Rise of the Robots | Machine Learning

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Typhoon
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Re: Rise of the Robots

Post by Typhoon »

Nikkei Review | Robot makers surf automation wave in Southeast Asia

So will SE Asia skip the massive human driven industrialization, and migration from the farms to the cities, that the Britain, the US, Japan, and most recently China, underwent and go straight to automation?

Hmmmm.
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Re: Rise of the Robots

Post by Simple Minded »

Typhoon wrote:
The contemporary state is a very recent postwar creation and already there are indications that the model is starting to come apart.

A darker scenario would be a small group, the Eloi, owning all the robotic means of production leaving the rest, the Morlocks, to scratch out an pre-Industrial revolution subsistence existence.

My guess is that most predictions will prove to be far off the mark.
No doubt. The concept of state funded retirements or safety nets are only a post WWII phenomena, and only in a few nations. Why would anyone think it is sustainable?

Two parents family aren't having a lot of kids. That destroys the underpinnings of quite a few existing institutions. And a lot of designer kids aren't being raised by their parents but by sub-contractors. Long term ramifications of that might be another game changer.

Robots and immigrants to the resque. How to program the old culture into both might be a challenge.
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Re: Rise of the Robots

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Simple Minded wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
The contemporary state is a very recent postwar creation and already there are indications that the model is starting to come apart.

A darker scenario would be a small group, the Eloi, owning all the robotic means of production leaving the rest, the Morlocks, to scratch out an pre-Industrial revolution subsistence existence.

My guess is that most predictions will prove to be far off the mark.
No doubt. The concept of state funded retirements or safety nets are only a post WWII phenomena, and only in a few nations. Why would anyone think it is sustainable?

. . .
If memory serves, it was Bismarck in Germany that introduced the concept of a state pension at 65, back in about the 1870's.

The reason he thought that he could do so was that very few people lived to the age of 65 back then . . .
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Re: Rise of the Robots

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Typhoon wrote:
HAL 10000 wrote:The fashionable complaint against robots is that such automation will cause massive unemployment. But if we examine the capabilities of robots, we can see that this is only partly true. This is because are two kinds of robots: The type of robots that do what humans do, and the type that do what humans cannot do. While the former will certainly displace many workers within a few decades, the latter is overlooked. The future robots that will be able to do what humans can never do, will actually create new jobs from instead of stealing jobs from humans. In addition, such robots will increase productivity so much that even if 90 % of humanity becomes unemployed by the end of the century, a small percentage of the robots will be able to produce enough goods and services to provide decent food, shelter and medical care for the unemployed.
An interesting hypothesis.

One hopes that it turns out that way, but history does not inspire optimism.

After all, the Industrial Revolution is barely just over 250 years old. A drop in the ocean of human history.

The contemporary state is a very recent postwar creation and already there are indications that the model is starting to come apart.

A darker scenario would be a small group, the Eloi, owning all the robotic means of production leaving the rest, the Morlocks, to scratch out an pre-Industrial revolution subsistence existence.

My guess is that most predictions will prove to be far off the mark.
HAL 10000 wrote: But this is where energy research matters. Even when all cars become electric, this will require only a 10-20 % expansion in the grid capacity, which can easily be done by using "green" alternatives like solar, wind, geothermal, etc.
Geothermal, I don't know. Iceland seems to have done it.

The energy densities of solar and wind are simply too low and too intermittent for them to be practical.
HAL 10000 wrote: But the future robots will not be humanoid janitors that need a small amount of electric power, the real robots will be automated factories and mining machines that will excavate 10 miles underground to extract minerals, entire automated construction systems that will build new cities and the necessary infrastructures like gutters, subway stations under every street in every city, etc. And the latter activity will require the doubling and tripling of the grid capacity, which will be necessary for concentrated heavy industries, which can only be done by revolutionary forms of energy, such as molten salt thorium reactors of fusion, etc. While fusion will probably remain a distant dream until the end of the century, thorium molten salt reactors are a proven concept and there were prototypes demonstrated half a century ago. Thorium molten salt reactors, if developed at the commercial level, would totally burn all the long term nuclear waste and the remaining waste would have a half-life of only a few centuries, so that it cannot accumulate even if thousands of such reactors are built.
""Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter ..."
as Lewis Strauss famously proclaimed at the dawn of the age of commercial nuclear power . . .

I am a huge supporter of next generation nuclear power, however, thorium molten salt reactors are not the panacea that many believe them to be. There are enormous technical challenges that have yet to be met.
There is hope for thorium molten salt reactors because unlike fusion, unlike fusion, there are already working prototypes. The technical difficulties to make it practical are only a matter of investment.

There are already emerging companies from MIT that are making decent progress:

http://www.transatomicpower.com

In any case, it is ridiculous that the annual energy R & D budget of the US is less than $13 billion:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_p ... ted_States

By contrast, Americans spend nearly $100 billion per year on illegal drugs.
If we had a Manhattan Project for energy, there would be viable sources of energy for robots in a few decades. All depends on the energy for robots because if the robots become sufficiently productive, taking care of the unemployed will not offend the upper class.
The name HAL is derived from "Heuristically Programmed ALgorithmic Computer." HAL 10000 is the new generation computer destined to become the successor to HAL 9000, as suggested in Arthur C. Clarke's book.
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Re: Rise of the Robots

Post by noddy »

many many things are simpler when you dont have humans and their own selfish little priority systems involved.

im still smiling to think stoners would give up scoobs to sponser blue sky science projects :)
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Re: Rise of the Robots

Post by Simple Minded »

Typhoon wrote:
Simple Minded wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
The contemporary state is a very recent postwar creation and already there are indications that the model is starting to come apart.

A darker scenario would be a small group, the Eloi, owning all the robotic means of production leaving the rest, the Morlocks, to scratch out an pre-Industrial revolution subsistence existence.

My guess is that most predictions will prove to be far off the mark.
No doubt. The concept of state funded retirements or safety nets are only a post WWII phenomena, and only in a few nations. Why would anyone think it is sustainable?

. . .
If memory serves, it was Bismarck in Germany that introduced the concept of a state pension at 65, back in about the 1870's.

The reason he thought that he could do so was that very few people lived to the age of 65 back then . . .
Very similar, IIRC, to US Social Security 1933. Select the payout age to be beyond the average lifespan, and the program only pays those unfortunate(?) souls who outlive their savings. Nothing to do with retirement. At the outset, there were 33 payers to each recipient. Recently, that number was 3 to 1. All data from my fuzzy memory. Buyer beware.

Correcting my previous imprecise use of language, I meant the concept of state funded retirement/safety nets only became popular post WWII. Not the legislative intent.

The old ones, (that I recall from my youth) thought the idea of everyone living at the expense of someone else was dishonest, shiftless, and a sure sign of poor character. Not sure how many young ones have been exposed to that breed of old ones in the last three decades.
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Re: Rise of the Robots

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

57o380nALxY
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Re: Rise of the Robots

Post by noddy »

thats certainly putting 'rise of the robots' back on topic
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Re: Rise of the Robots

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A free online chatbot laywer has managed to overturn a staggering 160,000 parking tickets in London and New York City, saving users an estimated £2.9 million.

The artificial intelligence bot was launched just 21 months ago and is touted as the "world's first robot lawyer".

DoNotPay uses a simple chat-based interface to guide users through a range of basic questions to establish if an appeal on their parking ticket is possible.

These include queries on whether there were any visible parking signs at the location where the ticket was given.

The AI lawyer then guides the user through the lengthy appeals process.

[...]
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
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Re: Rise of the Robots

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Over two centuries, little has changed in the way apples are harvested; by and large, it is still a manual process. But now, SRI Ventures, a kind of startup incubator within the Menlo Park research and development firm SRI International, is investing in and spinning out a startup called Abundant Robotics Inc. to automate apple harvesting with agricultural robots currently in development.

The robots, as yet unnamed, were designed to be strong and fast enough to remove one fruit per second from a tree, but gentle enough not to damage trees or the fruit, according to Abundant Robotics’ CEO and co-founder Dan Steere.
http://www.freshplaza.com/article/16184 ... r-the-farm
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
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Re: Rise of the Robots

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Tech Rev | What Happens When You Give an AI a Working Memory?
The researchers show that the computer, which consists of a large neural network connected to a unique form of memory, can perform relatively complex tasks by figuring out for itself what information to hold in its memory. The tasks include figuring out the best way to get from one station to another on London’s spaghetti-like Underground transit network, after exploring diagrams of other types of networks and learning about the most salient features.
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Re: Rise of the Robots

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Doom beholding, part 2.

OixSNQp0S_k
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
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Re: Rise of the Robots

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YMix wrote:Doom beholding, part 2.

OixSNQp0S_k
Some near future version of those are going to be very very deadly.
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Re: Rise of the Robots, derp, derp, derp, derp.......

Post by Miss_Faucie_Fishtits »

Things get stylin' in these videos:

http://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/ ... bot-handle
She irons her jeans, she's evil.........
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Re: Rise of the Robots

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from the ridiculous

http://www.zmescience.com/other/economi ... -03022017/
Chinese factory replaces 90% of human workers with robots. Production rises by 250%, defects drop by 80%
to the sublime.

7m76kIzkR38
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Re: Rise of the Robots

Post by Simple Minded »

noddy wrote:from the ridiculous

http://www.zmescience.com/other/economi ... -03022017/
Chinese factory replaces 90% of human workers with robots. Production rises by 250%, defects drop by 80%
to the sublime.

7m76kIzkR38
wait til they unionize, and all the first robots start acting like the second robot.

You need to write a "Union member" AI program and all the bot makers in the world will pay you not to download it to the web....... I only need 2% for the idea.
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Re: Rise of the Robots

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the genius is once they are that smart we can get the robots to build robots todo the robots work.
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Re: Rise of the Robots | Machine Learning

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MS | Deepcoder: learning to write programs [pdf]
We develop a first line of attack for solving programming competition-style problems
from input-output examples using deep learning. The approach is to train a
neural network to predict properties of the program that generated the outputs from
the inputs. We use the neural network’s predictions to augment search techniques
from the programming languages community, including enumerative search and
an SMT-based solver. Empirically, we show that our approach leads to an order
of magnitude speedup over the strong non-augmented baselines and a Recurrent
Neural Network approach, and that we are able to solve problems of difficulty
comparable to the simplest problems on programming competition websites.
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Re: Rise of the Robots | Machine Learning

Post by Doc »

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... are_btn_tw
Artificial intelligence is ripe for abuse, tech executive warns: 'a fascist's dream'

Microsoft’s Kate Crawford tells SXSW that society must prepare for authoritarian movements to test the ‘power without accountability’ of artificial intelligence
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
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Re: Rise of the Robots | Machine Learning

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Not quite yet the Terminator

jxvZ0AdM0SY

Moravec's paradox
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Re: Rise of the Robots | Machine Learning

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Typhoon wrote:Not quite yet the Terminator

jxvZ0AdM0SY

Moravec's paradox
It was several years from the time that the Wright Bros. flew their plane before it was accepted fact by other would be airplane inventors in Paris.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wright_br ... skepticism
European skepticism

In 1906 skeptics in the European aviation community had converted the press to an anti-Wright brothers stance. European newspapers, especially those in France, were openly derisive, calling them bluffeurs (bluffers).[96]

Ernest Archdeacon, founder of the Aéro-Club de France, was publicly scornful of the brothers' claims in spite of published reports; specifically, he wrote several articles and, in 1906, stated that "the French would make the first public demonstration of powered flight".[97]

The Paris edition of the New York Herald summed up Europe's opinion of the Wright brothers in an editorial on February 10, 1906:

The Wrights have flown or they have not flown. They possess a machine or they do not possess one. They are in fact either fliers or liars. It is difficult to fly. It's easy to say, 'We have flown.'[96]

In 1908, after the Wrights' first flights in France, Archdeacon publicly admitted that he had done them an injustice.[97]
EC3CTusXxVk
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Re: Rise of the Robots | Machine Learning

Post by noddy »

all these mech suits and robots look cool in demos but it will be easy to know when they are anything more than play toys and thats keeping an eye on actuator and battery technology.

the actuators required to make these impressive looking things are very loud and require lots of battery, leaving them noisy and with very short lifespans, this is why google dropped their research, they realized it was "decades away"

obviously we might end up with batteries that dont suck but we dont have them now and when we do get them, all sorts of crazy stuff will be possible.
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Re: Rise of the Robots | Machine Learning

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noddy wrote:all these mech suits and robots look cool in demos but it will be easy to know when they are anything more than play toys and thats keeping an eye on actuator and battery technology.

the actuators required to make these impressive looking things are very loud and require lots of battery, leaving them noisy and with very short lifespans, this is why google dropped their research, they realized it was "decades away"

obviously we might end up with batteries that dont suck but we dont have them now and when we do get them, all sorts of crazy stuff will be possible.
Excellent points.

Also I don't agree with the flight analogy [Doc's post above].
Flight is based on the underlying physics of aerodynamics. It is mostly an engineering problem.
Improvement has been continuous since the first flights.

There is no analogous underlying theory of machine learning. Recently finished reading a book on so-called deep learning.
It is remarkable just how ad hoc are the designs and methods.

Unlike flight, machine learning has a long boom and bust history of over promising and under delivering.
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Re: Rise of the Robots | Machine Learning

Post by noddy »

the difference between a task specifc 'good enough' model versus AI/reality as popular culture understands it is gibberish to the power of infinity.
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