On the Nature of Things | Forum

I'll start by predicting that there will be a 2013.

By the end of 2013:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will no longer be the President of Iran.

Hugo Chavez will no longer be the President of Venezuela.

Stanford will win the Rose Bowl.

Bashar al-Assad no longer in power in Damascus.

Facebook ends 2013 below IPO price.

Sir Michael John Berridge wins Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.

Anton Zeilinger wins Nobel Prize in Physics.

The CDU/CSU will continue to be the largest party in the German Parliament after the 2013 election.

Angela Merkel will continue to be the Chancellor of Germany.

The Democratic Party will be the largest party in the Italian Parliament.

Pier Luigi Bersani will be the Prime Minister of Italy.

Julia Gillard will continue to be the Prime Minister of Australia.

Majority of voters vote Yes in Falkland Islands sovereignty referendum, 2013.

U.S. core CPI inflation rate will be below 2.5% for year.

The Likud will be the largest party after the next Israeli election.

Bibi will still be Prime Minister after the election.

Ireland will still be in the Euro zone.

So will Spain.

So will Portugal.

Iran will not be bombed by the U.S. Air Force.

Azrael wrote:By the end of 2013:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will no longer be the President of Iran.

Hugo Chavez will no longer be the President of Venezuela.

Stanford will win the Rose Bowl.

Bashar al-Assad no longer in power in Damascus.

Facebook ends 2013 below IPO price.

Sir Michael John Berridge wins Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.

Anton Zeilinger wins Nobel Prize in Physics.

The CDU/CSU will continue to be the largest party in the German Parliament after the 2013 election.

Angela Merkel will continue to be the Chancellor of Germany.

The Democratic Party will be the largest party in the Italian Parliament.

Pier Luigi Bersani will be the Prime Minister of Italy.

Julia Gillard will continue to be the Prime Minister of Australia.

Majority of voters vote Yes in Falkland Islands sovereignty referendum, 2013.

U.S. core CPI inflation rate will be below 2.5% for year.

The Likud will be the largest party after the next Israeli election.

Bibi will still be Prime Minister after the election.

Ireland will still be in the Euro zone.

So will Spain.

So will Portugal.

Iran will not be bombed by the U.S. Air Force.

amen


.

Yeah, go Stanford!

Azrael wrote:By the end of 2013:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will no longer be the President of Iran.

Hugo Chavez will no longer be the President of Venezuela.

Stanford will win the Rose Bowl.

Bashar al-Assad no longer in power in Damascus.

Facebook ends 2013 below IPO price.

Sir Michael John Berridge wins Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.

Anton Zeilinger wins Nobel Prize in Physics.

The CDU/CSU will continue to be the largest party in the German Parliament after the 2013 election.

Angela Merkel will continue to be the Chancellor of Germany.

The Democratic Party will be the largest party in the Italian Parliament.

Pier Luigi Bersani will be the Prime Minister of Italy.

Julia Gillard will continue to be the Prime Minister of Australia.

Majority of voters vote Yes in Falkland Islands sovereignty referendum, 2013.

U.S. core CPI inflation rate will be below 2.5% for year.

The Likud will be the largest party after the next Israeli election.

Bibi will still be Prime Minister after the election.

Ireland will still be in the Euro zone.

So will Spain.

So will Portugal.

Iran will not be bombed by the U.S. Air Force.

Pretty accurate.

I'll add:

Middle East continues to spiral out of control.
Libya deteriorates further. So will Syria and possibly Lebanon.
Egypt turmoil continues.

Israel continues to build settlements inspite of the world while the US continues to cover for it.

Greece stays in the Eurozone; barely.

Iran will not be bombed by the Israeli Air force.

I guess I'm more optimistic about Libya than you are. I expect that by the last day of 2013, there will be some improvement in Libya over where things stand today.

Azrael wrote:I guess I'm more optimistic about Libya than you are. I expect that by the last day of 2013, there will be some improvement in Libya over where things stand today.

So how do we quantify it?

Different factions not killing each other?
Oil revenues that benefit the people?
Libya not being used as a base for US drones killing someone in Africa?
Fundamentalism not the order of the day (i.e. no Saudi/Qatari hate preachers filling the mosques)?
A none corrupt government ruling just Tripoli?

All of the above? 50% or more?

Hans Bulvai wrote:

Azrael wrote:I guess I'm more optimistic about Libya than you are. I expect that by the last day of 2013, there will be some improvement in Libya over where things stand today.

So how do we quantify it?

Different factions not killing each other?
Oil revenues that benefit the people?
Libya not being used as a base for US drones killing someone in Africa?
Fundamentalism not the order of the day (i.e. no Saudi/Qatari hate preachers filling the mosques)?
A none corrupt government ruling just Tripoli?

All of the above? 50% or more?

How would you quantify "Libya deteriorates further"? I would recommend quantifying both (opposing) predictions the same way in order to be consistent.

How about the number of violent deaths per month and/or how much territory is controlled by the internationally recognized government?

Azrael wrote:

Hans Bulvai wrote:

Azrael wrote:I guess I'm more optimistic about Libya than you are. I expect that by the last day of 2013, there will be some improvement in Libya over where things stand today.

So how do we quantify it?

Different factions not killing each other?
Oil revenues that benefit the people?
Libya not being used as a base for US drones killing someone in Africa?
Fundamentalism not the order of the day (i.e. no Saudi/Qatari hate preachers filling the mosques)?
A none corrupt government ruling just Tripoli?

All of the above? 50% or more?

How would you quantify "Libya deteriorates further"? I would recommend quantifying both (opposing) predictions the same way in order to be consistent.

How about the number of violent deaths per month and/or how much territory is controlled by the internationally recognized government?

Fair enough. But we should add oil revenues that benefit the people in there. And we won't even consider the drone thing since it is probably a given?

Texas will succeed from the union and be recognized by Mexico and will become the 33rd state of Mexico

Vermont will succeed from the union and will not be recognized by anyone. Everyone in Canada already thought it was already a province.

Malia Obama goes on the pill and starts a national discussion on birth control

Xi Jinping is declared the most unrecognized politician in the world and decides to go on the view to change the perceptions of the American people. When the ratings show that everyone in China watched the episode he becomes the most sought after celebrity guest in network history. He becomes a frequent co host on Live With Kelly and Michael

The Dali Lama will be sued for using Andy Rooney's monologue unsourced in a speech to the general assembly about the meaning of the true spiritual nature of man.

Tiger Woods has a comeback year, converts to Islam, and remarries. His Islamic name is Wasiq Tiger Faakhir and Nike will set new records selling his WTF gear in shops everywhere.

Kazakhstan will change it's national anthem to the Borat version in an attempt to draw more tourism to the republic.

President Obama visits a Marijuana bar in Colorado and smokes a fatty during a photo op.

Earth will not be destroyed by cow farts or Mama Guyo Earth farts, but some people will screw up their lives so much they will wish for death by flatulence of any kind.

In an effort to stem violence and control societal costs, congress passes a law that fetuses that appear unviable to be aborted as late as the 83rd trimester. Obama signs it into law and heralds it as "transformational legislation." Single parents rejoice. NRA bums out. Stock prices of firearms of firearms manufacturers drop. University professors committ suicide en masse.

As noddy finishes proof reading the last page of his magum opus titled Indifference, he reluctantly realises a better title would be Apathy. Being a man of high ideals, and not a hypocrite, he deletes the computer files and shreads the only paper transcript. My respect for him remains untarnished.

People who live in blue cities have an epiphany (pretty sure thats a real word) and realize that they really are not afraid of guns at all, but of the other people who live in blue cities. Since they are social beasts by nature, they are not sure what to do with this new found knowledge. Their senses of both existential angst and that "Life sucks!" increases by 0.65% per year. Collectively, they note the 98.754% corrillation to global temperature and decide MMGW is the cause.

New technology becomes available that allows economical liposuction of human fat and conversion to BTUs. For the first time in history, DC is ahead of the trend and goes off the dollar standard and adopts the cellulite standard. Income is no longer taxed. Taxes are based on BMI. The formerly rich beathe a sigh of relief as the obese become perceived as the new evil 1%. Criminal thieft of copper wire and manhole covers disappears while kdnapping of the obese skyrockets.

Taken as a whole with the other predictions above, 2013 looks like a pretty good year.

Some sort of irrational Assault Rifle fetishism compromise legislation will be put into place at the Federal level.

The TSA will be given contracts to screen all government schools and Pedobear will become the national spokesman for the public service campaign

Hoosiernorm wrote:The TSA will be given contracts to screen all government schools and Pedobear will become the national spokesman for the public service campaign

I sense a whole new generation of superheroes and comic books in the making.....

Mild mannered Tedy Bear best friend at night.... but during the day, hard core body cavity search artist....and devoted public servant.... doing his patriotic duty..... for the children.....

ooops

The number three top Al-Qaeda leader in Afghanistan will be killed 50 times this year along with several top deputies several goats and a few hundred unarmed civilians and children.

Pink slime will get a make over and return as Super SPAM! The new nutrient rich low calorie protein source will be a must have and will come in a variety of flavors that all taste like chicken.

Jimmy Carter

Billy Graham

Ed Asner

George H W Bush

Castro

King Abdullah

Hugo Chavez

Keeping my Ghoul Pool but adding Mandela

Celebrity Deaths to include Keith Richards, Mick Jagger, Whomever is playing Bass for Spinal Tap, Anderson Cooper, Eddie Murphy, Jerry Lewis, Mickey Rooney, Tim Conway, Carol Burnett, Mel Brooks, Gene Wilder.

Hoosiernorm wrote:The number three top Al-Qaeda leader in Afghanistan will be killed 50 times this year along with several top deputies several goats and a few hundred unarmed civilians and children.

During the early years of the Iraq War, there were frequent announcements that "one of the highest-ranking Al Qaeda leaders" was killed in Iraq. He was generally some nobody that nobody had heard of who may or may not have been a terrorist, or an insurgent, etc.

The more things change the more things stay the same.

Hoosiernorm wrote:Pink slime will get a make over and return as Super SPAM! The new nutrient rich low calorie protein source will be a must have and will come in a variety of flavors that all taste like chicken.

Unfortunately, it's supposed to taste like beef.

Hoosiernorm wrote:

Jimmy Carter

He seems to be doing well. I think he'll survive the year.

Billy Graham

Probably right about this one.

Ed Asner

He seems to be doing well. I think he'll survive the year.

George H W Bush

Castro

King Abdullah

Hugo Chavez

Agree, agree, agree, agree.

Keeping my Ghoul Pool but adding Mandela

Agree on Mandela.

Hans Bulvai wrote:

Azrael wrote:

Hans Bulvai wrote:

Azrael wrote:I guess I'm more optimistic about Libya than you are. I expect that by the last day of 2013, there will be some improvement in Libya over where things stand today.

So how do we quantify it?

Different factions not killing each other?
Oil revenues that benefit the people?
Libya not being used as a base for US drones killing someone in Africa?
Fundamentalism not the order of the day (i.e. no Saudi/Qatari hate preachers filling the mosques)?
A none corrupt government ruling just Tripoli?

All of the above? 50% or more?

How would you quantify "Libya deteriorates further"? I would recommend quantifying both (opposing) predictions the same way in order to be consistent.

How about the number of violent deaths per month and/or how much territory is controlled by the internationally recognized government?

Fair enough. But we should add oil revenues that benefit the people in there.

Oil revenues vary with the price of oil, so I don't think that it is a particularly good measure. Neither is barrels produced, since production decisions depend on many factors, including the price of oil.

And we won't even consider the drone thing since it is probably a given?

Yes, I'm afraid it's a given.

Azrael wrote:

Hans Bulvai wrote:

Azrael wrote:

Hans Bulvai wrote:

Azrael wrote:I guess I'm more optimistic about Libya than you are. I expect that by the last day of 2013, there will be some improvement in Libya over where things stand today.

So how do we quantify it?

Different factions not killing each other?
Oil revenues that benefit the people?
Libya not being used as a base for US drones killing someone in Africa?
Fundamentalism not the order of the day (i.e. no Saudi/Qatari hate preachers filling the mosques)?
A none corrupt government ruling just Tripoli?

All of the above? 50% or more?

How would you quantify "Libya deteriorates further"? I would recommend quantifying both (opposing) predictions the same way in order to be consistent.

How about the number of violent deaths per month and/or how much territory is controlled by the internationally recognized government?

Fair enough. But we should add oil revenues that benefit the people in there.

Oil revenues vary with the price of oil, so I don't think that it is a particularly good measure. Neither is barrels produced, since production decisions depend on many factors, including the price of oil.

C'mon Azrael. Oil is not going to turn into water anytime soon. Libya is drowning in the stuff with a fairly small population. No matter the fluctuations, the state should still be able to provide a high standard of living to its citizens. But that will not happen. The massive amount of theft and corruption going on now will not change by the end of the year. All indications point to the opposite. But we can talk about that in the libya thread.

Hans Bulvai wrote:

Azrael wrote:

Hans Bulvai wrote:

Azrael wrote:

Hans Bulvai wrote:

Azrael wrote:I guess I'm more optimistic about Libya than you are. I expect that by the last day of 2013, there will be some improvement in Libya over where things stand today.

So how do we quantify it?

Different factions not killing each other?
Oil revenues that benefit the people?
Libya not being used as a base for US drones killing someone in Africa?
Fundamentalism not the order of the day (i.e. no Saudi/Qatari hate preachers filling the mosques)?
A none corrupt government ruling just Tripoli?

All of the above? 50% or more?

How would you quantify "Libya deteriorates further"? I would recommend quantifying both (opposing) predictions the same way in order to be consistent.

How about the number of violent deaths per month and/or how much territory is controlled by the internationally recognized government?

Fair enough. But we should add oil revenues that benefit the people in there.

Oil revenues vary with the price of oil, so I don't think that it is a particularly good measure. Neither is barrels produced, since production decisions depend on many factors, including the price of oil.

C'mon Azrael. Oil is not going to turn into water anytime soon. Libya is drowning in the stuff with a fairly small population. No matter the fluctuations, the state should still be able to provide a high standard of living to its citizens.

It would be interesting to compare the Libyan standard of living before the fall of Gaddafi versus after, perhaps adjusted for the price of oil.

The Russian standard of living has risen with the price of oil, and the same is true for a number of oil-producing countries.

But that will not happen. The massive amount of theft and corruption going on now will not change by the end of the year.

What about the theft and corruption under Gaddafi?

All indications point to the opposite. But we can talk about that in the libya thread.

All indications are that it is tough to get a democracy off the ground in a place that has had little if any experience of it in the past.

Considering where they're starting out, and the fact that Gaddafi hasn't been gone all that long yet, I'd say that they're doing pretty well.

Sounds more like status quo to me; plus a tribal conflict surfacing.