Japan v China

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Enki
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Japan v China

Post by Enki »

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-2 ... ts-there-w

Japan Warns It May Fire On Chinese Aircraft Over Disputed Islands; China Retorts: "There Will Be No Second Shot"
A week ago we reported that following what China said was a response to counter "Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft" over the East China Sea, the world's most populous country (and one which has the largest, 2.25 million strong, standing army) scrambled several jets and put its military on high alert. Now, it is the turn of Japan, and its brand new militant and nationalistic government, to "retaliate" and escalate tensions by one more notch, in the process crashing any hope that Chinese imports of Japanese goods may resume, and obviating the ongoing temporary plunge in the yen (which while doing nothing to boost exports to this 20% trading partner, has made imports so expensive, inflation in the past two months has already soared well above the 2% target for various key goods as previously reported).

Moments ago, Japan says it may fire warning shots and take other measures to keep foreign aircraft from violating its airspace in the latest verbal blast between Tokyo and Beijing that raises concerns that a dispute over hotly contested islands could spin out of control.

AP reports:

Japanese officials made the comments after Chinese fighters tailed its warplanes near the islands recently. The incident is believed to be the first scrambling of Chinese fighters since the tensions began to rise last spring.

According to Chinese media, a pair of J-10 fighters was scrambled after Japanese F-15s began tailing a Chinese surveillance plane near the disputed islands in the East China Sea. China has complained the surveillance flight did not violate Japanese airspace and the F-15s were harassing it.

It was the first time the Chinese media has reported fighters being mobilized to respond to Japanese air force activity in the area and comes amid what Japan says is a rapid intensification of Chinese air force activity around the islands, where Japanese and Chinese coast guard ships have squared off for months.

Though there have been no outright clashes, the increased sea and air operations have fueled worries that the situation could spin out of control.

"Every country has procedures for how to deal with a violation of its territory that continues after multiple cautionary measures," Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said on Jan. 16 when asked if tracer shots would be fired against intruding aircraft that refuse to change course. "We have response measures ready that are consistent with global standards."

Onodera said the use of warning shots has long been provided for under Japan's defense policies and is widely accepted under international rules of engagement. Japan's air force has not actually resorted to them since 1987--against a Soviet aircraft--and none were fired last week.

But Chinese and Japanese media have suggested Tokyo is publicly floating the possibility to test China's reaction.
Perhaps it may surprise Japan, but "China's reaction" will hardly be one of a dog retreating with its tail between its legs. In fact, it will likely be quite the opposite.

And the fact that the US has once again stepped in, and is once again on the side of the party that started this whole escalation fiasco (that would be Japan for those who have forgotten), will not help:

The escalation of tensions has worried the United States, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton saying on Jan. 18 that while the U.S. doesn't take a position on who has sovereignty over the islands, it opposes "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration."

That brought a sharp retort from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Jan. 20. The comments "ignore the facts" that the islands are China's inherent territory, spokesman Qin Gang said in a statement that urged the U.S. to adopt "a responsible attitude."

In Beijing last week, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said China is on "high alert" and suggested Japan is escalating the tensions over the islands, called the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan. Taiwan also claims the small isles, which are uninhabited but may be surrounded by valuable underwater natural resources.

"Chinese planes and ships are exercising normal jurisdiction in the waters and airspace surrounding the Diaoyu Islands," spokesman Hong Lei said. "We are opposed to the operations of Japan's planes and ships, which violate our rights around Diaoyu. We are on high alert against this escalation."

As is often the case, Chinese media quoted military academics with a much more fiery response.

"Japan's desire to fire tracer warning shots as a way of frightening the Chinese is nothing but a joke that shows the stupidity, cruelty and failure to understand their own limitations," Maj. Gen. Peng Guangqian of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences was quoted as saying by the China News Service and other state media.

"Firing tracer bullets is a type of provocation; it's firing the first shot," he said. "Were Japan to dare to fire tracers, which is to say fire the first shot, then China wouldn't stint on responding and not allow them to fire the second shot."
Sounds like a catalyst to double down and buy every ES contract in sight: just think of the GDP boost and appropriate fiscal multiplier once Japan is levelled.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Doc »

AS far as I can tell the CCP leadership has decided that conflict will be its relief valve for its domestic problems.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.


A silly mistake , for Japan


.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Typhoon »

I'd take anything published on the ZeroHedge site with a very large crystal of salt.

Anyone who has followed ZH's advice has made a small fortune . . . if they started from a large one.

Here's the official Chinese position:

ChinaDaily | Beijing, Tokyo continue talking

Standard histrionic CCP turgid prose with all the subtlety of an elephant in heat. However, nothing like what ZH claims.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Endovelico »

Typhoon wrote:I'd take anything published on the ZeroHedge site with a very large crystal of salt.

Anyone who has followed ZH's advice has made a small fortune . . . if they started from a large one.

Here's the official Chinese position:

ChinaDaily | Beijing, Tokyo continue talking

Standard histrionic CCP turgid prose with all the subtlety of an elephant in heat. However, nothing like what ZH claims.
Sooner or later someone is going to start shooting at someone else over those islands. One wonders whether Japan has been able to keep its past warring skills...
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Endovelico wrote:.

Sooner or later someone is going to start shooting at someone else over those islands.

.


that's America's plan .. US handed over Chinese Islands to Japanese control, though they perfectly knew those Islands were Chinese last 10,000 yrs
America modding the water to fish

all preparation and part of the big war coming



.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Typhoon »

Endovelico wrote:
Typhoon wrote:I'd take anything published on the ZeroHedge site with a very large crystal of salt.

Anyone who has followed ZH's advice has made a small fortune . . . if they started from a large one.

Here's the official Chinese position:

ChinaDaily | Beijing, Tokyo continue talking

Standard histrionic CCP turgid prose with all the subtlety of an elephant in heat. However, nothing like what ZH claims.
Sooner or later someone is going to start shooting at someone else over those islands. One wonders whether Japan has been able to keep its past warring skills...
I was hoping to live out my days without experiencing WWIII. The most probably outcome should any real shooting start.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Typhoon »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Endovelico wrote:.

Sooner or later someone is going to start shooting at someone else over those islands.

.
that's America's plan .. US handed over Chinese Islands to Japanese control, though they perfectly knew those Islands were Chinese last 10,000 yrs
The real history is a bit more complex than your usual histrionic conspiracy theories.
Heracleum Persicum wrote:
America modding the water to fish

all preparation and part of the big war coming

.
It's not 1939 anymore. The fallout from a big global war would be catastrophic.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Alexis »

Typhoon wrote:I was hoping to live out my days without experiencing WWIII. The most probably outcome should any real shooting start.
I don't believe in any shooting because of this dispute.

At the beginning of 20th century, major European countries were regularly engaged in verbal escalations about this or that international issue: a series of "crises" which actually did not result in any all-out war, for the simple reason that no major power wanted it. Everybody backed off from actually starting a fight, because everybody recognized that war could not be in their advantage.

WWI started because some powers -Austria-Hungary and Germany- had determined that it would be in their interest to start a war that they had come to think of as anyway inevitable in the long term, that they hoped could resolve internal issues -nobility class in Germany, German-speaker preeminency in Austria-Hungary- and provide solid economic benefits -Germany's September 1914 war aims. So they used the next such "crisis" to start that war.

Major wars do not happen by chance.

The question whether a China-Japan war will start is the question: does the leadership in one of these countries believe that war is anyway inevitable / that it would generate large economic benefits / or that it would help resolve internal issues?
- Answer to this questions regarding Japanese leadership is obvious.
- It is almost as obvious regarding Chinese leadership: there may exist a real "internal policy" interest having a nationalistic dispute with Japan, but there is no interest in a war because it would be too destructive for the economy (US backlash, protectionist or otherwise) as well as for strategic position (Japanese nuclear deterrent one year after fighting began)
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Alexis »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:that's America's plan .. US handed over Chinese Islands to Japanese control, though they perfectly knew those Islands were Chinese last 10,000 yrs
America modding the water to fish
World is simple when seen through your eyes, oh happy man :-) !

if Israel, indeed if any Jew is anywhere in the picture :arrow: It's because of the Jews
else if the US is anywhere in the picture :arrow: It's because of Americans
else if any European -but not Russian- is anywhere in the picture :arrow: It's because of Europeans
else you are not interested in the issue

Some would even say it's a bit too simple :-D !
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Re: Japan v China

Post by noddy »

id certainly hope it was just posturing for local consumption and at this stage still think it is just that - alexis's summary seems about right and its unlikely to be in anyones current interest to have it escalate.

if not, ill be hiding somewhere in remote australia.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Ibrahim »

Nothing is going to happen.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Endovelico »

Ibrahim wrote:Nothing is going to happen.
Not deliberately, but accidents do occur...
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Post by monster_gardener »

Endovelico wrote:
Ibrahim wrote:Nothing is going to happen.
Not deliberately, but accidents do occur...
Thank You VERY Much for your Post, Endo.

Quite Right.

Seconded.

To Paraphrase Robert Burns........

The Best Laid Plans of Dragons and Men oft go awry
For the love of G_d, consider you & I may be mistaken.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Alexis »

Endovelico wrote:
Ibrahim wrote:Nothing is going to happen.
Not deliberately, but accidents do occur...
Yes, but even in case of accident, like a trigger-happy Japanese fighter pilot downing a Chinese surveillance aircraft, or his Chinese counterpart downing a Japanese fighter, both powers would back off from extending that into real war and would instead cool things down privately -while obviously making all kinds of threatening noises and posturing in public.

Reason is that none of them has any sufficient reason to want a war.

In such a case, expect A LOT of flame wars on the Internet between Chinese and Japanese posters, though...

Plus a very worried US Secretary of State displaying concern with a serious concentrated tone on TV
(that one, for comic relief :-D !)
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Ibrahim »

Endovelico wrote:
Ibrahim wrote:Nothing is going to happen.
Not deliberately, but accidents do occur...
I doubt it would extend to a war.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Typhoon wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Endovelico wrote:.

Sooner or later someone is going to start shooting at someone else over those islands.

.
that's America's plan .. US handed over Chinese Islands to Japanese control, though they perfectly knew those Islands were Chinese last 10,000 yrs
The real history is a bit more complex than your usual histrionic conspiracy theories.
Heracleum Persicum wrote:
America modding the water to fish

all preparation and part of the big war coming

.
It's not 1939 anymore. The fallout from a big global war would be catastrophic.

.


The historical roots of the dispute between China and Japan over control of the Diaoyu Islands

Japan has ongoing border disputes not only with China but also with Russia and Korea. While these were marginal issues during the peak of its postwar economic expansion, since the 1990s gradual shifts in the balance of power in the region have highlighted Japan’s vulnerabilities in acute ways. As the discrepancy between the territorial status quo and the political and economic balance of power becomes more glaring in East Asia, the potential for conflict will only increase.

Better settle with China .. share the natural resources .. Japan can not withstand/confront China .. nobody can

Alexis wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:that's America's plan .. US handed over Chinese Islands to Japanese control, though they perfectly knew those Islands were Chinese last 10,000 yrs
America modding the water to fish
World is simple when seen through your eyes, oh happy man :-) !

if Israel, indeed if any Jew is anywhere in the picture :arrow: It's because of the Jews
else if the US is anywhere in the picture :arrow: It's because of Americans
else if any European -but not Russian- is anywhere in the picture :arrow: It's because of Europeans
else you are not interested in the issue

Some would even say it's a bit too simple :-D !

Look, Alexis .. Ahmadinejat said, everywhere where it's killing and stealing the natural resources, America, West, Zionist have a finger in that conflict .. don't see any reason to doubt him :lol:



.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by noddy »

an escalation to war would not occur just in the context of japan/china accident but be part of a larger scenario that includes all the players.

something like the chinese deciding they dont need to play the american system anymore and then playing games with their leverage on the us dollar and control of the international market systems.

or the above looking like its happening and the americans defending themselves by attacking first.

unlikely at this stage but is more inline with the big picture and a possibility if the us and/or china end up with increasing internal problems due to economies gone bad.
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Post by monster_gardener »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Endovelico wrote:.

Sooner or later someone is going to start shooting at someone else over those islands.

.
that's America's plan .. US handed over Chinese Islands to Japanese control, though they perfectly knew those Islands were Chinese last 10,000 yrs
The real history is a bit more complex than your usual histrionic conspiracy theories.
Heracleum Persicum wrote:
America modding the water to fish

all preparation and part of the big war coming

.
It's not 1939 anymore. The fallout from a big global war would be catastrophic.

.


The historical roots of the dispute between China and Japan over control of the Diaoyu Islands

Japan has ongoing border disputes not only with China but also with Russia and Korea. While these were marginal issues during the peak of its postwar economic expansion, since the 1990s gradual shifts in the balance of power in the region have highlighted Japan’s vulnerabilities in acute ways. As the discrepancy between the territorial status quo and the political and economic balance of power becomes more glaring in East Asia, the potential for conflict will only increase.

Better settle with China .. share the natural resources .. Japan can not withstand/confront China .. nobody can

Alexis wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:that's America's plan .. US handed over Chinese Islands to Japanese control, though they perfectly knew those Islands were Chinese last 10,000 yrs
America modding the water to fish
World is simple when seen through your eyes, oh happy man :-) !

if Israel, indeed if any Jew is anywhere in the picture :arrow: It's because of the Jews
else if the US is anywhere in the picture :arrow: It's because of Americans
else if any European -but not Russian- is anywhere in the picture :arrow: It's because of Europeans
else you are not interested in the issue

Some would even say it's a bit too simple :-D !

Look, Alexis .. Ahmadinejat said, everywhere where it's killing and stealing the natural resources, America, West, Zionist have a finger in that conflict .. don't see any reason to doubt him :lol:



.

Thank you Very Much for your post, Azari.........

Am posting reply in the off topic thread at:

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1498&p=45482#p45482
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Azrael »

Doc wrote:AS far as I can tell the CCP leadership has decided that conflict will be its relief valve for its domestic problems.
Dangerous strategy . . .
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Azrael »

Ibrahim wrote:
Endovelico wrote:
Ibrahim wrote:Nothing is going to happen.
Not deliberately, but accidents do occur...
I doubt it would extend to a war.
They're playing a game of chicken.

The guy who wins is the one who throws his steering wheel out of the window first, unless they both do.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by noddy »

never would i have guessed 2 big east asian powers would be ridiculing eachother via popculture references to a western childrens book.

you are voldemort, no you are, nyna nyna , you have a horcrux, you have witches!

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/china ... ort-2014-1
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Typhoon »

noddy wrote:never would i have guessed 2 big east asian powers would be ridiculing each other via popculture references to a western childrens book.

you are voldemort, no you are, nyna nyna , you have a horcrux, you have witches!

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/china ... ort-2014-1
:lol: Indeed.

If nothing else, it is a refreshing change from the standard "lackey imperialist running dog" of the past.

I would argue that Mao Tse Tung made Voldemort look like an inept amateur . . .

This comes to mind . . .

A8yjNbcKkNY

Whoever uses "your mother was a hamster, and your father smelled of elderberries" first wins the agitprop war.
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Endovelico »

For the little I know of the Chinese mind, China has not given up the idea of having Japan paying for what it did in China in the 30's. No matter how long it takes. And the balance of power is definitely in favour of China, so it's only a matter of deciding how much China can humiliate Japan without triggering some kind of US response. I guess shooting down a couple of Japanese planes would still be safe enough. In the future things could become increasingly nasty for Japan, as China becomes capable of countering American power in the western Pacific. Which means that Japan will soon have nuclear weapons which it will never be able to use, as Japan is a lot more vulnerable, territory-wise, than China. A wise government in Japan would start thinking about giving up the idea of keeping those small islands. A small humiliation is better than big destruction...
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Re: Japan v China

Post by Alexis »

noddy wrote:never would i have guessed 2 big east asian powers would be ridiculing eachother via popculture references to a western childrens book.

you are voldemort, no you are, nyna nyna , you have a horcrux, you have witches!

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/china ... ort-2014-1
Childish behaviour and complete lack of understanding, of course.

Here is the reality about Voldemort that this tit-for-tat exchange is obscuring:

Image

:D ;)
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