Silent Recessions

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Silent Recessions

Postby Mr. Perfect » Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:06 am

Here is some substance for you guys.

You don't have to wander too far from the MSM to know the economy never recovered. During 7 years of obama the percentage of Americans who work has fallen year over year to generational lows, in conjuction with falling incomes, net business failures, record low GDP gorwth, record debts, and STPN funny business. A compliant press and the Stock Market bubble has been able to stifle these truths in the media as Americans silently voted the party of obama to record lows.

People often poo poo public figures who get something wrong. This is tricky. In baseball if you fail 70% of the time you are wildly successful. Likewise, a basketball player, if you fail at making the shot 50% of the time people would love to have you on the team. A politician needs to be right about 75% of the time if Republican, 50% if Democrat.

So it is with business. It's not really how many times you are right, it's if your wins are bigger than your losses, not how many per se.

Science has to be 100% correct, every time. That's the scientific standard. However almost nobody else has that standard.

So it is with bears and bulls. You don't have to be right every time. But there is a standard.

Many people correctly predict bull and bear markets in retrospect, but the timing is tricky. And in the end the timing is everything. I've seen many people dead on right about the market state but just missed the timing, and got wiped out of the business. There is a standard, but it is a blind standard. It's when you lose a certain amount of money, and you may not know what that number is ahead time. Tough rocks.

So the death bubble of the obama leftists is as obvious as an elephant in a room, but like that proverbial tale often many delude themselves into the nonexistence of the elephant. But if we've seen anything during the obama years, it is that the greatest fairy tales end up interfacing with reality eventually, and consequences result. In this case it came in the form of Democrats going from record majority to record superminority in record time. Justice wins over time.

But here we sit. We are in the lethal bubble, but for these years I've been looking for the sign. By 2012 it was obvious this was a new bubble, it wasn't a patch that was going to blow quickly, as many assumed. I don't have a dog in the fight when it comes to bull/bear and timing. I'm in the money business. I adapt.

But I know what I'm doing, and I've been through these before. The tech bubble blew with announcements. In real time you could break down what was happening. So did the RE bubble. In real time we could see where the structure had failed.

But you have these weird ones, like 1991-92 that brought down Bush 41. Nobody to this day can put a finger on what happened. It just kind of happened for it's own reasons. And you can go on, there are many examples to choose from.

But during this bubble, I've been just fine cautiously going along for the ride. If the Democrats want to give me their money, I'll take it. I didn't ask for it but they are determined to give it to someone in the investor class, so may as well be me.

But I'm watching. Watching for that early earning announcement, bank failure, foreign incident. Something. Anything.

But it's dawning on me that this one could be silent. Silent but deadly, right SM? SBD. It may be the killer you never see coming.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby noddy » Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:15 am

most of the commentators that arent paid up lackeys have noted that nothing has changed since the GFC, debt levels are higher than then and all the structural problems remain.

i think the big difference this time round is that the public isnt as ready to believe the government has it under control and the expectations and angers are all a bit higher.

very few commentators highlight that last time when america and europe went under china picked up the slack with a huge stimulus that kept the world ticking along.

this is why the contagion from the recessions in those zones didnt hit the world economy as hard as some thought it might, its why countries like australia and canada missed out on the worst of it.

this time china wont be in a position to do that, its joined the rest of the world in peak debt.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Mr. Perfect » Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:21 am

In the US the MSM and financial press are full on Kool Aid. The former for obvious reasons, but our financial types are more zealous than the traders on stocks always go up ideology. I really couldn't tell you why, but even here, anyone who thinks this is a bubble is derided as a "Zerohedger" or something to that effect. Most of us in the last year gave up on trying to talk to anyone, there was no point. The blinders are on.

Personally, if I went from supermajority to superminority in record fashion I would do at least some introspection.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby noddy » Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:27 am

well, if it was just the gubmint and the media trying to prop up the lie then it would probably fail faster.

much of the middle class has invested its life work into this lie and wants to retire soon, so the dissonance and denial is coming in hard from all angles.

you cant tell an optimistic baby boomer that all their politics and dogma ended up being pipe dreams, their superannuation and retirement money got spent on hookers and cocaine and they will be working till they die horribly of a treatable disease.

they are pretty keen to hear an alternate version of the outcome, even if its fantasy.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Mr. Perfect » Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:32 am

Well the Democrats failed to deliver across the board, that much people were willing to see. But there is a level of denialism in this culture. Some people are resigned and tired of thinking about it. But we headed straight for the iceberg.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby noddy » Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:38 am

20 years is too long a boom.

most economists and analysts think looking back on 10 year averages is sensible and 20 year averages extra sensible.

they have zero scope for knowing what a return to normal means, they dont even know what normal is.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Typhoon » Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:38 pm

If everything is right in the world, then why have interests rates been at historic lows for historic lengths of time?
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Mr. Perfect » Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:18 pm

Who are you asking. That's a zerohedge question.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Zack Morris » Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:29 pm

Typhoon wrote:If everything is right in the world, then why have interests rates been at historic lows for historic lengths of time?


Well, that's largely due to structural reasons. Low interest rates are enforced by central banks. It's like asking "if oil producers are pumping so much that the price has fallen below their break-even point, why don't they raise prices?"
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Zack Morris » Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:30 pm

I guess nothing ever came of Mr. Perfect's exciting foray into the thrilling world of repos. And I was hoping something interesting would have come from monitoring repo rates!

Zerohedgers are typically young, lack financial expertise, or both. They seem to forget that periodic crises are normal and have been since, well, forever. By the standards of the past, we're due for another recession right about now anyway. But it's far from certain how it will play out. China may be on the verge of its big reckoning but underlying US (and European) strength provides some counterbalance to that.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Zack Morris » Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:34 pm

Mr. Perfect wrote:Well the Democrats failed to deliver across the board, that much people were willing to see. But there is a level of denialism in this culture. Some people are resigned and tired of thinking about it. But we headed straight for the iceberg.


An iceberg full of cash and prosperity. In the medium to long term, the optimists are always, always right.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Mr. Perfect » Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:28 am

Zack Morris wrote:Well, that's largely due to structural reasons. Low interest rates are enforced by central banks.

So we'll go obtuse, why are central banks keeping interests low.

It's like asking "if oil producers are pumping so much that the price has fallen below their break-even point, why don't they raise prices?"

Not it's not.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Mr. Perfect » Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:30 am

Zack Morris wrote:I guess nothing ever came of Mr. Perfect's exciting foray into the thrilling world of repos. And I was hoping something interesting would have come from monitoring repo rates!

What a dumb thing to say while discussing stable low interest rates. Repos are sensitive to changes in interest rates. Do i have to keep going.

Zerohedgers are typically young, lack financial expertise, or both.

Then you have something in common.

They seem to forget that periodic crises are normal and have been since, well, forever. By the standards of the past, we're due for another recession right about now anyway. But it's far from certain how it will play out. China may be on the verge of its big reckoning but underlying US (and European) strength provides some counterbalance to that.

We're all dead in the long run doesn't sell in the election season.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Mr. Perfect » Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:46 am

Zack Morris wrote:An iceberg full of cash and prosperity.

Is that so.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/ ... egory.html


PBS host Tavis Smiley acknowledges that he, and others, got "so caught up in the symbolism of the Obama presidency," that they didn't press as hard as they should have on issues that are important to the black community.

"Sadly, and it pains me to say this, over the last decade black folk, in the era of Obama have lost ground in every major economic category," Smiley said Friday in an interview with Huffington Post. "Not one, two or three [categories], but every major economic category, black americans have lost ground"


Not following politics hurts when you then try to do politics.

In the medium to long term, the optimists are always, always right.

Mm hmm.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... ire-110362
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/20 ... stagnation
http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-civilizat ... peared.php

etc
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Zack Morris » Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:41 pm



Apparently you didn't actually read these articles. Brits are not only objectively better off than at any point in their history, the relative gap in quality of life (not to mention opportunity) between Britons and former colonial subjects like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Kenya, etc. remains staggeringly wide. No one pines for the days of Imperialism -- certainly not its victims, nor even would-be Imperialists, who realize what a futile waste of blood and treasure it is.

Whether we're talking biology, chemistry, astronomy, business, or economics, growth curves always flatten. To paraphrase the last article, if Japan is stagnating, can we have some of that, please? Stagnation, it is worth noting, is not synonymous with "declining".
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Mr. Perfect » Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:05 am

But the Brits didn't set out to decline their empire. It just happened. Maybe you are arguing that Democrats planned the US decline without telling anyone. I believe I argued that in the past, but in reality you guys are too dumb usually to come up with a plan, let alone one that is good or bad.

Stagnation is about where you are compared to where you should be. Exceeding expectations vs missing expectations.

There is a reason you went from supermajority party to superminority party in near record time. Maybe the most dramatic political collapse in our history. And you don't even have the first inkling as to why.

Part of it is your poor excuse making for your failures. Creating $10 trillion in debt with nothing to show for it and then proclaiming "Hey at least we're not Uganda!" creates:

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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Zack Morris » Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:17 am

Mr. Perfect wrote:But the Brits didn't set out to decline their empire. It just happened.


They didn't set out to build an empire, either. It just kind of came together at an opportune time. Bottom line is this: the Empire is gone, that's a good thing, and all parties are better off for it. The only aggrieved party here is those who still want Empires just for Empires' sake.

Stagnation is about where you are compared to where you should be. Exceeding expectations vs missing expectations.


You're starting to sound like a typical whiny boomer who failed to learn to manage his expectations.

In many ways, the world -- and this country in particular -- are exceeding expectations in ways once unimaginable.

There is a reason you went from supermajority party to superminority party in near record time. Maybe the most dramatic political collapse in our history. And you don't even have the first inkling as to why.


More Democrats than Republicans. As you'll see come November.

Part of it is your poor excuse making for your failures. Creating $10 trillion in debt with nothing to show for it and then proclaiming "Hey at least we're not Uganda!" creates:


Err, "at least we're not Uganda!" came from your fellow permaminority party member: Doc.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Mr. Perfect » Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:09 pm

Zack Morris wrote:They didn't set out to build an empire, either.

Yes they sure did.

It just kind of came together at an opportune time. Bottom line is this: the Empire is gone, that's a good thing, and all parties are better off for it. The only aggrieved party here is those who still want Empires just for Empires' sake.

Once again, that's not what we're talking about.

You're starting to sound like a typical whiny boomer who failed to learn to manage his expectations.

In many ways, the world -- and this country in particular -- are exceeding expectations in ways once unimaginable.

Not according to the American people. The right track wrong track dissatisfaction with Government are at record levels, as you created 10 trillion in debt, a record increase in almost all ways debt is measured, with nothing to show for it.

That's why you and your party went from supermajority status to superminority status in probably record time. One reason at least.

More Democrats than Republicans. As you'll see come November.

You'll see in November that Democrats cross parties in the ballot box more than Republicans and indies skew GOP which is why since Reagan we have been on a longer term GOP trend, resulting in our near record supermajority.

Politics 101 for almost 40 years now.

Err, "at least we're not Uganda!" came from your fellow permaminority party member: Doc.

Which you adopted for some reason.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Zack Morris » Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:36 am

Mr. Perfect wrote:
It just kind of came together at an opportune time. Bottom line is this: the Empire is gone, that's a good thing, and all parties are better off for it. The only aggrieved party here is those who still want Empires just for Empires' sake.

Once again, that's not what we're talking about.


You don't know what you're talking about. Britons today are at their all-time most prosperous. And their former colonial subjects are far better off, too.

Not according to the American people. The right track wrong track dissatisfaction with Government are at record levels, as you created 10 trillion in debt, a record increase in almost all ways debt is measured, with nothing to show for it.


Americans are doing better than they ever have before. That's why they're angry at every little thing: there's nothing big to be angry about. Crime at an all time low. No slavery. No civil war. No armed revolution. Food costs at near all time lows. Miraculous medical breakthroughs around every corner. Nobody being sent off to die on foreign beaches. Even the homeless have ubiquitous access to magical devices that the most audacious of science fiction authors 50 years ago could not foresee. Height of prosperity! In fact, it's so overwhelming that your senses are completely saturated -- like the retina of a deer caught in blinding headlights. You're "wrong track" is really just one of many incredibly amazing and life-affirming pathways we could be moving down.

That's why you and your party went from supermajority status to superminority status in probably record time. One reason at least.


See, the stimulus has so overwhelmed you that the signal has clipped and come out the other side.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Simple Minded » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:15 am

Zack Morris wrote:Americans are doing better than they ever have before. That's why they're angry at every little thing: there's nothing big to be angry about. .....


I gotta agree with you on this one Zack. First world problems are pretty trivial. But if anyone tells us "We ain't got a right to be pissed off and feel sorry for ourselves..." Those f**kers are not only just plain wrong but downright insensitive! My parents and grandparents didn't EVEN KNOW that micro-aggressions existed! :o They were worried about silly sh*t like getting enough to eat, frostbite, sunstroke, polio, tetnus, getting kicked or killed by a horse or cow, etc.

Tough part today is separating the bitter clingers from the bitter changers. :?

A great reality series would be the videotaping of teen to 30 somethings telling their parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents how tough life is today... and then the subsequent history lesson the special snowflake receives!!! Then the Piece de Resistance "So just keep it up..... and I'll give you something to complain about!"


I think in Jewish Redneck Zen the expression is "There's always room for worse!" :P

Series title: Oh Really, Well When I Was Your Age....

Luckily, I had older brothers. By age 8 or so, I knew that dog wouldn't hunt. Was fun seeing them get their stupid little asses beat though...... :P
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby noddy » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:36 am

many westerners are only a week or two away from total destruction, relatively few own their own homes, hardly any have any savings.

by all means tell them they are rich, just dont be surprised if they react badly

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get ... -paycheck/

once you add up all housing costs and licenses and fees and compulsory services, it actually doesnt matter how i live, a short break in my earnings puts me rapidly into reverse and will extinguish all my savings in months and im one of the relatively rich ones.

only once the parasites have sucked me dry will i be eligible to go onto the social housing queue, which is currently one year waiting list.

i wonder why so many dont believe in socialism as much as the middle class sheltered folks do, those stupid right wingers, voting against their own interests.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Simple Minded » Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:36 am

noddy,

I don't know anything about your personal situation, and damn little about the West.

All I know are personal anecdotes from the four different generations I have witnessed. Seeing those in the lower middle class (who felt "poor") prosper due to self-discipline and controlling their materialistic desires, while seeing those in the upper middle class (who felt "rich") self-destruct due to not being able to distinguish between wants and needs.

Seeing the OWS'ers who are wearing $500 worth of designer clothes, telling the camera they are oppressed, and then standing in line behind immigrants dressed in dirty old clothes, who barely speak English getting money orders for at least $1500 each.

Visiting my brother-in-law's house in Poughkeepsie, NY and listening to his uncle say to his father "Joe, could you even imagine, even thinking, about living in a house like this when we were his age?" At that point, the uncle was probably worth a couple million, and still living in the small house he bought 40 years earlier, that probably took him at least 20 years to pay for. Listening to my niece say she moved from Brooklyn to Manhattan, because she had already "done Brooklyn." Then telling me that her monthly rent in Manhattan was equal to 12 of my monthly mortgage payments.

Fate & luck play huge roles. Not everyone prospers or not due to their own efforts. Not hard in hindsight to understand why 40% down mortgages used to be common, and how years of paying rent kept some out of trouble.

Oddly enough, most of those I have known with financial troubles were upper middle class incomes, while the one's with lower middle class incomes had more stable lives.

Local economies, personal discipline, parents, all have huge effects. Being born 20 years earlier or 20 years later is also a huge factor.

All that said, huge adjustments are coming.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby noddy » Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:46 am

well - their is alot of truth in that but in many ways it doesnt mean anything.

they are living week to week, they dont have savings, they arent rich, they wont easily soak up a downturn or interruption to their earnings, they are scared.

on top of that, if you add up all the taxes and services fees from three layers of government and then add basic food and housing, living on the bottom of middle class is still bloody expensive and beyond the means of minimum wage retail types.

so........

there's nothing big to be angry about.


i call bullshit.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby Simple Minded » Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:35 am

noddy wrote:well - their is alot of truth in that but in many ways it doesnt mean anything.

they are living week to week, they dont have savings, they arent rich, they wont easily soak up a downturn or interruption to their earnings, they are scared.

on top of that, if you add up all the taxes and services fees from three layers of government and then add basic food and housing, living on the bottom of middle class is still bloody expensive and beyond the means of minimum wage retail types.

so........

there's nothing big to be angry about.


i call bullshit.


well as I said, I don't know anything about your situation. Luckily, rent/cost of living still varies tremendously in America, maybe by a factor of 20 or so.

Systemic problems exist for sure, many pay 50% tax rates.

I benefited tremendously from accident of birth. Raised by the generation born in the early 1920's, who taught to only borrow money to buy a house, everything else pay cash. Buying new, rather than used or fixing up junk and using that, was almost unheard of.

their tales of child care were laying the babies on blankets under the trucks so they were in the shade while the mom's picked tomatoes.

everyone I knew wore hand me downs from older siblings and relatives.

"dishwashers, lawnmowers?" Do you mean kids, right? indoor and outdoor clotheslines. I'd bet most American Xer's never heard of clotheslines.

"If you don't have the cash in hand, learn to do without."

The credit binge of the 80's/90's looked like insanity to us dinosaurs, to those born in the 70's/80's/90's, it became "normal."

Seems cyclical. Younguns are gonna cancel a lot of checks they never wrote.
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Re: Silent Recessions

Postby noddy » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:27 pm

Younguns are gonna cancel a lot of checks they never wrote.


is largely what i was trying to say.

they most certainly do have things to be angry about.

the extent to which its their own fault is the extent you believe they had the capability to work it all out DESPITE their culture and parenting.
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