Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Now, what news on the Rialto?
Mr. Perfect
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Are OECD countries going to negative interest rates because it is normal.
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noddy
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

i thought they already have been for quite some time if you add real inflation to the 1-2% interest rates which all the OECD central banks are sitting on

japan has just made it explicit, thats all.
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Typhoon
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Mr. Perfect wrote:Are OECD countries going to negative interest rates because it is normal.
It is unusual.

However, interest rates going negative is not a systemic collapse.
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Typhoon
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

noddy wrote:i thought they already have been for quite some time if you add real inflation to the 1-2% interest rates which all the OECD central banks are sitting on

japan has just made it explicit, thats all.
Quite.
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Parodite
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Parodite »

Typhoon wrote:
Typhoon wrote:5HkbSbwEPNc

Watched the movie. Riveting.

Along with govt encouragement, there were lots of private sectors crooks, none of whom were prosecuted.

Rather, they were rewarded instead.
The Big Short gets the financial crisis right.
A small group of pundits have criticized the movie, claiming that the fundamental narrative is wrong. The government, they say, is at fault, because it forced banks to give mortgages to lower-income people who couldn’t afford them. Barron’s blamed Bill Clinton, the Wall Street Journal blamed “uncertainty about how government would treat the biggest banks,” and Peter Wallison at the American Enterprise Institute went back to pursuing his white whale, blaming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for all that is wrong in the world.

Each of these arguments has been so thoroughly debunked over the years that they are not worth spilling more than a few pixels here. Yes, Clinton -- and George W. Bush after him -- both promoted housing for lower-income families. However, these were not the mortgages at the heart of the crisis. As my Bloomberg View colleague Noah Smith observes, “housing bubbles manifested in many countries that had no equivalent to the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bubble was driven by middle- and high-income borrowers, and the borrowers who drove up prices were primarily speculators rather than owner-occupiers.”
Saw the movie too, was worth watching.
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Typhoon
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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YMix
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by YMix »

Just came across this guy. It's amusing to see that he's virtually unknown to the Anglosphere (according to the first two pages of Google search results).
Mastering The Art Of Bosslessness

[...]

The way Zobrist tells it, "I came in the day after I became CEO, and gathered the people. I told them 'tomorrow when you come to work, you do not work for me or for a boss. You work for your customer. I don't pay you. They do. Every customer has its own factory now. You do what is needed for the customer.'" And with that single stroke, he eliminated the central control: personnel, product development, purchasing—all gone.

Twenty teams were formed on the spot, based on knowledge of the customer: Fiat, Volvo, Volkswagen, etc. Each team was responsible not only for the customer, but for its own human resources, purchasing, and product development.

[...]
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
noddy
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

i think you will find that sacking all the middle management and running a lean and mean company is not particularly interesting or relevant to the anglosphere.

its no new and exciting, it was taught as mainstream economics in the 80's for me.

you can read all the threads on how modern companies arent sharing the loot around with the general population if you want the version with out gibberish.
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YMix
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by YMix »

I posted this because it sounded interesting and because the guy speaks from experience. I have no idea whether it's new or not.
you can read all the threads on how modern companies arent sharing the loot around with the general population if you want the version with out gibberish.
?
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

sorry, i automatically filter all the pleasant sounding words down to the outcomes,i have zero ability to listen to pleasant sounding words.

the article is presented as something noble, with the workers being directly responsible for the customer, which is also EXACTLY the same thing as a company cutting back its staffing levels to the bare miniumun required to give the customer a product.

tis funny how the same thing can be many things, depending ons the rhetoric its presented with.

you can read all the threads on how modern companies arent sharing the loot around with the general population if you want the version with out gibberish.
company makes X, middle management costs Y, product producers cost Z, so directors get X - (Y+Z) as profit

eliminate Y

directors get X-Z


Z doesnt change in this system, just less Y, because Y is the endangered breed in the new world, we dont need stinky paper shufflers no more.

mayhaps im overly cynical. i dont think so.


---

this post is brought to you by st bernardus 12.
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YMix
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by YMix »

I am pleased to understand how little corporate experience I have. I definitely don't begrudge you your wisdom in these matters.
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.


The Credit Collapse


Excellent Bloomberg analysis what happened


.
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YMix
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
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YMix
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by YMix »

Drones will take $127bn worth of human work by 2020, PwC says

But new research suggests delivery is just one small way drones are going to replace humans. The tiny airborne vessels will soon clean windows on skyscrapers, verify insurance claims and spray pesticide on crops.

The global market for drones, valued at around $2 billion today, will replace up to $127 billion worth of business services and human labour over the next four years, according to a new research by consulting firm PwC.
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
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Nonc Hilaire
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Accuracy of IMF economic forcasts

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Image
“Christ has no body now but yours. Yours are the eyes through which he looks with compassion on this world. Yours are the feet with which he walks among His people to do good. Yours are the hands through which he blesses His creation.”

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Re: Accuracy of IMF economic forcasts

Post by Simple Minded »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:Image
Those who can't predict well, should predict often.
noddy
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

if you consider the last 30 years a credit boom then the talking heads which are less than 40 years old become amusing in their sense of just what normal is.

in my country the professional predictors use run a 10 year rolling average and if they are being extra keen and pretending to be super accurate they move to a 20 year rolling average.

buzzz. wrong answer.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Accuracy of IMF economic forcasts

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:.

Image

.

World in a "deflation" .. that for a reason .. prices have to come down for the retiree, that is what governments want .. all world central banks doing is to soften the fall of prices .. BS money making thing of the past, only "value creating" will make long term money .. a lot of (dumm) wealth will be wiped out, already happening.
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Nonc Hilaire
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Image
“Christ has no body now but yours. Yours are the eyes through which he looks with compassion on this world. Yours are the feet with which he walks among His people to do good. Yours are the hands through which he blesses His creation.”

Teresa of Ávila
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Typhoon
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:Image
I think this is a case of correlation is not causation.

The rise of Japan Inc. started at about the same time, which decimated much of the US consumer electronics industry, and posed a significant challenge to the US automotive industry along with the US steel industry.

This was repeated with Taiwan, S Korea, and finally China.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:.

Image

.


What this chart in reality means, is : after Nixon cancelled Gold peg for U$, American FED started printing money like there no tomorrow, in lien language, "shorted" Dollar .. FED Knew Dollar will be "worth less the next day" , so, best is sell dollar "today" and buy asset (foreign assets, currencies) before Dollar is less worth next day (1 U$-Dollar was 4.2 Swiss Frank Johnson time - Now, Swiss Frank @ paar with U$) .. FED shorting (meaning printing) Dollar since .. in purchase power term, U$ is now worth cents.

US presidents knew this (and racing each other for bigger deficit, FED shorting of U$) .. Reagan, Bush used to say when foreigners so id*ot buying American Dollars (meaning financing American deficit, buying the T-Bills), let them be my guest.

In fact, FED selling, SORTING, Dollar, has made America rich and foreigners poor.


.
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YMix
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by YMix »

Building robot McDonald's staff 'cheaper' than hiring workers on minimum wage

[...]

Former CEO Ed Rensi said: "I was at the National Restaurant Show yesterday and if you look at the robotic devices that are coming into the restaurant industry.

"It’s cheaper to buy a $35,000 (£24,000) robotic arm than it is to hire an employee who’s inefficient making $15 (£10.20) an hour bagging French fries.

"It's nonsense and it’s very destructive and it’s inflationary and it’s going to cause a job loss across this country like you’re not going to believe."

[...]
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
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Nonc Hilaire
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

YMix wrote:
Building robot McDonald's staff 'cheaper' than hiring workers on minimum wage

[...]

Former CEO Ed Rensi said: "I was at the National Restaurant Show yesterday and if you look at the robotic devices that are coming into the restaurant industry.

"It’s cheaper to buy a $35,000 (£24,000) robotic arm than it is to hire an employee who’s inefficient making $15 (£10.20) an hour bagging French fries.

"It's nonsense and it’s very destructive and it’s inflationary and it’s going to cause a job loss across this country like you’re not going to believe."

[...]
I think some restaurant owners will be surprised when people simply stop coming to restaurants that replace people with computers. The one drive through fast food restaurant we frequent has even stopped using the speaker system entirely and has hired two people extra to stand outside and take orders personally using iPads.

I notice more people are avoiding the computerized self-check out lines at stores and deriding the self-checkout users too.
“Christ has no body now but yours. Yours are the eyes through which he looks with compassion on this world. Yours are the feet with which he walks among His people to do good. Yours are the hands through which he blesses His creation.”

Teresa of Ávila
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Simple Minded »

Nonc Hilaire wrote: I think some restaurant owners will be surprised when people simply stop coming to restaurants that replace people with computers. The one drive through fast food restaurant we frequent has even stopped using the speaker system entirely and has hired two people extra to stand outside and take orders personally using iPads.

I notice more people are avoiding the computerized self-check out lines at stores and deriding the self-checkout users too.
Chic-Filet does that during the busy periods. it will be interesting to see the generational breakdown of who visits automated restaurants and who does not.

Implementers of automation could advertise that we employ few people at a higher wages to counter negative publicity.

chances are, like everything else, price will be the determining factor for most consumers.
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Typhoon
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:
YMix wrote:
Building robot McDonald's staff 'cheaper' than hiring workers on minimum wage

[...]

Former CEO Ed Rensi said: "I was at the National Restaurant Show yesterday and if you look at the robotic devices that are coming into the restaurant industry.

"It’s cheaper to buy a $35,000 (£24,000) robotic arm than it is to hire an employee who’s inefficient making $15 (£10.20) an hour bagging French fries.

"It's nonsense and it’s very destructive and it’s inflationary and it’s going to cause a job loss across this country like you’re not going to believe."

[...]
I think some restaurant owners will be surprised when people simply stop coming to restaurants that replace people with computers. The one drive through fast food restaurant we frequent has even stopped using the speaker system entirely and has hired two people extra to stand outside and take orders personally using iPads.

I notice more people are avoiding the computerized self-check out lines at stores and deriding the self-checkout users too.
Interesting.

In Japan, the auto self-check option is becoming more common.

I see people using the self-check out at the Life ["Raifu"] supermarket all the time,
no avoidance and no derision, not even a disapproving glance.

I would be surprised if self-check out does not become universal.
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