Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Mr. Perfect » Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:13 pm

The market is discovering prices as we speak.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:51 am

Mr. Perfect wrote:The market is discovering prices as we speak.


Indeed.

QE? The US govt buying shares? The US Fed adding dead beat junk to it's books.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:53 am

DNB | US Millenials and Real Estate

[Interesting article. However, the comments are the usual Zero Hidiots.]
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Mr. Perfect » Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:03 am

Typhoon wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:The market is discovering prices as we speak.


Indeed.

QE? The US govt buying shares? The US Fed adding dead beat junk to it's books.

A link to Chinese markets would be the relevant link.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:00 pm

Mr. Perfect wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:The market is discovering prices as we speak.


Indeed.

QE? The US govt buying shares? The US Fed adding dead beat junk to it's books.

A link to Chinese markets would be the relevant link.


The obvious point is the the US managed to [eventually] prop up it's stock markets through massive intervention,
so it is possible that China may be able to do so the same.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:01 pm

USA:

Image

Who is going to buy the McMansions so that the Boomers can retire?

Overseas Chinese money? :wink:
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:52 am

not just chinese, any middle class sucker from another country that brings sweet sweet cash in to prop up the failing economy - the youth and sub middle class in the host country are just lazy and stupid for not being a rich foreigner.

this i believe is the standard belief system of the left and right political class in the modern west.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Mr. Perfect » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:50 am

Typhoon wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:The market is discovering prices as we speak.


Indeed.

QE? The US govt buying shares? The US Fed adding dead beat junk to it's books.

A link to Chinese markets would be the relevant link.


The obvious point is the the US managed to [eventually] prop up it's stock markets through massive intervention,
so it is possible that China may be able to do so the same.

Not all interventions are the same, the US being QE (inflation of stocks. Everyone is wondering where the inflation is, I found it), Chinese is "buying" stocks, or were, or were going to. Media reports conflict.

The Chinese version doesn't work, while the US version only works for a few years to a decade. Either way the market will discover the price.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Mr. Perfect » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:52 am

Typhoon wrote:USA:

Image

Who is going to buy the McMansions so that the Boomers can retire?

Overseas Chinese money? :wink:

Either nobody or TARP II, depending on political conditions at the time. Welcome back from pangloss land. I missed you.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:24 pm

Mr. Perfect wrote: . . . Welcome back from pangloss land. I missed you.


:lol:
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Zack Morris » Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:26 pm

Mr. Perfect wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:The market is discovering prices as we speak.


Indeed.

QE? The US govt buying shares? The US Fed adding dead beat junk to it's books.

A link to Chinese markets would be the relevant link.


The obvious point is the the US managed to [eventually] prop up it's stock markets through massive intervention,
so it is possible that China may be able to do so the same.

Not all interventions are the same, the US being QE (inflation of stocks. Everyone is wondering where the inflation is, I found it), Chinese is "buying" stocks, or were, or were going to. Media reports conflict.

The Chinese version doesn't work, while the US version only works for a few years to a decade. Either way the market will discover the price.


Sure, and then it will soar higher than ever before. The optimists have always been right. Pessimism is intellectually seductive. It sounds wiser because it plays to our instinctive fears. But pessimists are virtually never correct; certainly not in the long run.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:19 am

Zack Morris wrote:Sure, and then it will soar higher than ever before. The optimists have always been right. Pessimism is intellectually seductive. It sounds wiser because it plays to our instinctive fears. But pessimists are virtually never correct; certainly not in the long run.


people who lived in through the ww1, depression and then ww2 might have reason to disagree with that, the long run blurs out alot of shitty periods.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:14 pm

.


The American Dream Is Broken


Indeed, the super-rich are the only people who have profited from the considerable economic growth in the US in recent decades.

Since the last Wall Street collapse in 2008, 58 percent of the income gains have been in the top one percent of earners in the US.

In 2013, the top 25 hedge fund managers in the country enjoyed more than $24 billion in earnings -- the total amount earned by 533,000 teachers at public schools. Of course, acceptance of differences is part of this country's collective mentality. And Americans are much more willing to admire the success of their neighbors than their counterparts in Germany might be. But even by American standards, the shifts that have taken place in recent years are grotesque. They are destroying the moral fabric of society. The old chestnut that anyone can make it to the top, once known as the "American Dream," rings hollow today. Socialist Sanders and billionaire Trump both say the American Dream is broken.



.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Simple Minded » Sun Sep 13, 2015 11:56 pm

noddy wrote:
Zack Morris wrote:Sure, and then it will soar higher than ever before. The optimists have always been right. Pessimism is intellectually seductive. It sounds wiser because it plays to our instinctive fears. But pessimists are virtually never correct; certainly not in the long run.


people who lived in through the ww1, depression and then ww2 might have reason to disagree with that, the long run blurs out alot of shitty periods.


Luckily, in the long run, we're all dead! So, really, only a few decades matter to most people.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:19 am

Simple Minded wrote:So, really, only a few decades matter to most people.


the state of the economy during your 30-50 age bracket is the difference between retiring nicely and living under a bridge.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby noddy » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:42 am

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/09 ... /#comments


from the comments

The choices are simple:

1. Encourage more loan creation (low rates are the primary technique) and as the only things banks will accept as security are homes that means driving up house prices is essential to maintaining demand for fresh loans.

Keep in mind that we are not talking about dollar for dollar due to fact that interest accrues on debt. We are talking creating dollar + interest for dollar. We have to create more debt year after year to replace the money lost when loans are repaid and to ensure there is enough new money to repay the interest on the outstanding existing debts.

2. Have the government run a deficit (say by cutting taxes on earned income) that is printed not borrowed (Yes – I know in our current interest rate targeting system govt borrowing effectively means printing anyway as without fancy foot work by the RBA behind the scenes govt borrowing would put upward pressure on interest rates)

No guesses for working out which of the two options is the preferred approach of 9 out of 10 western orthodox economists.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Tue Sep 15, 2015 9:50 pm

.


Number of homeless students in U.S. has doubled since before the recession


Record number of homeless children enrolled in public schools



The number of homeless children in public schools has doubled since before the recession, reaching a record national total of 1.36 million in the 2013-2014 school year, according to new federal data.



don't want hurt feelings, better say nothin


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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Mr. Perfect » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:18 pm

Zack Morris wrote:Sure, and then it will soar higher than ever before. The optimists have always been right. Pessimism is intellectually seductive. It sounds wiser because it plays to our instinctive fears. But pessimists are virtually never correct; certainly not in the long run.

So said the Romans et al.

And by your logic we're all dead in the long run.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Mr. Perfect » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:18 pm

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.


The American Dream Is Broken


Indeed, the super-rich are the only people who have profited from the considerable economic growth in the US in recent decades.

Since the last Wall Street collapse in 2008, 58 percent of the income gains have been in the top one percent of earners in the US.

In 2013, the top 25 hedge fund managers in the country enjoyed more than $24 billion in earnings -- the total amount earned by 533,000 teachers at public schools. Of course, acceptance of differences is part of this country's collective mentality. And Americans are much more willing to admire the success of their neighbors than their counterparts in Germany might be. But even by American standards, the shifts that have taken place in recent years are grotesque. They are destroying the moral fabric of society. The old chestnut that anyone can make it to the top, once known as the "American Dream," rings hollow today. Socialist Sanders and billionaire Trump both say the American Dream is broken.



.

I told people not to vote for obama.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:11 am

Mr. Perfect wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:.


The American Dream Is Broken


Indeed, the super-rich are the only people who have profited from the considerable economic growth in the US in recent decades.

Since the last Wall Street collapse in 2008, 58 percent of the income gains have been in the top one percent of earners in the US.

In 2013, the top 25 hedge fund managers in the country enjoyed more than $24 billion in earnings -- the total amount earned by 533,000 teachers at public schools. Of course, acceptance of differences is part of this country's collective mentality. And Americans are much more willing to admire the success of their neighbors than their counterparts in Germany might be. But even by American standards, the shifts that have taken place in recent years are grotesque. They are destroying the moral fabric of society. The old chestnut that anyone can make it to the top, once known as the "American Dream," rings hollow today. Socialist Sanders and billionaire Trump both say the American Dream is broken.



.


I told people not to vote for obama.

.



American presidents have no power over economy

.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Parodite » Thu Sep 17, 2015 3:20 pm

Dutch besteller also available in english end this month.

‘Swimming with Sharks’, by Joris Luyendijk

Review by Jonathan Ford

A Dutch journalist investigates the City of London — and discovers that the financial crisis has done little to curb its appetite for excess

It has become common since the financial crisis for people to opine confidently and unfavourably about the motivations and morals of those in the financial sector. Banks are “casinos” and those who work in them “spivs” and “wide boys”. This may be an understandable reaction to all those unearned bonuses, the evasions of responsibility for the meltdown, and the dodgy payment protection insurance they’ve sold us. But how many really know what goes on inside the doors of a large international bank — or, indeed, the minds of those we condemn?

Bob Diamond, the unlamented former chief executive of Barclays, once defined the culture of a bank as “how people behave when no one is watching”. He was right in one sense: we know but scraps about the mores of these vital institutions. It is only when scandals break that we see the emails — and glean a little of what really goes on behind their discreet City façades. Generally, of course, the revelations aren’t pretty. Few will be impressed by messages containing promises to crack open some Bollinger in return for a dodgy quote on the Libor interest rate, or the bragging banter of a rogue trader.

But are such exchanges representative? It is not just a question of testing our prejudices. There is a more important issue at stake: the safety and soundness of our creaking financial system. Should we believe bank bosses when they talk of imposing high ethical standards and having (as Diamond claimed to have) a zero-tolerance policy for “jerks”? Or do we still live in the testosterone-fuelled world described by financial journalists such as Michael Lewis; in which those who expect loyalty are advised to get a dog.

If we are to believe Joris Luyendijk, there is bad news: it is the latter. A Dutch journalist with more experience of Gaza than Threadneedle Street, he was parachuted into the City of London on a mission to find out more about the bankers. The question he set himself was simple: how, after the shaming they have endured since the crisis, can “these people live with themselves?” Swimming with Sharks is the testimony from nearly 100 anonymised interviews that took place in an 18-month period from late 2011, and were first published on his banking blog for the Guardian.

It would be wrong to say that Luyen­dijk came to the task without preconceptions. The Netherlands had its own acute financial crisis and bankers are barely better loved in Amsterdam than in London. But like the best recording angels, he not only asks the “dumb” questions. Luyendijk is also willing to weigh open-mindedly the answers. Indeed, it is his willingness to see the good in his subjects that gives his final conclusion greater force.

The book praises some aspects of modern finance. No longer is the City riddled with nepotism and prejudice: it is tolerant and international. Investment banks have diversity days and LGBT groups. The glass ceiling may still exist but it is cracking. “Some of the best traders are now women,” says one interviewee. “Trading is no longer a balls job. It’s a brains job.”

But as Luyendijk talks his way deeper into the financial world, the doubts creep in. No one seems to acknowledge any responsibility for the 2008 crisis. That is to some extent a function of the specialisms within banking, which allow each individual to point the finger at someone else. But it is also down to the culture. Far from curbing the industry’s mercenary nature, the crisis has, if anything, reinforced it. Bankers are ever more vulnerable to “the call” from HR summoning them for the sack. Such a nerve-racking regime cannot but affect their behaviour. “If you can be out of the door in five minutes, your horizon becomes five minutes,” says one.

Meanwhile, the dreary imperatives of shareholder value mean that little matters to management other than the achievement of revenue targets. The best way to bring in money is still to design complex financial products or trading strategies — the risk of which sits principally on the shoulders of distant and unknowing investors. The reliance on so-called “quants” and their sophisticated algorithmic computer models means these are not only incomprehensible to outsiders but to many managers as well. Sales tactics are informed by a pervasive culture of amorality in which everything is permitted that is not illegal.

It is legitimate to question at this point whether Luyendijk’s subjects may be overdoing the gloom. Regulations have been tightened since the crisis. Even the most recidivist bank must be tiring of paying vast fines for mis-selling. He admits that the nature of the contact limited his ability to check on each story’s veracity. He might have included exaggeration or even virtue signalling.

That said, many of his sources seem to reach a similar conclusion. The modern investment bank is not really capable of changing its behaviour, they claim. That is because it is barely a cohesive institution at all. “There’s very limited middle management,” observes one interviewee. “It’s a huge machinery for executing transactions and deals but you’re effectively on your own to make those happen. Everybody — and I mean everybody — is focused on business, on ‘revenue responsibility’.”

Little seems to stand in the path of this juggernaut. Luyendijk dismisses compliance officers and regulators as paper tigers (5,000 regulators to 1m financiers is “not exactly man-to-man marking”). As for the bankers themselves, they seem trapped in a system they cannot control. He divides them into various miserable categories. There are “teeth-grinders” who hate the job but need the money, and “neutrals” who see the wrong but can’t see the point in making a stand. For the most part Luyendijk is sympathetic. It is only when he comes to the so-called “cold fish” — hard-faced transactional types who actually revel in the system — that his generous tone curdles into contempt.

Luyendijk writes with a light touch. His conclusions, however, are sombre. They will certainly not change the views of those who see bankers as moral lepers. But the book’s message is ultimately that the problem is systemic not personal. If we want a stronger system, we must change the incentives rather than wish for nicer folk.

Swimming with Sharks: My Journey into the World of the Bankers, by Joris Luyendijk, Guardian Faber, RRP£14.99, 288 pages

Jonathan Ford is the FT’s chief leader writer

Photograph: Julian Simmonds
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Mr. Perfect » Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:21 pm

Heracleum Persicum wrote:

American presidents have no power over economy

.

Anti-Bushers will have a real argument with you.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby kmich » Sun Oct 11, 2015 11:28 pm

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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:48 pm



An interesting thesis, indeed.

Thank you for the link and info.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Postby Typhoon » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:40 pm

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