The end of dollar hegemony

Now, what news on the Rialto?
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Enki
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The end of dollar hegemony

Post by Enki »

As I have been playing with Cryptocurrency I can't help but see the end of dollar hegemony. Not that I think the dollar will simply vanish, or even necessarily crash (it might though) it just seems like the dollar's domination of finance is over.

Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan
Late last year, China’s Xi Jinping said it was time for the nation to “take center stage in the world.” There are many ways for China to do this, including promoting globalization, boosting foreign aid, and developing advanced technologies. Another critical step in taking “center stage” is to be at the center of the global economy. To achieve this, China is, among other things, trying to internationalize its currency.

For the past 70 years, the US dollar has been the world’s dominant currency. Two-thirds of the world’s $6.9 trillion allocated foreign exchange reserves are held in US dollars. The yuan took a major step towards broader international adoption in 2016 when the IMF decided to include it in the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right, an alternative reserve asset to the dollar.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

I expect the FRN to be replaced with a new dollar. It will be revalued in stages to about 25¢ on the current dollar when the Basel4 rules are adopted requiring banks to hold 27.5% in non-hypothecated collateral.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Enki wrote:.

As I have been playing with Cryptocurrency I can't help but see the end of dollar hegemony. Not that I think the dollar will simply vanish, or even necessarily crash (it might though) it just seems like the dollar's domination of finance is over.

Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan
Late last year, China’s Xi Jinping said it was time for the nation to “take center stage in the world.” There are many ways for China to do this, including promoting globalization, boosting foreign aid, and developing advanced technologies. Another critical step in taking “center stage” is to be at the center of the global economy. To achieve this, China is, among other things, trying to internationalize its currency.

For the past 70 years, the US dollar has been the world’s dominant currency. Two-thirds of the world’s $6.9 trillion allocated foreign exchange reserves are held in US dollars. The yuan took a major step towards broader international adoption in 2016 when the IMF decided to include it in the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right, an alternative reserve asset to the dollar.
.

That is the main reason China considered an enemy by US .. Qaddafi was demanding Gold for Oil, Saddam too started asking Gold


China to overthrow the U.S. dollar as the currency of choice for the oil market,
a move that could have far-reaching consequences.



US-Dollar is same as Samson's hair for US world power .. if U$-Dollar no more powerful, US will fall and fall

Moving away from U$ already underway since a few yrs .. stupid "sanction" policies fast tracked things

If a nation has U$ reserve, that U$ is not in Berlin or Paris or Tokyo .. that U$ is in FED in NY

Meaning, any moment US decides, America can come with bogus argument and freeze/usurp those Dollars .. happened to Iran .. America probably usurped up to 85 Billion Dollars Iranian money minimum.

trump already whispering Germany owes America trillions .. that is why Germany took all German Gold held in US back to Berlin and now selling dollar buying Yian.

Illiterate Joe be fooled by China this Russia that, Iran this, Germany that.

Dollars days numbered.

.
Last edited by Heracleum Persicum on Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.
Nonc Hilaire wrote:I expect the FRN to be replaced with a new dollar. It will be revalued in stages to about 25¢ on the current dollar when the Basel4 rules are adopted requiring banks to hold 27.5% in non-hypothecated collateral.

Another idea is also floated

"Internal" Dollar .. "external" Dollar

That system existed in Europe (in france until late 1980's) when they had currency control

US could say, with "internal" dollars , meaning dollar held by American citizens (or majority american owned corporation) you can do most, but with "external" dollars you can only buy "certain" things (probably not US assets, but certain category of goods).

.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.
Nonc Hilaire wrote:I expect the FRN to be replaced with a new dollar. It will be revalued in stages to about 25¢ on the current dollar when the Basel4 rules are adopted requiring banks to hold 27.5% in non-hypothecated collateral.

Another idea is also floated

"Internal" Dollar .. "external" Dollar

That system existed in Europe (in france until late 1980's) when they had currency control

US could say, with "internal" dollars , meaning dollar held by American citizens (or majority american owned corporation) you can do most, but with "external" dollars you can only buy "certain" things (probably not US assets, but certain category of goods).

.
Likely correct. Treasury notes replaced by gold trade notes for imports and a new dollar for internal use.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:.
Nonc Hilaire wrote:I expect the FRN to be replaced with a new dollar. It will be revalued in stages to about 25¢ on the current dollar when the Basel4 rules are adopted requiring banks to hold 27.5% in non-hypothecated collateral.

Another idea is also floated

"Internal" Dollar .. "external" Dollar

That system existed in Europe (in france until late 1980's) when they had currency control

US could say, with "internal" dollars , meaning dollar held by American citizens (or majority american owned corporation) you can do most, but with "external" dollars you can only buy "certain" things (probably not US assets, but certain category of goods).

.

Likely correct. Treasury notes replaced by gold trade notes for imports and a new dollar for internal use.



Issue not "internal" use .. issue "Holders" of Dollars .. only American citizen and Corporations can buy American asset .. foreigner holding same dollars can only buy "certain" goods .. that wipes out all those Dollars held by non US entities, Trillions of Dollars , making $ sort of "semi-worthless" .. that most probable plan

Another way to skin the can is "talk down" the Dollar, the lower the better .. the idea sold to illiterate Joe, low Dollar good for US exports and good for balance of foreign trade .. that would bring massive inflation, making the Dollar more worthless, inflate asset prices, wipe out savings .. idea would be, low $ make American worker more "competitive", true, by making him poorer reducing his purchase power .. again idea could be better be poorer but have a job than no job at all.

Question only is, who made things deteriorate to this point ?

.
Last edited by Heracleum Persicum on Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by noddy »

much has written about the incompetence of the americans, the collapse of the dollar, the EVIL JEWS corrupting all the things.

one day real soon now, people will trust russia and china not to be racist, abusive and exploitative.

apparently.

ive believed it myself, it just always seems to turn out that no matter how much the americans stuff it up, the likely competitors stuff it up more !

china has all the cards right now, they have everythign the world wants and needs but they are so damn racist they cant bring themselves to open up the market and lose control to the dirty foreigners in the manner the british and the americans did to gain the position they had.

this isnt just about letting those foreigners use your money, its also about them being able to purchase things in your country, control business and land in your country and them trusting you will allow that to happen for more than one political cycle.

london and new york both allow anyone to participate, arabs, jews, asians, doesnt matter - all have bought in and all feel confident they own what they own.

these things are not going to happen in the current chinese system and you would have to be brave to think they will be allowed in a future one.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Typhoon »

Spot on.

+ 1
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

noddy wrote:.

china has all the cards right now, they have everythign the world wants and needs but they are so damn racist they cant bring themselves to open up the market and lose control to the dirty foreigners in the manner the british and the americans did to gain the position they had.

this isnt just about letting those foreigners use your money, its also about them being able to purchase things in your country, control business and land in your country and them trusting you will allow that to happen for more than one political cycle.

london and new york both allow anyone to participate, arabs, jews, asians, doesnt matter - all have bought in and all feel confident they own what they own.

these things are not going to happen in the current chinese system and you would have to be brave to think they will be allowed in a future one.

.

Rome was not built in a week, nor in a month

China still vulnerable to western capitalist Wall Street beasts .. lacking many laws, regulations, safeguards and and and

"noddy", recently a good Chinese friend in Vancouver told me, Chinese in China pledge a $ 1 million real estate to a bank (in China), get 10 million dollars against that asset (by paying crook bank managers) and run away with that money to Vancouver (and Sydney) and buy those expensive houses .. Canada and US and nobody has a "extradition treaty" with China .. stollen money from China, Iran, Russia, African nations all welcome in Florida and NY and Vancouver (and Sydney), and Toronto .. Iranian bank president escape to Toronto with $ 100s of millions of pensioner money.

You remember what happened with Russia Yeltsin time ? ? all the crooks took billions (of state asset) and run to TelAviv and London (yes , they for sure where not Muslims - wink wink "noddy") .. Russia was defenceless, had no laws and regulations in place, West send Harvard economist to fix Yeltsin Russia and BANG the crook run to TelAviv and London with billions of "State" asset when at the same time Russians had to prostitute for five dollars .. Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich best friend with Ivanka :lol: , all stolen Russian state money.

Once China has all the laws and safeguard in place, probably in generation or two, foreigners can do everything in China

Typhoon wrote:Spot on.

+ 1

:lol: :lol: :lol: .. very funny


Imagine, Zainichi in Japan for generations, and still "untouchable".


http://www.encyclopedia.com/places/asia ... eans-japan

Koreans in Japan generally refers to those people who came to that country during Japanese colonial rule over Korea (1910-1945) and remained after the end of World War II and their descendants. The Japanese state reckons nationality by a person's parents' nationality, and so the majority of Koreans in Japan (perhaps 90 percent) are classified as Japan-born, second-, third-, and fourth-generation Koreans of non-Japanese nationality.
Meaning, still after 100 yrs in Japan, they "non-Japanese nationality."


.
Simple Minded

Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Simple Minded »

noddy wrote:much has written about the incompetence of the americans, the collapse of the dollar, the EVIL JEWS corrupting all the things.

one day real soon now, people will trust russia and china not to be racist, abusive and exploitative.

apparently.

ive believed it myself, it just always seems to turn out that no matter how much the americans stuff it up, the likely competitors stuff it up more !

china has all the cards right now, they have everythign the world wants and needs but they are so damn racist they cant bring themselves to open up the market and lose control to the dirty foreigners in the manner the british and the americans did to gain the position they had.

this isnt just about letting those foreigners use your money, its also about them being able to purchase things in your country, control business and land in your country and them trusting you will allow that to happen for more than one political cycle.

london and new york both allow anyone to participate, arabs, jews, asians, doesnt matter - all have bought in and all feel confident they own what they own.

these things are not going to happen in the current chinese system and you would have to be brave to think they will be allowed in a future one.
Oh great! Now that this ditty has hit the internet, we're gonna have to re-double all the stories about climate change, racism, sexism, shitty health care, ...... black rednecks, gun violence, rats and wealth inequality in the blue states......, white rednecks, xenophobia, opioid abuse and incest in the red states in order to retard immigration inflow into the US.

HP, the NYT, WaPo, and the Guandian will have to up their game. I hope Trump has enough $ to keep paying all of them.

I think you meant to say Canadians hosing it up, not Americans stuffing it up, right? ;)
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Enki »

The Zero Sum way this is talked about generally just tells us nothing. It isn't so much about China replacing America, as much as Unipolar World Theory going away.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by noddy »

i get that perspective but i also wonder why it hasnt happened properly yet despite the incompetence of the american financial system

the more i thought of that the more i noticed that you cant really trust europe at all for long term money storage - the splits between north, south and east need to play out over a much longer time before people will truly accept it as a new reality.

china is so outrageously nationalist and racist it makes trump look like a moderate centrist - anything is possible once the populist anti foreigner card is played.

on top of that even the chinese businessmen i work with dont trust it for anything more than direct 1-1 exchanges due to the inablity for the legal system to override the whims of local politics.

mostly we are arguing timeframes - you are going to be right over enough decades, im only concerned with the decade infront of me.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.
US govt shuts down after Senate fails to pass funding

This a trick to default on T-bills to China .. Trump said in his campaign he will not pay those T-bills

So, U$-Dollar collapse could be ahead

.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Typhoon »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.
US govt shuts down after Senate fails to pass funding

This a trick to default on T-bills to China .. Trump said in his campaign he will not pay those T-bills
Source?
Heracleum Persicum wrote: So, U$-Dollar collapse could be ahead
.
Then you should go and short the dollar on the futures exchange.

Good luck ;)
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Typhoon wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:.
US govt shuts down after Senate fails to pass funding

This a trick to default on T-bills to China .. Trump said in his campaign he will not pay those T-bills
Source?
Heracleum Persicum wrote: So, U$-Dollar collapse could be ahead
.
Then you should go and short the dollar on the futures exchange.

Good luck ;)


.


Seems you not followed Trump presidential campaign .. he clearly said he will nag on paying those T-bills


NYT
Donald Trump’s Idea to Cut National Debt:
Get Creditors to Accept Less


After assuring Americans he is not running for president “to make things unstable for the country,” the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, suggested that he might reduce the national debt by persuading creditors to accept something less than full payment.

Asked on Thursday whether the United States needed to pay its debts in full, or whether he could negotiate a partial repayment, Mr. Trump told the cable network CNBC, “I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal.”

:lol: .. US becoming the new Argentina


Re U$-Dollar dropping : look @ Bloomberg Euro/U$ "1 year" chart (since Trump taking over)

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR


Year ago .. 1 Euro was 1.05 U$-Dollar ... Now , 1 Euro is 1.23 U$-Dollar

Meaning U$-Dollar lost 20% value since 1 yr against Euro

This might now accelerate for multiple reason .. irony might be, Trump wanting U$ to weaken, he talking it down.

.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Typhoon wrote:.
Heracleum Persicum wrote: So, U$-Dollar collapse could be ahead
.
Then you should go and short the dollar on the futures exchange.

Good luck ;)


.


Yes, agree, Good Luck (it took only 4 days) :lol:



FT
in Davos
Mnuchin backs weaker dollar in break with tradition


US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has broken with tradition by declaring a weaker dollar is good for American trade in comments that have fuelled market speculation that Washington is seeking to depress the currency to boost the economy.

Dollar in "free fall" .. FED's Jerome Powell shorting Dollar :lol: .. probably will fall 20% .. the new "northern Peso".

C$-Canadian Dollar spiking.

.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Typhoon »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Typhoon wrote:.
Heracleum Persicum wrote: So, U$-Dollar collapse could be ahead
.
Then you should go and short the dollar on the futures exchange.

Good luck ;)


.


Yes, agree, Good Luck (it took only 4 days) :lol:



FT
in Davos
Mnuchin backs weaker dollar in break with tradition


US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has broken with tradition by declaring a weaker dollar is good for American trade in comments that have fuelled market speculation that Washington is seeking to depress the currency to boost the economy.

Dollar in "free fall" .. FED's Jerome Powell shorting Dollar :lol: .. probably will fall 20% .. the new "northern Peso".

C$-Canadian Dollar spiking.

.
Wet dreams.

TIme to wake up. Hands off cocks, on with socks.

Mises Inst |Can China Really Dethrone the Dollar?
The data for 2016 of the BIS (Bank of International Settlement) show a very different reality from the one that the European, Japanese, and Chinese central banks want us to see. The US dollar is not only the most traded currency in the world but its use has increased since 2013 from 87% to 87.6% of global transactions.

The euro not only continues to be a global anecdote but its use has fallen since 2013, from 33% to 31% of transactions. Remember that the sum of all the transactions that the BIS calculates is 200% because each monetary transaction includes a pair in another currency.

The Chinese currency, the yuan, is only used in 4.0% of transactions, in a country that is more than 15% of the world economy.

Now, as we have heard on dozens of occasions in the past, when the conspiracy theories are dusted off and we read in different news reports that China and Russia are going to dethrone the US dollar by launching contracts in oil and other commodities in yuan. China and Russia have switched to domestic currencies in trading using financial tools as swaps and forwards, seeking to reduce the influence of the US dollar and foreign exchange risks.

Will these measures dethrone the US dollar as king of currencies?

I am very sorry, but the reports of the end of the US dollar are simply conspiracy theories.

A currency is not a world reserve because it is decided on by a government or group or because it is imposed militarily. If a currency could have been imposed by military might or political repression, the Soviet ruble would have been a world reserve currency, and the Chinese yuan would not be a mere 4% of world transactions. A currency is a global reserve when confidence in it as a means of payment and reserve of value is maintained throughout the world in the face of the evidence of risks with local currencies.

The megalomania and mistaken policies of politicians all over the world with respect to their ability to manipulate the purchasing power of their local currencies are precisely what reinforce the position of the US dollar as a world reserve. That is also the reason why the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar, or the Australian dollar are used more than the yuan and other apparently almighty military powers. It is not military or political repression that makes a currency attractive, but rather the credibility and the depth of the secondary market.
The reason why China maintains completely obsolete capital controls is that domestic economic agents, as soon as markets open, do everything possible to get rid of their yuan in the face of the evidence of a huge devaluation. That is why China has lost almost one-third of its reserves in foreign currency in a few years.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.

FT
in Davos
Mnuchin backs weaker dollar in break with tradition


US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has broken with tradition by declaring a weaker dollar is good for American trade in comments that have fuelled market speculation that Washington is seeking to depress the currency to boost the economy.


CS, you pissin @ the wrong tree


Steven Mnuchin not waiting for "China to Dethrone the Dollar" .. America WANTS lower Dollar

Can copy/pate the entire FT article saying Steven Mnuchin explicitly said US want lower Dollar

.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Typhoon »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

FT
in Davos
Mnuchin backs weaker dollar in break with tradition


US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has broken with tradition by declaring a weaker dollar is good for American trade in comments that have fuelled market speculation that Washington is seeking to depress the currency to boost the economy.


CS, you pissin @ the wrong tree


Steven Mnuchin not waiting for "China to Dethrone the Dollar" .. America WANTS lower Dollar

Can copy/pate the entire FT article saying Steven Mnuchin explicitly said US want lower Dollar

.
A lower dollar is rather different than "the end of dollar hegemony".

It benefits US exporters to the detriment of US importers.

The one thing that may occur is another round of competitive currency devaluation between countries.
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Re: The end of dollar hegemony

Post by noddy »

as per the trump wins thread - it has also provoked the big boys into spending money again finally and getting the economy moving.

lower taxes, evaporating money , blowing bubbles.
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Re: The end of dollar hedgemoney.

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Typhoon wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Typhoon wrote:.
Heracleum Persicum wrote: So, U$-Dollar collapse could be ahead
.
Then you should go and short the dollar on the futures exchange.

Good luck ;)


.


Yes, agree, Good Luck (it took only 4 days) :lol:



FT
in Davos
Mnuchin backs weaker dollar in break with tradition


US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has broken with tradition by declaring a weaker dollar is good for American trade in comments that have fuelled market speculation that Washington is seeking to depress the currency to boost the economy.

Dollar in "free fall" .. FED's Jerome Powell shorting Dollar :lol: .. probably will fall 20% .. the new "northern Peso".

C$-Canadian Dollar spiking.

.
Wet dreams.

TIme to wake up. Hands off cocks, on with socks.

Mises Inst |Can China Really Dethrone the Dollar?
The data for 2016 of the BIS (Bank of International Settlement) show a very different reality from the one that the European, Japanese, and Chinese central banks want us to see. The US dollar is not only the most traded currency in the world but its use has increased since 2013 from 87% to 87.6% of global transactions.

The euro not only continues to be a global anecdote but its use has fallen since 2013, from 33% to 31% of transactions. Remember that the sum of all the transactions that the BIS calculates is 200% because each monetary transaction includes a pair in another currency.

The Chinese currency, the yuan, is only used in 4.0% of transactions, in a country that is more than 15% of the world economy.

Now, as we have heard on dozens of occasions in the past, when the conspiracy theories are dusted off and we read in different news reports that China and Russia are going to dethrone the US dollar by launching contracts in oil and other commodities in yuan. China and Russia have switched to domestic currencies in trading using financial tools as swaps and forwards, seeking to reduce the influence of the US dollar and foreign exchange risks.

Will these measures dethrone the US dollar as king of currencies?

I am very sorry, but the reports of the end of the US dollar are simply conspiracy theories.

A currency is not a world reserve because it is decided on by a government or group or because it is imposed militarily. If a currency could have been imposed by military might or political repression, the Soviet ruble would have been a world reserve currency, and the Chinese yuan would not be a mere 4% of world transactions. A currency is a global reserve when confidence in it as a means of payment and reserve of value is maintained throughout the world in the face of the evidence of risks with local currencies.

The megalomania and mistaken policies of politicians all over the world with respect to their ability to manipulate the purchasing power of their local currencies are precisely what reinforce the position of the US dollar as a world reserve. That is also the reason why the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar, or the Australian dollar are used more than the yuan and other apparently almighty military powers. It is not military or political repression that makes a currency attractive, but rather the credibility and the depth of the secondary market.
The reason why China maintains completely obsolete capital controls is that domestic economic agents, as soon as markets open, do everything possible to get rid of their yuan in the face of the evidence of a huge devaluation. That is why China has lost almost one-third of its reserves in foreign currency in a few years.



France will start offering euro-denominated loans to Iranian buyers of its goods
to help trade flourish outside the reach of U.S. sanctions

, the head of state-owned investment bank Bpifrance said.


The plan is to offer dedicated, euro-denominated export credits to Iranian buyers of French goods and services and so avoid the extraterritorial reach of U.S. legislation.

Germany already started trading with Iran on Euro basis

China and Russia do Iran trade with their own currencies.

Japan since 1973 trades with Iran mostly on YEN basis (reason at time was YEN was appreciating rapidly and Japan exporter were losing on U$)

Iran sanction fast tracking American economic downhill by pushing world trade to sidestep Dollar .. add to this China actively sidestepping dollar.


.
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Re: The end of dollar hegemony

Post by noddy »

Image

china and russia could double their trade in their own dollars and still not be as relevant to the money market as a bunch of convicts in australia or lumberjacks in canada :)
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Re: The end of dollar hegemony

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.
noddy wrote:.

Image

china and russia could double their trade in their own dollars and still not be as relevant to the money market as a bunch of convicts in australia or lumberjacks in canada :)

.

We talking what is going on now, posting statistics of 2 yrs ago in fast changing currency move no good.

Oil trade is around $ 6 B a day (100 m b/d @ 60 $/b) .. big buyers are China, Europe and Japan .. China already said will pay for oil in Yuan, Europe in Euro, and Japan Yen.

We will see the real impact in 2020 numbers.

.
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Re: The end of dollar hegemony

Post by noddy »

maybe.

dont get me wrong, it seems absurd for the current situation to continue and i expect it to stop any day now, by all measures china should be a powerhouse.

except.

ive been hearing this lavender for 20 years now, tommorrow people are going to trust russia and china with their money.

tommorrow.

the real problem is that chinese money is almost useless, you cant spend it except in very controlled scenarios in china - you can buy product off them.

can i buy chinese land ?
can i buy chinese business ?
can i invest in chinese business and trust the local court system to enforce my entitlements ?

no.

i can substitute china for russia and get the same answer... its useless money, can only use it as barter chips for the exact products their government want you to buy.

in america or australia or canada having the money is all you need, you are as good as a local.
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Re: The end of dollar hegemony

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Lol let me get this straight, marxist collectivist is trading in unsecured commodities? Can't make this stuff up.
Censorship isn't necessary
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