Climate change and other predictions of Imminent Doom

[Nonc Hilaire]

F152E1D9-75C0-45D0-BF5F-73C787576063.jpeg (108.38 KiB) Viewed 17331 times

[Parodite]

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[Parodite]

Greta Thunberg now taps away negative energy from people? Could be her sister though.

[Typhoon]

A bit of sanity.

Retraction Watch | Stanford prof ordered to pay legal fees after dropping $10 million defamation case against another scientist

The paper which lead to the lawsuit.

PNAS | Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar

Best comment:

When there is a disagreement between reality and the model, it’s always a sure bet the scientific modeler will fight reality.

[Typhoon]

Keeping in mind that

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.

--- Niels Bohr

The Lancet | Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Implications of all the available evidence

Our reference forecast of the global population in 2100 was lower than the Wittgenstein Centre forecast and much lower than the UNPD forecast. Our findings suggest that, because of progress in female educational attainment and access to contraception contributing to declining fertility rates, continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world's population. By contrast, world population might peak just after mid-century and substantially decline by 2100. The difference in population forecasts between our reference scenario and the UNPD forecasts is a third due to faster declines in sub-Saharan African fertility and two thirds due to the lower level of TFR expected in populations with fertility lower than the replacement level, especially China and India. Our findings show that some countries with fertility lower than replacement level, such as the USA, Australia, and Canada, will probably maintain their working-age populations through net immigration. Our forecasts for a shrinking global population have positive implications for the environment, climate change, and food production, but possible negative implications for labour forces, economic growth, and social support systems in parts of the world with the greatest fertility declines

Reason | The Population Bombed

[Typhoon]

Manhatt Contr | What Is The Cause Of The Recent Power Blackouts In California?

Calif Globe | Recall Deja Vu: CA Rolling Blackouts are Back

Odd to see a US state voting itself back into developing world status with regards to energy and power.

[Simple Minded]

Manhatt Contr | What Is The Cause Of The Recent Power Blackouts In California?

Calif Globe | Recall Deja Vu: CA Rolling Blackouts are Back

Odd to see a US state voting itself back into developing world status with regards to energy and power.

Not so odd. But to explain "cause and effect" to those who have chosen to study soft science instead of hard science..... is next to impossible.

As a friend would say "That's why STUPID is supposed to hurt!"

[Typhoon]

Manhatt Contr | What Is The Cause Of The Recent Power Blackouts In California?

Calif Globe | Recall Deja Vu: CA Rolling Blackouts are Back

Odd to see a US state voting itself back into developing world status with regards to energy and power.

Not so odd. But to explain "cause and effect" to those who have chosen to study soft science instead of hard science..... is next to impossible.

As a friend would say "That's why STUPID is supposed to hurt!"

Quite.

Forbes - Michael Shellenberger | Why California’s Climate Policies Are Causing Electricity Blackouts

What is interesting is the proposed "New Green Deal" would implement even more extreme so-called renewable energy policies than those of CA across the USA.

[Typhoon]

Michael "Hid the Decline" Mann's defamation suit against Dr. Tim "Michael Mann at Penn State should be in the state pen, not Penn State" Ball dismissed by judge in BC, Canada.

Decision by judge:

https://principia-scientific.com/wp-con ... canada.pdf [pdf]

[Miss_Faucie_Fishtits]

Michael "Hid the Decline" Mann's defamation suit against Dr. Tim "Michael Mann at Penn State should be in the state pen, not Penn State" Ball dismissed by judge in BC, Canada.

Decision by judge:

https://principia-scientific.com/wp-con ... canada.pdf [pdf]

Well. the ball was in his court then....'>......

[Ammianus]

Man I've been gone for so long, I almost forgot I still have an account here, until I saw 1+ million acres burned in....Oregon, of all places. Not California, Oregon. Oh yes, and the Blade Runner 2049 skies over San Francisco just a few days. One two punch made me remember this thread today.

Similar to what Australia underwent earlier this January, the ongoing catastrophe in the Western U.S. states of California, Oregon, and Washington was literally predicted over 10 years ago, way back in the old Spengler forum days of 2007-2008. I remember distinctly the same people back in literally the same thread on this topic pooh poohing any prospects of long run super fires in that region, dismissing any serious concerns of climate drive fire storms there as hysteria. I also remember some people (can't remember who specifically) even calling for bets that fire season in California will either stay stable or even improve in the coming decade.

And now we have literally the smoked drenched and fiery results 10+ years later, staring in everyone's face. Never forget the words use in the past, and never forget to hold them accountable.

[Typhoon]

Man I've been gone for so long, I almost forgot I still have an account here, until I saw 1+ million acres burned in....Oregon, of all places. Not California, Oregon. Oh yes, and the Blade Runner 2049 skies over San Francisco just a few days. One two punch made me remember this thread today.

Similar to what Australia underwent earlier this January, the ongoing catastrophe in the Western U.S. states of California, Oregon, and Washington was literally predicted over 10 years ago, way back in the old Spengler forum days of 2007-2008. I remember distinctly the same people back in literally the same thread on this topic pooh poohing any prospects of long run super fires in that region, dismissing any serious concerns of climate drive fire storms there as hysteria. I also remember some people (can't remember who specifically) even calling for bets that fire season in California will either stay stable or even improve in the coming decade.

And now we have literally the smoked drenched and fiery results 10+ years later, staring in everyone's face. Never forget the words use in the past, and never forget to hold them accountable.

A conveniently selective memory.

As before, in the case of both Australia and the US, environmentalists have prevented forest undergrowth clearing and controlled burns, so the resulting conflagrations due to the massive accumulation of flammable biomass are not unexpected.

Indigenous plants in both Australia and California, e.g., redwoods, require fire to propagate. Fire is part of the natural cycle of these ecosystems.

[Apollonius]

Man I've been gone for so long, I almost forgot I still have an account here, until I saw 1+ million acres burned in....Oregon, of all places. Not California, Oregon. Oh yes, and the Blade Runner 2049 skies over San Francisco just a few days. One two punch made me remember this thread today.

Similar to what Australia underwent earlier this January, the ongoing catastrophe in the Western U.S. states of California, Oregon, and Washington was literally predicted over 10 years ago, way back in the old Spengler forum days of 2007-2008. I remember distinctly the same people back in literally the same thread on this topic pooh poohing any prospects of long run super fires in that region, dismissing any serious concerns of climate drive fire storms there as hysteria. I also remember some people (can't remember who specifically) even calling for bets that fire season in California will either stay stable or even improve in the coming decade.

And now we have literally the smoked drenched and fiery results 10+ years later, staring in everyone's face. Never forget the words use in the past, and never forget to hold them accountable.

Hello Ammianus and welcome back!

I am a very infrequent poster to this thread. I believe I posted to it exactly once-- the second post.

That's because although the topic is of some interest to me, I don't like arguing about it. I believe climate change is real. The climate is always changing. I even believe humans have affected the earth's climate at least to a certain extent and have done so for thousands of years.

On the other hand, efforts to reduce carbon emissions don't seem to have been particularly effective. While there has been some minor success in the developed world, China, India, and Africa have continued to expand their coal and gas fired electrical production and have told the world in no uncertain terms that they have no intention of letting concerns about the consequences of increased hydrocarbons interfere with their development plans.

It also seems that there is not enough attention given to the big picture when alternative 'green' energy sources are considered. Are they efficient enough to fulfill needs? Are there environmental concerns with some of these alternatives? Will ordinary people be able to afford them?


As to these recent fires, we see many media reports about them being inevitable with global warming but almost nothing about what actually set the fires off:


https://www.theblaze.com/news/authoriti ... -wildfires

Authorities have arrested at least four people for arson in the massive and still-growing wildfires in California, Oregon, and Washington. According to reports, authorities in those states say that at least four of the fires are considered suspicious.

California authorities arrested suspect Anita Esquivel for intentionally setting fires along U.S. 101. She was booked into the Monterey County Jail on arson charges.

Oregon authorities also arrested Michael Jarrod Bakkela, who lived in the woods of Oregon on two counts of arson, 15 counts of criminal mischief, and 14 counts of reckless endangerment. Oregon Live reports that Bakkela is reportedly responsible for setting one of two major wildfires in the state, which has killed dozens and displaced hundreds.

Oregon State Fire Marshal's office spokesperson Rich Tyler added that the fire Bakkela reportedly set is considered to be one of two origins of the Almeda fire. Jackson County Sheriff's Office PIO Mike Moran told ABC News that the fire has caused "significant damage."

Washington authorities arrested two unrelated suspects who reportedly set small fires in the brush in two different areas of freeway. CNN on Thursday reported that the wildfires across the western states torched more than 4 million acres, which is roughly the size of the state of New Jersey.

[Simple Minded]

Well said Apollonius. This is always an interesting topic. The religious view of the catastrophic climate changers always amaze me. Tell a Prius owner that the manufacturer of their vehicle created more polution than the manufacture of a Corrolla, and they are dumbfounded. Ask them how they plan to re-cycle their battery when it dies and they are equally ignorant.

Obviously the climate has always been changing, scientists tell us once there was no ice on planet Earth, and at a different time, cut of the Northern hemisphere was covered with ice and ocean levels were 230 feet lower.

The honest answer is climate change is somewhat due to humans, X%, and the rest due to nature, (100-X)%. Problem is no one can accurately define X.

And when the models get hyper-simplified to achieve the desired doom and gloom predictions, it is obviously a scam. It's too complicated to try to model clouds, so remove the sun as a factor influencing climate.

As MFF previously posted:

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[noddy]

cant speak for California but the real tragedy of the Australian fires was it exposed how national parks are a lie we tell ourselves and nothing is protected in them or by them.

the ratio of forest to farmland to suburbia is such that a big fire is guaranteed to impact humans and guaranteed to remove the last sanctuary for many species of animal - its all small pockets of forest, surrounded by farms and suburbs.

this is all very simple - being worse or better from temperature variations is a secondary concern - the outcomes are already built in - all the forest is regrowth, full of weeds and not big enough to sustain a proper wilderness.

[Typhoon]

Shellenberger | California Has Always Had Fires, Environmental Alarmism Makes Them Worse Than Necessary

[Simple Minded]

Very interesting drone footage. Fire that seems very selective about what it consumes.

[Nonc Hilaire]

Very interesting drone footage. Fire that seems very selective about what it consumes.

We saw this last year. Only buildings connected to the power grid burnt to the ground and the surrounding vegetation untouched.

[noddy]

that happens all the time, it takes a very hot fire to burn green trees.

Its why preventative burning works.

[Simple Minded]

that happens all the time, it takes a very hot fire to burn green trees.

Its why preventative burning works.

you speak like someone who spends time outside instead of majoring in environmental activism......

[Typhoon]

Backreaction | Follow the Science? Nonsense, I say.

There’s all these left-wing do-gooders who think their readers are too f*cking dumb to draw their own conclusions so it’s not enough to tell me what’s the correlation between hurricane intensity and air moisture, no, they also have to tell me that, therefore, I should donate to save the polar bears. There’s this implied link: Science says this, therefore you should do that. Follow the science, stop flying. Follow the science, go vegan. Follow the science and glue yourself to a bus, because certainly that’s the logical conclusion to draw from the observed weakening of the atlantic meridional circulation.

[Miss_Faucie_Fishtits]

Bad Policies Fuel Fires

Forests are supposed to burn. If there aren’t small fires, debris from dead trees and plants accumulate. That provides fuel for big, deadlier fires, that are more likely to burn out of control.

https://pjmedia.com/columns/john-stosse ... es-n954616

[Typhoon]

Forbes Doshi | The West Intends Energy Suicide: Will It Succeed?

[Typhoon]

Visual Capital | How and where is electrical power generated in the US

[Typhoon]

Posting this recent paper here for reference for when I have time to read it.

arXiv | Dependence of Earth's Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases

W. A. van Wijngaarden, W. Happer

Abstract
The atmospheric temperatures and concentrations of Earth's five most important, greenhouse gases, H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4 control the cloud-free, thermal radiative flux from the Earth to outer space. Over 1/3 million lines having strengths as low as 10−27 cm of the HITRAN database were used to evaluate the dependence of the forcing on the gas concentrations. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere, where there is negligible saturation of the absorption bands, or interference of one type of greenhouse gas with others, the per-molecule forcings are of order 10−22 W for H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4. For current atmospheric concentrations, the per-molecule forcings of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 are suppressed by four orders of magnitude. The forcings of the less abundant greenhouse gases, O3, N2O and CH4, are also suppressed, but much less so. For current concentrations, the per-molecule forcings are two to three orders of magnitude greater for O3, N2O and CH4, than those of H2O or CO2. Doubling the current concentrations of CO2, N2O or CH4 increases the forcings by a few per cent. These forcing results are close to previously published values even though the calculations did not utilize either a CO2 or H2O continuum. The change in surface temperature due to CO2 doubling is estimated taking into account radiative-convective equilibrium of the atmosphere as well as water feedback for the cases of fixed absolute and relative humidities as well as the effect of using a pseudoadiabatic lapse rate to model the troposphere temperature. Satellite spectral measurements at various latitudes are in excellent quantitative agreement with modelled intensities.