The war ahead .. and what it could mean

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Alexis
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Alexis »

AzariLoveIran wrote:if Iran is militarily attacked , Pandora box is opened to unforeseen event .. but .. one thing will be sure .. west will lose control of Middle Eastern Oil and will be pushed out of that space
A Pandora box would be opened, yes. And quite disastrous consequences would follow, which is the reason why US leadership won't attack militarily Iran in present circumstances.

However, the US would surely not be pushed out of the Gulf.

As I said, the geopolitical importance of that region will increase in the next decades because the last reserves of oil will be there. If the US leadership was to disastrously err in aggressing Iran, they would have to bear the consequences (and global economy even more), but bearing those consequences would have to include doing everything what's necessary to reestablish control of Gulf oil resources. No matter what level of military aggression would be necessary to reestablish it.

In any event, the US have many times enough military margin to ensure that outcome. And the stakes are too high for them to not do absolutely everything to maintain control no matter what. GCC members know it.
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Alexis
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Alexis »

YMix wrote:
Alexis wrote:Getting to the core of the matter, domination of Iran looks attractive to America not primarily because of Russia nor China, but because of the Gulf, which concentrates by far the globe's largest reserves of fossil energy.
It goes a bit farther than the Gulf.
All other issues related to Iran are second- or even third-order compared to that one.

Iranian R&D towards nuclear weaponry would elicit barely more than formal protests, if not for Gulf fossil energy resources.
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by YMix »

The area where fossil energy resources are located stretches from the tip of the Arabic Peninsula to Kazakhstan. The Gulf is only a part of it.
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by monster_gardener »

Alexis wrote:
YMix wrote:
Alexis wrote:Getting to the core of the matter, domination of Iran looks attractive to America not primarily because of Russia nor China, but because of the Gulf, which concentrates by far the globe's largest reserves of fossil energy.
It goes a bit farther than the Gulf.
All other issues related to Iran are second- or even third-order compared to that one.

Iranian R&D towards nuclear weaponry would elicit barely more than formal protests, if not for Gulf fossil energy resources.
Thank you Very Much for your post, Alexis.

"
Iranian R&D towards nuclear weaponry would elicit barely more than formal protests, if not for Gulf fossil energy resources.
"

IMVHO the important factor is the religious-fanaticism/political orientation of Iran. The price of oil is negotiable and there are alternatives if we/US are willing to make the effort............

What you are going to do with the nukes/WMDs is the real question.........

IIRC the Shah was developing nuclear energy and I don't remember it being such a big concern for us/US/Israel/the World..........

The Norks are dorks :wink: but left alone I doubt that their ambitions extend beyond South Korea if that far........... IMVHO As long as the Kims Ills have their power and get their luxuries, they don't care..............

OTOH with religious fanatics who AIUI long for enough world chaos to bring the Madhi to Rise out of his Well in Qom to lead the Shia to victory over the Satans greater and lesser, over the hated loony :wink: Sunnis and infidels in general...........

That's the question, Nukes for deterrence or for aggression/domination.............

or something better................

Maybe the long term solution is for Orion to Rise ..............

Get some of humanity's eggs into other baskets............

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_O ... pulsion%29
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by AzariLoveIran »

YMix wrote:.

The area where fossil energy resources are located stretches from the tip of the Arabic Peninsula to Kazakhstan. The Gulf is only a part of it.

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Ibrahim
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Ibrahim »

The dangers of any conflict with Iran are strictly economic. Oil prices are not tied to actual supply or which oil comes from exactly where, but a disruption of Iranian crude would drive up worldwide prices of oil as a commodity, and this is bad for the already struggling global economy.

Moreover, direct US military action against Iran (I suppose an air/naval campaign is possible, certainly no "boots on the ground") would have a major price tag at a time when the US is looking to cut its military and everything else, and has a relatively exhausted armed forces after a decade of constant conflict. The work-around here would be getting the EU to foot most of the bill, like Libya on an even greater percentage.


But Iran is only threatening to close off Hormuz because the US is pressuring them with sanctions, which is a pointless act in the first place. I'm not one who sees Israeli influence everywhere, but its pretty obvious here. In all of the potential shitstorm scenarios they are the only one who benefits.
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Azrael »

Enki wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Enki wrote:Vietnam was ravaged, the ability to fight of the enemy was broken, the domino theory actually worked, and now today, Vietnam is being used to encircle China.
The ability of the enemy to fight was broken?]. Not quite.

It only took the US half a century and a defeat, after great expense in men and material, to figure out that there is historical animosity between the Vietnamese and the Chinese that goes back centuries.

LOL
It's no laughing matter. The big shots keep making the same mistakes: we went to war with Iraq supposedly without knowing about the thousand years of animosity between Shiites and Sunnis. The war profiteers get richer, the taxpayers get poorer, and our troops and innocent Iraqis (Vietnamese, or whomever's turn it is) gets slaughtered.
That comment refers to the sorts of reasons why I think the Cold War was completely unecessary. If we had hung back, let people make their little social experiments and watch them fail only to be there ready to lend a helping hand to pick up the pieces, we'd be in a much better shape than we are today.
No kidding. But the big shots and the war profiteers wouldn't be better off, which is why they made sure it didn't go down that way.
I am more and more convinced that ultimately the reason man goes to war, is because he likes it.
Yep. And we keep looking for a boogyman to replace the USSR. We spend more on "defense" than the next ten countries combined and even the suggestion of slight cuts are met with cries of "leaving America defenseless against the next Pearl Harbor". I guess we're trying to replace the Imperial Japanese Navy, too.
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Typhoon
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Typhoon »

Mr. Perfect wrote:A communist is someone who wishes the SU would have succeeded, or a Democrat, or most people from the left.
So about half the population of the US is communist?
Mr. Perfect wrote:The reason is that while technically some people on the left may not be communist they never did one darn thing to stop them.
The nuclear missile [non-existent] gap buildup, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the escalation of the Vietnam War, etc occurred during Republicrat admins?

Prominent leftists such as

George Orwell never wrote Animal Farm?

Milovan Đilas never criticized communism and never dissented?

Leszek Kołakowski never wrote Main Currents of Marxism?

André Gide never criticized communism?

Arthur Koestler never wrote Darkness at Noon?

Czesław Miłosz never wrote The Captive Mind?
Mr. Perfect wrote:They are then like the street people from the Matrix, eventual proxies/patsies for the communists when they come calling.

All such people need to be neutralized. Politically.
Would not "politically neutralized" mean the end of the US republic and democracy?

I'm a bit skeptical, to say the least, that you will see such an event come to pass.

For whatever reason[s], some combination of nature and nuture, in any group of people there are different perceptions and interpretations of the world around them.

This board is a microcosm of this observation.

Anyways, it's bemusing to read 1950's Cold War rhetoric today.
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Zack Morris »

Typhoon wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:The reason is that while technically some people on the left may not be communist they never did one darn thing to stop them.
The nuclear missile [non-existent] gap buildup, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the escalation of the Vietnam War, etc occurred during Republicrat admins?

Prominent leftists such as

George Orwell never wrote Animal Farm?

Milovan Đilas never criticized communism and never dissented?

Leszek Kołakowski never wrote Main Currents of Marxism?

André Gide never criticized communism?

Arthur Koestler never wrote Darkness at Noon?

Czesław Miłosz never wrote The Captive Mind?
This is a typical conservative debating strategy: lie, loudly repeat the lie, and then downplay the other side's commitment to the same ideas. We saw this a lot at the old Spengler forum, for example when liberal feminists (actually, all liberals) were accused of being sympathetic to Islamists, or of preferring Islam to Christianity, because they never wrote about or criticized blatantly sexist practices in the Islamic world. Of course, this is utterly false and several writings and even organizations focused on this topic are out there, but apparently, they do not carry the moral authority of fringe conservative newsletters or windbags on Faux News.
AzariLoveIran

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by AzariLoveIran »

.

US stations 15,000 troops in Kuwait


.

The United States is not at war with Iran yet, but just in case,the Pentagon says they want to be prepared. To do so, the Department of Defense has dispatched 15,000 troops to the neighboring nation of Kuwait.

Gen. James Mattis, the Marine Corps head that rules over the US Central Command, won approval late last year from the White House to deploy the massive surge to the tiny West Asian country Kuwait, which is separated from Iran by only a narrow span of the Persian Gulf.

The latest deployment, which was ushered in without much presentation to the public, adds a huge number of troops aligned with America’s arsenal that are now surrounding Iran on literally every front. In late 2011, the US equipped neighboring United Arab Emirates with advanced weaponry created to disrupt underground nuclear operations. In adjacent Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq, American military presence has long been all but enormous.

While the US has not placed any boots on the ground in Iran, an unauthorized surveillance mission of a US steal drone in December prompted Tehran to become enraged at Washington. US officials insist that Iran is on the verge of a nuclear weaponry program, despite lacking sufficient evidence or confirmation. During the drone mission, Iran authorities intercepted the craft and forced it into a safe landing. Tensions have only worsened between the two nations in the month since, but Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said that stealth missions into Iran will continue “absolutely,” despite ongoing opposition from overseas.

In calling for the latest surge to Kuwait, Gen.Mattis said the deployment was necessary to keep Iran in check and keep America prepared for any other threats in the area. It comes only weeks after the last American troops vacated nearby Iraq, where the US still in actuality has an advance presence — the American embassy in Baghdad employs thousands of armed military contractors.

The move to build up military presence in Kuwait comes at a time when the foreign government is at odds to a degree with a US. While protesters in America this week have demonstrated against the ten year anniversary of the opening of the Guantanamo Bay prison facility, the Kuwait government has increased efforts to have two of their own men transferred out of Gitmo and sent back home. Both Fawzi al-Odah and Fayiz al-Kandari have been detained at Guantanamo since 2002, although only one of the two Kuwaiti citizens has ever been charged.

.


Thousands of US troops deploying to Israel

.

Without much media attention, thousands of American troops are being deployed to Israel, and Iranian officials believe that this is the latest and most blatant warning that the US will soon be attacking Tehran.

Tensions between nations have been high in recent months and have only worsened in the weeks since early December when Iran hijacked and recovered an American drone aircraft. Many have speculated that a back-and-forth between the two countries will soon escalate Iran and the US into an all-out war, and that event might occur sooner than thought.

Under the Austere Challenge 12 drill scheduled for an undisclosed time during the next few weeks, the Israeli military will together with America host the largest-ever joint missile drill by the two countries. Following the installation of American troops near Iran’s neighboring Strait of Hormuz and the reinforcing of nearby nations with US weapons, Tehran authorities are considering this not a test but the start of something much bigger.

In the testing, America's Theater High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile system will be operating alongside its ship-based Aegis system and Israel's own program to work with Arrow, Patriot and Iron Drone missiles.

Israeli military officials say that the testing was planned before recent episodes involving the US and Iran. Of concern, however, is how the drill will require the deployment of thousands of American troops into Israel. The Jerusalem Post quotes US Commander Lt.-Gen Frank Gorenc as saying the drill is not just an “exercise” but also a “deployment” that will involve “several thousand American soldiers” heading to Israel. Additionally, new command posts will be established by American forces in Israel and that country’s own IDF army will begin working from a base in Germany.

In September, the US European Command established a radar system in Israel.

With America previously equipping Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with weaponry to wreck any chance of an Iranian nuclear weapon program from close by, the US will now have added forces on the ready in Israel and Germany under what Tehran fears is a guise being merely perpetrated as a test-run. RT reported last week that the US is equipping Saudi Arabia with nearly $30 billion F-15 war planes, a deal that comes shortly after Washington worked out a contract with Dubai to give the UAE advanced “bunker buster” bombs that could decimate underground nuclear operations in neighboring Iran.

Since the US surveillance mission over Iran that left overseas intelligence with a captured American drone aircraft, tensions have only escalated between the two nations. After Iran threatened to close down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial path for the nation’s oil trade, the US dispatched 15,000 marines into the area.

.


.
AzariLoveIran

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by AzariLoveIran »

.

Look folks ,

Seems, where west, Europe, is weak and helpless .. in energy .. a bottleneck and key for western hopes in the future , is working at normal capacity, it transports 1 million barrels per day

The population of what they call now "Azerbaijan", in reality Iranian provinces (annexed by Russian Tzars) "Shirvan and Arran" are Iranian Shia, and, vehemently Iranian patriot .. Iran, probably, has "one million plus" Iranian Azari infiltrate in Baku, they not distinguishable of locals, meaning same as locals

So

my guess is

Iran, Armenia .. AND .. Russia , could do same as Russia did in Georgia .. meaning genuflect "Haydar Aliyev" and his Nakhchevan Mafia clan

As a starter it would rob Europe of 1 million barrel of oil a day .. but that just the start .. all talk of Turkaman gas and oil exiting through Caucasus would be into toilet

and

beauty of this

is

West is impotent doing anything

no

Nato, Turkey can't move .. because the population in Azerbaijan would be unfriendly to Nato (risking a 2nd Chechnya & Afghanistan) and Russia and Iran

This scenario seems to me more easy win, at this stage, than Persian Golf crony Amirates

Persian Golf and KSA cronies are like a rotten tomato .. look OK, but once you touch them, they done .. need a bit more time to get really ripe for picking

sign point to this scenario :D


Zionist have established a base in Baku, agitating against Iran

Mossad agent Brenda Shaffer leading the effort :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlHsjYgw1lo


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brenda_shaffer

.

Touraj Atabaki, who is a Professor of Social History at the University of Amsterdam and a Senior Research Fellow at the International Institute of Social History, critically challenged Shaffer in his review of her "Borders and Brethren: Iran and the Challenge of Azerbaijani Identity"[5]
“ With Brenda Shaffer's Borders and Brethren one would expect a contribution to our understanding of future developments in Iran as well as in the neighboring countries. Within the first two chapters, however, the reader becomes disappointed with the unbalanced and sometimes even biased political appraisal that not only dominates the author's methodology but also shapes her selective amnesia in recalling historical data." ”


Atabaki concludes his review by stating "Borders and Brethren is an excellent example of how a political agenda can dehistoricize and decontextualize history".[5]

Ken Silverstein, of Harpers Magazine, in an article titled "Academics for Hire", comments:
“ Harvard's program is led by Brenda Shaffer, who is so eager to back regimes in the region that she makes Starr look like a dissident. A 2001 brief she wrote, “U.S. Policy toward the Caspian Region: Recommendations for the Bush Administration,” commended Bush for “intensified U.S. activity in the region, and the recognition of the importance of the area to the pursuit of U.S. national interests.” Shaffer has also called on Congress to overturn Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which was passed in 1992 and bars direct aid to the Azeri government. The law has not yet been repealed, but the Bush Administration has been waiving it since 2002, as a payoff for Azeri support in the “war on terrorism.”

Harvard's Caspian Studies Program receives a lot of money from both the oil companies and from some of the governments.” I share Starr's concerns here, and since I briefly mentioned Harvard in my original story, and since several readers asked for more details, let me provide it here. As I had previously reported, the Caspian Studies Program (CSP) was launched in 1999 with a $1 million grant from the United States‒Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce (USACC) and a consortium of companies led by ExxonMobil and Chevron. The program's other funders include Amerada Hess Corporation, ConocoPhillips, Unocal, and Glencore International...

.

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/exp ... affer.html


What does Iran want ?

you lookin at it

Greater_Iran.gif
Greater_Iran.gif (15.71 KiB) Viewed 1436 times

that is our homeland


.
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monster_gardener
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by monster_gardener »

AzariLoveIran wrote:.

Look folks ,

Seems, where west, Europe, is weak and helpless .. in energy .. a bottleneck and key for western hopes in the future , is working at normal capacity, it transports 1 million barrels per day

The population of what they call now "Azerbaijan", in reality Iranian provinces (annexed by Russian Tzars) "Shirvan and Arran" are Iranian Shia, and, vehemently Iranian patriot .. Iran, probably, has "one million plus" Iranian Azari infiltrate in Baku, they not distinguishable of locals, meaning same as locals

So

my guess is

Iran, Armenia .. AND .. Russia , could do same as Russia did in Georgia .. meaning genuflect "Haydar Aliyev" and his Nakhchevan Mafia clan

As a starter it would rob Europe of 1 million barrel of oil a day .. but that just the start .. all talk of Turkaman gas and oil exiting through Caucasus would be into toilet

and

beauty of this

is

West is impotent doing anything

no

Nato, Turkey can't move .. because the population in Azerbaijan would be unfriendly to Nato (risking a 2nd Chechnya & Afghanistan) and Russia and Iran

This scenario seems to me more easy win, at this stage, than Persian Golf crony Amirates

Persian Golf and KSA cronies are like a rotten tomato .. look OK, but once you touch them, they done .. need a bit more time to get really ripe for picking

sign point to this scenario :D


Zionist have established a base in Baku, agitating against Iran

Mossad agent Brenda Shaffer leading the effort :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlHsjYgw1lo


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brenda_shaffer

.

Touraj Atabaki, who is a Professor of Social History at the University of Amsterdam and a Senior Research Fellow at the International Institute of Social History, critically challenged Shaffer in his review of her "Borders and Brethren: Iran and the Challenge of Azerbaijani Identity"[5]
“ With Brenda Shaffer's Borders and Brethren one would expect a contribution to our understanding of future developments in Iran as well as in the neighboring countries. Within the first two chapters, however, the reader becomes disappointed with the unbalanced and sometimes even biased political appraisal that not only dominates the author's methodology but also shapes her selective amnesia in recalling historical data." ”


Atabaki concludes his review by stating "Borders and Brethren is an excellent example of how a political agenda can dehistoricize and decontextualize history".[5]

Ken Silverstein, of Harpers Magazine, in an article titled "Academics for Hire", comments:
“ Harvard's program is led by Brenda Shaffer, who is so eager to back regimes in the region that she makes Starr look like a dissident. A 2001 brief she wrote, “U.S. Policy toward the Caspian Region: Recommendations for the Bush Administration,” commended Bush for “intensified U.S. activity in the region, and the recognition of the importance of the area to the pursuit of U.S. national interests.” Shaffer has also called on Congress to overturn Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which was passed in 1992 and bars direct aid to the Azeri government. The law has not yet been repealed, but the Bush Administration has been waiving it since 2002, as a payoff for Azeri support in the “war on terrorism.”

Harvard's Caspian Studies Program receives a lot of money from both the oil companies and from some of the governments.” I share Starr's concerns here, and since I briefly mentioned Harvard in my original story, and since several readers asked for more details, let me provide it here. As I had previously reported, the Caspian Studies Program (CSP) was launched in 1999 with a $1 million grant from the United States‒Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce (USACC) and a consortium of companies led by ExxonMobil and Chevron. The program's other funders include Amerada Hess Corporation, ConocoPhillips, Unocal, and Glencore International...

.

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/exp ... affer.html


What does Iran want ?

you lookin at it

Greater_Iran.gif

that is our homeland


.
Thank you Very Much for Your post, Azari.

This is quick & off the cuff but.............

Quite frankly, I personally really don't care about a lot of what you claim as Greater Iran as long as Iran does not cause trouble for US and friends (Israel):

Afghanistan: Trashcanistan: don't allow garbage there to end up here (911).
Pakistan: Almost a failed terrorist nuke state already: if the Indians and you can defuse that, a Nobel Peace prize may be in the offing....... Good Luck


Don't know enough about the various former soviet "stans" yet to opine: may need to study


Some of the other places though have people (not US) who IMHO probably have other ideas: and often we/US don't really have much of a say anyway (China...).

China: China wants to hold on to Tibet, Taiwan, the Uigers etc ...........Do you really want to take them on.............

Turkey: likewise: they don't want let the Kurds go despite the trouble so why will they give land to you???? They wouldn't let US/Nato just pass through.........

Northern Iraq (Kurdistan): The cheesy Kurds want their own whey :wink: way. Suspect they want some of Iran as well as Turkey...........

Armenia: Bad experiences with Muslim overlords.............. mad mullahs...............

Georgia: based on my contact with Georgians: they want their independence too...... Not overlords Soviet/Russian or otherwise including Iranian.......

Syria: Assad is your client already.....................

Notice that you wisely don't claim Israel ............

So what's the point of provoking the Jews/Zionists so much................. Might want to take a leaf from the Shah on this one......... The loud talk & Neutron Dance :wink: from your Prez and the mad mullahs screws your chances of getting the doable parts.............

Maybe these lovely ladies & dogs :wink: can point :wink: the way ............
filKJSGIhc8
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AzariLoveIran

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by AzariLoveIran »

.

monster_gardener ,

Why you think West, America, spent (and spending) one Billion dollars a day in Iraq and now in Afghanistan and and and ? ?

you really think all this to save Israel ? ?

West gives a lavender about Israel and Jews .. Europe is utterly anti Semite, so is America

who the genuflect are Israel

Why west not spending a dime in Ethiopia bringing democracy or state building ?

3/4 of Energy and many natural resources are in that space

World depends on those resources

fight is who controls those resources

If America can not convincingly demonstrate to Europe and Japan and China and and and that America is on top of things re energy resources .. things will change dramatically

.
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Alexis
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Alexis »

AzariLoveIran wrote:Seems, where west, Europe, is weak and helpless .. in energy .. a bottleneck and key for western hopes in the future , is working at normal capacity, it transports 1 million barrels per day

The population of what they call now "Azerbaijan", in reality Iranian provinces (annexed by Russian Tzars) "Shirvan and Arran" are Iranian Shia, and, vehemently Iranian patriot .. Iran, probably, has "one million plus" Iranian Azari infiltrate in Baku, they not distinguishable of locals, meaning same as locals
Short facts:
- Azeri language is part of the Turkish family, NOT the Indo-European family (like Iranian) Cultural proximity between Azeris and Iranians goes as far...
- Azerbaijan had been last part of Iran two centuries ago, and did not exhibit any desire to be annexed by Iran when it became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991
Iran, Armenia .. AND .. Russia , could do same as Russia did in Georgia .. meaning genuflect "Haydar Aliyev" and his Nakhchevan Mafia clan

As a starter it would rob Europe of 1 million barrel of oil a day .. but that just the start .. all talk of Turkaman gas and oil exiting through Caucasus would be into toilet
Azerbaijan's prime export is oil and related services. I know of no reason why Azeris would want to commit economic suicide.

As for Russia, its economy is in similar situation as Azerbaijan... I don't think Russians want to commit economic suicide, especially not for the sake of Iran :D :lol:
What does Iran want ?

you lookin at it

Greater_Iran.gif

that is our homeland
Good luck convincing Russia and China helping you getting it :lol: :D !
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Typhoon
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Typhoon »

Alexis wrote: . . .
What does Iran want ?

you lookin at it

Greater_Iran.gif

that is our homeland
Good luck convincing Russia and China helping you getting it :lol: :D !
Now that is a bit of an understatement . . . :wink:
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Typhoon »

AzariLoveIran wrote: . . .


What does Iran want ?

you lookin at it


[image of so-called Greater Iran]


that is our homeland
A useful rule of thumb in international diplomacy is any nation with active pretensions to a so-called Greater [insert name of self-delusional Nation here] should be regarded as and treated as a pariah.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
AzariLoveIran

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by AzariLoveIran »

Alexis wrote:.
AzariLoveIran wrote:.

Seems, where west, Europe, is weak and helpless .. in energy .. a bottleneck and key for western hopes in the future , is working at normal capacity, it transports 1 million barrels per day

The population of what they call now "Azerbaijan", in reality Iranian provinces (annexed by Russian Tzars) "Shirvan and Arran" are Iranian Shia, and, vehemently Iranian patriot .. Iran, probably, has "one million plus" Iranian Azari infiltrate in Baku, they not distinguishable of locals, meaning same as locals

.
Short facts:
- Azeri language is part of the Turkish family, NOT the Indo-European family (like Iranian) Cultural proximity between Azeris and Iranians goes as far...
- Azerbaijan had been last part of Iran two centuries ago, and did not exhibit any desire to be annexed by Iran when it became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991
Iran, Armenia .. AND .. Russia , could do same as Russia did in Georgia .. meaning genuflect "Haydar Aliyev" and his Nakhchevan Mafia clan

As a starter it would rob Europe of 1 million barrel of oil a day .. but that just the start .. all talk of Turkaman gas and oil exiting through Caucasus would be into toilet
Azerbaijan's prime export is oil and related services. I know of no reason why Azeris would want to commit economic suicide.

As for Russia, its economy is in similar situation as Azerbaijan... I don't think Russians want to commit economic suicide, especially not for the sake of Iran :D :lol:
What does Iran want ?

you lookin at it

Greater_Iran.gif

that is our homeland
Good luck convincing Russia and China helping you getting it :lol: :D !

.

:lol: :lol:


Alexis ,

Your facts & information are thin AND wrong, you don't know the background and realities on the ground :

- Azari language was Pahlavi-Persian .. Seljuk (Turkish tribe) occupied Azarbaijan and forced a Turkish dialect which is 1/3 Persian and 2/3 Turkish .. Turks do not understand Azari language entirely .. Azari are Aryan and same genetic stock as Kurds, Armenian and Taleshi

- Iranian provinces "Shirvan and Arran" were taken by Russian Tzars just for 100 yrs, and agreed 2B returned to Iran .. Pan-Turanist (Turkist) changed the name of "Shirvan and Arran" to Azerbaijan and trying now to usurp Arran

.

http://www.iranchamber.com/geography/ar ... baijan.php

Historically speaking, the territory in the Caucasus that lies to the north of the Aras river, was never called Azerbaijan until the year 1918. Giving it this name created difficulties in the first half of the 20th century and in the succeeding years, and these cannot be ignored. History, as well as the works of ancient geographers and Islamic writers bear witness to the fact that the land to the north of the Aras River, which is now known as Azerbaijan, was known before as Albania (Alban). Classical writers, such as Strabon and others, called this region Albania, Armenian, or Alvanak (Aghvanak), while Iranians called it Aran. Aliyov, a historian in the former Soviet Azerbaijan, in his article "Sources Relating the Ancient History of Caucasus's Albania", wrote that in the Parthian era, the eastern part of the Caucasus was called "Ardan". Greek materials referred to this place as "Albania". Barthold, the famous Soviet scholar, believed that in the Islamic era and, according to Arabic sources, this name has taken the forms of "Al-ran" or "Aran", which probably is a transformation of the ancient Parthian name "Ardan".

There is no reason to doubt that Aran was separate from Azarbaijan and that the Aras River constituted the northern border of Azarbaijan, and Aran had never been called Azerbaijan. The academician Barthold most clearly mentioned the Aras River as lying between Azarbaijan and Aran or the ancient Albania (Collected Works, Volume 7, Moscow, 1971, page 123).

Prior to the invention of the name Azerbaijan to designate Aran and Shirvan, Tzarist Russian sources recognized only one Azarbaijan, the true Azarbaijan. The first volume of the Russian Encyclopedia (pages 212 and 213), which was published in St. Petersburg some 102 years ago (in 1890), stated: "Azarbaijan, which was 'Aturpatekan' in Pahlavi and 'Azarbadekan' in Armenian, is the rich industrial northern province of Iran. It borders Iranian Kurdistan and Iraq of Adjam to the south, Turkish Kurdistan and Armenia to the west, Russian Armenia and the Southern Caucasus to the north. Its border is marked by the Aras River". Had the name Azerbaijan been used for the land to the north of the Aras, undoubtedly, this encyclopedia would have used the name "Russian Azerbaijan" just as it had used the designations "Turkish Kurdistan", "Iranian Kurdistan", "Turkish Armenia", or "Russian Armenia". It can easily be seen that only one Azarbaijan existed and that was the Iranian Azarbaijan.

Following the Bolshevik Revolution and the ensuing turmoil in the Russian empire, Turkish politicians of the time became intent on establishing a puppet state in the Caucasus. In 1911, a party named "Mossavat" (Equality) was founded in Baku, which was supported by the Ottoman Turks. It held a joint congress with Turkey's Party of Federalists in 1917. In this congress, the two parties united and called themselves the "Democratic Party of Turkish Mossavat Federalists". Their goal was to unite Turkish-speaking people under the umbrella of Turkey.

The Mossavatis set up a government on 27 May 1918, and called the area the "Azerbaijan Republic". Their capital initially was Gandjeh, but after the occupation of Baku by the Turkish army under the command of Noori Pasha on 15 September 1918, the capital was transferred to Baku and their government was consolidated through the support of the Turkish army. They ruled Aran and Shirvan, calling these areas collectively as the Azerbaijan Republic for two years. This situation continued until 28 April 1920, at which date the Bolsheviks attacked Baku and declared the area as a Soviet republic. The Soviets persisted in using the invented name, calling this territory the "Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan".

Barthold disclosed the reason for choosing to apply such a name. In page 782 of the second volume of his Collected Works, he noted: "The name 'Azerbaijan' was adopted because it was presumed that through the establishment of the Azerbaijan Republic, the Iranian Azarbaijan and the Azerbaijan Republic will eventually become one." As can be seen, the name 'Azerbaijan' was used with a specific goal that became manifest at a later period. Somewhere else in this same volume, Barthold wrote: "Wherever and whenever a name should be required with which one can refer to the whole region of the Azerbaijan Republic, one can use Aran" (page 703).

From the very beginning, the use of the name "Azerbaijan" for Aran met with the protests of Iranian patriots, including Sheik Mohammad Khiabani and his comrades. But since this naming had been carried out, the Democrats siding with Khiabani decided to change the name of Iran's Azarbaijan to "Azadistan" (land of freedom). This fact was clearly stated in Kasravi's book titled "The Unknown Kings", where he expressed surprise at the use of the name Azerbaijan to refer to Aran, writing: "Why are our Arani brothers destroying their national history and their past at the onset of their national life? This itself is an enormous loss and there is no other example of such a strange deed in history" (second printing, page 265).

After foreign forces entered Iran in Shahrivar 1320 (August 1941), under the tutelage of the Red Army, a party was established in Tabriz called "The Party of Azerbaijan". It was mostly run by immigrants from the Caucasus and the executors of Soviet policy, especially the cronies of Mir-Dja'far Bagherov, the secretary of the central committee of the Communist Party of the Caucasus. At first, the leaders of this party clandestinely advocated the separation of Azarbaijan (from Iran). The excuse they used to carry out their aims was the prevalent use of the Turkish language in this area, which was actually forced upon the people of this region centuries ago, again through the immigration of Turks.

Kasravi wrote: "Their secret aim was separation from Iran" (Nameh-e Parcham, 2 June 1943). Three and a half years later, on 4 September 1945, Caucasian agents created another party named the "Democratic Party of Azerbaijan", which ostensibly advocated adherence to the Constitution and the establishment of provincial and state councils. Its real goal, however, was unification with the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan. The instigators of this idea for unification invented the names of "South and North Azerbaijan", whereas the land to the north of the Aras River had another name as mentioned earlier.

The leaders of the Democratic Party, who purportedly advocated the establishment of provincial and state councils, openly spoke about their secret aims following their escape from Iran and after finding refuge on the other side of the Aras. A message printed in the 'Azerbaijan' newspaper, which was the official organ of the Democratic Party, explicitly stated: "The people of South Azerbaijan, which is an indivisible part of North Azerbaijan, like all the peoples of the world, have their hopes fixed on the great people and the state of the Soviet Union" ('Azerbaijan' newspaper, no. 213, Baku, 23 December 1950). In another telegram to Mir-Dja'far Bagherov, the chairman of the Communist Party of the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan, these officials wrote: "Three whole years have passed since the establishment of the Azerbaijan Democratic Party that leads the struggle toward national liberation and the emancipation of the southern part of our motherland Azerbaijan, which has been suffering in the black hands of Persian chauvinists" ('Azerbaijan' newspaper, no. 81, Baku, 8 September 1948).

Following these actions, the terms "North Azerbaijan" and "South Azerbaijan" were skillfully manipulated into books and into translations from Turkish and Russian in order to inculcate this idea into the minds of readers. Some, knowingly or unknowingly, aided in propagating this idea. For instance, these unreasonable terms were included in history and geography textbooks and some of our translators repeated them. This practice has progressed to such an extent that a number of our local newspapers, without paying the least attention and consideration, have used these wrong and damaging terms, even in their recent issues, despite the fact that it is very easy to refute this be aware of the reality.

The author of the book "Corners of Iranian History" wrote: "The unification of North Azerbaijan with Russia played a progressive role and the only government that helped the people of the Caucasus against Iran and the Ottomans was Russia" (see pages 44, 192, 224). Did this reflect the real situation? How then can one explain the resistance of the people of that land in the past and the uprisings of Muslims, including the one led by Sheik Shamel in Daghestan, as well as the present reaction of the Caucasian and Central Asian people, and the Islamic movements in these republics? In many pages of this book, we find the terms North and South Azerbaijan.

These propagandists have been trying to pretend that Azerbaijan is a divided land and that it should be united someday. During the previous years, unification was to be realized with Soviet power. Today, the propaganda has taken another form, with American propagandists having involved Turkey and introduced it as a model. They use the wrong term "Azeri" in referring to the people and the land of Aran. The people of Aran should be called "Arani" as "Azeri" is a term that should be used only for the people of Azarbaijan. There is no link between the title "Azeri" and the people of Aran. And neither is "Azeri" the language of the people of Azarbaijan nor that of Aran. "Azeri" is one of the Iranian dialects, such as Kurdish, Lurish, Gillish, Mazandarani, Balouchi, Bakhtiari, and others. There is no relation between the old Azeri language and Turkish. There still exist in Azarbaijan groups of people living in the mountains speaking the Azeri dialect. The language spoken by the people of Aran is not Azeri nor is it ancient Arani. Rather, it is one of the Turkish dialects that has been mixed with local languages.

In the case of Azarbaijan and Aran, there are some who try to call Aran "Azerbaijan". This is a gross mistake. While the rulers of Azarbaijan ruled over Aran during certain epochs, Azarbaijan is a separate entity from Aran. At times, the rulers of Tabaristan ruled over Gilan and those of Gilan, such as the Buyids, ruled over Tabaristan; yet, Tabaristan and Gilan were separate and are considered separate lands now, even though they are adjacent. No one has ever denied the fact that Aran was under the rule of Iran and belonged to it, but taking the two as the same and using the damaging and wrong term of "North Azerbaijan" is a wrong approach.

I do not understand why some refer only to what they are interested in and ignore most of the well-known writings. Bal'ami's work has long been revered as a Persian work, but, he was a translator of the Tarikh-e Tabari. The point that was noted in the Tarikh-e Bal'ami does not exist in the Tarikh-e Tabari (see Tarikh-e Tabari, Volume 5, page 1979, translated by Abolghassem Payandeh). But one should know that on geographical matters, the views of geographers are preferred. I do not wish to mention all such sources, but to clarify the situation of Azarbaijan and Aran, in the 10th and 11th century, which happens to be the time of Bal'ami, one can see the works of Ibn-e Khordad-beh who was the head of the 'Barid' (postal service) of Djebal (Media), and of Ibn-e Rosteh and many others, provided one is really seeking the truth and is not trying to verify one's own wishes and illusions.

Fanaticism is a sign of stupidity. Some accuse me of viewing the Mossavatis through the eyes of the Bolsheviks. The future will make everything clear and those who seek to deceive will be exposed to the nation. The final judgment will be made by men of reason, not by some ignorant fanatics.

I have not written anything regarding my beloved native land, Gilan; yet, I have dedicated a large part of my life to the study of Azarbaijan. This shows how much affection I feel for the people of Azarbaijan. When during my diaspora I was living in the mouth of the dragon, I did not ignore this sacred duty. My affection for the people of Azarbaijan cost me dearly during my migration. I had to suffer many deprivations. The separatists made my life and that of my family very difficult. I endured all these hardships for the sake of my country, of which Azarbaijan is a part.

Now that an independent republic has been established in the land of Aran, it would have been appropriate if it would stop abusing the name of Azarbaijan and would use its true historical name. Currently, Iran's enemies are unfortunately exploiting the existence of this misnomer by propagating false and misleading information. One example is Radio Liberty, which is run from Munich. It carries out its activities from a budget it receives from the US Congress and its broadcasts show the sinister goals that it seeks against the integrity of our country. You can also find similar things in the propaganda of some other countries. It is bizarre that a number of neighboring republics deviate from being sincere and honest, imagining the Iranian people as being ignorant of the facts. This is not so, as we do see and consider everything.

The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has proudly carried out its religious and neighborly duties toward the newly independent states bordering it. Even in the initial moments when its neighbors regained their sovereignty, Iran ignored the issue of name and some of their unjust behaviors, hoping that with the passage of time, its brothers and neighbors will pay due consideration and take notice of the facts. The Islamic Republic of Iran could make its recognition of the newly independent republics subject to certain conditions; however, in observing its religious and neighborly obligations, it did not choose to do so in order to enable the emerging states to achieve stability. The steps taken by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran to promote economic cooperation proves this fact. Now it is appropriate for our Aranian brothers to take these factors into consideration and choose a path that will lead to strengthening the ties of friendship.

.

- When Sowjetunion fell, Heydar Aliyev, deputy chairman of Azerbaijani KGB, Sowjet Major-General (In 1969, Aliyev was appointed by Leonid Brezhnev to the post of First Secretary of the Central Committee of Azerbaijan Communist Party), father of present Western crony Ilham Aliyev.

Azerbaijan people want to join Iran since long long time they heart of Persian Caucasus family of Persian nations, they one of us.

Look Alexi,

What counts is what the people on the ground want .. and .. that is the strength of Iran

people on the ground do not want Western cronies, they want back to their root .. Iran

that is Iranian strength .. not Iran but the people themselves will do the heavy lifting

You see now what is happening in Bahrain ?

Bahrain and Hung Kong were leased to Brits for 99 yrs, by Iran and China

At the end of 99 yrs, Hung Kong was returned

not so Bahrain

and Arran was 2B returned to Iran too

well

Alexi

now Bahraini want come back home .. Iran just watching, doin nothing .. the people will not let go

well

Re Russia :

Russia would rather have Iran as southern neighbor than CIA & Mossad

So

Alexi, please read the quote above to have a deep knowledge of Caucasus

and , relaaaax


BTW .. just FYI : The Ossetians (Ossetic: ирæттæ, irættæ) are an Iranic ethnic group of the Caucasus Mountains


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Last edited by AzariLoveIran on Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Odin!
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Odin! »

"The Greater WestAsia Coprosperity Sphere" is such a fricative frolic, one feels brainy and witty just managing the syllables, much less the lighthearted metaphors!


:roll:
User avatar
Typhoon
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Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Typhoon »

Odin! wrote:"The Greater WestAsia Coprosperity Sphere" is such a fricative frolic, one feels brainy and witty just managing the syllables, much less the lighthearted metaphors!

:roll:
Very good.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
Ibrahim
Posts: 6524
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 2:06 am

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Ibrahim »

Azari wrote:Your facts & information are thin AND wrong, you don't know the background and realities on the ground :

- Azari language was Pahlavi-Persian .. Seljuk (Turkish tribe) occupied Azarbaijan and forced a Turkish dialect which is 1/3 Persian and 2/3 Turkish .. Turks do not understand Azari language entirely .. Azari are Aryan and same genetic stock as Kurds, Armenian and Taleshi

Nobody cares about this garbage. Half of the world's population from Seattle to Bombay is "Aryan" and people in England, America, Canada, and Australia all speak English but have NO desire to form the Greater Aryan Anglo-Sphere. Your wikipedia-level history lecture does not provide a single shred of evidence to support this "Greater Iran" fantasy.
AzariLoveIran

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by AzariLoveIran »

Ibrahim wrote:
Azari wrote:Your facts & information are thin AND wrong, you don't know the background and realities on the ground :

- Azari language was Pahlavi-Persian .. Seljuk (Turkish tribe) occupied Azarbaijan and forced a Turkish dialect which is 1/3 Persian and 2/3 Turkish .. Turks do not understand Azari language entirely .. Azari are Aryan and same genetic stock as Kurds, Armenian and Taleshi

.

Nobody cares about this garbage. Half of the world's population from Seattle to Bombay is "Aryan" and people in England, America, Canada, and Australia all speak English but have NO desire to form the Greater Aryan Anglo-Sphere. Your wikipedia-level history lecture does not provide a single shred of evidence to support this "Greater Iran" fantasy.

.
Ibrahim wrote:.

But as I point out some of the time when Azari is on his Greater Iran horse, other people are not interested in trying to recreate some historical culture or empire. There is just no popular support for any of this, and to claim there is is a blatant falsehood.

.

Look Ibrahim

You misunderstand "Greater Iran"

"Greater Iran" is a "cultural" , "Civilization" , common interest community .. similar but much more profound and deeper union than "European Union" .. it is not an empire .. this a renaissance of civilization and not resurrection of empire

What has Portugal in common with Germany or Holland .. nothing .. Do Portuguese live under German rule ? NO .. but they, practically, one block

Iranian nations that you see in that "Greater Iran" map have 100 times more close connection with Persia than Portugal has with Germany, let alone Greece to Britain

so

relaaax , and take interest of ME in heart .. stop towing colonial line .. once push comes to shove, you one of us and not one of them

Iran and Turkey joined forces would be unstoppable .. Is Sarko Turkish friend ? hardly .. but Iran a real friend of Turkey


BTW , here an interesting chart : Iranian Languages

Iranian languages.jpg
Iranian languages.jpg (242.68 KiB) Viewed 1355 times

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Ibrahim
Posts: 6524
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 2:06 am

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Ibrahim »

This is all ethnography. It's an obsolete way of looking at the world. The real interest of nations surrounding Iran is for Iran to shed its current regime and form a more modern political culture than can cooperate with existing neighboring nation-states.

But they aren't going to form an empire, a state, or even an E.U. style bloc.
AzariLoveIran

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by AzariLoveIran »

Ibrahim wrote:.

This is all ethnography. It's an obsolete way of looking at the world. The real interest of nations surrounding Iran is for Iran to shed its current regime and form a more modern political culture than can cooperate with existing neighboring nation-states.

But they aren't going to form an empire, a state, or even an E.U. style bloc.

.
All nation around Iran, maybe except Turkey, all .. they too weak to withstand the colonial beasts

They either `involuntary` subservient or ruled by a brutal crony

all

Does Alieve in Baku represent the people .. does (ex KGB officer) Nazarbaev represent Kazakhstan people .. or Bahrain shithead represent Bahraini people

NO

Only real representative leaders are in Iran and Turkey .. nobody else in that space represent their people .. all western cronies doing treason on their own people

You keep saying `shed its current regime and form a more modern political culture`

well

Iranian government is not a regime .. if it was a regime, with all the hardship west inflicting on Iran the people would have got rid of it .. overwhelming majority of Iranians, the poor, want these system, they more legit than most rulers of the west


Asia Times

.
The Iranian public

The dramatic popular protests following the disputed 2009 elections that saw President Mahmud Ahmadinejad re-elected and the ongoing events in the Middle East have caused some to see Iran on the verge of a "Persian Spring" - a sweeping movement to oust the regime and move toward representative government.

Discontent among the urban middle classes is substantial, but pious rural dwellers and the urban working class constitute a larger portion of the public by far whose significance is minimized by outside observers. They tend to support the regime and are more likely to blame foreign powers for their country's ills and to oppose outside interference. Religion, nationalism and suspicion of outside forces go hand in hand, as rulers and historians have known for centuries.

The effectiveness of external threats in channeling urban middle-class discontent into meaningful action is dubious. It is perfectly consistent for the middle classes to yearn for Western-style government and yet oppose Western meddling. Iranians do not see Anglo-Russian occupations during the world wars and continuous interference as irrelevant historical details, nor are the more recent assassinations and bombings. They are all of a piece of their long national travails and fighting them is an almost reflexive part of their identity.

The urban middle-classes do not see Iran's nuclear program as aimed at destroying Israel or having any offensive intent or usefulness. It is a deterrent to foreign invasion such as the Iraq War that killed 800,000 Iranians, and also a source of national pride, much as the French nuclear program was in the aftermath of colonial losses in Indochina and Africa.


Historically, foreign danger has led to popular support for governments, even unpopular ones. Americans will recognize this from Pearl Harbor when the Japanese attack rallied the country, even theretofore isolationist and anti-Roosevelt elements. More recently, the September 11 attacks on the US had the same centripetal effect.
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you just repeat and repeat `regime` .. it ain`t so Ibrahim, it ain`t so


`modern political culture`

you mean the mad mullahs are not modern

Iranian political structure is evolving, evolving by Iranian themselves .. presidential system might be replaced by parliamentary system, prime minister

Iran will built the `New Middle East` , with or without Turkey .. up to you to join or not


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Ibrahim
Posts: 6524
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 2:06 am

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by Ibrahim »

AzariLoveIran wrote:up to you to join or not
I'm pretty comfortable predicting that Canada will not being joining Greater Iran.
AzariLoveIran

Re: The war ahead .. and what it could mean

Post by AzariLoveIran »

Ibrahim wrote:.
AzariLoveIran wrote:.

up to you to join or not
I'm pretty comfortable predicting that Canada will not being joining Greater Iran.

.
true

Canada will be absorbed by US

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