2018 midterm elections

[Mr. Perfect]

This is the biggie. I maintain healthy GOP victories. Here is why.

GOP advantage
-Incumbency. Incumbents almost always win elections, usually you have to have something dramatic happening for them to lose. We have a healthy house majority that is large enough to weather any insurgency
-Incredible economy. Trump's first year is better than any year under obama and Trump had delivered more for his base than any politician I am aware of. 2018 should be even better.
-Senate calendar huge favor for the GOP, almost 10 Democrats are running for re-election in Trump/Red states. Gop should pick up 7-10 seats based on this alone.
-Enormous fund raising advantage for the GOP, in the last year GOP has raised twice as much money. Not only is it a straight up financial advantage, in the US whoever raises the most money almost always wins because it is indicative of voter sentiment.

Democrat advantage.
-Historically one party rule is hard to maintain. Triangulating swing voters like to play both sides against each other for fun, it seems to be in their nature.
-Unrelenting vitriolic one sided attack from the MSM on Trump/GOP. Even though we managed to win last time against that, it's an advantage beyond measure and I would kill for it personally. If not for our partisan left wing media there would be no Democrat party or liberal movement in America. It cannot ever be overstated
-Big lead in the generic ballot poll. Historically this is the biggest predictor in congressional elections and the advantage is Democrat. However polling has been way off for 3 cycles now, so I am VERY dubious about this result, and the fact that we are 11 months out.

So as of today my prediction is the GOP loses some seats in the house but maintains a good workeable majority. A very normal election outcome as you usually lose a few after a wave election. I predict a healthy 7-10 pickup in the Senate as we mover toward a permanent GOP 60 seat filibuster proof supermajority.

The big battle in this election is between the generic ballot poll and the GOP fundraising advantage. Which one is the better indicator.

[Doc]

There won't be a Democratic party after 2018. It will be replaced by a "Progressive" party.

[Mr. Perfect]

There won't be a Democratic party after 2018. It will be replaced by a "Progressive" party.

Hard to say. It's not covered in the MSM but it's a bloodbath in that party right now. Bernie bros vs corporate Democrats. Corporates control the party right now but it's anyone's guess what will happen if they suffer another loss. But it will be their last.

[Mr. Perfect]

I have 2 fears.

1, the Congressional GOP doesn't seem to want to win. They seem to be signalling they expect to lose and they are going to surrender 11 months early and they are fine with it. This collection of GOP leaders defies me at levels I never saw coming.

2, I predicted the MSM would be dead by now, and they are not. This failure of prediction is so rare I am really disturbed by it. My prediction record is almost 100%. So upon analysis the US left is far more insane than I imagined, and I'm angry with myself about that. I should have known how depraved they are. I just didn't expect them to go marching in genital costumes, call for the removal or assassination of Trump and hysterically scream about a made up foreign conspiracy for a year. That was enough material to keep them going for a while.

So we will see.

[Simple Minded]

never tooooooo early to start prognosticating.... or masturbating.....


http://victorhanson.com/wordpress/trump ... more-10909

[Miss_Faucie_Fishtits]

Masticating......... ruminating.......'>.........

Numerating....... illuminating.....XD..........

[Mr. Perfect]

Already got a thread...

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=3955

[Simple Minded]

Masticating......... ruminating.......'>.........

Numerating....... illuminating.....XD..........

and hopefully, some fumigating....

Accompanying country song melody would be nice......

[Mr. Perfect]

Normally I put enormous weight into the generic ballot. Historically it has been the best predictor of congressional turnover. However after 2016 polling is suspect. I stand by my stance that a booming economy with the GOP raising money hand over fist is perhaps the better indicator.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government ... dead-heat/

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows Democrats with only a “negligible edge” over Republicans for November’s Congressional elections.

The poll, conducted over three days almost entirely before President Donald Trump’s well-received State of the Union Address, shows 47 percent of respondents saying they would vote for a generic congressional Democrat compared to 45 percent for a generic Republican, well within the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error. This figure is a massive shift from earlier polls showing double digit Democratic leads and fueling pundits’ talk of a “blue wave” that could sweep Republicans from power.

[Mr. Perfect]

Hopefully the GOP can simply bury these guys with money. These are the worst fundraising numbers I've ever seen.

https://freedomoutpost.com/dnc-desperat ... info-sotu/

Filed during the State of the Union in the hopes of getting buried, was the fundraising numbers for the Democratic National Committee. Ken Vogel of The New York Times picked it up where he noted the Democratic National Committee had raised a little over $5 million, finishing the year with a whopping $6 million in debt.

On the other hand, proving democrats know next to nothing about basic economics, the Republican National Committee has no debt and raised over twice as much as their Democratic counterparts. For 2017, the RNC raised $132.5 million to the DNC’s $65.9 million. Regarding cash on hand, the RNC has close to $40 million ($38.8 million to be exact), while the DNC only has $6.3 million.

[Typhoon]

Reason | Surprise: Voters Aren't More Polarized than Ever, Only Pols and Media Are

Stanford political scientist Morris Fiorina says it's media and political elites who live in ideological bubbles, not regular Americans.

[Simple Minded]

Reason | Surprise: Voters Aren't More Polarized than Ever, Only Pols and Media Are

Stanford political scientist Morris Fiorina says it's media and political elites who live in ideological bubbles, not regular Americans.

Yep. This seems to agree with my day-to-day observations.

The brand D and brand R elites are so impressed with the differences between themselves and the deplorable, that they are amazed that some of us find it hard to tell the difference between them.

[Parodite]

The CIA Democrats

An extraordinary number of former intelligence and military operatives from the CIA, Pentagon, National Security Council and State Department are seeking nomination as Democratic candidates for Congress in the 2018 midterm elections. The potential influx of military-intelligence personnel into the legislature has no precedent in US political history.

If the Democrats capture a majority in the House of Representatives on November 6, as widely predicted, candidates drawn from the military-intelligence apparatus will comprise as many as half of the new Democratic members of Congress. They will hold the balance of power in the lower chamber of Congress.

[...]

[Mr. Perfect]

I have to admit to being pretty depressed. I have never seen a more hapless group of Republicans, and we have some to choose from in history. I can't find a Republican anywhere that isn't hiding under a desk, cowering and helpless before a fate they don't even feel like contesting.

The GOP should be smashing records for congressional seats but the yellowbellies are terrified of people like David Hogg and Stormy Daniels. It's bewildering to watch.

[Mr. Perfect]

Good points. And we are in the throes where the unelected government is overthrowing the elected government. We are watching self government itself evaporate in front of our eyes.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

They tried to surrender before the 2016 election like a bunch of dolts and capons.

They, and most especially those who have wormed their way into leadership positions, find the average voter as contemptible as the Democratic leadership does.

They also revealed that:

The only blocks in the Republican omnibus with any power is the military-industrial and the chamber of commerce.

They do not have the imagination or learning or clever (or cunning) to adapt and change and work through a situation. (A corollary, the ideas of the leadership of the party is near-inapplicable now.)

They would rather lose and reign over the ruins then win.

Most importantly, too much of the Republican house is reliant on illegal immigration to boost census numbers and provide them with extra seats and, thereby, cushy jobs.

They have let all social and political institutions go and can't wait to shed whatever remains.

They will never ever ever do anything about abortion- they will never touch it and they have a whole plate of other social issues they'll never put forward again. The rule of thumb is that the Democrats can be aggressive on social issues but the Republicans can't.

That's where we are.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Midterms are always bad for the party in charge- the House changing hands, while giving the Democrats plenty to crow about wouldn't be out of the norm.

What is out of the norm is how eager Republicans are in wanting to be depressed and roll over and do nothing. They're more eager to make this election a referendum on President Trump than the Democratic Party.

[Simple Minded]

Trump should have a coming out of the closet party in May...... and announce he is no longer a Republican.

He wouldn't have to claim to be a Dem, or an Independent or any thing else.

Fire works would be yuge!

[Mr. Perfect]

Trump proved an aggressive Republican can win on traditional GOP/USA issues.

This batch is just yellow and lily livered. Trump crystallized that the bottom line is about winning, and this crop of Republicans is terrified to try it, and blame Trump for it.

It's pathetic to watch.

[Mr. Perfect]

Midterms are always bad for the party in charge-

Not always. 2002

the House changing hands, while giving the Democrats plenty to crow about wouldn't be out of the norm.

Not the point. It's completely unnecessary. We have the chance to kill off the Democrat Party and liberalism itself and we're letting them up off the ropes, again.

What is out of the norm is how eager Republicans are in wanting to be depressed and roll over and do nothing.

Yeah.

[Doc]

Trump proved an aggressive Republican can win on traditional GOP/USA issues.

This batch is just yellow and lily livered. Trump crystallized that the bottom line is about winning, and this crop of Republicans is terrified to try it, and blame Trump for it.

It's pathetic to watch.

They have a great deal GIve token resistance get re-elected and plenty of insider trading tip which they are legally permited to act on Not for campaign contributions but personal wealth. This why so many member of congress have become millionaires on $175k a year salaries.

[Mr. Perfect]

And we were so close. Most obamunism was reversed, we solidified the court for another decade or two, all that was left was privatizing schools, balancing the budget, entitlement reforms and eventual dissolution of the Fed. All achievable in 2 Trump terms.

But they are terrified of their own shadows.

[Doc]

I would guess that the Cohen raid will keep a lot of people riled up through November. They are again mad as hell, and aren't going to take it anymore. And I did notice that Mueller's office is already leaking documents seized in that highly illegal raid. Which makes it 100% certain Mueller's is performing a witch hunt.

The Democrats plans are to win the election
Take away everyone's guns
Use Social media data to identify everyone that voted against them
Try to change the minds that they can and use the IRS and the DOJ to go after the others.
Look the other way when huge shipments of opiods are sent to red states.

Crazy? Well they have already been shown to have done all of the above. So no, not crazy

On the other hand crazy is (Note the crowd reaction at the end)

HQewOFCx7c

[Mr. Perfect]

Get your guns now, liquidating conservatives will be the next step.

[Mr. Perfect]

Notable today, Rush Limbaugh is starting to go after nevertrumpers by name, which is highly unusual for him.

I will say though, Republicans were just as self destructive during the election and MSM predictions of doom were just as dire, and we ended up fine.

So here's hoping.