France

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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: France

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Mr. Perfect wrote:When is the run off? Two weeks?

Final vote is May 7th

MP .. head of left, all unions and and and head, said right now on French TV, their followers should vote for Macron

French all in-closet leftist.

In that sense, ZERO chance for Le Pen .. President Macron as sure bet as you can get .. 1000% sure bet

Remember I predicted Trump win ? I predict now Macron win

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Mr. Perfect
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Re: France

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Lol you also predicted Trump would resign or be impeached by now, bannon fired (still working). Things changed, France has voted in right wing President many times. Still, I give Le pen only 20%.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: France

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Mr. Perfect wrote:.

Lol you also predicted Trump would resign or be impeached by now, bannon fired (still working). Things changed, France has voted in right wing President many times. Still, I give Le pen only 20%.

.

Still saying Trump will resign or be impeached .. did not say "by now" .. he not even 100 days in office, and achieved pretty much nothing .. Iranians still coming and going, free :D

Bannon ! ! ! still working ? ? maybe working in White House kitchen, as buss boy :lol: .. come on, MP, our beloved U.S of A. really deserves better than Bannon.

French election already decided .. President will be Macron .. Euro jumped from 1.07 to 1.1 U$ .. 3% .. that is huge in currency market.

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Parodite
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Re: France

Post by Parodite »

The French will vote Macron, Azari is right. But the meaning of it is: they believe that not voting for Le Pen "the extreme right" means saving La France.

Voting Macron will however result in the opposite: the further erosion of French democracy by transferring more power to Brussels and not allowing the French to control their own borders. He is also a closet socialist who wants more central control for the gvt promoting same policies as Hollande. To make things worse he is a corporatist who loves unchecked globalism. As such he is not interested in democracy bottom-up and does not respect the fact that the only functional units where democracy means anything are hard fought for democratic nation states. Remember his background is investment banking. The same type of people who pushed in Europe for the EU and the disaster that is the Eurozone.

To explain how it is possible that whole nations are willing to transfer more and more powers to supra-national political and economic forces that are not exposed to a bottom-up democratic process and being OK letting others decide who should be allowed in and out of their own country is an interesting subject matter. In general follow the money seems a good start to find some clues. Follow the BIG money.
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Alexis
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Re: France

Post by Alexis »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:OK , folks, I want this put on the record here, right now
Azari predicts French president will be "Emmanuel Macron"
You're not taking a very big risk.
1000% sure
That's a bit too much, though. "Zero-risk" doesn't exist. :)
Parodite wrote:Macron is a pro-EU corporatist with a banking background. A wet dream for Juncker. He supposedly will be the next Presidaaant and the last of France in the EU.
For Juncker, Merkel, etc.

Yes that's the most probable scenario: Macron wins then completes the work of convincing enough French people that EU and globalization are very detrimental to them. Then the opposition, that is Le Pen, replaces the failed president, the one who did even worse than Hollande.

There are other scenarios, though. Like David P Goldman justly said, "Macron is pure bubble". That bubble will obviously pop.

Most probably, it will do so after his election. However, if Macron pops within the next two weeks... :)
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Re: France

Post by Parodite »

Alexis wrote:
Parodite wrote:Macron is a pro-EU corporatist with a banking background. A wet dream for Juncker. He supposedly will be the next Presidaaant and the last of France in the EU.
For Juncker, Merkel, etc.

Yes that's the most probable scenario: Macron wins then completes the work of convincing enough French people that EU and globalization are very detrimental to them. Then the opposition, that is Le Pen, replaces the failed president, the one who did even worse than Hollande.

There are other scenarios, though. Like David P Goldman justly said, "Macron is pure bubble". That bubble will obviously pop.

Most probably, it will do so after his election. However, if Macron pops within the next two weeks... :)
The earlier the better :) Macron seems to represent just more of the same of Hollande so more downhill, yet he frames himself as a revolutionary who wants reform reform REFORM. Obama came in with Yes we can but couldn't. Macron won't either but has no skin colour for identity politics to cover up for him. Maybe indeed he will pop early on. The end of white privilege. :D
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: France

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.

French Conservatives, Socialists say :
They will back Macron for president


Senior French conservatives and Socialist presidential candidate Benoit Hamon said on Sunday that they would back centrist Emmanuel Macron in a May 7 runoff against far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

After initial projections indicated Macron and Le Pen had qualified for the second round, Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon told supporters his party had suffered an "historic blow" from its voter base and called on voters to back Macron and reject Le Pen in "the strongest possible way".

On the other side of the traditional political spectrum, former prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, a member of defeated candidate Francois Fillon's The Republicans party, said: "Without hesitation, as far as I'm concerned we've got to rally behind Emmanuel Macron."

Napoleon was my favorit ruler of Europe .. French will save the Europe .. Angela will gladly pay the price Macron be asking.

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Re: France

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.


:lol: :lol:
Russia Campaigns for the French Presidency


For the Kremlin, the stakes are high in the French elections. Moscow sees France as a potential counterweight not only against Germany in the European Union, but also against the United States in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). France, moreover, is critical to the negotiations over the conflict in eastern Ukraine as one of four members of the so-called Normandy Group. The run-up to the elections offers the Russian government a chance to either help usher a more sympathetic figure into power in Paris or to create enough chaos to keep France focused on its own problems for the near future. The country is already deeply divided, making it all the more vulnerable to Russian influence.
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Re: France

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Alex, keep us apprised of polling if you wouldn't mind.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: France

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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Mr. Perfect wrote:Alex, keep us apprised of polling if you wouldn't mind.

Parties in France Unite Against Marine Le Pen

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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: France

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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Macron and his mother Brigitte Macron .. :lol:



Emmanuel-Macron.jpeg
Emmanuel-Macron.jpeg (34.77 KiB) Viewed 1469 times

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Alexis
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A narrow window of opportunity, but an open one

Post by Alexis »

Mr. Perfect wrote:Alex, keep us apprised of polling if you wouldn't mind.
Latest polls place Macron around 60-61%, Le Pen at 39-40%.

This Wiki page, updated very frequently, includes all the latest polls. It is in French, but the link directs to the exact table listing those polls - and one doesn't need to understand the language to read the figures! :)

This evening, Le Pen was interviewed in length on the TV. She was very strong, very efficient in denouncing Macron's project and what he stands for.

No denying that the task is hard. Winning back 10-12% within two weeks would be a real feat. However... it would not be unprecedented.

In 2005, when the treaty for EU constitution was proposed to referendum, initial polls had around 65% planning to vote Yes. Then... there was a campaign, a lot of debates in the population as the exact content of the treaty was read and analyzed. And in spite of a constant and nearly unanimous and often strident barrage of pro-Yes propaganda from political parties, the media, the unions, you name it... the French refused the treaty by 55%.

That is, about 20% of the whole population had changed its mind from Yes to No.

Obviously, one success is no guarantee that you will succeed again the next time. Also, two weeks is really a short time. The window of opportunity is undisputably a narrow one.

But it is indeed open.

The great paradox is that Macron, now supported by 60%+ of French, is the very concentrate of what a majority of French has come to reject - unbridled economic globalization, open borders, multi-culturalism instead of assimilation for immigrants, submission of France to unelected EU institutions, rule of the banks, continuation of the worst presidency in postwar history.

And yet he is the one that "the system", I mean essentially the banking / media / EU institutions complex, has chosen as its last line of defense, as the emergency replacement for the two pro-globalization pro-EU parties of left and right that have essentially collapsed last Sunday.

He is fragile. He is a bluff, he is "all bubble", like David P. Goldman very justly said. At the same time, two weeks is awfully short.

These will be two thrilling weeks.


Yep. Like they did in 2005... :P
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: France

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.

I thought about this .. not anymore sure Macron will be next president .. too young, unexperienced, neither in politics nor economy or anything else .. his election would be continuation of status quo .. he does not have the zist to push and execute big changes .. his election would be same as Hollande reelected.

Le Pen could be the one

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About Le Pen's "racism"

Post by Alexis »

Additional information, which will hopefully put an end to the rumors and propaganda about Marine Le Pen's "racism". :)

About 4% of French population live in the "overseas departements", mostly a series of islands in different oceans, plus Guyane in South America. Those French are a mix of Blacks, Whites, various races etc. - ethnic statistics are forbidden by law in France, but you just have to look at pictures and remember the largely slave origin of those citizens, whose history is largely parallel to Black Americans.

While mostly white "metropolitan France" placed Marine Le Pen second, they put her in first place. :mrgreen:

Go propagandize about Le Pen's "racism", "xenophobia", or "fascism" after that! :lol:
Simple Minded

Re: France

Post by Simple Minded »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

I thought about this .. not anymore sure Macron will be next president .. too young, unexperienced, neither in politics nor economy or anything else .. his election would be continuation of status quo .. he does not have the zist to push and execute big changes .. his election would be same as Hollande reelected.

Le Pen could be the one

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1000% sure Macron will win to Le Pen could be the one in only 26 hours!! :shock: :? :)

HP, You could be making big money in the American MSM community.
Simple Minded

Re: About Le Pen's "racism"

Post by Simple Minded »

Alexis wrote: ...ethnic statistics are forbidden by law in France....
Interesting. I would expect this would translate into "French Political Experts" are more accurate in their predictions than "American Political Experts" just because they have less data at their disposal to deliberately distort or misread due to inherent ideology and biases.

Keep us posted Mon Ami! (That's French for My Bro!)
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Re: France

Post by Alexis »

Simple Minded wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:Le Pen could be the one
1000% sure Macron will win to Le Pen could be the one in only 26 hours!! :shock: :? :)

HP, You could be making big money in the American MSM community.
HP's thinking is perfectly understandable.

The more one thinks about the runoff between Macron and Le Pen, the more unpredictable it appears. :)

Obviously, no matter the winner, political commentators will be there to explain not only why it happened, but why nothing else could have happened. And one day, historians will be even more positive about the processes at play, and why it couldn't be any other way.

They will do that after the fact, though. :mrgreen:

Simple Minded wrote:
Alexis wrote: ...ethnic statistics are forbidden by law in France....
Interesting. I would expect this would translate into "French Political Experts" are more accurate in their predictions than "American Political Experts" just because they have less data at their disposal to deliberately distort or misread due to inherent ideology and biases.
Your optimism is a pleasure to watch. :)

I would rather think that American political experts are even less accurate than French political ones. But then, I shudder at that thought... :?
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Same players, same playbook - All Against the Russian Menace

Post by Alexis »

Opening French newspapers today...

Macron's campaign is indeed targeted by Russian hackers (article in French)

Same players, same playbook, shoot again! :lol:

Ye patriotic French, stop the Russian menace and Emmanuel Goldstein - sorry Vladimir Putin targeting France to put her under his boot and drawn her in the abyss of Sin!

My God, could these people not be creative for a change? :mrgreen:

Image


Image
Simple Minded

Re: France

Post by Simple Minded »

Alexis wrote:
HP's thinking is perfectly understandable.

The more one thinks about the runoff between Macron and Le Pen, the more unpredictable it appears. :)

Obviously, no matter the winner, political commentators will be there to explain not only why it happened, but why nothing else could have happened. And one day, historians will be even more positive about the processes at play, and why it couldn't be any other way.

They will do that after the fact, though. :mrgreen:
Political experts often remind me of baseball broadcasters. After every single pitch thrown during the baseball season, they have another reason to splain to the rubes, why they are modifying their previous predictions of who will win the world series. But hey, they get paid to fill airtime, not to be accurate.
Alexis wrote:
Your optimism is a pleasure to watch. :)

I would rather think that American political experts are even less accurate than French political ones. But then, I shudder at that thought... :?
Thanks for the kind words. As they used to say in the consulting trade, the definition of expert is any guy who lives more than 50 miles away. More information for the "experts", means more potential outcomes.

"Technically, I was not wrong, I just knew too much!"

Removing demographic stats from French politics must make your political discussions much less emotional and more informative than the American version of French Vanilla.

By not focusing on either melanin, ancestry, or genitalia as major criteria, how do you guys ever decide who to vote for? :?
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Re: France

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Simple Minded wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

I thought about this .. not anymore sure Macron will be next president .. too young, unexperienced, neither in politics nor economy or anything else .. his election would be continuation of status quo .. he does not have the zist to push and execute big changes .. his election would be same as Hollande reelected.

Le Pen could be the one

.
1000% sure Macron will win to Le Pen could be the one in only 26 hours!! :shock: :? :)

HP, You could be making big money in the American MSM community.

.

Macron does not represent any change .. voters might think, the bureaucrat got the message that people unhappy, will correct/solve the issues, therefore less risky, let's not shake the boat, let's elect Macron

But French Joe know system needs a "violent shake up", that is Le Pen

Macron will not do the trick, French "bureaucrat" part of the problem, they would not "self-correct", they had many chances to do that and didn't, French know this

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Re: France

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.


Pat Buchanan has it right, very much so.


For the French establishment,
Sunday’s presidential election came close to a near-death experience.


Neither candidate of the two major parties that have ruled France since Charles De Gaulle even made it into the runoff, an astonishing repudiation of France’s national elite.

:lol:


Well, Monsieur Alexis, that is the truth .. French ruling elite went "faillite"

Sarkozi, Straus Kahn etc, in reality crooks, worst than Hillary

I really think, 5 yrs Le Pen will cure the malaise

I'm votin Le Pen


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Parodite
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Re: France

Post by Parodite »

Bizarre situation. Le Pen, who in fact has a pro-democracy agenda and wants the French to decide by referendum whether they want to stay in the EU and have control over their own borders... is being framed by her opponents as "extreme right", "nationalist", "populist", "anti-Europe". As if holding democratic values ​​in high regard is a feature of the extreme right! The opposite is true. An upside down world.

Democratic control over your own borders and immigration policy does not automatically mean less immigration; it only means that the French decide on their own in a healthy democratic way on these matters that matter to them. The reason for this becoming a hot issue may be Islam, but it is primarily about the democratic principle.

I think Le Pen should make the democratic principle the core issue and aggressively frame Macron as an anti-democratic Eurocrat, communist or fascist: he is either one of them or all three. That she at least wants give the French people the last word on staying in or leaving the EU via a referendum. Which is how these matters of such magnitude should be decided upon: democratically.

The policy of Brussels is in fact extreme right wing(or extreme left wing depending on how you look at it) because it is undemocratic, autocratic and, in fact...anti-Europe.

Everything that Europe was and still is ... is slowly breaking down. A "neighborhood" of democratic nation states that all have their own culture, language and history. A diversity that makes the whole stronger and culturally more beautiful and interesting. Before the Eurozone a healthier configuration when countries had their own currency and could devaluate in order to compete better. The "northern-European Euro" and the central intervention of the European Council is like a millstone around the neck of countries in southern Europe and the main reason for the bankruptcy of Greece. And our pension savings that evaporate keeping Greece alive on life support.

The EU is anti-Europe, not Le Pen.
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Simple Minded

Re: France

Post by Simple Minded »

Parodite wrote:Bizarre situation. Le Pen, who in fact has a pro-democracy agenda and wants the French to decide by referendum whether they want to stay in the EU and have control over their own borders... is being framed by her opponents as "extreme right", "nationalist", "populist", "anti-Europe". As if holding democratic values ​​in high regard is a feature of the extreme right! The opposite is true. An upside down world.

Democratic control over your own borders and immigration policy does not automatically mean less immigration; it only means that the French decide on their own in a healthy democratic way on these matters that matter to them. The reason for this becoming a hot issue may be Islam, but it is primarily about the democratic principle.

I think Le Pen should make the democratic principle the core issue and aggressively frame Macron as an anti-democratic Eurocrat, communist or fascist: he is either one of them or all three. That she at least wants give the French people the last word on staying in or leaving the EU via a referendum. Which is how these matters of such magnitude should be decided upon: democratically.

The policy of Brussels is in fact extreme right wing(or extreme left wing depending on how you look at it) because it is undemocratic, autocratic and, in fact...anti-Europe.

Everything that Europe was and still is ... is slowly breaking down. A "neighborhood" of democratic nation states that all have their own culture, language and history. A diversity that makes the whole stronger and culturally more beautiful and interesting. Before the Eurozone a healthier configuration when countries had their own currency and could devaluate in order to compete better. The "northern-European Euro" and the central intervention of the European Council is like a millstone around the neck of countries in southern Europe and the main reason for the bankruptcy of Greece. And our pension savings that evaporate keeping Greece alive on life support.

The EU is anti-Europe, not Le Pen.
Well said Parodite. Substitute DC for Brussels, states for European nations, and Americans for Europeans, and you have a good description of this side of the pond.

Powerful centralized control is rarely good for the members of the tribe. More for them means less for someone. Hence the perpetual creation of boogeymen, threats, and crises to maintain the appearance that more tools are needed.
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Re: France

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Parodite wrote:The "northern-European Euro" and the central intervention of the European Council is like a millstone around the neck of countries in southern Europe and the main reason for the bankruptcy of Greece. And our pension savings that evaporate keeping Greece alive on life support.
Among the puzzling aspects of the MoU are demands for reforms on things seemingly trivial as milk. While pensioners are eating out of garbage cans, the troika has been haggling over how old a carton of milk can be if it is to be labeled “fresh.” Stiglitz observes that if you look closely you see that special interests — in this case the big dairy companies of Holland — appear to be behind the reforms. Dutch milk sellers would prefer that their milk, which travels long distances to reach Greece, be allowed to call itself fresh — a move that will only hurt local dairies. By discouraging local production, the MoU paves the way for even more Greek unemployment and less demand for goods and services — hardly a recipe for economic health. (The chairman of the Eurogroup, it may be worth noting, is Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch Finance minister).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lynn-parr ... 20522.html
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Parodite
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Re: France

Post by Parodite »

YMix wrote:
Parodite wrote:The "northern-European Euro" and the central intervention of the European Council is like a millstone around the neck of countries in southern Europe and the main reason for the bankruptcy of Greece. And our pension savings that evaporate keeping Greece alive on life support.
Among the puzzling aspects of the MoU are demands for reforms on things seemingly trivial as milk. While pensioners are eating out of garbage cans, the troika has been haggling over how old a carton of milk can be if it is to be labeled “fresh.” Stiglitz observes that if you look closely you see that special interests — in this case the big dairy companies of Holland — appear to be behind the reforms. Dutch milk sellers would prefer that their milk, which travels long distances to reach Greece, be allowed to call itself fresh — a move that will only hurt local dairies. By discouraging local production, the MoU paves the way for even more Greek unemployment and less demand for goods and services — hardly a recipe for economic health. (The chairman of the Eurogroup, it may be worth noting, is Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch Finance minister).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lynn-parr ... 20522.html
Stiglitz is exactly right in his diagnosis. Dutch milk being shipped to Greece is an example of everything that is wrong and goes wrong making things worse for Greece. Btw 90% of the money that goes from the North to the debt obligations of Greece is not invested in Greece, but to shady banks in Southern Europe as well as the even darker Deutsche Bank and is a defacto continuous bail-out stream of money to keep those bankrupt-near bankrupt banks afloat on northerner tax payer money.

Stiglitz has a proposal for a Greek Euro, but it won't work either. Greece's dept should be officially written off (which is basically the case anyways..they only need to pay back hundred years from now), then it should have its own currency back (name unimportant), banks holding those written off debts should go to the butcher as they did in Iceland and put back those sanitized banks into the market run by different managers who know the difference between stupid and responsible. Then leave it to the Greek people what gvt they want, how to organize their economy etc. Just my worthy Dutch two cents.

Dijsselbloem is out anyways most likely and fortunately. A typical double agent for international banking, corporate globalism, salon socialism, EU central mismanagement and sitting there to serve Dutch self-interest all at the same time. Too many hats for one man to wear. No wonder he started to make funny remarks about women and alcohol; most likely projection.
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