Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Now, what news on the Rialto?
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Endovelico
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Endovelico »

noddy wrote:another variation on the discussions we had a while back.

here to there is still a long long way off.
It's all pretty old stuff and trying to make it appear new is a bit pathetic...

If most work can be automated and there is only occupation for 10% of the population, either the remaining 90% learn to live happily and not destructively in leisure, or the species will adjust and only the 10% will remain. Maybe some of you may want to go back to Asimov and his planet Solaria to see how it might be... Expansion throughout the Universe doesn't seem viable so just forget it. Besides, it would only postpone the day of reckoning...
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

in my world the pressures on the status quo come from the left and the right, they only squabble over small details, neither wants magor structural change.

as such, it will be bloody and violent revolution or it will be oppressive zoo's like judge dredd.. hard to tell which is more likely.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

MW-DG107_home_s_20150223103408_ZH.jpg
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/used-m ... =countdown



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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by HAL 10000 »


This bubble, if it exists, must be almost exclusively in the domain of the very wealthy investors who directly invest in new tech companies that are not yet public. But then as a class, these upper class investors would not lose money if these companies go bankrupt because only leveraged money evaporates, the cash investment done by the rich who buys a piece of the company simply goes to the bank account of another person who often happens to be rich. (This is just like a conservation law similar to the continuity equation, if you like fluid mechanics.) This is not the kind of money that middle class investors lose in mutual funds and monetized mortgage obligations that wiped out the middle class during the previous crash.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the tech bubble of 1998-2000 was a great benefit to the overall economy because although most internet companies went bankrupt in 2000-2003, a decade later these technologies started to mature and information is gradually becoming affordable and available to everyone. Within a couple of decades, online universities will begin to compete with traditional colleges and perhaps even graduate schools, a substantial portion of science and engineering is already becoming simulation exercises or thought experiments where the scratchpad is the computer. I have bought nearly a thousand books online, based on the articles and recommendations that I have read online to decide if the book is worth reading, and in many cases the recommendations were accurate and my choice was good. Thus, the tech bubble of 2000 that you mentioned, turned out to be a boon for humanity.

Here is an article that says that despite all my previous complaints about the rising inequality and the top % that are getting more powerful, the fact is that thanks to technological innovation in many parts of the world the inequality is actually becoming a lot less bad and the quality of life is steadily improving (thanks to some higher tax brackets that result in redistribution also):

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablo ... st-poorest
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Parodite
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Parodite »

HAL 10000 wrote:

This bubble, if it exists, must be almost exclusively in the domain of the very wealthy investors who directly invest in new tech companies that are not yet public. But then as a class, these upper class investors would not lose money if these companies go bankrupt because only leveraged money evaporates, the cash investment done by the rich who buys a piece of the company simply goes to the bank account of another person who often happens to be rich. (This is just like a conservation law similar to the continuity equation, if you like fluid mechanics.) This is not the kind of money that middle class investors lose in mutual funds and monetized mortgage obligations that wiped out the middle class during the previous crash.
I think not many people bother much about very rich investors investing their own private money in whatever business and be successful.. or suffer a personal bubble burst. The problem with bubbles occurs only when it is not their private value at stake.. but big money of others. Notably the savings of millions of citizens, their pension funds. Just as no one cares if a rich goon looses all his own money in a casino. But going to a casino with money of other people, who are mostly not even aware that this is what they do.. is when bursting bubbles can get very nasty. Investment banks come to mind, speculating banks, derivative Ponzi scheming banks...

A simple solution is to not allow any investor/bank invest or fool around with other peoples money without their private money also being sufficiently exposed to the risk of the investments they engage in.
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Endovelico
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Endovelico »

Image

:D :D :D
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

16-trillion-woman.jpg
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Markets and the FOMC – the Game of Chicken


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Typhoon
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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YMix
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by YMix »

"Here, even the young and poor can feel as though they are a Hiro."
Fixed.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Silly article. Roleplay/participative street theatre has been an essential part of New Orleans Mardi Gras for a long time. People are just catching on to how much fun it is for adults to simply play and pretend. There was a segment of D&D that was into roleplay in the seventies.

Cosplay is just bigger, better and less dangerous.
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Typhoon
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Good rebuttal.

Can't have our worker drones enjoying themselves by dressing up.
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Typhoon
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

YMix wrote:
"Here, even the young and poor can feel as though they are a Hiro."
Fixed.
:wink: Very good.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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Some perspective on the current "bond rout" and "surging yields":

Image
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

WSJ | Chinese Investors Are Staying on the Risky Margins
China’s rocking stock market has encouraged typically conservative investors to embrace leverage.

They are borrowing money to buy stocks and ride a rally that has seen the Shanghai Composite Index more than double in a year.
Image
Margin positions in China have already exceeded those in bubble-era Japan and are equivalent to peak levels in South Korea in the 1990s, according to Macquarie. Margin trading as a percentage of total market capitalization is still below the 4.6% peak recorded in Taiwan during the tech bubble. Equity margin financing through brokers is 3.4% of market cap in China, compared with 2.4% in the U.S., official data show.
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noddy
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

buahaha.

my country waits with bated breath.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Why Liquidity-Starved Markets Fear the Worst
Talk to almost any banker, investor or hedge-fund manager today and one topic is likely to dominate the conversation. It isn’t Greece, or the U.S. economy, or China, let alone the U.K.’s referendum on European Union membership. It is the lack of liquidity in the markets and what this might mean for the world economy—and their businesses.

Market veterans say they have never experienced conditions like it. Banks have become so reluctant to make markets that it has become hard to execute large trades even in the vast foreign-exchange and government-bond markets without moving prices, raising fears investors will take unexpectedly large losses when they try to sell.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

FT | Why China is blowing an equity bubble
High valuations will make it easier and cheaper to recapitalise state-owned groups
If accurate, then rather clever on the part of the status-quo.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Azrael »

Typhoon wrote:FT | Why China is blowing an equity bubble
High valuations will make it easier and cheaper to recapitalise state-owned groups
If accurate, then rather clever on the part of the status-quo.
So they're having foreign suckers bail them out.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by noddy »

unlike the hysterical commentators who get distracted by the shiny numbers i would expect the chinese government to be acutely aware of who actually owns/control the thing more than how many splinderfroppfarts its worth.

as for the larger question on if they can manage the transition from being the worlds factory to being a middle class consumer economy, thats still an unknowable i think.

the game between the corrupt 'haves' that dont want the status quo to change and these with other opinions is hardly a predictable one, the timeframes can be months or decades.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Simple Minded »

Azrael wrote:
Typhoon wrote:FT | Why China is blowing an equity bubble
High valuations will make it easier and cheaper to recapitalise state-owned groups
If accurate, then rather clever on the part of the status-quo.
So they're having foreign suckers bail them out.
Foreigners always buy in big close to the top of the market. Very reliable indicator.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Azrael wrote:
Typhoon wrote:FT | Why China is blowing an equity bubble
High valuations will make it easier and cheaper to recapitalise state-owned groups
If accurate, then rather clever on the part of the status-quo.
So they're having foreign suckers bail them out.
That would seem to be the case. Along with local punters.

Reminds me of the joke about MItsubishi buying the iconic Rockefeller Center during the J-Bubble era.

"Yeah, so we sold them the Rockefeller, but we sold retail."
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