Russia

Re: Russia

Postby Endovelico » Sat Aug 15, 2015 12:05 am

Typhoon wrote:Economic theory is mostly non-predictive non-testable bunk.


There is nothing as arrogant as ingrained ignorance... Very common to people who have discovered that 2+2=4...
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Re: Russia

Postby Typhoon » Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:24 pm

Endovelico wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Economic theory is mostly non-predictive non-testable bunk.


There is nothing as arrogant as ingrained ignorance... Very common to people who have discovered that 2+2=4...


The most common phrase in economics:

"Economists were surprised that . . . [insert any non-linear economic event here]."
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Re: Russia

Postby Endovelico » Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:57 pm

Typhoon wrote:
Endovelico wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Economic theory is mostly non-predictive non-testable bunk.


There is nothing as arrogant as ingrained ignorance... Very common to people who have discovered that 2+2=4...


The most common phrase in economics:

"Economists were surprised that . . . [insert any non-linear economic event here]."


Only a lousy economist will be surprised by anything that happens in the economy. The major element of uncertainty in economics - and uncertainty does not have to generate surprise - is the economic agents' decision making process. You can never be sure of what an agent is going to do, when and why - although you may try to apply probabilistic calculus to it -, but once he has done whatever he decides to do, the result can hardly be surprising. All an economist needs to do is being prepared for whatever those agents decide...
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Re: Russia

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Wed Aug 19, 2015 7:37 am

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Re: Russia

Postby Parodite » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:00 pm

Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible by Peter Pomerantsev review – Putinism and the oil-boom years

Gangsters turned artists and Pushkin-spouting gold-diggers in a bleakly entertaining chronicle

The war in eastern Ukraine, rumbling into life once more after the collapse of an unsteady ceasefire, has created a widening breach between Russia and the west, with relations now worse than they have been in decades. In Russia, the hardening of the domestic consensus behind Putin has been helped along by the media’s increasingly strident nationalism, and by a propaganda chorus about western plots to undermine and destroy the country. The Kremlin’s control of the airwaves has been central to this effort; indeed, the capacity to bend public perceptions has been an integral part of Putin’s rule since he first came to power 15 years ago. But although his PR gurus have proved adept at blurring the boundaries between fiction and reality, they didn’t create the widespread disorientation on which Putinism thrives. As Peter Pomerantsev’s new book makes clear, it has much deeper roots, in the tumult and delirium of the country’s post-Soviet transformations.

[...]
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Re: Russia

Postby Typhoon » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:50 am

BB | Putin's Got a New Problem With China

Russia-China trade down 29% this year, far short of target


How's the new world order coming along?
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Re: Russia

Postby Typhoon » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:57 am

Endovelico wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Endovelico wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Economic theory is mostly non-predictive non-testable bunk.


There is nothing as arrogant as ingrained ignorance... Very common to people who have discovered that 2+2=4...


The most common phrase in economics:

"Economists were surprised that . . . [insert any non-linear economic event here]."


Only a lousy economist will be surprised by anything that happens in the economy. The major element of uncertainty in economics - and uncertainty does not have to generate surprise - is the economic agents' decision making process. You can never be sure of what an agent is going to do, when and why - although you may try to apply probabilistic calculus to it -, but once he has done whatever he decides to do, the result can hardly be surprising. All an economist needs to do is being prepared for whatever those agents decide...


If economists are so smart, then why are they not rich?

Economics has a math problem
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Re: Russia

Postby Endovelico » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:07 pm



Quantitative aspects of economics may be successfully handled with mathematics as long as the data is reliable... A big IF!...But on what concerns the psychological side of economics - why do economic agents do whatever they do? - mathematics is of little avail. But statistics and probabilities can and should be widely used.
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Re: Russia

Postby noddy » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:05 am

Endovelico wrote:Quantitative aspects of economics may be successfully handled with mathematics as long as the data is reliable... A big IF!


only after the fact and with no context or isolation that give it any meaning.

Endovelico wrote:...But on what concerns the psychological side of economics - why do economic agents do whatever they do? - mathematics is of little avail. But statistics and probabilities can and should be widely used.


this is why it isnt a science but more closely aligned with astrology or other forms of fortune telling.

poor little old me did an economics degree back in another lifetime, the article typhoon posted about reality being twisted to suit the models rather than the other way around is dead on the money from my experience.

as far as i can tell you can spot a psuedoscience by the fact it has multiple competing versions of the truth with different schools of thought - quantum physics and economics spring to mind :P
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Re: Russia

Postby Simple Minded » Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:51 pm

One of my friends has a degree in economics, he then went on to become a very successful builder. He claims economics is best described as a mixture of alchemy and poker.

In my mind, economics is much closer to psychology than to any hard science.

"Hmmmm..... Hard to tell the future..... always emotions." Yoda

I figured it was better career path planning to join the Bilderbergers......
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Re: Russia

Postby Endovelico » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:56 pm

Simple Minded wrote:One of my friends has a degree in economics, he then went on to become a very successful builder. He claims economics is best described as a mixture of alchemy and poker.

In my mind, economics is much closer to psychology than to any hard science.

"Hmmmm..... Hard to tell the future..... always emotions." Yoda

I figured it was better career path planning to join the Bilderbergers......


One cannot be a good economist without having some understanding of human nature. The idea that people are perfectly rational and completely informed is a myth but which must be accepted in order for economic modeling to make any sense. However it has no real expression in reality. But if you know more or less what makes people tick, then you may become an adequate economist.
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Re: Russia

Postby Mr. Perfect » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:09 pm

Typhoon wrote:
If economists are so smart, then why are they not rich?

Economics has a math problem

Bloomberg has an economics problem.

Asking why economists aren't rich is like asking why mechanics don't design cars. Or why doctors aren't professional athletes. Or why veterinarians don't retire from betting on horse and dog races. Etc

If you are equating wealth with smarts, again, I welcome your support of Donald Trump.
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Russian humour

Postby Alexis » Wed Sep 09, 2015 1:37 pm

Concerned mother: Sonny, don't take risks in Donetsk!

Young soldier: Don't worry Mum, I'm already in Damas!
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Re: Russia

Postby Typhoon » Tue Oct 13, 2015 1:42 pm

WSJ | Dutch Investigators Say MH17 Downed by Russian-Made Missile

Accident investigators also conclude that Ukraine should have closed airspace due to fighting in east


Perhaps airlines should also actively avoid airspace over areas where fighting is known to be taking place?

BBC | MH17 crash: Dutch Safety Board animation 'shows path of missile'

The Dutch Safety Board has released its final report into the fate of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17,
which crashed in Ukraine in July 2014, killing all 298 people on board.

The report found that the plane was hit by a Russian-made Buk missile.
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Re: Russia

Postby YMix » Tue Oct 13, 2015 4:58 pm

Typhoon wrote:Dutch Investigators Say MH17 Downed by Russian-Made Missile


Now we need to know who fired it.

Perhaps airlines should also actively avoid airspace over areas where fighting is known to be taking place?


Airlines can't keep up with news from all over the world and situations in war zones can change from day to day. That's why it was the Ukrainian government's responsibility to approve or reject the flight plan, depending on the situation on the ground.
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Pay Attention to the News and the Flight Plan........

Postby monster_gardener » Wed Oct 14, 2015 2:50 am

Typhoon wrote:WSJ | Dutch Investigators Say MH17 Downed by Russian-Made Missile

Accident investigators also conclude that Ukraine should have closed airspace due to fighting in east


Perhaps airlines should also actively avoid airspace over areas where fighting is known to be taking place?

BBC | MH17 crash: Dutch Safety Board animation 'shows path of missile'

The Dutch Safety Board has released its final report into the fate of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17,
which crashed in Ukraine in July 2014, killing all 298 people on board.

The report found that the plane was hit by a Russian-made Buk missile.


Thank You VERY MUCH for your post, Esteemed Typhoon,

Perhaps airlines should also actively avoid airspace over areas where fighting is known to be taking place?


BINGO!

But given this airline's safety record of late..... :roll:

And the squeeze the last cent out attitude of too many airlines........

Best that potential passengers be aware of the news and check the flight plan of their flights........ :idea:

Hindsight is 20/20......... :roll:
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Re: Russia

Postby Nonc Hilaire » Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:21 am

I thought ATC vectored them off the usual safe flight plan and had them fly into the war zone.
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Re: Russia

Postby noddy » Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:36 am

the entire northern hemisphere seems a bit dodgy of late.
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Re: Russia

Postby Typhoon » Wed Oct 14, 2015 5:38 am

noddy wrote:the entire northern hemisphere seems a bit dodgy of late.


One hopes, if that is indeed the case, then it is not a prelude to On the Beach. :wink:
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Re: Russia

Postby noddy » Wed Oct 14, 2015 9:41 am

Typhoon wrote:
noddy wrote:the entire northern hemisphere seems a bit dodgy of late.


One hopes, if that is indeed the case, then it is not a prelude to On the Beach. :wink:


heh. im not sure im quite that doomer pron about it yet.

however! history isnt that optimistic about what happens when euope, russsia, china and america are all having economic nightmares and poking each other hard via proxy wars.

fear of 'on the beach' is about all thats holding it together.. the scariest thought is a UN agreement to not use nukes, that would unleash hell.
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Re: Russia

Postby Parodite » Wed Oct 14, 2015 11:04 am

Conclusion of the Dutch OVV is that Ukraine should have closed their airspace and that the plane was shot down by a BUK rocket.

More interesting is the aside: head of the OVV mr Joustra was asked about the satellite images the US early on claimed to have which showed the missile fired and exact location from which it was launched. "Did you see those images?" Answer: only me and one other person were allowed to see them, but they were branded state secret and I am not allowed to tell what I saw. But I can tell that they support our conclusions as we presented them." (I hear that as "they do not contradict")

That kinda pisses me off. But the fun part is to speculate why they are kept "state secret" by the US.

Specu 1: If they prove that the missile was launched from separatist Novo Russia held territory at the time.. why keep that a secret? Makes zero sense. Nothing would be better for the US to blame the pro-Russian separatists with serious evidence.

Specu 2: it proves that the missile was launched not from separatist territory but from territory held by the Ukrainian army. It would not prove that the Ukrainian army did it... but makes them a prime suspect in the criminal investigation that is yet to follow. A good possible reason for the US to declare it state secret.

Specu 3: Following Specu 2... why initially claim with loud voice that they have proof it came from separatist territory, but having to back peddle later and declare it a state secret? That would be a stupid mistake.

Stupid mistakes need to always be covered up of course. It is what all involved parties there are very good at! Especially the tough heroic Novo Russia guys who accidentally downed the plain. "Oooops! It was a civil airliner... Sorry!!" (forget about a sorry ever coming forth) Doesn't look good on your CV in the New Machismo Russia of Hijo de Putin to do oopsy things.

Specu 4: a false flag by Zionist forces. Consult HP for the details.
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Re: Russia

Postby NapLajoieonSteroids » Wed Oct 14, 2015 11:24 am

Parodite wrote:Conclusion of the Dutch OVV is that Ukraine should have closed their airspace and that the plane was shot down by a BUK rocket.

More interesting is the aside: head of the OVV mr Joustra was asked about the satellite images the US early on claimed to have which showed the missile fired and exact location from which it was launched. "Did you see those images?" Answer: only me and one other person were allowed to see them, but they were branded state secret and I am not allowed to tell what I saw. But I can tell that they support our conclusions as we presented them." (I hear that as "they do not contradict")

That kinda pisses me off. But the fun part is to speculate why they are kept "state secret" by the US.

Specu 1: If they prove that the missile was launched from separatist Novo Russia held territory at the time.. why keep that a secret? Makes zero sense. Nothing would be better for the US to blame the pro-Russian separatists with serious evidence.

Specu 2: it proves that the missile was launched not from separatist territory but from territory held by the Ukrainian army. It would not prove that the Ukrainian army did it... but makes them a prime suspect in the criminal investigation that is yet to follow. A good possible reason for the US to declare it state secret.

Specu 3: Following Specu 2... why initially claim with loud voice that they have proof it came from separatist territory, but having to back peddle later and declare it a state secret? That would be a stupid mistake.

Stupid mistakes need to always be covered up of course. It is what all involved parties there are very good at! Especially the tough heroic Novo Russia guys who accidentally downed the plain. "Oooops! It was a civil airliner... Sorry!!" (forget about a sorry ever coming forth) Doesn't look good on your CV in the New Machismo Russia of Hijo de Putin to do oopsy things.

Specu 4: a false flag by Zionist forces. Consult HP for the details.


The Zionists! Even when I wasn't thinkin' it was them, it was 'dem!

May I make another suggestion along the lines of 3?

There was an overall plan to besmirch for the sake of public opinion, and it almost didn't matter how it was done. Almost being the keyword. A segment of people jumped the gun and threw that out there into the media without thinking through the implications, and the rest of the PTB walked it back slowly because that sort of thing is the makings of direct conflict and not just public relations warfare/proxy war- and no matter who fired what, I don't think anyone at this moment is looking forward to that anytime soon.
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Re: Russia

Postby Simple Minded » Wed Oct 14, 2015 12:02 pm

noddy wrote:the entire northern hemisphere seems a bit dodgy of late.


population density is too high.... we need more lebensraum.....
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Re: Russia

Postby Simple Minded » Wed Oct 14, 2015 12:11 pm

NapLajoieonSteroids wrote:
Parodite wrote:
Specu 4: a false flag by Zionist forces. Consult HP for the details.


The Zionists! Even when I wasn't thinkin' it was them, it was 'dem!

May I make another suggestion along the lines of 3?



"The Joos did it!" That's exactly what the reptilians want you to think. C'mon guys, wake up!
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Re: Russia

Postby noddy » Wed Oct 14, 2015 12:12 pm

Simple Minded wrote:
noddy wrote:the entire northern hemisphere seems a bit dodgy of late.


population density is too high.... we need more lebensraum.....


the strine word for it is fowf.
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