A deeper analysis would be required to see where the 'skewing' has happened under different admins. I can see a lot of room for conspiracy theories on this topic.

Alex.

You cannot compare figures when the method for calculating the index has changed and altered the meaning of the term unemployed. 47 million in the US are now on SNAP (basic food welfare), and the population has not doubled since '06.

Image



There is one thing you can compare like for like. There hasn't been this few Americans working since Jimmy Carter was president.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Simple Minded » Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:14 pm

manolo wrote:Folks,

What’s not to like?

Alex.


Paraphrasing one of this site's greatest philosophers:

"Some one else's definition of...... employment!"

Alex,

Unemployment stats have been manipulated in the US since they started measuring unemployment.

Perhaps elsewhere also....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IP81Je7APoQ
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Mr. Perfect » Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:23 am

E, I appreciate what you're going through, but to get to the root of the problem, I'm wondering what your postulate is as to why obama is so unpopular and we are on the eve of a Democrat bloodbath.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Zack Morris » Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:00 am

Nonc Hilaire wrote:You cannot compare figures when the method for calculating the index has changed and altered the meaning of the term unemployed. 47 million in the US are now on SNAP (basic food welfare), and the population has not doubled since '06.


The eligibility for which has been relaxed. You could say those people always needed SNAP but were previously being denied it for political reasons. Unemployment is receding, hiring is picking up steam, and much of the displaced workforce no longer actively looking are people near retirement age. As was foreseen.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Mr. Perfect » Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:52 am

Haha. That's why the GOP has a commanding lead over obama in polls on the issue of economy, and will win a decisive victory in November. Good stuff Zack Morris.

This was what was actually foreseen Zack Morris. Let me know if you need help reading the chart. Please share some commentary.

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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby manolo » Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:00 pm

Zack Morris wrote:The eligibility for which has been relaxed. You could say those people always needed SNAP but were previously being denied it for political reasons. Unemployment is receding, hiring is picking up steam, and much of the displaced workforce no longer actively looking are people near retirement age. As was foreseen.


Zack,

You have a good grasp of the issues. There is a sensible balancing of the employment scene in the US, as you have described.

Alex.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Mr. Perfect » Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:13 am

E, do you need any help reading the chart I put up above?
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Typhoon » Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:15 pm

FT | America’s economy is cooking on shale

Earlier this year a paper released by the US Federal Reserve calculated that these [natural gas] price variations had boosted the output of American manufacturers by 3 per cent since 2006, while raising investment by 10 per cent and jobs by 2 per cent; the impact on specific energy-linked industries was far higher. However, the IMF’s research suggests that the difference in energy costs has boosted US manufacturing exports by 6 per cent, and it argues that each 10 per cent fall in the relative price of natural gas in the US will boost US industrial production by a further 0.7 per cent, compared to that of Europe.

At first glance, this 0.7 per cent differential may not sound important. But if this gap is maintained over several years, the impact for competitiveness and output will be significant. It is not just the productivity statistics that matter; what the shale gas revolution has also done is create something that the IMF report does not mention: a transatlantic gap in psychology.


Not everything that happens in America is due to the lightening rod idol known as the POTUS.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Simple Minded » Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:14 am

Typhoon wrote:FT | America’s economy is cooking on shale

Earlier this year a paper released by the US Federal Reserve calculated that these [natural gas] price variations had boosted the output of American manufacturers by 3 per cent since 2006, while raising investment by 10 per cent and jobs by 2 per cent; the impact on specific energy-linked industries was far higher. However, the IMF’s research suggests that the difference in energy costs has boosted US manufacturing exports by 6 per cent, and it argues that each 10 per cent fall in the relative price of natural gas in the US will boost US industrial production by a further 0.7 per cent, compared to that of Europe.

At first glance, this 0.7 per cent differential may not sound important. But if this gap is maintained over several years, the impact for competitiveness and output will be significant. It is not just the productivity statistics that matter; what the shale gas revolution has also done is create something that the IMF report does not mention: a transatlantic gap in psychology.


Not everything that happens in America is due to the lightening rod idol known as the POTUS.


The idea that the POTUS is more influential in the world and one's life than gravity is an interesting mental condition. Not just confined to Americans. It seems akin to bitching about the weather.

Is there a medical term?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IP81Je7APoQ
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Typhoon » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:24 pm

Simple Minded wrote:
Typhoon wrote:FT | America’s economy is cooking on shale

Earlier this year a paper released by the US Federal Reserve calculated that these [natural gas] price variations had boosted the output of American manufacturers by 3 per cent since 2006, while raising investment by 10 per cent and jobs by 2 per cent; the impact on specific energy-linked industries was far higher. However, the IMF’s research suggests that the difference in energy costs has boosted US manufacturing exports by 6 per cent, and it argues that each 10 per cent fall in the relative price of natural gas in the US will boost US industrial production by a further 0.7 per cent, compared to that of Europe.

At first glance, this 0.7 per cent differential may not sound important. But if this gap is maintained over several years, the impact for competitiveness and output will be significant. It is not just the productivity statistics that matter; what the shale gas revolution has also done is create something that the IMF report does not mention: a transatlantic gap in psychology.


Not everything that happens in America is due to the lightening rod idol known as the POTUS.


The idea that the POTUS is more influential in the world and one's life than gravity is an interesting mental condition. Not just confined to Americans. It seems akin to bitching about the weather.

Is there a medical term?


I don't know. If not, then it is time for a clinical definition and name.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Mr. Perfect » Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:20 am

manolo wrote:
Zack Morris wrote:The eligibility for which has been relaxed. You could say those people always needed SNAP but were previously being denied it for political reasons. Unemployment is receding, hiring is picking up steam, and much of the displaced workforce no longer actively looking are people near retirement age. As was foreseen.


Zack,

You have a good grasp of the issues. There is a sensible balancing of the employment scene in the US, as you have described.

Alex.

Is that how you describe employment in the black community? All the jobs going to the whites, none to the black? That is your idea of balanced?
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Mr. Perfect » Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:22 am

Typhoon wrote:I don't know. If not, then it is time for a clinical definition and name.

What can we call people who give others the power of war, power of law, and the ability to write trillions of dollars of checks annually, and then want no accountability for those who are given those powers.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Zack Morris » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:19 am

Mr. Perfect wrote:
manolo wrote:
Zack Morris wrote:The eligibility for which has been relaxed. You could say those people always needed SNAP but were previously being denied it for political reasons. Unemployment is receding, hiring is picking up steam, and much of the displaced workforce no longer actively looking are people near retirement age. As was foreseen.


Zack,

You have a good grasp of the issues. There is a sensible balancing of the employment scene in the US, as you have described.

Alex.

Is that how you describe employment in the black community? All the jobs going to the whites, none to the black? That is your idea of balanced?


It's not any worse now than it was before. Minority unemployment is always offset from white unemployment and that offset hasn't changed appreciably.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Zack Morris » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:21 am

Typhoon wrote:FT | America’s economy is cooking on shale

Earlier this year a paper released by the US Federal Reserve calculated that these [natural gas] price variations had boosted the output of American manufacturers by 3 per cent since 2006, while raising investment by 10 per cent and jobs by 2 per cent; the impact on specific energy-linked industries was far higher. However, the IMF’s research suggests that the difference in energy costs has boosted US manufacturing exports by 6 per cent, and it argues that each 10 per cent fall in the relative price of natural gas in the US will boost US industrial production by a further 0.7 per cent, compared to that of Europe.

At first glance, this 0.7 per cent differential may not sound important. But if this gap is maintained over several years, the impact for competitiveness and output will be significant. It is not just the productivity statistics that matter; what the shale gas revolution has also done is create something that the IMF report does not mention: a transatlantic gap in psychology.


Not everything that happens in America is due to the lightening rod idol known as the POTUS.


Yeah, well, the shale boom might be coming to an end. A lot of these ventures have difficulty remaining profitable when oil falls below $90/barrel. It's great that we've gotten this far and I'm sure there's more to be squeezed out but I wouldn't bet on some economic miracle fueled by cheap fossil fuels.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Mr. Perfect » Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:33 am

Zack Morris wrote:It's not any worse now than it was before. Minority unemployment is always offset from white unemployment and that offset hasn't changed appreciably.

Why so lo information all the time Zack Morris? Why make whites so rich and black folks so poor? What do you get out of that?

This is very old news Zack Morris. Black people have done worse under obama Democrat than all other groups. Do you even consider black people to be human beings?

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5455efbe ... ab7de.html

The riddle of black America’s rising woes under Obama

Those who have fared worst under this president are the ones who love him the most

A paradox haunts America’s first black president. African-American wealth has fallen further under Barack Obama than under any president since the Depression. Yet they are the only group that still gives him high ratings. So meagre is Mr Obama’s national approval rating that embattled Democrats have made him unwelcome in states that twice swept him to power. Those who have fared worst under Mr Obama are the ones who love him the most. You would be hard-pressed to find a better example of perception-driven politics. As the Reverend Kevin Johnson asked in 2013: “Why are we so loyal to a president who isn’t loyal to us?”

The problem has taken on new salience with the resignation of Eric Holder. America’s first black attorney-general has tried to correct the gulag-sized disparities in prison sentencing between blacks and whites. His exit leaves just two African-Americans in Mr Obama’s cabinet. Given the mood among Republicans, it is hard to imagine the US Senate confirming a successor to Mr Holder who shares his priorities.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Doc » Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:26 am

Zack Morris wrote:
Typhoon wrote:FT | America’s economy is cooking on shale

Earlier this year a paper released by the US Federal Reserve calculated that these [natural gas] price variations had boosted the output of American manufacturers by 3 per cent since 2006, while raising investment by 10 per cent and jobs by 2 per cent; the impact on specific energy-linked industries was far higher. However, the IMF’s research suggests that the difference in energy costs has boosted US manufacturing exports by 6 per cent, and it argues that each 10 per cent fall in the relative price of natural gas in the US will boost US industrial production by a further 0.7 per cent, compared to that of Europe.

At first glance, this 0.7 per cent differential may not sound important. But if this gap is maintained over several years, the impact for competitiveness and output will be significant. It is not just the productivity statistics that matter; what the shale gas revolution has also done is create something that the IMF report does not mention: a transatlantic gap in psychology.


Not everything that happens in America is due to the lightening rod idol known as the POTUS.


Yeah, well, the shale boom might be coming to an end. A lot of these ventures have difficulty remaining profitable when oil falls below $90/barrel. It's great that we've gotten this far and I'm sure there's more to be squeezed out but I wouldn't bet on some economic miracle fueled by cheap fossil fuels.



Low prices = over supply of oil. Thats a good thing Zack Morris.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Zack Morris » Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:58 am

No, not really. It can mean a lack of demand due to a weak global economy. And that's a bad thing.
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Re: America’s economic miracle

Postby Zack Morris » Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:59 am

Mr. Perfect wrote:
Zack Morris wrote:It's not any worse now than it was before. Minority unemployment is always offset from white unemployment and that offset hasn't changed appreciably.

Why so lo information all the time Zack Morris? Why make whites so rich and black folks so poor? What do you get out of that?

This is very old news Zack Morris. Black people have done worse under obama Democrat than all other groups. Do you even consider black people to be human beings?

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5455efbe ... ab7de.html

The riddle of black America’s rising woes under Obama

Those who have fared worst under this president are the ones who love him the most

A paradox haunts America’s first black president. African-American wealth has fallen further under Barack Obama than under any president since the Depression. Yet they are the only group that still gives him high ratings. So meagre is Mr Obama’s national approval rating that embattled Democrats have made him unwelcome in states that twice swept him to power. Those who have fared worst under Mr Obama are the ones who love him the most. You would be hard-pressed to find a better example of perception-driven politics. As the Reverend Kevin Johnson asked in 2013: “Why are we so loyal to a president who isn’t loyal to us?”

The problem has taken on new salience with the resignation of Eric Holder. America’s first black attorney-general has tried to correct the gulag-sized disparities in prison sentencing between blacks and whites. His exit leaves just two African-Americans in Mr Obama’s cabinet. Given the mood among Republicans, it is hard to imagine the US Senate confirming a successor to Mr Holder who shares his priorities.


Not surprisingly, this was also the worst recession since the Great Depression, proving nothing. Oh, and BTW, most of the damage was caused within the first couple of years, when this was all Bush's fault. Neener neener!
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