COVID-19 and Other Pandemics | Anarchy in the USA

This too shall pass.
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 12593
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Doc »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:
Nonc Hilaire wrote: Free
It's never free.
universal
It's never universal.
healthcare sounds like a good idea right now.
It's never a good idea, and fortunately will never happen in the US thanks to obamacare.
The Dallas patient ran up a $1/2M bill before he died. I think the US classification of healthcare as an industry needs reevaluation.
healthcare is still an industry after it becomes "free and universal".
We are spending billions for beancounters who primarily work to prevent sick people from getting treatment.
It gets worse when you add the government. obama beancounted 3/4 of a trillion dollars out of "free universal" medicare, which will lead to the early deaths of millions.
Do you go for Kincannon's Republican solution?
Kincannon is a nut case
A number of media outlets detailed a range of inflammatory messages he posted to his Twitter account[11][12] in 2013, which include mocking Florida shooting victim Trayvon Martin[13] and saying that transgender people should be placed in a concentration-style camp.[2][14][15] He also posted to his Twitter account that it's a shame Michael Prysner, an Iraq war veteran turned anti-war organizer, "didn't come home in a body bag."[16] His Twitter account was suspended in late 2013.[11][17] In early 2014, he created a new Twitter account named "Todd__Kincannon", on which he allegedly made sexist and homophobic statements, many referencing Texas gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis in defamatory ways.[18][19][20] The traditionalist conservative author Rod Dreher highlighted tweets in which Kincannon, identifying himself as a Southern Baptist, labeled Dreher (who is Eastern Orthodox) a "papist" and compared infant baptism to Chinese water torture. [21] He also received backlash for boasting to the father of Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl that he would attempt to convince the attorney general to pursue capital punishment for his son.[22] In September, 2014, Kincannon tweeted that football player Ray Rice was justified in beating his fiancé.[23] In October of the same year, Kincannon posted a series of tweets advocating summary execution for anyone contracting the Ebola virus, and blaming "the people of Africa" for its spread: "They could stop eating each other and learn calculus at any time".[24]
Image
$500k and counting for one patient. How much will it cost when an ER is compromised? A hospital? Healthcare won't be much of an industry then.

There is a reason the US has free healthcare for TB patients. At first we had to build free hospitals specifically for TB; now free outpatient care is sufficient. Free healthcare is a very good idea for highly contagious diseases.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
User avatar
Nonc Hilaire
Posts: 6204
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2011 1:28 am

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

I guess its every man for himself. $1,299 with no free AmazonPrime shipping.

Image

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00NLY ... NMRFSD346H
“Christ has no body now but yours. Yours are the eyes through which he looks with compassion on this world. Yours are the feet with which he walks among His people to do good. Yours are the hands through which he blesses His creation.”

Teresa of Ávila
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 12593
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Doc »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:I guess its every man for himself. $1,299 with no free AmazonPrime shipping.

Image

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00NLY ... NMRFSD346H

Supposedly you can buy this on Ebay for $54.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
User avatar
Typhoon
Posts: 27404
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm
Location: 関西

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Typhoon »

I don't why everyone is so worried.

We're already dead from overpopulation, resource depletion, the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown, AIDS, SARS, the Gulf oil spill, AGW, the Fukushima nuclear incident, MERS, etc., etc., etc.

This is the afterlife :wink:
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
User avatar
Nonc Hilaire
Posts: 6204
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2011 1:28 am

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Typhoon wrote:I don't what everyone is so worried.

We're already dead from overpopulation, resource depletion, the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown, AIDS, SARS, the Gulf oil spill, AGW, the Fukushima nuclear incident, MERS, etc., etc., etc.

This is the afterlife :wink:
Of course you are relaxed, you have a hurricane coming. Lucky guy ;)
“Christ has no body now but yours. Yours are the eyes through which he looks with compassion on this world. Yours are the feet with which he walks among His people to do good. Yours are the hands through which he blesses His creation.”

Teresa of Ávila
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 12593
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Doc »

Typhoon wrote:I don't what everyone is so worried.

We're already dead from overpopulation, resource depletion, the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown, AIDS, SARS, the Gulf oil spill, AGW, the Fukushima nuclear incident, MERS, etc., etc., etc.

This is the afterlife :wink:

You forgot to mention the unexplained plane crash that left us stranded on a seemingly deserted unknown Island in the middle of no where.

Hmmm Actually that sounds like a very good place to be.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
User avatar
Typhoon
Posts: 27404
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm
Location: 関西

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Typhoon »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:
Typhoon wrote:I don't what everyone is so worried.

We're already dead from overpopulation, resource depletion, the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown, AIDS, SARS, the Gulf oil spill, AGW, the Fukushima nuclear incident, MERS, etc., etc., etc.

This is the afterlife :wink:
Of course you are relaxed, you have a hurricane coming. Lucky guy ;)
The coming weekend looks like it might be a bit wet :wink:

Average about 11 typhoons per year within 300km of the coast.

A little Cat 5 slap and tickle:

Image

[Typhoon Vonfong | The central eye has a diameter of about 50km]
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
Mr. Perfect
Posts: 16973
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Nonc Hilaire wrote: Do you go for Kincannon's Republican solution?
I'm into epidemiologists. Seen any in the media?
$500k and counting for one patient. How much will it cost when an ER is compromised? A hospital? Healthcare won't be much of an industry then.
I'm immune to your fear politics.
There is a reason the US has free healthcare for TB patients. At first we had to build free hospitals specifically for TB; now free outpatient care is sufficient. Free healthcare is a very good idea for highly contagious diseases.
It's not free NH. You aren't telling the truth.
Censorship isn't necessary
Simple Minded

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Simple Minded »

Typhoon wrote:I don't what everyone is so worried.

We're already dead from overpopulation, resource depletion, the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown, AIDS, SARS, the Gulf oil spill, AGW, the Fukushima nuclear incident, MERS, etc., etc., etc.

This is the afterlife :wink:
:lol: :lol:

That would explain why you don't find the use of the word "oriental" offensive... ;)

I was killed by either DDT or a giant asteroid or a house cat that didn't want me to give it a bath....... my memory is either fuzzy or has been replaced by imagination.

But I do seem to enjoy my own private Hell more than some enjoy their version of Heaven.

(After)life is good! :D :D
Last edited by Simple Minded on Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
Simple Minded

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Simple Minded »

Mr. Perfect wrote: I'm immune to your fear politics.
:lol: :lol: Great Pun Mr. P!!

How much did the shot cost?
User avatar
Typhoon
Posts: 27404
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm
Location: 関西

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Typhoon »

Doc wrote:
Nonc Hilaire wrote:I guess its every man for himself. $1,299 with no free AmazonPrime shipping.

Image

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00NLY ... NMRFSD346H
Supposedly you can buy this on Ebay for $54.
Image

[Hazmat suit manufacturer]
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 12593
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Doc »

Typhoon wrote:
Doc wrote:
Nonc Hilaire wrote:I guess its every man for himself. $1,299 with no free AmazonPrime shipping.

Image

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00NLY ... NMRFSD346H
Supposedly you can buy this on Ebay for $54.
Image

[Hazmat suit manufacturer]
\


OK $54 on ebay for the hazmat suit and $54 per share for Lake.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 12593
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: Ebola by the numbers

Post by Doc »

"70 70 60" the numbers needed to prevent Ebola from spreading worldwide
To bring the epidemic under control, officials should ensure that at least 70 percent of Ebola-victim burials are conducted safely, and that at least 70 percent of infected people are in treatment, within 60 days, he said.
750 3000 1500 The number of doctors nurses and hygienists needed in Sierra Leone alone
More numbers came from Ernest Bai Koroma, president of Sierra Leone: The country desperately needs 750 doctors, 3,000 nurses, 1,500 hygienists, counselors and nutritionists.
45,000 t0 50000 The number of people who will be infected in one month
Ebolaonemonth.png
Ebolaonemonth.png (85.61 KiB) Viewed 8070 times
100,000 The number of people with Ebola in two months
Ebolatwomonths.png
Ebolatwomonths.png (177.46 KiB) Viewed 8070 times
70 the percentage of those that die from this strain of Ebola
Seventy percent of the people [who become infected] are definitely dying from this disease, and it is accelerating in almost all settings,”
The 50% number that is being widely used is simply the number of people that have caught the disease and died so far. Since many have but have not died yet, the figure is very misleading. It is more like the percentage of reduction of the population of the human race if this spreads world wide


In three months 200,000 four months 400,000; five months 800,000; six months 1 million 600,000; 7 months 3 million 200,000; 8 months 6.4 million 9 months 12.4 million 10 months 24.8 million 11 months 49.6 million 12 months 100.2 million ... IN seventeen months it will be 6 billion.


Not saying this is going to happen but just to wake some folks up about how extremely serious this is.---> The 3000 US troops going to West Africa can handle an estimated one thousand seven hundred patients.
The U.S. military is building 17 treatment centers that can hold 100 people each, but the top military commander in Africa said Tuesday that they won’t be ready until mid-November. Liberia and Sierra Leone have a particularly keen need for more hospital beds. The two countries currently have 924 beds between them, but they need 4,078, according to the WHO.
The way things are going RIGHT NOW in less than one and one half years 50% of the world's population is going to be dead.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/ ... story.html

The ominous math of the Ebola epidemic

Tom Frieden, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, urged world leaders to work quickly to combat the spread of the Ebola virus during a meeting on Thursday morning. (AP)

By Joel Achenbach, Lena H. Sun and Brady Dennis October 9 at 2:15 PM 

When the experts describe the Ebola disaster, they do so with numbers. The statistics include not just the obvious ones, such as caseloads, deaths and the rate of infection, but also the ones that describe the speed of the global response.

Right now, the math still favors the virus.

Global health officials are looking closely at the “reproduction number,” which estimates how many people, on average, will catch the virus from each person stricken with Ebola. The epidemic will begin to decline when that number falls below one. A recent analysis estimated the number at 1.5 to 2.

The number of Ebola cases in West Africa has been doubling about every three weeks. There is little evidence so far that the epidemic is losing momentum.

“The speed at which things are moving on the ground, it’s hard for people to get their minds around. People don’t understand the concept of exponential growth,” said Tom Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Exponential growth in the context of three weeks means: ‘If I know that X needs to be done, and I work my butt off and get it done in three weeks, it’s now half as good as it needs to be.’ ”


To halt the spread of Ebola, many more people need to be isolated in treatment centers according to CDC models. View Graphic 

Frieden warned Thursday that without immediate, concerted, bold action, the Ebola virus could become a global calamity on the scale of HIV. He spoke at a gathering of global health officials and government leaders at the World Bank headquarters in Washington. The president of Guinea was at the table, and the presidents of Liberia and Sierra Leone joined by video link. Amid much bureaucratic talk and table-thumping was an emerging theme: The virus is still outpacing the efforts to contain it.

“The situation is worse than it was 12 days ago. It’s entrenched in the capitals. Seventy percent of the people [who become infected] are definitely dying from this disease, and it is accelerating in almost all settings,” Bruce Aylward, assistant director general of the World Health Organization, told the group.

Aylward had come from West Africa only hours earlier. He offered three numbers: 70, 70 and 60. To bring the epidemic under control, officials should ensure that at least 70 percent of Ebola-victim burials are conducted safely, and that at least 70 percent of infected people are in treatment, within 60 days, he said.

More numbers came from Ernest Bai Koroma, president of Sierra Leone: The country desperately needs 750 doctors, 3,000 nurses, 1,500 hygienists, counselors and nutritionists.

The numbers in this crisis are notoriously squishy, however. Epidemiological data is sketchy at best. No one really knows exactly how big the epidemic is, in part because there are areas in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea where disease detectives cannot venture because of safety concerns.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
Mr. Perfect
Posts: 16973
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Simple Minded wrote: :lol: :lol: Great Pun Mr. P!!

How much did the shot cost?
Puns are not my forte, at all, but every once in awhile.

I honestly thought no one would catch it.
Censorship isn't necessary
User avatar
Typhoon
Posts: 27404
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm
Location: 関西

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Typhoon »

Economist | The Ebola Alarmists
Stoking panic will not help America fight Ebola
Image
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 12593
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Doc »

Typhoon wrote:Economist | The Ebola Alarmists
Stoking panic will not help America fight Ebola
However doing nothing will be incredibly worse.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
Simple Minded

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Simple Minded »

Typhoon wrote:Economist | The Ebola Alarmists
Stoking panic will not help America fight Ebola
Image
Ebola, Racism, War on Women/Capitalism/socialism/Wealth Inequality, AGW..........

"But _______ is a fresh new face!n He/She will save us!"

Doomer Porn sells! Celebrities needs media exposure to survive.

I don't expect Doomer Porn to not be lucrative until basic Human Psychology changes.
Simple Minded

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Simple Minded »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:I guess its every man for himself. $1,299 with no free AmazonPrime shipping.

Image

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00NLY ... NMRFSD346H
Are these available with vertical stripes? That would have a slimming effect right?

If I were the manufacturer, I would be doing a variety of Halloween costume themed HazMat suits, Superhero outfits, and also limited editions with quotes from the Bible or Koran, political slogans.....
User avatar
Typhoon
Posts: 27404
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:42 pm
Location: 関西

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Typhoon »

Doc wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Economist | The Ebola Alarmists
Stoking panic will not help America fight Ebola
However doing nothing will be incredibly worse.
In the affected parts of Africa.
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 12593
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Doc »

Typhoon wrote:
Doc wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Economist | The Ebola Alarmists
Stoking panic will not help America fight Ebola
However doing nothing will be incredibly worse.
In th affected parts of Africa.
I am extremely dubious about it not spreading
Frieden (Head of the CDC) warned Thursday that without immediate, concerted, bold action, the Ebola virus could become a global calamity on the scale of HIV. He spoke at a gathering of global health officials and government leaders at the World Bank headquarters in Washington. The president of Guinea was at the table, and the presidents of Liberia and Sierra Leone joined by video link. Amid much bureaucratic talk and table-thumping was an emerging theme: The virus is still outpacing the efforts to contain it.

“The situation is worse than it was 12 days ago. It’s entrenched in the capitals. Seventy percent of the people [who become infected] are definitely dying from this disease, and it is accelerating in almost all settings,” Bruce Aylward, assistant director general of the World Health Organization, told the group.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/world ... .html?_r=0

Health Officials Admit (to) ‘Defeat’ by Ebola in Sierra Leone


By ADAM NOSSITEROCT. 10, 2014

Health Organizations Will Help Treat Ebola Victims at Home


FREETOWN, Sierra Leone — Acknowledging a major “defeat” in the fight against Ebola, international health officials battling the epidemic in Sierra Leone approved plans on Friday to help families tend to patients at home, recognizing that they are overwhelmed and have little chance of getting enough treatment beds in place quickly to meet the surging need.

The decision signifies a significant shift in the struggle against the rampaging disease. Officials said they would begin distributing painkillers, rehydrating solution and gloves to hundreds of Ebola-afflicted households in Sierra Leone, contending that the aid arriving here was not fast or extensive enough to keep up with an outbreak that doubles in size every month or so.

“It’s basically admitting defeat,” said Dr. Peter H. Kilmarx, the leader of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s team in Sierra Leone, adding that it was “now national policy that we should take care of these people at home.”

Global Response to Ebola Highlights Challenges in Delivering AidOCT. 10, 2014

Judge Clay Jenkins of Dallas County visited the apartment where Thomas Eric Duncan had been staying before his Ebola was diagnosed.

Dallas Official Confronts City’s Fear of Ebola in PersonOCT. 10, 2014

Thomas Duncan in 2011.

Ebola Patient Sent Home Despite Fever, Records ShowOCT. 10, 2014

A Doctors Without Borders worker advising people in Daru, Sierra Leone, on the devastating outbreak of the Ebola virus there.

Doctors Without Borders Evolves as It Forms the Vanguard in Ebola Fight OCT. 10, 2014

“For the clinicians it’s admitting failure, but we are responding to the need,” Dr. Kilmarx said. “There are hundreds of people with Ebola that we are not able to bring into a facility.”

The effort to prop up a family’s attempts to care for ailing relatives at home does not mean that officials have abandoned plans to increase the number of beds in hospitals and clinics. But before the beds can be added and doctors can be trained, experts warn, the epidemic will continue to grow.

C.D.C. officials acknowledged that the risks of dying from the disease and passing it to loved ones at home were serious under the new policy — “You push some Tylenol to them, and back away,” Dr. Kilmarx said, describing its obvious limits.

But many patients with Ebola are already dying slowly at home, untreated and with no place to go. There are 304 beds for Ebola patients in Sierra Leone now, but 1,148 are needed, the World Health Organization reported this week. So officials here said there was little choice but to try the new approach as well.

“For the first time, the nation is accepting the possibility of home care, out of necessity,” said Jonathan Mermin, another C.D.C. official and physician here. “It is a policy out of necessity.”

Faced with similar circumstances in neighboring Liberia, where even more people are dying from the disease, the American government said last month that it would ship 400,000 kits with gloves and disinfectant.

“The home kits are no substitute for getting people” to a treatment facility, said Sheldon Yett, the Unicef director for Liberia. “But the idea is to ensure that if somebody has to take care of somebody at home, they’re able to do so.”

More than 4,000 people have died from the outbreak in West Africa, but the United Nations funding appeal remains woefully short, with countries pledging only one-fourth of the $1 billion that the world body says it needs to contain the disease, the United Nations deputy secretary general, Jan Eliasson, told the General Assembly on Friday.

Britain has pledged to get an additional 400 beds into urban areas around Sierra Leone by sometime next month. More rudimentary holding centers for patients awaiting space in hospitals are planned by the government here. And promises of international aid have increased substantially since the outbreak was first identified in neighboring Guinea in March.

But on Friday, Sory Sesay, 2, lay face down on a bench at his home, an arm dangling, his eyes open, listless and apathetic.

What remained of his family was sitting immobilized on the front porch with him at their house in Waterloo, just outside Freetown, Sierra Leone’s capital. All of them were sick: his father, who had already lost his wife and daughter; his 11 year-old brother; and a 16-year-old neighbor, whose mother had already died.

They had no painkillers, no rehydrating solution, and only a sack of rice to eat.

“The government has not yet come in to assist us,” said Sheka Dumbuya, the local community leader. “Mr. Sesay is actually traumatized. We took them the day before yesterday to the health center, but there is no space for them.”
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
User avatar
Nonc Hilaire
Posts: 6204
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2011 1:28 am

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

I understand people being scared about ebola. What I don't understand is why the U.S. Public Health Service is so completely absent. This is the quasi-military service whose mission is to be the first responders to exactly this type of threat.

http://www.usphs.gov/aboutus/history.aspx
“Christ has no body now but yours. Yours are the eyes through which he looks with compassion on this world. Yours are the feet with which he walks among His people to do good. Yours are the hands through which he blesses His creation.”

Teresa of Ávila
User avatar
kmich
Posts: 1087
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:46 am

Re: Ebola fears

Post by kmich »

Typhoon wrote:
Doc wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Economist | The Ebola Alarmists
Stoking panic will not help America fight Ebola
However doing nothing will be incredibly worse.
In the affected parts of Africa.
You are very right. The way to control any epidemic is to manage it at its source, in this case, the affected areas of West Africa. Significant resources and personnel need to be brought in to manage these situations in these locations now. These impoverished nations simply do not have the healthcare and governmental infrastructure to manage such a challenge.

If the developed nations of the world fail to address this issue at its source and Ebola continues to spread and grow in Africa, we may be facing a far greater potential for wider infection in the months ahead and significantly increased chances for Ebola infections appearing around the world. The idea that this is a problem isolated to Africa will give a false sense of security. The more people that are infected there, the increased risks of infections spreading everywhere else…

In managing the situation, fear is more than simply not helpful, it is dangerous, and will undermine any attempt to establish disease containment and management systems. Fearful people cease to be rational in these situations and do stupid stuff. Having worked in emergency medicine for many years, I know never to be provoked by the fear and anxiety of others into taking action or I will live to regret it. Cool, informed heads are needed in these situations to inspire confidence that will allow for effective efforts to proceed.

There will always be the Chicken Littles in these situations. I am sure there will be money to be made for entrepreneurs with the sale of Hazmat suits. It is best for policy makers to keep an eye on the ball and the facts and apply the vast amount of knowledge and experience available on managing infectious disease epidemics and transmissions. Allowing fear to guide policy is dangerous.
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 12593
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Doc »

kmich wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Doc wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Economist | The Ebola Alarmists
Stoking panic will not help America fight Ebola
However doing nothing will be incredibly worse.
In the affected parts of Africa.
You are very right. The way to control any epidemic is to manage it at its source, in this case, the affected areas of West Africa. Significant resources and personnel need to be brought in to manage these situations in these locations now. These impoverished nations simply do not have the healthcare and governmental infrastructure to manage such a challenge.

If the developed nations of the world fail to address this issue at its source and Ebola continues to spread and grow in Africa, we may be facing a far greater potential for wider infection in the months ahead and significantly increased chances for Ebola infections appearing around the world. The idea that this is a problem isolated to Africa will give a false sense of security. The more people that are infected there, the increased risks of infections spreading everywhere else…

In managing the situation, fear is more than simply not helpful, it is dangerous, and will undermine any attempt to establish disease containment and management systems. Fearful people cease to be rational in these situations and do stupid stuff. Having worked in emergency medicine for many years, I know never to be provoked by the fear and anxiety of others into taking action or I will live to regret it. Cool, informed heads are needed in these situations to inspire confidence that will allow for effective efforts to proceed.

There will always be the Chicken Littles in these situations. I am sure there will be money to be made for entrepreneurs with the sale of Hazmat suits. It is best for policy makers to keep an eye on the ball and the facts and apply the vast amount of knowledge and experience available on managing infectious disease epidemics and transmissions. Allowing fear to guide policy is dangerous.
Of course there always will be chicken littles out there. I am not addressing them I am saying that much like you are that there is a danger of not addressing this outbreak as has already been the case with the WHO grossly underestimating this out break in the beginning. If that had not happened perhaps and even more than likely West Africa would not be in the position it is today. How would you characterize the WHO initial reaction other than the opposite of fear?

The only method to date that has stopped Ebola in past outbreaks is isolation of areas to contain the disease. I do not see at this time any other option other than containment to stop it. While there are drugs that probably work to treat it they are is so short of supply that there is no way to have enough of them to treat the numbers that are soon to be infected just in West Africa. Let alone the rest of the third world.

This headline which I previously posted from the CDC and the WHO says it all:


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/world ... .html?_r=0
Health Officials Admit (to) ‘Defeat’ by Ebola in Sierra Leone
That literally means "Sorry folks but you are pretty much on your own" And it is coming from the world's foremost experts on contagion .

What could possibly more frightening to the populations of West Africa?

There have already been many cases of hospitals refusing to take in patients that are not certified to be free of Ebola (How does one get such certification in West Africa outside of a hospital?) There are many cases of Doctors Nurses and other medical personnel simply calling in sick and not showing up for work. This is already far far beyond fear in the currently infected countries.

The effected areas need to be quarantined from air travel Plus as much aid sent in as possible from the rest of the world. Plus the populations of the rest of the third world need to be educated on what to do if Ebola comes to their country. Not after it gets there but NOW. Before the blind fear sets in.

My guess is that before this is over there will be a world wide ban on international commercial travel for the duration. However that will happen far to late. and again I am not worried about this spreading to the developed world but the third world where the great majority of the human race lives.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
User avatar
Doc
Posts: 12593
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:10 pm

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Doc »

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... eyewitness

Ebola – as seen through the eyes of a 13-year-old from Sierra Leone

As the virus shows no sign of halting its relentless march, Bintu Sannoh describes its devastating impact on her community

The Observer, Saturday 11 October 2014 18.22 EDT

Ebola is not a pleasing name to me. In fact, I hate even to hear the word – it has destroyed my family and education. Life was hard but OK: I live with my aunt and many family members in a big compound; we have always been poor but there was happiness. But now we are terrified. Too many people, friends and families, have died and are still dying. And the number of orphans increases on a daily basis.

When Ebola first arrived in my country, we weren’t too worried. Then came “sensitisation” – all the community groups and NGOs running around talking about Ebola. But many refused to believe in the danger and even tried to make politics out of it. We had a riot in Kenema, under the banner of “Ebola is not real”. Some said the government does not care about Ebola because the government is from the north and the virus is in the east (home of the opposition party). Others said it was because doctors wanted your blood. There were so many stories and no one took Ebola too seriously.

Then, in early August, the situation changed. The government banned all movements in and out of Kenema and Kailahun districts. This hurt everyone, not just those with Ebola, as almost everything came to a standstill. We were trapped – and still are. My aunt, who used to go to the trade fair to buy local goods at low prices, could no longer travel. We had less money at home – like everyone apart from the rich people who Aunty said made money because of high prices.

Things got much worse still when Ebola came into our community. There was a pharmacist who got ill but said he was suffering from a septic ulcer, so he never went to the hospital. We believed him because he was a medical man and maybe because we didn’t know any better. Many people came in contact with him during his illness. When he died, his corpse was washed and prepared for burial by people in the community, as is our custom.

But when his death was reported to the hospital, it was found that hehad died ofEbola. After about two weeks, several people who had come in contact with him and those who washed his corpse fell ill. Out of fear, the chief called for the ambulance that came and took three people to the hospital. The sound of the ambulance frightened us, especially us children, and panic gripped the entire community: people believe that whoever is taken into the ambulance to the hospital will die – you so often don’t see them again.

Then 16 more people, including dear Aunty, became ill and, when tested, were confirmed Ebola positive. Out of that number, only Marie, a 14-year-old girl who lives with us, and my aunt mercifully survived – or else I too would be an Ebola orphan. I guess I am the lucky one, but it is hard to see it like that.

In less than two weeks, 17 people died from five households, with nine more admitted to hospital. Next we saw a group of fearfully dressed men from the hospital. They entered our home and brought out the mattresses and bedding and set them all on fire, spraying inside all the bedrooms and parlour. I watched with tears in my eyes as they did the same thing in every house where someone had died or contracted the virus. That sight was very terrifying and we all wept.

Our community was quarantined from the rest of town and we were told that no one could leave or enter for 21 days. We were surrounded by police and military: it was scary as no one could buy or sell from within the “isolation”, nor could any business people come in to sell. People who attempted to sneak out, in need of food, were forced by the guards to return.

Even though my aunt had been discharged from the hospital, she was too weak to go in search for food or prepare any for the family so we really suffered from hunger. No one brought us food or water for the first two weeks of isolation. In the third week, a charity group brought bulgur, oil and beans.

We refused to eat the bulgur though, because it gives you a runny tummy; and if you have a runny tummy and are in an isolation zone they will definitely say you have Ebola and may take you away. So we bought gari (granular flour) throughout the three weeks because that was all my poor aunt could afford – it costs just 500Le (15 pence) for a cup that can feed three people for a meal.

Even now, with all this, there is a problem with educating people about Ebola. I just met two of my friends who told me about the illness of their uncle and how they were taking care of him at home, which they should not be doing as their uncle might have the Ebola virus.

Over 100 children have been orphaned in my community alone. Who is going to take care of them? How will they survive or even go back to school? Fear always grips me when friends who I know don’t regularly wash their hands with chlorinated water want to play with me.

Thinking a little towards the future, how do I go back to school? Where will my aunt get money to support our education again? It is hard to depend on others. We want to depend on our own like we were learning to. Because of my aunt’s weakness and the difficulty of trading we have eaten the money there was in the business. We are suffering. If Ebola does not kill us, maybe hardship and hunger will get us down if no one helps us before Christmas.

Three of my friends who were to sit the BECCE (GCSE equivalent) exams have been impregnated already and I am also under pressure to go after men in order to survive and to buy a dress for Christmas. This is what girls have to do in Sierra Leone when there is no money. It is not right, but it is normal. If this Ebola does not end soon, many more girls will get pregnant before schools reopen and that will be too bad for the future of children in this country.

I should be in school now but all schools are closed indefinitely. I am worried because by the time schools reopen, there will be too many dropouts due to poverty and teenage pregnancy.

Of course, those who get Ebola and their families suffer the worst. They are provoked and the stigma keeps them worried and isolated without help. They have no food to eat and even the properties that are burned down are not replaced. But everybody in Sierra Leone is suffering because of all the other things. There is no business, no money, no food, no schools. Who will help us out of this trouble?
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
User avatar
Parodite
Posts: 5682
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:43 pm

Re: Ebola fears

Post by Parodite »

Sounds worrying... :(
Ebola virus mutating rapidly as it spreads

[...]
The virus amassed 50 mutations during its first month, the researchers found. They say there is no sign that any of these mutations have contributed to the unprecedented size of the outbreak by changing the characteristics of the Ebola virus — for instance, its ability to spread from person to person or to kill infected patients. But others are eager to examine these questions.

And such risks rise as the virus continues to spread. “The longer we allow the outbreak to continue, the greater the opportunity the virus has to mutate, and it’s possible that it will mutate into a form that would be an even greater threat than it is right now,” says Charles Chiu, an infectious-disease physician at the University of California, San Francisco.

Constant monitoring
The mutations do not seem to be affecting the efficacy of experimental drugs and vaccines, some of which have been given to patients in this outbreak. Some changes have occurred in regions of the genome that are targeted by diagnostic tests. This does not mean the tests are ineffective, but confirming this and continuing to monitor such mutations will be crucial, Chiu says.

In the meantime, doctors and researchers say that the only way to end the outbreak is to send more health workers and supplies to affected regions, and to train Africans to diagnose, trace and treat Ebola.
[...]
Deep down I'm very superficial
Post Reply