2013 Predictions.

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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Azrael » Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:38 am

Hans Bulvai wrote:Sounds more like status quo to me; plus a tribal conflict surfacing.

Tribal conflict was even worse when Gaddafi was around. Gaddafi and his tribal allies killed thousands of tribal enemies.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Hans Bulvai » Fri Jan 11, 2013 6:07 am

Azrael wrote:
Hans Bulvai wrote:Sounds more like status quo to me; plus a tribal conflict surfacing.

Tribal conflict was even worse when Gaddafi was around. Gaddafi and his tribal allies killed thousands of tribal enemies.


Killed thousands, sure.

Tribal conflict worse, arguable. Like you said, this thing is still in its infancy. And there is a difference between the state having a monopoly on violence and chaos between many tribes.

In the US, and other countries, when the state kills they call it justice. Any other and its called murder.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Typhoon » Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:39 pm

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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Azrael » Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:41 pm


I was somewhat shocked that nobody mentioned accidental nuclear war as a risk to worry about.

For that reason, I'm not too impressed with the "experts" cited.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Tue Jan 15, 2013 7:16 am

.

America leaving Afghanistan, entirely (similar to Iraq)

In that sense, either Karzai will be the new Nouri Maliki or Karzai will exit


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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Doc » Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:43 pm

Unemployment in the US at 15% by the end of the year -- From the trends I am starting to see. There won't be much of a recovery afterwards.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Typhoon » Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:40 am

Doc wrote:Unemployment in the US at 15% by the end of the year -- From the trends I am starting to see. There won't be much of a recovery afterwards.


Do you mean the official US govt number?
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Doc » Fri Jan 25, 2013 3:49 am

Typhoon wrote:
Doc wrote:Unemployment in the US at 15% by the end of the year -- From the trends I am starting to see. There won't be much of a recovery afterwards.


Do you mean the official US govt number?


Yeah. Call the decline, the disruptive technology recession.

Manufacturing and private business activity, at least where I live and work, is practically nil so far this year. In fact it has been bad since Nov.

Seems like the internet "disruptive technology" is killing a lot of local business as well.

Thus the 15% unemployment. I really don't know where a lot of people are going to find jobs. If someone does not have a serious college degree I am wondering where there will be jobs. The books stores are closing. Soon the last big box electronics store, best Buy,is going to be out of retail sales because it is not making money being Amazon's show room. The only thing left will be labor intensive services. Like House cleaning or plumbing. But if so many are out of work I don't see much future with those either.

Already people are getting pretty desperate. Just day before yesterday in a town near here someone stole the gas pipes out of a vacant duplex with the gas turned on. The fire dept had to evacuate a block because they were worried about an explosion. Gas pipe isn't even worth all that much.

I know of small capital equipment companies that are getting clobbered. Normally the one has sales of two or three big ticket sales a month. Their last sale was in Oct. Service work is the only thing keeping them going.

It may not happen that it goes up to 15%, but it sure does not look that good at the moment.

Scary stuff.
Last edited by Doc on Fri Jan 25, 2013 3:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby noddy » Fri Jan 25, 2013 3:53 am

this pattern is showing up everywhere - even in australia which allegedly missed the downturn.

the government keeps rejigging the unemployment figures but the participation figures which show this happening.

Image

this shows american unemployement is atleast 4% higher than the official figures and if i could be bothered chasing up the hours worked figures it would be worse again.

more so again if you add on all the younger people stuck in education loops ..which conveniently takes them out of the unemployment stats.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Doc » Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:09 am

noddy wrote:this pattern is showing up everywhere - even in australia which allegedly missed the downturn.

the government keeps rejigging the unemployment figures but the participation figures which show this happening.

Image

this shows american unemployement is atleast 4% higher than the official figures and if i could be bothered chasing up the hours worked figures it would be worse again.

more so again if you add on all the younger people stuck in education loops ..which conveniently takes them out of the unemployment stats.


There are millions that are not being counted as they have quit looking. 4.8 million long term unemployed which accounts for about 1/3 of the official unemployment number.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Typhoon » Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:54 am

Doc wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Doc wrote:Unemployment in the US at 15% by the end of the year -- From the trends I am starting to see. There won't be much of a recovery afterwards.


Do you mean the official US govt number?


Yeah.


That would be a big problem.

Doc wrote:Call the decline, the disruptive technology recession.

Manufacturing and private business activity, at least where I live and work, is practically nil so far this year. In fact it has been bad since Nov.

Seems like the internet "disruptive technology" is killing a lot of local business as well.


Law of unintended consequences at work again.

Doc wrote:Thus the 15% unemployment. I really don't know where a lot of people are going to find jobs. If someone does not have a serious college degree I am wondering where there will be jobs. The books stores are closing. Soon the last big box electronics store, Best Buy,is going to be out of retail sales because it is not making money being Amazon's show room. The only thing left will be labor intensive services. Like House cleaning or plumbing. But if so many are out of work I don't see much future with those either.


So the technical trades such as plumbing, electrical, mechanic, machinist, are also in trouble?

Yet the US stock market has been on a tear. Good corporate profits for some.

Oddly enough, shopping mall REIT [real estate investment trusts] have also been going up for a while now.

Doc wrote:Already people are getting pretty desperate. Just day before yesterday in a town near here someone stole the gas pipes out of a vacant duplex with the gas turned on. The fire dept had to evacuate a block because they were worried about an explosion. Gas pipe isn't even worth all that much.


Stealing metal was a big activity during and after the collapse of the former SU.

Doc wrote:I know of small capital equipment companies that are getting clobbered. Normally the one has sales of two or three big ticket sales a month. Their last sale was in Oct. Service work is the only thing keeping them going.

It may not happen that it goes up to 15%, but it sure does not look that good at the moment.

Scary stuff.


Agreed.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Doc » Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:25 pm

Typhoon wrote:
Doc wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Doc wrote:Unemployment in the US at 15% by the end of the year -- From the trends I am starting to see. There won't be much of a recovery afterwards.


Do you mean the official US govt number?


Yeah.


That would be a big problem.

Doc wrote:Call the decline, the disruptive technology recession.

Manufacturing and private business activity, at least where I live and work, is practically nil so far this year. In fact it has been bad since Nov.

Seems like the internet "disruptive technology" is killing a lot of local business as well.


Law of unintended consequences at work again.

Doc wrote:Thus the 15% unemployment. I really don't know where a lot of people are going to find jobs. If someone does not have a serious college degree I am wondering where there will be jobs. The books stores are closing. Soon the last big box electronics store, Best Buy,is going to be out of retail sales because it is not making money being Amazon's show room. The only thing left will be labor intensive services. Like House cleaning or plumbing. But if so many are out of work I don't see much future with those either.


Typhoon wrote:So the technical trades such as plumbing, electrical, mechanic, machinist, are also in trouble?


All will be in high demand for a while. After all -- for example you need mechanics to keep all those trucks running that carry all those Amazon packages. But make no mistake the economy is shrinking verses what it would have been doing otherwise. If people don't have the money to buy things they will be forced to back away from the division of labor called the monetary system and do more things personally for themselves. But that will be a hard road to hoe given that the local hardware store "showroom" will no longer be there.

Could turn into a real downward spiral.

Yet the US stock market has been on a tear. Good corporate profits for some.


We are in danger of replacing the "Captains of industry" Of the last century with the "Captains of the internet" of this century. But eventually the dead wood will bring it back down again. If you track the value of the Dollar vs gold vs the stock market it has not been all the impressive of a recovery even for the stock markets.

Typhoon wrote:Oddly enough, shopping mall REIT [real estate investment trusts] have also been going up for a while now.


Land ownership is inflation proof. The super rich have been buying up lots of land since there isn't much in the way of better long term investments.

Doc wrote:Already people are getting pretty desperate. Just day before yesterday in a town near here someone stole the gas pipes out of a vacant duplex with the gas turned on. The fire dept had to evacuate a block because they were worried about an explosion. Gas pipe isn't even worth all that much.


Typhoon wrote:Stealing metal was a big activity during and after the collapse of the former SU.

Doc wrote:I know of small capital equipment companies that are getting clobbered. Normally the one has sales of two or three big ticket sales a month. Their last sale was in Oct. Service work is the only thing keeping them going.

It may not happen that it goes up to 15%, but it sure does not look that good at the moment.

Scary stuff.


Typhoon wrote:Agreed.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Typhoon » Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:23 am

I wonder if what you're observing is being reflected in the recent US Consumer Confidence number.

Amazon can probably be considered a proxy for the US consumer economy now, and it reported poor results.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Hoosiernorm » Wed Jan 30, 2013 3:59 pm

Wow, they are taking more money out of peoples pay checks and they have less money to spend. Who would have thought that...
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Doc » Wed Jan 30, 2013 7:04 pm

Typhoon wrote:I wonder if what you're observing is being reflected in the recent US Consumer Confidence number.

Amazon can probably be considered a proxy for the US consumer economy now, and it reported poor results.


That and less spending by the federal government. It seems government's left hand doesn't know what its right hand is doing.

http://www.ttnews.com/articles/printnew ... ryid=31133
The economy was restrained by the biggest decline in defense spending in four decades, and lower government spending combined with declining inventories accounted for a combined 2.6 percentage points from economic growth, Bloomberg said.


I expect that the declining inventories part is the bigger factor. Business inventories are going to be lower simply because with the internet they can receive their orders and have them shipped from the factory cheaper than from their own warehouses.
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Hans Bulvai » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:21 am

Well....

Should we revisit the predictions made for 2013?
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Re: 2013 Predictions.

Postby Heracleum Persicum » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:33 am

Hans Bulvai wrote:Well....

Should we revisit the predictions made for 2013?


Hi Hans .. I predict you will start posting again, welcome back
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