The False Gods of Economics

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Typhoon
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The False Gods of Economics

Post by Typhoon »

FT | Do not put your faith in the false deities of economists
Economics is a faith-based pursuit forever in search of a new deity.
Those who believe in a compassionate God struggle to explain how such a being can allow such terrible misery to be inflicted on life’s innocents. Belief in the canons of economics demands a comparable leap of imagination.
There are lessons, however, for politicians. The first is that the fervour with which economists propagate this or that theory is usually in inverse proportion to the evidence. Fanaticism is thrown as a cloak over the absence of empiricism. The present devotion in Europe to slash-and-burn fiscal policies is a case in point. Didn’t Keynes say something useful about the paradox of thrift?

The second lesson is that policy makers should always treat advice with a large dose of, dare one say it, sceptical secularism.
When the economists are wrong they simply move on to the next deity. It is rather harder for prime ministers and chancellors to rush into the arms of apostasy.
or ask J. M. Keynes so succinctly put it
The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else.
Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
Simple Minded

Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Simple Minded »

Economics is an excellent example of a "social science."

Except that the part about people being invovled kinda destroys any disciplined scientific thought process.....

As a degreed Economist once told me "Economics is a mixture of alchemy and poker. You start out with invalid assumptions about almost everything, that are designed to simply get you funding, and then it goes awry."
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Endovelico
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Endovelico »

Economics are actually a very simple thing to understand: it's simply the way a greedy species functions while trying to satisfy their real and imaginary needs. Its laws are in fact behavioural laws, and nothing else.
Simple Minded

Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Simple Minded »

Endovelico wrote:Economics are actually a very simple thing to understand: it's simply the way a greedy species functions while trying to satisfy their real and imaginary needs. Its laws are in fact behavioural laws, and nothing else.
I think is is true that long term prediction of human behavior (four generations/80 years) is very easy. Short term periods, not so much, and then when a large percentage of the population mistakes the short term for a permanent condition........

Then people get into the mode that "the ideal of my herd is not the same as the ideal of your herd...." Steering the herd is effectively done by force for a short period.... then of course there are those pesky free thinking individuals who function more like cats than cows.... then there is the utter surprise of the leaders that some of the herd are so stupid, they don't recognize the wisdom of their superiors..... if we just had more time, more money, more weapons, we could either convince the stupid or eradicate them........

Look at what happens with the extremely small group on this site when we try to define "fair" or "social justice." under the most insulated of laboratory conditions.....

Hell for that matter, define "greedy." It will be interesting to see if any agree with your definition. or who thinks someone else on this forum is greedy, while they are certain they themselves are not.

Hell I know I'm not greedy, but those people.....
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Taboo
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Taboo »

So much hate for the poor social scientists...
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Endovelico
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Endovelico »

Greedy: "Excessively desirous of acquiring or possessing, especially wishing to possess more than what one needs or deserves."

Economics: "The science which studies the way scarce resources are allocated in order to satisfy unlimited needs."

If you put the two things together you will have no problems in understanding the way economics functions in practice. And you will understand why capitalism can never be the answer.
Simple Minded

Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Simple Minded »

Endovelico wrote:Greedy: "Excessively desirous of acquiring or possessing, especially wishing to possess more than what one needs or deserves."

Economics: "The science which studies the way scarce resources are allocated in order to satisfy unlimited needs."

If you put the two things together you will have no problems in understanding the way economics functions in practice. And you will understand why capitalism can never be the answer.
I think it is quite easy to understand how economics function in practice. I think the concept can be taught to most children of the age of ten in about 20 minutes. Those I know who actually experienced the phenomena of "parental oppression/education" have been watching the mania of the last few decades and wondering "How much longer can this nonsense go on?"

However when you are dealing with people who believe that some campaigner has special magic that enables everyone to live at the expense of someone else (those who believe in square circles and free lunches), neither reason nor mathematics apply.

Perhaps so few children were taught basics of living within your means, is why the mass hysteria of entitlement has swept the West for the last few decades? Perhaps that is why the recent reversion to historical means has caught so many by surprise?

Reality sucks for those who choose to delude themselves. They often choose to look at life as inherently injust. Those who attempt to circumvent reality, can't do it for as long as they would like.

Campaigners are salesmen, and as some have noted, after an extended period, salesmen start to believe their own lies.

I disagree with your premise of human as a selfish species, some are, some aren't. Even thruout the financial bubbles of the last 30 years, there have been large pockets of sanity and community spirit everywhere.

Parents are often the worst examples of greedy beings, always wanting more for their children then they had in their youth..... never satisfied if their children have the same subsistence level of living as "the poor." ;) Even my card carrying Socialist buddy from England, who often quoted Marx to end our discussions, experienced an epiphany when I replied to him "From your daughter according to her abilities, to me according to my needs. Please whisper this in her ear often........"

It is the classic conundrum of if people were perfect, any form of government, or none at all would work well. Since people are not perfect, government is necessary. Unfortunately, the pool of creatures available for administrators are also flawed.

I would imagine you find it as humorous to read Americans' negative opinions of socialism and communism, as I do to read Europeans' negative opinions of capitalism. Both often mistake corruption for the system they despise.

We all are excellent administrators in theory.... but in practise..... how to make the "others" recognize "OUR" superior wisdom and submit to the standards of life (or our personal delusions) we choose for them.....
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Enki
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Enki »

I want more for my children, but not more material possession. Toys grow on trees now in a way that they didn't when I was a child. We tell parents NOT to buy birthday presents at birthday parties and yet the children all seem to have so many toys. All of my childrens' friends' parents report a similar experience. The toys just kind of multiply like wet gremlins. We live in a society of such plenty that it is hard to control the acquisition of new possessions.

As someone posted to FB recently. It's amazing that we live in a society where extracting oil, shipping it to a factory, polymerizing it, shaping it into a spoon, packaging it, shipping it to the distribution center, shipping it to the grocery store, driving to the store and purchasing it, seems like less work than washing a spoon. This is vampiric economics. It is only possible if some are not adequately compensated for their labor somewhere in the chain.
Men often oppose a thing merely because they have had no agency in planning it, or because it may have been planned by those whom they dislike.
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Mr. Perfect
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Mr. Perfect »

A large portion of it is simply being educated and having some knowledge. Eg, it is amazing that the spoon in plastic can be delivered for so cheap. Endlessly amazing that humans can perform that near miracle feat. Emotional responses to this reality vary apparently.

Much of economics is not really disputed by anyone, narrow topics are and give the uneducated the impression of a confused discipline. Which is unfortunate because some come up with erroneous conclusions as a result.
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Endovelico
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Endovelico »

Simple Minded wrote: I disagree with your premise of human as a selfish species, some are, some aren't. Even thruout the financial bubbles of the last 30 years, there have been large pockets of sanity and community spirit everywhere.
You only need a few selfish individuals to upset the whole apple cart. At least in a capitalist society. If you want to take away the destructive power of greed, you will have to do away with the division between those who own the means of production and those who operate them. When owners are the workers and workers are the owners, you may start creating a less destructive society.
Simple Minded

Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Simple Minded »

Endovelico wrote: You only need a few selfish individuals to upset the whole apple cart. At least in a capitalist society.
Shirley, you are aware of a very few individuals upsetting the whole apple cart in non-capitalist societies, non?
Endovelico wrote: If you want to take away the destructive power of greed, you will have to do away with the division between those who own the means of production and those who operate them. When owners are the workers and workers are the owners, you may start creating a less destructive society.
May is the key word in the last sentence above. You may be right, in theory it sounds good. Difficult in practise on a scale larger than a couple dozen people.

Previously, you stated that humans are a greedy species. Now you plan to "take away the power of greed?" Gonna need a lot of guns and re-education camps aren't you? Fascinates me to hear those who advocate that human nature can be "fixed" by the proper administration, ie: "Us" in charge, not "Them."


Interestingly enough, people are both consumers and producers, so where financial transactions are volutary, things are not very destructive at all. Except for the self-destructive individuals, those who eat Twinkies instead of carrots...
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Endovelico »

Simple Minded wrote: Previously, you stated that humans are a greedy species. Now you plan to "take away the power of greed?" Gonna need a lot of guns and re-education camps aren't you? Fascinates me to hear those who advocate that human nature can be "fixed" by the proper administration, ie: "Us" in charge, not "Them."
"Plan to take away the DESTRUCTIVE power of greed..."

The idea is not to fix human nature, it's to take away most of the opportunities for that human nature to be destructive on a grand scale. By breaking up power centers in such a way that no single one will be able to affect the whole society. By transforming the capitalist firm in cooperatives, you will do away with large conglomerates and will destroy any firm's ability to be disruptive. By devolving most power to the local community you will do the same for politics. You may still have misuse of power, but on a scale which will not affect the whole community.
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by noddy »

Endovelico wrote:
Simple Minded wrote: Previously, you stated that humans are a greedy species. Now you plan to "take away the power of greed?" Gonna need a lot of guns and re-education camps aren't you? Fascinates me to hear those who advocate that human nature can be "fixed" by the proper administration, ie: "Us" in charge, not "Them."
"Plan to take away the DESTRUCTIVE power of greed..."

The idea is not to fix human nature, it's to take away most of the opportunities for that human nature to be destructive on a grand scale. By breaking up power centers in such a way that no single one will be able to affect the whole society. By transforming the capitalist firm in cooperatives, you will do away with large conglomerates and will destroy any firm's ability to be disruptive. By devolving most power to the local community you will do the same for politics. You may still have misuse of power, but on a scale which will not affect the whole community.
this is how nearly all new industries start out, lots of small groups all competing and innovating and growing the industry.

then .... some of them are hopeless (or unlucky) and go broke, while others join together as less ambitious groups cash up by selling their market share to more ambitious ones.. roll on a couple of years and you will only have the oligopoly of main players left.. it gets even more so when the legislation and government control of that industry makes the paperwork (legal and accounting) too difficult for creative type to bother with it... all the current players got to start their companies in the pre-legislation environment where you get to experiment and fail without much consequence, its only when it has consolidated into a "known" industry with government rules controlling it that the barriers to entry start going up and up.

the reality is that when people are actually presented with the responsibility and stress of being the bugger that has to make the choices and risks, that has to get the customers and keep them, that has to manage the staff and improve/sack the lazy/confused ones.... it all seems mighty attractive for someone else to have the sleepless nights whilst you get stable wage of *someone* elses risks and profits.

the only people that think running a small startup is easy are the ones who arent doing it, you are competing with large corporates and government departments which can offer far cruisier conditions for less work and thats why we are in the position we are in when it comes to "controlling greed"

its got nothing todo with conspiracy or a corrupt system, it has everything todo with the average human maximising their comfort with minimised stress and work.

if the big boys exploit it too much it will fallover and then we will get the fairer more competitive small industries popping back up again.. until they aggregate back into the new bunch of big boys who enjoy the power/stress whilst everyone else cashes up then drops out, as per normal.

you cant make cooperatives happen, they require motivated and ermm, cooperative people... all you can do is make sure government legislation isnt making them harder todo than they already are and then hope the culture is independant and creative enough to take advantage of it.

highly atomised and entitled people who cant even cooperate with themselves, its snot gunna happen.
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Simple Minded

Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Simple Minded »

Thanks Noddy!

Human nature always seems to be the biggest impediment to the utopian ideals of the True Believers. Which is why they always reach for the weapons to force cooperation/understanding.

"If only everyone was smart enough to recognize my superiority...."

As a local psychatrist told me "The individual who has a sense of entitlement, finds it almost impossible to be appreciative, greatful, or happy."

I blame parents more than society or the Bilderbergs.
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Endovelico »

noddy wrote:You cant make cooperatives happen, they require motivated and ermm, cooperative people... all you can do is make sure government legislation isnt making them harder todo than they already are and then hope the culture is independant and creative enough to take advantage of it.

highly atomised and entitled people who cant even cooperate with themselves, its snot gunna happen.
A government keen on changing the way things are could very well encourage cooperatives and an increase in local power. It could even cheat a bit and give to cooperatives tax breaks not available to capitalist firms. Small is beautiful and, most of all, is not dangerous to freedom and democracy. What you sacrifice on economies of scale you gain in legitimacy and in a decrease in conflictuality (hope this word exists in English...).
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by Enki »

The problem is the 'Too Big to Fail' mentality. If we allowed big companies to fail, then smaller entities would grow up through the cracks.
Men often oppose a thing merely because they have had no agency in planning it, or because it may have been planned by those whom they dislike.
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

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Robert Mundell, evil genius of the euro

For the architect of the euro, taking macroeconomics away from elected politicians and forcing deregulation were part of the plan
Greg Palast


The idea that the euro has "failed" is dangerously naive. The euro is doing exactly what its progenitor – and the wealthy 1%-ers who adopted it – predicted and planned for it to do.

That progenitor is former University of Chicago economist Robert Mundell. The architect of "supply-side economics" is now a professor at Columbia University, but I knew him through his connection to my Chicago professor, Milton Friedman, back before Mundell's research on currencies and exchange rates had produced the blueprint for European monetary union and a common European currency.

Mundell, then, was more concerned with his bathroom arrangements. Professor Mundell, who has both a Nobel Prize and an ancient villa in Tuscany, told me, incensed:

"They won't even let me have a toilet. They've got rules that tell me I can't have a toilet in this room! Can you imagine?"

As it happens, I can't. But I don't have an Italian villa, so I can't imagine the frustrations of bylaws governing commode placement.

But Mundell, a can-do Canadian-American, intended to do something about it: come up with a weapon that would blow away government rules and labor regulations. (He really hated the union plumbers who charged a bundle to move his throne.)

"It's very hard to fire workers in Europe," he complained. His answer: the euro.

The euro would really do its work when crises hit, Mundell explained. Removing a government's control over currency would prevent nasty little elected officials from using Keynesian monetary and fiscal juice to pull a nation out of recession.

"It puts monetary policy out of the reach of politicians," he said. "[And] without fiscal policy, the only way nations can keep jobs is by the competitive reduction of rules on business."

He cited labor laws, environmental regulations and, of course, taxes. All would be flushed away by the euro. Democracy would not be allowed to interfere with the marketplace – or the plumbing.

As another Nobelist, Paul Krugman, notes, the creation of the eurozone violated the basic economic rule known as "optimum currency area". This was a rule devised by Bob Mundell.

That doesn't bother Mundell. For him, the euro wasn't about turning Europe into a powerful, unified economic unit. It was about Reagan and Thatcher.

"Ronald Reagan would not have been elected president without Mundell's influence," once wrote Jude Wanniski in the Wall Street Journal. The supply-side economics pioneered by Mundell became the theoretical template for Reaganomics – or as George Bush the Elder called it, "voodoo economics": the magical belief in free-market nostrums that also inspired the policies of Mrs Thatcher.

Mundell explained to me that, in fact, the euro is of a piece with Reaganomics:

"Monetary discipline forces fiscal discipline on the politicians as well."

And when crises arise, economically disarmed nations have little to do but wipe away government regulations wholesale, privatize state industries en masse, slash taxes and send the European welfare state down the drain.

Thus, we see that (unelected) Prime Minister Mario Monti is demanding labor law "reform" in Italy to make it easier for employers like Mundell to fire those Tuscan plumbers. Mario Draghi, the (unelected) head of the European Central Bank, is calling for "structural reforms" – a euphemism for worker-crushing schemes. They cite the nebulous theory that this "internal devaluation" of each nation will make them all more competitive.

Monti and Draghi cannot credibly explain how, if every country in the Continent cheapens its workforce, any can gain a competitive advantage.
But they don't have to explain their policies; they just have to let the markets go to work on each nation's bonds. Hence, currency union is class war by other means.

The crisis in Europe and the flames of Greece have produced the warming glow of what the supply-siders' philosopher-king Joseph Schumpeter called "creative destruction". Schumpeter acolyte and free-market apologist Thomas Friedman flew to Athens to visit the "impromptu shrine" of the burnt-out bank where three people died after it was fire-bombed by anarchist protesters, and used the occasion to deliver a homily on globalization and Greek "irresponsibility".

The flames, the mass unemployment, the fire-sale of national assets, would bring about what Friedman called a "regeneration" of Greece and, ultimately, the entire eurozone. So that Mundell and those others with villas can put their toilets wherever they damn well want to.

Far from failing, the euro, which was Mundell's baby, has succeeded probably beyond its progenitor's wildest dreams.
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

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Enki wrote:The problem is the 'Too Big to Fail' mentality. If we allowed big companies to fail, then smaller entities would grow up through the cracks.
Amen. Too big to fail is an opinion, not a fact. Actually it's an excuse, the real reason is "so big and I benefit from it I can never allow it go away".
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

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The bulk of real economic wisdom was captured by your mother when you were two-years-old and she kept telling "Don't... touch... that...!" But nobody wants to hear that the best thing they could do is nothing, so we pay economists to invent excuses for us to tinker.

The thing I really don't understand about economics is how they manage to be so damn immune to the consequences of failure. They are so catastrophically wrong on such a regular basis, and yet everyone still listens to them as if they have anything interesting to say. Is there another profession, other than "predictor-of-The-Rapture" that gets so many second chances?
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

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Juggernaut Nihilism wrote:The bulk of real economic wisdom was captured by your mother when you were two-years-old and she kept telling "Don't... touch... that...!" But nobody wants to hear that the best thing they could do is nothing, so we pay economists to invent excuses for us to tinker.

The thing I really don't understand about economics is how they manage to be so damn immune to the consequences of failure. They are so catastrophically wrong on such a regular basis, and yet everyone still listens to them as if they have anything interesting to say. Is there another profession, other than "predictor-of-The-Rapture" that gets so many second chances?
Economics is a probabilistic science. In fact, in economics anything, literally ANYTHING, can happen. No matter how stupid you are, if you decide to forecast an economics situation, you know for sure that there is a chance, no matter how remote, that it will actually happen. Good economists are those who get it right once in a while. Politicians get away with the most incredibly stupid policies, because there is always a chance they may work. Look at the EU now. The chances that austerity will actually work are just about nihil. But people like that insufferable woman Merkel, who is as dumb as she is ignorant, know that there is a 0.001% chance it may work, so she has an excuse to go on...
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

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Juggernaut Nihilism wrote:The bulk of real economic wisdom was captured by your mother when you were two-years-old and she kept telling "Don't... touch... that...!" But nobody wants to hear that the best thing they could do is nothing, so we pay economists to invent excuses for us to tinker.

The thing I really don't understand about economics is how they manage to be so damn immune to the consequences of failure. They are so catastrophically wrong on such a regular basis, and yet everyone still listens to them as if they have anything interesting to say. Is there another profession, other than "predictor-of-The-Rapture" that gets so many second chances?
Prophets of man-made imminent doom?
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

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Bloomberg | How Wall Street Scams Counties Into Bankruptcy

Roll Stone - Taibbi | The Scam Wall Street Learned From the Mafia
How America's biggest banks took part in a nationwide bid-rigging conspiracy - until they were caught on tape
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by noddy »

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/10 ... should-be/
It should be obvious to even the most casual observer that economics is not a science. That this is not obvious to many is clear evidence that epistemology, the philosophy of knowledge, is little understood by economists. There is no possibility of repeating experiments because the “laboratory” conditions keep changing. As a consequence, there is no possibility of establishing causality, or at least not in a rigorous fashion. Predictive validity, therefore, cannot be achieved. As William Sherden has outlined the problem with economic predictions is that they do not work – or at least only work when the predictable happens. With surprising events, it is better to toss a coin:
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

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noddy wrote:http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/10 ... should-be/
It should be obvious to even the most casual observer that economics is not a science. That this is not obvious to many is clear evidence that epistemology, the philosophy of knowledge, is little understood by economists. There is no possibility of repeating experiments because the “laboratory” conditions keep changing. As a consequence, there is no possibility of establishing causality, or at least not in a rigorous fashion. Predictive validity, therefore, cannot be achieved. As William Sherden has outlined the problem with economic predictions is that they do not work – or at least only work when the predictable happens. With surprising events, it is better to toss a coin:
There is a classic syndrome in the social sciences called "physics envy". It even misunderstands the nature of physics and other physical sciences, at a complex level - let alone biological ones. Can you run a lab experiment, isolating the key variables, in cosmology or paleontology? Only if you are very very patient and long lived... :mrgreen: cosmology has more metaphysics than economics ever dreamt of, and i have had grim personal experience of how little biology/medical science can make predictions about the human brain. Yet refutable hypotheses can be set up, but with difficulty.

I would draw a major distinction between microeconomics and macro. The workings of markets are well understood, even issues like externalities, while macro is a mess. Micro can make statements which are both empirically true and non-intuitive, the most famous being Ricardo's law of comparative advantage.
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Re: The False Gods of Economics

Post by noddy »

pretty much - i only consider the easily testable stuff real science - the rest is voodoo and statistics.

the anti christian atheists carrying on like little popes with the latest statistics scare the hell out of me - same beast as the fundy christians but without the cultural experience of the european protestant/catholic situtation which they dismiss that as dumb religious stuff.. oh well, some lessons need relearning i spose.

i did do 2 years of economics at uni, seems like a lifetime ago now and luckily ive forgotten much of it - the last thing id want is more awareness of our bubble of bubbles with debts powered by debts.
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