Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

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Azrael
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Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Azrael »

Obama spending binge never happened

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From the article:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Of all the falsehoods told about President Barack Obama, the biggest whopper is the one about his reckless spending spree.

As would-be president Mitt Romney tells it: “I will lead us out of this debt and spending inferno.”

Almost everyone believes that Obama has presided over a massive increase in federal spending, an “inferno” of spending that threatens our jobs, our businesses and our children’s future. Even Democrats seem to think it’s true.

But it didn’t happen. Although there was a big stimulus bill under Obama, federal spending is rising at the slowest pace since Dwight Eisenhower brought the Korean War to an end in the 1950s.

Even hapless Herbert Hoover managed to increase spending more than Obama has.

Here are the facts, according to the official government statistics:

• In the 2009 fiscal year — the last of George W. Bush’s presidency — federal spending rose by 17.9% from $2.98 trillion to $3.52 trillion. Check the official numbers at the Office of Management and Budget.


• In fiscal 2010 — the first budget under Obama — spending fell 1.8% to $3.46 trillion.

• In fiscal 2011, spending rose 4.3% to $3.60 trillion.

• In fiscal 2012, spending is set to rise 0.7% to $3.63 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of the budget that was agreed to last August.

• Finally in fiscal 2013 — the final budget of Obama’s term — spending is scheduled to fall 1.3% to $3.58 trillion. Read the CBO’s latest budget outlook.

Over Obama’s four budget years, federal spending is on track to rise from $3.52 trillion to $3.58 trillion, an annualized increase of just 0.4%.
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Azrael
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

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Zack Morris
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Zack Morris »

No wonder we're still in a recession.
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NapLajoieonSteroids
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by NapLajoieonSteroids »

I wonder how the charts are put together.

On the 1st, I recall both campaigns and parties being rather involved in the negotiations for that first stimulus bill.

And did it drop because of cuts or because it was a down year? The second chart shows an abrupt dip right around the time the internet crash happened and again just around the time of the initial sluggishness of the economy in the middle of Bush's 2nd term. What does "Growth in civilian noninstitutional populations" actually cover?

Since growth in civilian non-institutional population is just a parcel of gov't spending, what does institutional spending look like? I bet there is a whole lot of dough hidden in that.
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Azrael
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Azrael »

Zack Morris wrote:No wonder we're still in a recession.
That's what I was thinking.
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Azrael
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Azrael »

NapLajoieonSteroids wrote:I wonder how the charts are put together.

On the 1st, I recall both campaigns and parties being rather involved in the negotiations for that first stimulus bill.
Yes, however the stimulus spending in 2009 is credited to Obama, even though he wasn't President when the legislation was passed.
And did it drop because of cuts or because it was a down year?
Government spending generally goes up in down years, because more people are on government support, unemployment payments, ect. So it is surprising that it doesn't shoot up.
The second chart shows an abrupt dip right around the time the internet crash happened and again just around the time of the initial sluggishness of the economy in the middle of Bush's 2nd term. What does "Growth in civilian noninstitutional populations" actually cover?
People who are not institutionalized (in prison, ect.).
Since growth in civilian non-institutional population is just a parcel of gov't spending, what does institutional spending look like? I bet there is a whole lot of dough hidden in that.
That would mean a much larger number of people in prisons or mental hospitals, ect., which we haven't seen.
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Simple Minded

Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Simple Minded »

Seems to me, I remember a quote, a couple years after the money was alloted, paraphrased that "well the shovel ready projects are not shovel ready...."

Best to declare a crises and get the money first...... than create a plan to save the world later...... no matter which party you are in.......

Could be an excellent example of pushing on a rope. Look at the money multiplier stats over the last few decades. Politicians are often credited (no pun intended) or blamed for things beyond their control.

The social mood/norm of the last 3-4 decades of individuals spending like "drunken sailors" (a standard determined by one's first 25 years) may be in decline. "Miser" may be the new norm, perhaps for an extended period.

How does one influence (force?) people to be optimistic and borrow money, spend more on staples and luxuries, hire more employees, expand their businesses, build houses, buy cars, when they perceive that "tough times" are ahead, and the "prudent" thing to do is batten down the hatches, fix the old instead of buy the new, and "make do without?"

IMSMO, economics is at least as much influenced by mass psychology than it is by a any mechanical relationship of money supply controlled by the 1%.

Easier to increase supply than to create demand. Ask Madison Avenue and politicians. Billions are spent on the attempt to create demand.

You all NEED ME to LEAD you....
or you NEED ME to protect you from the evil others.....
or you NEED to buy MY product!!!!

Send your money to PO Box........
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NapLajoieonSteroids
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by NapLajoieonSteroids »

Azrael wrote:
NapLajoieonSteroids wrote:I wonder how the charts are put together.

On the 1st, I recall both campaigns and parties being rather involved in the negotiations for that first stimulus bill.
Yes, however the stimulus spending in 2009 is credited to Obama, even though he wasn't President when the legislation was passed.
And did it drop because of cuts or because it was a down year?
Government spending generally goes up in down years, because more people are on government support, unemployment payments, ect. So it is surprising that it doesn't shoot up.
The second chart shows an abrupt dip right around the time the internet crash happened and again just around the time of the initial sluggishness of the economy in the middle of Bush's 2nd term. What does "Growth in civilian noninstitutional populations" actually cover?
People who are not institutionalized (in prison, ect.).
Since growth in civilian non-institutional population is just a parcel of gov't spending, what does institutional spending look like? I bet there is a whole lot of dough hidden in that.
That would mean a much larger number of people in prisons or mental hospitals, ect., which we haven't seen.
Thanks for answering the questions, prisoners are definitely not the first people who come to my mind when I hear institutional, so I was pretty much in left-field on that one. ;)
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Azrael
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Azrael »

Simple Minded wrote:Seems to me, I remember a quote, a couple years after the money was alloted, paraphrased that "well the shovel ready projects are not shovel ready...."

Best to declare a crises and get the money first...... than create a plan to save the world later...... no matter which party you are in.......
That sounds like the Iraq War. Yes, this is a common way of doing things.

However, it costs money even to plan how to use the money effectively and design what needs to be built, before anyone picks up a shovel. Some "shovel ready" projects needed money to work out the details. I don't see how this can be completely avoided.
Could be an excellent example of pushing on a rope. Look at the money multiplier stats over the last few decades. Politicians are often credited (no pun intended) or blamed for things beyond their control.
True.
The social mood/norm of the last 3-4 decades of individuals spending like "drunken sailors" (a standard determined by one's first 25 years) may be in decline. "Miser" may be the new norm, perhaps for an extended period.
I think so. Household debt levels are falling rapidly. I suppose people figured out that using their home equity as an ATM isn't a viable long term strategy to fund their retirement.
How does one influence (force?) people to be optimistic and borrow money, spend more on staples and luxuries, hire more employees, expand their businesses, build houses, buy cars, when they perceive that "tough times" are ahead, and the "prudent" thing to do is batten down the hatches, fix the old instead of buy the new, and "make do without?"
Well, the government can fund infrastructure improvements: fix roads, power transmission, sewers, etc. That would put people to work and put money in to their pockets, some of which they'd spend. Also, the improvements (really just catching up to where we were thirty years ago) would increase productivity.
IMSMO, economics is at least as much influenced by mass psychology than it is by a any mechanical relationship of money supply controlled by the 1%.
True.
Easier to increase supply than to create demand. Ask Madison Avenue and politicians. Billions are spent on the attempt to create demand.
Yep.
You all NEED ME to LEAD you....
or you NEED ME to protect you from the evil others.....
or you NEED to buy MY product!!!!

Send your money to PO Box........
That sounds like an ad on talk radio.
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Azrael
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Azrael »

NapLajoieonSteroids wrote:Thanks for answering the questions, prisoners are definitely not the first people who come to my mind when I hear institutional, so I was pretty much in left-field on that one. ;)
You're welcome.
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Simple Minded

Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Simple Minded »

Azrael wrote:However, it costs money even to plan how to use the money effectively and design what needs to be built, before anyone picks up a shovel. Some "shovel ready" projects needed money to work out the details. I don't see how this can be completely avoided.

Well, the government can fund infrastructure improvements: fix roads, power transmission, sewers, etc. That would put people to work and put money in to their pockets, some of which they'd spend. Also, the improvements (really just catching up to where we were thirty years ago) would increase productivity..
Very true, I think where it may fall apart is in the matching funds/less than 100% federal funds department. I will fund 50% of your local infrastructure improvements is not very appealing to a municipality that have seen considerable loss in tax base/increase in costs.

Some of the local projects I have seen have been atrocious wastes of money, slight road leveling or straighten with almost no value at huge costs. Looked like someone's federal budget had to be burned. If the local politicians did it their heads would be on pikes... the old days of burn this year's budget so you can get more next year may be gone for a generation or two.

I think it is a general shift in perspective. How old is your Godfather? What does he think?
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Azrael
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Azrael »

Simple Minded wrote:
Azrael wrote:However, it costs money even to plan how to use the money effectively and design what needs to be built, before anyone picks up a shovel. Some "shovel ready" projects needed money to work out the details. I don't see how this can be completely avoided.

Well, the government can fund infrastructure improvements: fix roads, power transmission, sewers, etc. That would put people to work and put money in to their pockets, some of which they'd spend. Also, the improvements (really just catching up to where we were thirty years ago) would increase productivity..
Very true, I think where it may fall apart is in the matching funds/less than 100% federal funds department. I will fund 50% of your local infrastructure improvements is not very appealing to a municipality that have seen considerable loss in tax base/increase in costs.
Yes, but possibly they can fund the projects with infrastructure bonds, which have generally done pretty well when put to a vote.
Some of the local projects I have seen have been atrocious wastes of money, slight road leveling or straighten with almost no value at huge costs. Looked like someone's federal budget had to be burned. If the local politicians did it their heads would be on pikes... the old days of burn this year's budget so you can get more next year may be gone for a generation or two.
Yes, a big issue is "lose it or lose it" (spend this year's funds so they won't be eliminated in next year's budget). It leads to a considerable amount of waste.
I think it is a general shift in perspective. How old is your Godfather? What does he think?
My Godfather is 70. He joined the Marines right out of high school, worked on aircraft radars and computers, then worked in the private sector in technology (he invented something, but I forgot what) for decades, then spent a number of years before retirement working for the Federal Court so that he could get retirement health benefits. He was pretty chagrined by how inefficient things were at the Federal Court. People were afraid that if they made their systems more efficient, there wouldn't be enough work for some of them to do and they'd lose their jobs.
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Juggernaut Nihilism
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Juggernaut Nihilism »

I'm confused. The $831 billion stimulus bill was signed into law Feb 09, and passed with no Republican votes in the house. Which stimulus bill are you talking about? Are you referring to TARP?
"The fundamental rule of political analysis from the point of psychology is, follow the sacredness, and around it is a ring of motivated ignorance."
Simple Minded

Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Simple Minded »

Azrael wrote: My Godfather is 70. He joined the Marines right out of high school, worked on aircraft radars and computers, then worked in the private sector in technology (he invented something, but I forgot what) for decades, then spent a number of years before retirement working for the Federal Court so that he could get retirement health benefits. He was pretty chagrined by how inefficient things were at the Federal Court. People were afraid that if they made their systems more efficient, there wouldn't be enough work for some of them to do and they'd lose their jobs.
Azrael,

Thanks. Your Godfather and I would get along just fine.

Amazing how common the "make work" or "lets not be too efficient" attitude is when the cost is not personal.

First time I encountered this was at the NYS DMV. Saw it big time at GM with the UAW drones. It shocked the hell out of a naive farm boy...... I could not believe that adults could be wilfully ignorant and self-destructive. "Pay me a little bit more, and I will produce as little as possible.... or even go out drinking when I should be working."

So much for protecting the little guy from the nasty free market with tons of dehumanizing rules that prevent them from being more valuable to their potential customers....

Small minds...... short term attitudes..... they reap what they sow
Ibrahim
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Ibrahim »

Azrael wrote:
Zack Morris wrote:No wonder we're still in a recession.
That's what I was thinking.

Then is it reasonable to say that Romeny's stated plans to increase military spending and cut taxes, which would drastically increase the deficit, would in fact stimulate and economic recovery where Obama's stinginess only mitigated the damage from 2008?
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Azrael
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Azrael »

Ibrahim wrote:
Azrael wrote:
Zack Morris wrote:No wonder we're still in a recession.
That's what I was thinking.

Then is it reasonable to say that Romeny's stated plans to increase military spending and cut taxes, which would drastically increase the deficit, would in fact stimulate and economic recovery where Obama's stinginess only mitigated the damage from 2008?
There's a term for that: Military Keynesianism. Basically Reaganomics, aka "voodoo economics".
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Juggernaut Nihilism
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Re: Obama Spending Binge Never Happened

Post by Juggernaut Nihilism »

Juggernaut Nihilism wrote:I'm confused. The $831 billion stimulus bill was signed into law Feb 09, and passed with no Republican votes in the house. Which stimulus bill are you talking about? Are you referring to TARP?
What was the answer to this?
"The fundamental rule of political analysis from the point of psychology is, follow the sacredness, and around it is a ring of motivated ignorance."
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