Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Now, what news on the Rialto?

Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:01 am

Nonc Hilaire wrote:
Typhoon wrote:FT | Chinese shares plunged on the first trading session of the new year, with the Shenzhen market suffering its worst day in nine years and the blue-chip CSI 300 index slumping 7 per cent on weak manufacturing data, triggering newly minted circuit breakers.

Monday’s slide came after an official factory survey showed China's manufacturing sector shrank for a fifth consecutive month in December.

Investors were also nervous about the imminent expiration of a ban on stock sales by large shareholders, imposed at the height of last year’s market meltdown.


The purpose of a market is price discovery.

So-called circuit breakers and bans on stock sales only interfere with this process and can lead to additional panic.

Such actions are not unlike locking the doors in an auditorium after someone yells "Fire".


Agree on market closing but not circuit breakers. Those limit damage from the hft crowd from sniffing out stop loss orders and then capitalizing on the phony price cascade.


Sniffing out stop loss orders has been around as long as stop loss orders.

I don't think that HFT has much to due with today drop. More likely the usual "Sell, Mortimer, sell" and get me out at any price panic.

It is not clear to me that closing the markets is the way to proceed.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:29 am

i also thought they closed the market to stop the hot headed stampede, hoping that waiting a few days would allow calmer decisions to be made - im not sure it makes much of a difference either but it does help the government maintain its illusion of control.

we have more debt, not less, than during the GFC debt crisis, nothing has changed, all thats happened has been money printing stimulation, not recovery.

until such time as we actually get some wonderful new product or technological advance, or another 3rd world country manages to organise itself into massive growth like china did, we are in stagnation and debt destruction.

nothing can change this - the government thinks optimism is the horse and can be stimulated, while reality is that optimism is the cart and needs something to latch on to.

cant blame em for trying i spose.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Simple Minded » Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:59 pm

noddy wrote:i also thought they closed the market to stop the hot headed stampede, hoping that waiting a few days would allow calmer decisions to be made - im not sure it makes much of a difference either but it does help the government maintain its illusion of control.

we have more debt, not less, than during the GFC debt crisis, nothing has changed, all thats happened has been money printing stimulation, not recovery.

until such time as we actually get some wonderful new product or technological advance, or another 3rd world country manages to organise itself into massive growth like china did, we are in stagnation and debt destruction.

nothing can change this - the government thinks optimism is the horse and can be stimulated, while reality is that optimism is the cart and needs something to latch on to.

cant blame em for trying i spose.


Many, if not most, think optimism or pessimism result from wealth or poverty, respectively. I think they are reversing cause and effect. Pessimistic people do not spend or invest or prepare for a future they do not think exists. Optimistic people experiment and take risks.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:43 am

Simple Minded wrote:
noddy wrote:i also thought they closed the market to stop the hot headed stampede, hoping that waiting a few days would allow calmer decisions to be made - im not sure it makes much of a difference either but it does help the government maintain its illusion of control.

we have more debt, not less, than during the GFC debt crisis, nothing has changed, all thats happened has been money printing stimulation, not recovery.

until such time as we actually get some wonderful new product or technological advance, or another 3rd world country manages to organise itself into massive growth like china did, we are in stagnation and debt destruction.

nothing can change this - the government thinks optimism is the horse and can be stimulated, while reality is that optimism is the cart and needs something to latch on to.

cant blame em for trying i spose.


Many, if not most, think optimism or pessimism result from wealth or poverty, respectively. I think they are reversing cause and effect. Pessimistic people do not spend or invest or prepare for a future they do not think exists. Optimistic people experiment and take risks.


i wasnt thinking about the individual qualities that dictate ones approach to life, in that case yes, optimistic people will go for bigger risk/reward strategies.

one of course could argue that you are getting distracted by the winners and thusly ignoring the XX% of losers who took the risk, then crashed and burned - a lot more people try and get into the olympics than the 3 suckers who end up on the podium.

in this case however i was thinking in terms of elliot wave type aggregated cultural moods - when the government tries to push on a string and encourage more spending and optimism in a situation when job security and pay cuts are sucking the life out of it.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:12 am

Image

The way these stop trading so-called circuit breakers are set up seems to guarantee a race for the exits.

Get out asap, before the market is shut down by the authorities.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Thu Jan 07, 2016 7:38 am

Typhoon wrote:

Watched the movie. Riveting.

Along with govt encouragement, there were lots of private sectors crooks, none of whom were prosecuted.

Rather, they were rewarded instead.


The Big Short gets the financial crisis right.

A small group of pundits have criticized the movie, claiming that the fundamental narrative is wrong. The government, they say, is at fault, because it forced banks to give mortgages to lower-income people who couldn’t afford them. Barron’s blamed Bill Clinton, the Wall Street Journal blamed “uncertainty about how government would treat the biggest banks,” and Peter Wallison at the American Enterprise Institute went back to pursuing his white whale, blaming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for all that is wrong in the world.

Each of these arguments has been so thoroughly debunked over the years that they are not worth spilling more than a few pixels here. Yes, Clinton -- and George W. Bush after him -- both promoted housing for lower-income families. However, these were not the mortgages at the heart of the crisis. As my Bloomberg View colleague Noah Smith observes, “housing bubbles manifested in many countries that had no equivalent to the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bubble was driven by middle- and high-income borrowers, and the borrowers who drove up prices were primarily speculators rather than owner-occupiers.”
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Thu Jan 07, 2016 7:53 am

Typhoon wrote:Image

The way these stop trading so-called circuit breakers are set up seems to guarantee a race for the exits.

Get out asap, before the market is shut down by the authorities.


a big electronic retailer went under in australia yesterday - the first thing they did was freeze the christmas gift cards and raincheck payments so that the institutions could steal all that christmas present money off the poor people.

they kept on trading to sell all the stock but the folks that had already paid for it were not allowed to have it.

i wish i was joking.

it would be interesting to know who was out just before and after the market freezes - the cynic in me would suggest its the banks and institutions the gubmint has declared to big to fail (tm) and the freeze is nothing but a pause to let them get the orderly exit they require when the most money is still left in the sytem.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:47 pm

noddy wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Image

The way these stop trading so-called circuit breakers are set up seems to guarantee a race for the exits.

Get out asap, before the market is shut down by the authorities.


. . .

it would be interesting to know who was out just before and after the market freezes - the cynic in me would suggest its the banks and institutions the gubmint has declared to big to fail (tm) and the freeze is nothing but a pause to let them get the orderly exit they require when the most money is still left in the sytem.


Possibly. Although I think that presumes a higher level of awareness and control than actually exists.

The circuit breakers were introduced to given the market time to reflect and engage in proper self-criticism so as to understand as to why it is essential that market obey the directives and wishes of the Party.

More likely, TBTF would be applied post-fact.

All the big swinging dick institutions were caught with their pants down and their peckers in their hands during the 2008 crash.
A crash which transpired more slowly.

A couple did go down, the rest were made whole, at taxpayer expense, after the fact.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:49 pm

Tip of the hat to a friend:

Bill Gross | It's a Xanax world. [pdf]

The Romans gave their Plebian citizens a day at the Coliseum, and the French
royalty gave the Bourgeoisie a piece of figurative “cake”, so it may be true to form
that in the still prosperous developed economies of 2016, we provide Fantasy
Sports, cellphone game apps, sexting, and fast food to appease the masses.
Keep them occupied and distracted at all costs before they recognize that half of
the U.S. population doesn’t go to work in the morning and that their real wages
after conservatively calculated inflation have barely budged since the mid 1980’s.
Confuse them with demagogic and religious oriented political candidates to
believe that tomorrow will be a better day and hope that Ferguson, Missouri and
its lookalikes will fade to the second page or whatever it’s called these days in
new-age media.

Meanwhile, manipulate prices of interest rates and stocks to benefit corporations
and the wealthy while they feast on exorbitantly priced gluten-free pasta and
range-free chicken at Whole Foods, or if even more fortunate, pursue high rise
New York condos and private jets at Teterboro.


Robots. We'd better hope that robots become a mainstream part of the economy, especially with regards to caring for retirees.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Nonc Hilaire » Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:45 pm

A bear in a China shop!
“Christ has no body now but yours. Yours are the eyes through which he looks with compassion on this world. Yours are the feet with which he walks among His people to do good. Yours are the hands through which he blesses His creation.”

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Merica #3

Postby noddy » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:39 pm

Image

losers.

beaten by the chinks and the strayans in the only metric that counts.

checkout our household debt on overpriced sh1b0xes!

number 1.
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Re: Merica #3

Postby Simple Minded » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:43 pm

noddy wrote:Image

losers.

beaten by the chinks and the strayans in the only metric that counts.

checkout our household debt on overpriced sh1b0xes!

number 1.


guilty! :( As usual, people like me are lowering the curve. 8-)

What if I like being a loser? :?

On the plus side, our Big Brother eats 3X as much as your Big Brother! Maybe we need a queen?
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:49 pm

cant be queeny, canada's government is also suspiciously porcine.

your gubmint is the porkiest of all tho, cant be denied.
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Re: Merica #3

Postby Typhoon » Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:16 pm

noddy wrote:Image

losers.

beaten by the chinks and the strayans in the only metric that counts.

checkout our household debt on overpriced sh1b0xes!

number 1.


FT | FT on China upheaval

I agree that while the Chinese stock market crash is entertaining, it has little to do with the actual economy.

The 20% draw down in reserves is far more interesting and perhaps telling.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:27 pm

To follow on my last comment:

Economist | The yuan and the markets

Strains on the currency suggest that something is very wrong with China’s politics
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Sat Jan 16, 2016 12:53 am

.


http://www.wsj.com/articles/more-banks- ... 1452890416


Folks,

Last few yrs, FED in US and ECB Europe, central Banks, doing "Stress Test" for the Banks and other financial institutions.

Was wondering, if things going well, US pretty much in full employment, Europe recovering, Japan OK .. if so .. why all this "Stress Tests" ?

Well, folks, oil down and dropping dramatically, could hit 20 $/b and stay there for some time .. indication of world energy needs and economy .. notion, Oil over-production, rubbish .. what really happening is Oil demand not growing (maybe as fast as oil producers, drillers, were planing and "invested for").

Trillions of dollars have been borrowed (from Banks, or sold bonds) for buying "drilling rigs" (those UDW drilling rigs made in Korea cost $ 250+ m, all financed by Banks, now they worth scrap money) and Tankers and infrastructure .. they all were based on 80+ $/b and higher price.

These Trillions of Dollars credits are now "deeeeeep" under-water .. those bonds now selling with deep discounts.

A catastrophic, financial tsunami, coming towards us

Oil, Gas, metals, commodity in deeeeep trouble .. millions of jobs will be lost .. US economy already sputtering.

Those "Stress Test" were for days to come.

In Alberta, Canadian Oil country, it is real "fire sell", pretty much all in bankruptcy


Am astonished how FED's Janet Yellen and Fisher saying all fine, talking of raising interest rates, talking US not (yet) in recession.

Looks to me, this an economic war, each nation wanting to beat the other for "cost of doing business" .. meaning salaries, leasing rates etc all must come down .. meaning deflation, shrinking .. already happening.

The danger is, all "Capital wipe out" is in "capital goods, wealth generation" sector, the consumer still buying cars and houses, not aware of imminent danger ahead.

Wall Mart closing 300 stores, Macy letting go of 4500, GE to cut about 6,500 jobs in Europe, and and

Things will become very bad .. could be worst than 2008, probably much worst (as FED this time prepared for it)


http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-bank-st ... 1452886229

Financial stocks were rattled even as banks reported generally strong earnings, baffling some executives who said they see few signs of worry for the U.S. economy.



.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:50 pm

FT - Dalio | Pay attention to long-term debt cycle

Limits to spending growth financed by debt and money raises risks of policy ‘pushing on a string’
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Zack Morris » Thu Jan 28, 2016 12:56 am

Heracleum Persicum wrote:Was wondering, if things going well, US pretty much in full employment, Europe recovering, Japan OK .. if so .. why all this "Stress Tests" ?


"Why did we have to install all these fire alarms and carry out all those fire drills? I've never seen this building burn down."
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:10 am

Typhoon wrote:FT - Dalio | Pay attention to long-term debt cycle

Limits to spending growth financed by debt and money raises risks of policy ‘pushing on a string’


yah, its going to remain that way until the next big thing (tm) arrives and/or the debt is contained back to stagnation worthy levels.

the political will to acknowledge the latter is not even on the radar, so we can ignore it for the moment
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Fri Jan 29, 2016 3:39 pm

FT | Bank of Japan adopts negative interest rates

The Bank of Japan has slashed interest rates to minus 0.1 per cent in a move that shocked markets and adds a new dimension to its record monetary stimulus.


F*ck.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:02 pm

Typhoon wrote:FT | Bank of Japan adopts negative interest rates

The Bank of Japan has slashed interest rates to minus 0.1 per cent in a move that shocked markets and adds a new dimension to its record monetary stimulus.


F*ck.



They want to boost stocks

Now the time to buy stocks

Specific stocks :lol:

.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:41 am

Typhoon wrote:FT | Bank of Japan adopts negative interest rates

The Bank of Japan has slashed interest rates to minus 0.1 per cent in a move that shocked markets and adds a new dimension to its record monetary stimulus.


F*ck.



buahahahahhaha.

the current finanical system might not be dead but it sure does smell funny.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Mr. Perfect » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:01 am

Typhoon wrote:FT | Bank of Japan adopts negative interest rates

The Bank of Japan has slashed interest rates to minus 0.1 per cent in a move that shocked markets and adds a new dimension to its record monetary stimulus.


F*ck.

You were warned.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Mr. Perfect » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:09 am

Told you. It's amazing to be always right.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... teran.html

World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears central bank veteran
Exclusive: Situation worse than it was in 2007, says chairman of the OECD's review committee

The global financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability, a leading monetary theorist has warned.

"The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up," said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

"Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief," he said.

"It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something," he told The Telegraph on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"The only question is whether we are able to look reality in the eye and face what is coming in an orderly fashion, or whether it will be disorderly. Debt jubilees have been going on for 5,000 years, as far back as the Sumerians."
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:54 pm

:lol:

Predictions about the future are like assholes. Everyone has one.

Let's see what actually happens before declaring "mission accomplished".

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