North Korea

noddy
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Re: North Korea

Post by noddy »

^ seems about right to me.

as for north korea, i suspect china is going to use them as the first projection of their new found global power.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Parodite »

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Nonc Hilaire
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Re: North Korea

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

I think the reason that the US allows NK to exist is simply to scare the Japanese.
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Doc
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Re: North Korea

Post by Doc »

http://bgr.com/2017/06/18/north-korea-w ... ion-links/

North Korea behind WannaCry ransomware attack, British intelligence claims
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: North Korea

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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Sanction ! ! ! .. :lol:
North Korea economy grows at fastest pace in 17 years


North Korean GDP grew 3.9% in 2016,
according to the central bank of South Korea
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Re: North Korea

Post by NapLajoieonSteroids »

North Korea Tests Another ICBM, Capable of Hitting LA.
Jeffrey Lewis of the California-based Middlebury Institute of International Studies said the launch showed Los Angeles was within range of a North Korean missile, with Chicago, New York and Washington, just out of reach.

"They may not have demonstrated the full range. The computer models suggest it can hit all of those targets," he said.

The U.S.-based Union of Concerned Scientists said its calculations showed the missile could have been capable of going as far into the United States as Denver and Chicago.

Michael Elleman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said the window for a diplomatic solution with North Korea "is closing rapidly."

"The key here is that North Korea has a second successful test in less than one month," he said. "If this trend holds, they could establish an acceptably reliable ICBM before year's end."

Los Angeles would be protected by the U.S. missile defense network, which includes four ground-based interceptors at Vandenberg Air Force base, 150 miles north of the city, and a second battery of 32 missiles in Alaska.

During a test on May 31 the missile defense system shot down an incoming ICBM missile aimed at the U.S. mainland and a Pentagon spokesman said the military had "confidence in our ability to defend against the limited threat."

Other authorities say the United States may not be able to seal itself off entirely from a North Korean ICBM attack.
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Alexis
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Fire at me. Right now

Post by Alexis »

Not entirely realistic... But well, it's funny :lol:

Image
Simple Minded

Re: Fire at me. Right now

Post by Simple Minded »

Alexis wrote:Not entirely realistic... But well, it's funny :lol:

Image
:lol: Much appreciated.
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Parodite
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Re: North Korea

Post by Parodite »

Anyone daring a bet how to best deal with North Korea?

Diplomacy: fail
War: very costly economically and huge death toll in South Korea

Chance that NK blinks under maximum threat of war seems nill to me.

Only pressure left aside the threat of war seems to me economic pressure. NK, a centrally planned economy, is kept alive primarily by China but many countries do nice business as well.
How does North Korea make money?
[...]
North Korea's industries export military products, machine building, electr\\ical power, chemicals, mining, metallurgy, textiles, food processing and tourism, besides this it also earn from illegal trade. There are also some reports that it sold arms to terrorist organizations also.

China accounted for an estimated 67.2% of North Korea's exports and 61.6% of imports in 2011. South Korea accounted for 19.4% of exports and 20% of imports, while India received an estimated 3.6% of exports and the European Union provided about 4% of imports in 2011.
International business has a solid track record of not minding who to trade with. With Jesus or Satan himself. The art of the deal, any deal. It is rather strange to expect changes in NK while keeping them afloat economically with amoral business as usual. China certainly doesn't seem willing to lock all doors with NK.

If threat of war is considered usefull it would better be applied to China. NK is their ugly baby and if they want to keep it, let it be costly.
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Alexis
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Dealing with Mr Kim

Post by Alexis »

Parodite wrote:Anyone daring a bet how to best deal with North Korea?
When a Communist dictator and a mass murderer, adored like a living god by his countrymen, who suffered not so long ago a huge famine because of his economic antics, put into service nuclear weapons that can reach American territory, the only correct answer is...

... to meet him and normalize relations.

At least that's what Richard Nixon did with China's Mao in 1972.

Note that nuclear war between USA and China has been avoided until now. I strongly suspect it's possible to continue avoiding it.

Also, no matter how you measure Kim Jong Un, by size of country, by number of murders, by human cost of famine his predecessor triggered... he is a much much smaller dictator than Mao was.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: North Korea

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.

.

The United States walked away from the Agreed Framework with North Korea in 2003.

Three years later, North Korea exploded its first nuclear weapon.

This summer, North Korea started testing long-range missiles that can carry those nuclear weapons to cities in the United States like New York and Los Angeles.

If the United States walks away from the JCPOA, Iran could do the same thing — only faster.

.

:lol: :lol: .. a whole lot faster


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Re: North Korea

Post by Typhoon »

FT | Little Fatty dares to make China lose face
North Korea’s leader knows he will have enraged Xi by overshadowing the BRICs summit
For the second time in four months Kim Jong Un has dared to humiliate Chinese president Xi Jinping, the one foreign leader with the power to strangle North Korea’s economy with potentially fatal effects for the Pyongyang regime.

Mr Kim not only conducted a nuclear test on Sunday knowing that it would enrage Beijing; he did so as his Chinese counterpart was preparing to receive the heads of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa in the coastal city of Xiamen.
For Mr Xi, the headaches and embarrassments he must regularly endure because of Mr Kim are particularly galling given his personal antipathy for the young ruler.
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Alexis
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The 6th H-bomb country

Post by Alexis »

Yield estimates for latest NK nuclear test, in accordance with measure of seismic magnitude and equation chosen for modelization (two possibilities):

Image

Magnitude remains to be definitely confirmed, but measures by USA, China and Japan all in 6.1-6.3 range give a yield of several hundreds kilotons for the explosion.

Which for the lower values may be compatible with boosted fission, that is a fission bomb improved with a small fusion component. However a two-stage weapon that is a full H-bomb, as NK claims, is a valid explanation. It's also the only practical one for the larger yield values.

Quite probably, NK is no longer the 9th nuclear country. It's the 6th H-bomb country.

(India and Pakistan both claim to have tested fusion weapons in 1998, but the seismic picture is not compatible with those claims)
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Alexis
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Quick and ambitious NK, proliferation consequences?

Post by Alexis »

That NK would resume nuclear testing was not a surprise. Satellite pictures repeatedly gave indications in that direction in recent months, and it is also logical given their stance of defiance towards pressure to denuclearize.

Also, that they were attempting to get larger explosions than classical Hiroshima-types was not a secret.

The news are that they are advancing fast, probably directly to full thermonuclear device it would seem.

Also, that their ambitions are large: they are aiming to a nuclear force more akin to those of China or France - thermonuclear, intercontinental - than to those of Pakistan or even India and Israel, all of whom never demonstrated H-bombs.

So these are important news, and speed of increase of their technical proficiency is remarkable.

In the short term, I am not expecting any really serious dangers. NK propaganda remains what it always have been, Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump make strident proclamations, but both of them are speaking of what they would do if they were attacked, and nobody has any interest in attacking the first.

In the longer term, the question is stability of non-proliferation regime. Five countries tested H-bombs in a sixteen years timespan between 1952 and 1968, then we had a very long lull... then a sixth country yesterday. Will number of nuclear-armed countries remain what it is now, or will 10th, 11th etc country be added so that 20 or 30 countries are nuclear-armed ten or twenty years from now?

In that case, risks of miscalculation, or disorganization leading to weapon slippage, would be multiplied, which wouldn't be good.

The middle-term question I would say is: will South Korean and/or Japan build nukes? Technically, it would be quite easy for them, they already have almost all that they would need.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Typhoon »

NK is an example of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

During the Korean War, when it appeared that NK forces would have to retreat over the Yalu River, the border with China, with UN Western forces on their border, Mao panicked and sent Chinese reinforcements This saved NK and established it as a buffer country.

However, NK has now become a major unpredictable liability for China and risks involving it in a total war lead by the US should NK actually attack the US or its allies.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Mr. Perfect »

There is something about the jiggly bouncing of some military marching that strikes me as a bit LGBTXYZ, a little lacking in testosterone. Not sure why signalling cross dressing would be viewed as a way to intimidate the enemy.

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Re: North Korea

Post by Alexis »

Mr. Perfect wrote:There is something about the jiggly bouncing of some military marching that strikes me as a bit LGBTXYZ, a little lacking in testosterone. Not sure why signalling cross dressing would be viewed as a way to intimidate the enemy.
NK female soldiers miniskirts are entirely peripheral to their armament.

The same applies incidentally to Chinese armed forces.

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Re: North Korea

Post by Mr. Perfect »

They sort of look like flight attendants over regular army IMO but if they wanted to get their views up they should incorporate some NK style bouncing and jiggling.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.


Russia, South Korea, Japan
to discuss North Korea in Vladivostok




America is 10,000 miles away from North Korea ..

Not so Russia, South Korea and Japan .. they either have common borders with NK or just next door

And

NK grievances is with Japan, America has nothing to do with all this.

In that sense, it is logical that Russia, South Korea and Japan try to come to terms with NK, probably that is what NK wants too.

US should welcome that.

If Russia, South Korea and Japan solve the NK issue, it would mean US global role diminishing.

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Simple Minded

Re: North Korea

Post by Simple Minded »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

If Russia, South Korea and Japan solve the NK issue, it would mean US global role diminishing.

.
amen! The sooner the better.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Simple Minded wrote:.
Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

If Russia, South Korea and Japan solve the NK issue, it would mean US global role diminishing.

.
amen! The sooner the better.

.


Agree, SM, agree


Our beloved America "shackled", burdened, with this "world leadership" role .. America must act in British colonial interest (Malvinas), must act in French colonial interest (Vietnam), etc etc .. those interests not always in American national interest.

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Alexis
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What to do before grabbing the popcorn

Post by Alexis »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:America is 10,000 miles away from North Korea ..
No, the closest US state to North Korea is Alaska. Distance from Pyongyang to Anchorage is 6,000 km in international units, that is 3,700 miles for those who prefer British Empire units.

NK grievances is with Japan, America has nothing to do with all this.
Those are breaking news. All their propaganda has been claiming differently for the past two generations, that's also the rationale for their nuclear deterrence as the regime presents it to the population.

Simple Minded wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:If Russia, South Korea and Japan solve the NK issue, it would mean US global role diminishing.
amen! The sooner the better.
Option to ignore NK nuclear armament does look attractive from a US point of view. America has nuclear deterrence aplenty, and the Pyongyang government has behaved rationally, if inhumanely, in the past.

That being said, China may eventually find the NK joke has grown tired and not funny.

I mean, if Seoul and/or Tokyo become uneasy enough about America no longer being able to guarantee their nuclear defense against the potential or risk of Pyongyang nuclear blackmail - and decide to build national nuclear forces.
- South Koreans favor such a force by 58% to 34%. And that was beginning 2016, when the US nuclear guarantee looked as solid as ever, since the US were out of reach for NK
- SK scientists have estimated the time from political decision to first nuclear test to about 18 months (link in Korean, but automated translation works fine)

When Seoul and/or Tokyo have even a mere regional deterrent able to strike Pyongyang, they also will have a deterrent able to strike Beijing, because distances are not very dissimilar.

The best US policy re. this situation IMO would not be to erupt in empty threats, blusters - the grrr-bowwow-woof version of patriotism :roll: - and demands of harsh economic sanctions that China is not inclined to deliver - although they are ready to pretend, given that an open rebuke à la Vladimir Putin would be humiliating for Washington, and Chinese government is not stupid enough to uselessly humiliate American one.

It would be to:
1. State publicly that when NK completes development of its Hwasong-14 missile, puting parts of US territory within the shooting zone, the US won't be able to continue guaranteeing nuclear deterrence for SK, although they will remain an ally and will continue upholding all other parts of their defense pact
2. State that consequently and in the spirit of alliance, once NK has completed Hwasong-14's development, the US will support all adaptations of defense policy that SK may deem advisable. In particular, they will stand in the way of any attempt by the UN to sanction Seoul if it was to decide exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and they will examine with a positive eye potential requests by SK for help in nuclear weapon secure handling or security of nuclear arsenals generally ("just saying, y'know... Why, no, it's not incitement")

Then, US government could grab the popcorn, sit down, relax and watch:
- South Koreans thinking and debating, loudly and openly
- Chinese government looking the SK debate - sweat on their front
- Japanese debating quietly, or possibly not at all. Just looking at the situation with a serene, unassuming, and mysterious :) face
- Chinese government looking the Japanese busy looking mysterious - are their hands moving? :| - double sweat on the front, beginning to drip
- Quite possibly, Chinese government banging Kim the Third's head against the wall :mrgreen: explaining that completion of Hwasong-14 development is not called for

Anyway, it would be a good show.
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Re: North Korea

Post by noddy »

previous to this round of little fatties temper tantrums their was increasing amount of news that his internal position was growing weak and that the regime was looking to displace him.

this adds a layer of potential escalation to the usual bluster and nonsense.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.

Folks, those idi*t "neocons", McCain, Graham, Lieberman, Bolton and many others, thought they won when attacking Qaddafi, Saddam and now Assad

Now, you have to deal with NK "H-Bomb" and the missiles to deliver it

Iran could do same within months, if not weeks .. everything ready


Putin :
North Korea thinks that quitting its nuclear program would be an ' invitation to the cemetery '



Look, guys, there is a reason Persian Empire lasted 1000 years Uninterrupted .. "Rule by Justice" was Persian school .. you guys, silly, thought rule by sword way to go.

Well , now , you make a wrong move and you could be @ receiving end of that SH*T.

Ask the Ayatollahs how it's done, you losing on all fronts


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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: What to do before grabbing the popcorn

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Alexis wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:America is 10,000 miles away from North Korea ..
No, the closest US state to North Korea is Alaska. Distance from Pyongyang to Anchorage is 6,000 km in international units, that is 3,700 miles for those who prefer British Empire units.

NK grievances is with Japan, America has nothing to do with all this.
Those are breaking news. All their propaganda has been claiming differently for the past two generations, that's also the rationale for their nuclear deterrence as the regime presents it to the population.

Simple Minded wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:If Russia, South Korea and Japan solve the NK issue, it would mean US global role diminishing.
amen! The sooner the better.
Option to ignore NK nuclear armament does look attractive from a US point of view. America has nuclear deterrence aplenty, and the Pyongyang government has behaved rationally, if inhumanely, in the past.

That being said, China may eventually find the NK joke has grown tired and not funny.

I mean, if Seoul and/or Tokyo become uneasy enough about America no longer being able to guarantee their nuclear defense against the potential or risk of Pyongyang nuclear blackmail - and decide to build national nuclear forces.
- South Koreans favor such a force by 58% to 34%. And that was beginning 2016, when the US nuclear guarantee looked as solid as ever, since the US were out of reach for NK
- SK scientists have estimated the time from political decision to first nuclear test to about 18 months (link in Korean, but automated translation works fine)

When Seoul and/or Tokyo have even a mere regional deterrent able to strike Pyongyang, they also will have a deterrent able to strike Beijing, because distances are not very dissimilar.

The best US policy re. this situation IMO would not be to erupt in empty threats, blusters - the grrr-bowwow-woof version of patriotism :roll: - and demands of harsh economic sanctions that China is not inclined to deliver - although they are ready to pretend, given that an open rebuke à la Vladimir Putin would be humiliating for Washington, and Chinese government is not stupid enough to uselessly humiliate American one.

It would be to:
1. State publicly that when NK completes development of its Hwasong-14 missile, puting parts of US territory within the shooting zone, the US won't be able to continue guaranteeing nuclear deterrence for SK, although they will remain an ally and will continue upholding all other parts of their defense pact
2. State that consequently and in the spirit of alliance, once NK has completed Hwasong-14's development, the US will support all adaptations of defense policy that SK may deem advisable. In particular, they will stand in the way of any attempt by the UN to sanction Seoul if it was to decide exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and they will examine with a positive eye potential requests by SK for help in nuclear weapon secure handling or security of nuclear arsenals generally ("just saying, y'know... Why, no, it's not incitement")

Then, US government could grab the popcorn, sit down, relax and watch:
- South Koreans thinking and debating, loudly and openly
- Chinese government looking the SK debate - sweat on their front
- Japanese debating quietly, or possibly not at all. Just looking at the situation with a serene, unassuming, and mysterious :) face
- Chinese government looking the Japanese busy looking mysterious - are their hands moving? :| - double sweat on the front, beginning to drip
- Quite possibly, Chinese government banging Kim the Third's head against the wall :mrgreen: explaining that completion of Hwasong-14 development is not called for

Anyway, it would be a good show.


.


:lol: :lol: :lol: .. really funny


Well, Alexis , can you please enlighten this forum what the "crazy" Kim Jong-un wants ? ? ?

Why is he risking a nuclear wipeout ? ? why has NK invested so much capital in developing H-Bomb and Nuke and missiles and and and ? ?

Why ?

What does NK want ? ?

Have you every read an interview with Kim Jong-un explaining what NK grievances are ?

Why NK is sending all those missile only over Japan, or threatening US .. why NK not sending missiles over China or Russia or Philippine or or, or treathening them ?

Just "parroting" western propaganda is Old-school .. nobody fooled anymore by that rubbish

Now, we get our info from "multiple sources", world multi polar, we check any news with different source

Russia's Putin told Korea's Moon that cutting off oil supplies to North Korea would violate humanitarian norms, suggesting he will block the planned U.S. oil embargo
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