Ukraine

[Heracleum Persicum]

seems someone is bombing the drone production and ammo stockpile sites in Iran and Syria.

hard to find news that isnt twitter shitters tho.

https://news.yahoo.com/satellite-images ... 24719.html


Iranian media showed video and Fotos .. no damage

[Heracleum Persicum]

https://www.rt.com/news/570722-croatian ... raine-aid/

Increasingly lethal military aid to Ukraine from NATO powers is “deeply immoral” and will only extend Kiev’s bloody conflict with Russia, causing more casualties and heightening the risk of nuclear war in a pointless pursuit of absurd goals, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic has claimed.

“I am against sending any lethal weapons there,” Milanovic told reporters at a briefing in Petrinja, south of Zagreb. “It’s only prolonging the war. What’s the goal? Carving up Russia? Regime change? They’re talking about partitioning Russia. This is madness.”

..

“This is deeply immoral, what we’re doing, the collective West,” the Croatian president said. “German tanks will just unite the Russians, and China. My goal is to distance ourselves [Croatia] from it, to not be circus dogs. Any kind of participation in this is deadly dangerous.”

Croatian president
Crimea will never again be part of Ukraine

SARAJEVO, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, will never again be part of Ukraine, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic said on Monday in remarks detailing his objection to Zagreb providing military aid to Kyiv.

In December, Croatian lawmakers rejected a proposal that the country join a European Union mission in support of the Ukrainian military, reflecting deep divisions between Milanovic and Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic.

Poor Ukrainian people

[Heracleum Persicum]

.


Feb 2023
Washington Post
why the West should change course on Ukraine



Rand Corp
Avoiding a Long War

In sober terms, the report’s authors, political scientists Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe, spell out the troubling structural factors of the war: Neither Russia nor Ukraine has a chance to secure “absolute victory” in the way they see it, yet both countries feel optimistic about their ability to win out in the longer run and are pessimistic about what may follow a cease-fire or uneasy peace.

Whatever the political rhetoric, uncertainty looms over how long the West can sustain its flows of aid and weapons to Ukraine. A new Pew poll shows that more Americans already believe the United States is giving too much to Ukraine, while the Rand report’s authors point to the obvious reality that an extended war would see more Ukrainian suffering and more economic havoc in Europe.

Then there’s the question of nuclear weapons.

For months, Ukraine and its allies have urged their supporters to ignore Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sporadic attempts at nuclear brinkmanship.

This no Afghan or Iraq war that the other side is helpless .. the other side is as strong if not stronger

A "miscalculation" can have dramatic consequences

[Nonc Hilaire]

Rand Corp. on Ukraine. 01/2023

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/p ... 2510-1.pdf

[Parodite]

A lot of anyone’s guess works in the Rand report. Aside the already "some things are hard to predict, especially the future" fact of reality. The risks are numerous and immense in any scenario and the uncertainties omnipresent. One can make a case for anything, any scenario and make it sound reasonable and even likely. But none are.

I'll guess here saying that things are going very good for Ukraine and NATO, primarily because Putin already lost; the Ukrainians will never tolerate Russian occupation, more than ever want to join EU and NATO to keep the Russian rapist at bay in the future and Putler inspired all other ex-girlfriends/sex slaves like the Baltics to invite forward presence of NATO onto their territory; European NATO members doubled their expenses on defense... and one could go on.

For those having a problem reading Putler: he knows he will never conquer all of Ukraine, perhaps hold on to some dumbass territory and 50/50 chance of keeping Crimea. His main goal is to destroy, mutilate Ukraine as much as possible, turn Ukraine into a crippled non-entity. Why is that? Because a healthy, successful, rich and independent Ukraine embedded in the Western alliance, will be the biggest long-term threat to Putin's mafia regime.

Russians at one point will ask and wonder: why is the Ukraine so rich and successful while Russians are still plagued by never ending paranoia of old and ruled by the latest corrupt tyrant Tzar?

A failed USSR empire, now a failed Russian federation. New generations of Russians will want to leave Russia emigrating to Ukraine, Western Europe, the USA. And no.. they won't apply for visas to Iran or other shitholes.

The strategy of the West imo is to just drain Putin's military with a war of attrition. Until Putin dies or is removed by peers. Which means: the longer this war lasts... the better. Time is Putin's biggest enemy.

This war is Putin's last reality and his shameful legacy. Persona non grata, game over. War crime tribunals are being set up already. He can threaten as much as he wants with strategic nuclear weapons, but using those will only hasten his demise and he knows it.

[Heracleum Persicum]

A lot of anyone’s guess works in the Rand report. Aside the already "some things are hard to predict, especially the future" fact of reality. The risks are numerous and immense in any scenario and the uncertainties omnipresent. One can make a case for anything, any scenario and make it sound reasonable and even likely. But none are.

I'll guess here saying that things are going very good for Ukraine and NATO, primarily because Putin already lost; the Ukrainians will never tolerate Russian occupation, more than ever want to join EU and NATO to keep the Russian rapist at bay in the future and Putler inspired all other ex-girlfriends/sex slaves like the Baltics to invite forward presence of NATO onto their territory; European NATO members doubled their expenses on defense... and one could go on.

For those having a problem reading Putler: he knows he will never conquer all of Ukraine, perhaps hold on to some dumbass territory and 50/50 chance of keeping Crimea. His main goal is to destroy, mutilate Ukraine as much as possible, turn Ukraine into a crippled non-entity. Why is that? Because a healthy, successful, rich and independent Ukraine embedded in the Western alliance, will be the biggest long-term threat to Putin's mafia regime.

Russians at one point will ask and wonder: why is the Ukraine so rich and successful while Russians are still plagued by never ending paranoia of old and ruled by the latest corrupt tyrant Tzar?

A failed USSR empire, now a failed Russian federation. New generations of Russians will want to leave Russia emigrating to Ukraine, Western Europe, the USA. And no.. they won't apply for visas to Iran or other shitholes.

The strategy of the West imo is to just drain Putin's military with a war of attrition. Until Putin dies or is removed by peers. Which means: the longer this war lasts... the better. Time is Putin's biggest enemy.

This war is Putin's last reality and his shameful legacy. Persona non grata, game over. War crime tribunals are being set up already. He can threaten as much as he wants with strategic nuclear weapons, but using those will only hasten his demise and he knows it.

‘Please don’t go on the offensive’


full text of Blinken’s offer

The territorial concessions Blinken is tabling include Crimea, the Donbass, and the Zaporozhye, Kherson “land bridge that connects Crimea and Russia”.

West of the Dnieper River, north around Kharkov, and south around Odessa and Nikolaev, Blinken has tabled for the first time US acceptance of “a demilitarized status” for the Ukraine.

Also, US agreement to restrict the deployment of HIMARS, US and NATO infantry fighting vehicles, and the Abrams and Leopard tanks to a point in western Ukraine from which they can “manoeuvre…as a deterrent against future Russian attacks.”

This is an offer for a tradeoff – partition through a demilitarized zone (DMZ) in the east of the Ukraine in exchange for a halt to the planned Russian offensive destroying the fortifications, rail hubs, troop cantonments, and airfields in the west, between the Polish and Romanian borders, Kiev and Lvov, and an outcome Blinken proposes for both sides to call “a just and durable peace that upholds Ukraine’s territorial integrity”.

Also in the proposed Blinken deal there is the offer of a direct US-Russian agreement on “an eventual postwar military balance”; “no World War III”; and no Ukrainian membership of NATO with “security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5.”

Blinken has also told the Washington Post to announce the US will respect “Putin’s tripwire for nuclear escalation”, and accept the Russian “reserve force includ[ing] strategic bombers, certain precision-guided weapons and, of course, tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.”

President Putin has offered a hint of the Russian reply he discussed with the Stavka and the Security Council last week.

Putin told a meeting with university students on Wednesday, hours after Blinken’s publication. “I think that people like you,” the president said, “most clearly and most accurately understand the need for what Russia is now doing to support our citizens in these territories, including Lugansk, Donetsk, the Donbass area as a whole, and Kherson and Zaporozhye. The goal, as I have explained many times, is primarily to protect the people and Russia from the threats that they are trying to create for us in our own historical territories that are adjacent to us. We cannot allow this. So, it is extremely important when young people like you defend the interests of their small and large Motherland with arms in their hands and do so consciously.”

Ukraine thrown under the buss .. interesting to see how Zelenskyy will explain this to all those killed

[noddy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgp6zRPsQv4

qgp6zRPsQv4

[Heracleum Persicum]

Hmmm .. Tim Sebastian .. not seen him since long time (since he in BBC) .. aged a lot

Ukraine war means to put a Stop to NATO .. NATO will be out of Business in KavKaz, Central Asia , Middle East and beyond

NATO taking care only to European military security for Western and (part of) Eastern Europe .. FULL STOP

[Typhoon]

The Grauniad | The Ukraine repair shop: where Russian tanks go to change sides

Western supplies of Leopards and Challengers have made the news, but the biggest donor is the enemy

[Apollonius]

Some interesting views from David P. Goldman, much of it about Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/davidpgoldman




Our old friend BerzerkSavant responds:

Some times, all you have left is “I told you so”.

To which Goldman replies:

Being a paid-in member of the Blob means never having to say you're sorry. The same miscreants who bungled Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria are in charge, with the same ideological fixation on End-of-History export of democracy. No consequences for failure.

[Nonc Hilaire]

A simple personal promise sufficed to relieve Zelensky.

A good metric of the strong alliance between Putin and Israel.

[Typhoon]

Some interesting views from David P. Goldman, much of it about Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/davidpgoldman




Our old friend BerzerkSavant responds:

Some times, all you have left is “I told you so”.

To which Goldman replies:

Being a paid-in member of the Blob means never having to say you're sorry. The same miscreants who bungled Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria are in charge, with the same ideological fixation on End-of-History export of democracy. No consequences for failure.

Pundit Spenglerman knows about military strategy and geopolitics like he demonstrably knows about quantum mechanics, i.e., bupkes.

To be fair, that includes most Western pundits, including the CIA who completely missed the collapse of the former Soviet Union.
[And the fall of the Shah or Iran, if memory serves.]

The experts regarding the region are the Balts and the Poles.

[Heracleum Persicum]

.

Some don't really see what really happened with Russia incursion into Ukraine.

This changed the world

No matter what, West will be the loser

The more West arms Ukraine and tried to squeeze Russia, the bigger western loss will be in the "New world Order" emerging

The story is :


West made the mistake to use western dominance in economic and political tools and powers, sanctions, Dollar, etc , to try to brake legitimately rising nations, like Iran.

That worked when all the world was in Western boat, Russia, China, Africa, Latin America, India

This is when West "over played" it's hand .. thinking same can be done to China, Russia, India, Africa, Latin America

Russian incursion into Ukraine overthrow Western Power in the world .. what was called "World Order"

West made those rules called "World Order" and obliged all nations to follow and operate within those rules.

Those who did not accept those set rules and demanded a "New World Order" , they were, as Trump and Bolden said on TV, their bones were crashed .. West made sure Iran did not get any Covid-19 vaccine.

Now, in Iran, 1 Covid-19 death every other day, when at the same time there was 300 covid-19 death yesterday in Japan


Putin and Xi and mad mullahs and Modi and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or South Africa etc etc , they already OPERATING in the "new World Order" , building their own SWIFT and Credit/bank cards, and economic and financial system

We already in a 2 Pollar world

West sanctioning China and Russia and Iran is excellent news for these nations as they now will develop all technologies and tools themselves

Western GDP is $ 47 Trillion .. non Western countries GDP is $ 58 Trillion

In 10 yrs , probably , Western GDP will be 1/3 of world GDP

At that time, West could be sanctioned itself

That is why, Europe, France and Germany, flow to see Xi

Brits, as always, will play with US against Europe .. and probably lose at the end

Real WINNERS of all this, in the "New World Order" , will be nations like India, Iran, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa etc

[Typhoon]

Sure. The nations that could not organize an escape from a wet paper bag.

Any day now . . .

[Parodite]

I wonder why it is that all the time things happen that nobody predicted. It makes casinos very popular. Usually only the owners of casinos make good money however.

Goldman believes he is in a similar special position and virtually "owns" de euro-pagan-christian casino scape. I suspect however he is just as any addict gambler, betting against the final divine dices thrown. Outsmarting reality aint easy; all bets are off.

[Heracleum Persicum]

I wonder why it is that all the time things happen that nobody predicted. It makes casinos very popular. Usually only the owners of casinos make good money however.

Goldman believes he is in a similar special position and virtually "owns" de euro-pagan-christian casino scape. I suspect however he is just as any addict gambler, betting against the final divine dices thrown. Outsmarting reality aint easy; all bets are off.

Sometimes I read past articles by big shot political analysts, from NYT , WSJ or FT (and outside Iran so called opposition)

One wonders how blind they were to what was happening, after knowing the fact now and seeing how things turned out

Did those who "wonder why it is that all the time things happen that nobody predicted" not discovered why so ?

West not realizing the "reality" .. again and again, fallin into "wishful thinking"

[Typhoon]

I wonder why it is that all the time things happen that nobody predicted. It makes casinos very popular. Usually only the owners of casinos make good money however.

Goldman believes he is in a similar special position and virtually "owns" de euro-pagan-christian casino scape. I suspect however he is just as any addict gambler, betting against the final divine dices thrown. Outsmarting reality aint easy; all bets are off.

Sometimes I read past articles by big shot political analysts, from NYT , WSJ or FT (and outside Iran so called opposition)

One wonders how blind they were to what was happening, after knowing the fact now and seeing how things turned out

Did those who "wonder why it is that all the time things happen that nobody predicted" not discovered why so ?

West not realizing the "reality" .. again and again, fallin into "wishful thinking"

We are most fortunate that we have you, mini-Spengler, to enlighten us as to what is "really going on" .

[Heracleum Persicum]

I wonder why it is that all the time things happen that nobody predicted. It makes casinos very popular. Usually only the owners of casinos make good money however.

Goldman believes he is in a similar special position and virtually "owns" de euro-pagan-christian casino scape. I suspect however he is just as any addict gambler, betting against the final divine dices thrown. Outsmarting reality aint easy; all bets are off.

Sometimes I read past articles by big shot political analysts, from NYT , WSJ or FT (and outside Iran so called opposition)

One wonders how blind they were to what was happening, after knowing the fact now and seeing how things turned out

Did those who "wonder why it is that all the time things happen that nobody predicted" not discovered why so ?

West not realizing the "reality" .. again and again, fallin into "wishful thinking"

We are most fortunate that we have you, mini-Spengler, to enlighten us as to what is "really going on" .

Appreciate

On the other hand, Why West does not let go of past policies and start competing with the emerging powers in technology, economy, humanity, culture and civilization.

Let next generations judge who better or worst.

West has a lot to offer and to be learned from , so has East

Imagine you on the moon and looking on earth, can you see any differences between parts of Planet Earth ?

bani adam .jpeg (225.32 KiB) Viewed 6848 times

There no reason for animosity .. West still ahead .. let the world compete , will be good for all
.

[noddy]

Some interesting views from David P. Goldman, much of it about Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/davidpgoldman




Our old friend BerzerkSavant responds:

Some times, all you have left is “I told you so”.

To which Goldman replies:

Being a paid-in member of the Blob means never having to say you're sorry. The same miscreants who bungled Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria are in charge, with the same ideological fixation on End-of-History export of democracy. No consequences for failure.

good to see he is alive and grumping.

[Heracleum Persicum]

.

Seymour Hersh
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret
until now


mad mullahs laughing @ Olaf Scholz

[Parodite]

Konstantin Kisin & Freddie Sayers: How far should Western support in Ukraine go?


SNBLYDzzM2I

[noddy]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... on-donbas/

Russia prepares 2,000 tanks and 300,000 troops for ‘huge invasion’ in Donbas
The attack is expected to coincide with the one-year anniversary of Vladimir Putin's launch of the war in Ukraine on February 24

[Parodite]

What seems to escape the Russian strategists: once you destroyed and conquered a by then rubblelized and deserted Ukrainian city, village or area.. you will be the next sitting ducks ready to be artillery shell bombed from the air. Nobody wants those Russian sitting ducks there.. so they better move underground, make city bunkers and enjoy life with artificial sun light and enough vodka to survive the day.

[Heracleum Persicum]

.

Maia Sandu (born 24 May 1972), Moldovan President since 24 December 2020, resigned

Day's ago she had met Eu officials, EU wooing her for another "free lunch promise" a la Ukraine.

Moldova.jpeg (240.22 KiB) Viewed 6751 times

This afternoon I met @ eucopresident for a frank and constructive discussion. I’d like to thank EU MS for their trust and openness to support me and my country’s democratic future and economic recovery.

Back at home, she was pushed out, forced to resign


https://www.voanews.com/a/moldova-prime ... 57471.html

[Apollonius]

From exactly one year ago today:

The crisis in Ukraine is not about Ukraine. It's about Germany - Mike Whitney, The Unz Review, 11 February 2022
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-crisis ... t-germany/

“The primordial interest of the United States, over which for centuries we have fought wars– the First, the Second and Cold Wars– has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us. And to make sure that that doesn’t happen.” George Friedman, STRATFOR CEO at The Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs

The Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with Ukraine. It’s about Germany and, in particular, a pipeline that connects Germany to Russia called Nord Stream 2. Washington sees the pipeline as a threat to its primacy in Europe and has tried to sabotage the project at every turn. Even so, Nord Stream has pushed ahead and is now fully-operational and ready-to-go. Once German regulators provide the final certification, the gas deliveries will begin. German homeowners and businesses will have a reliable source of clean and inexpensive energy while Russia will see a significant boost to their gas revenues. It’s a win-win situation for both parties.

The US Foreign Policy establishment is not happy about these developments. They don’t want Germany to become more dependent on Russian gas because commerce builds trust and trust leads to the expansion of trade. As relations grow warmer, more trade barriers are lifted, regulations are eased, travel and tourism increase, and a new security architecture evolves. In a world where Germany and Russia are friends and trading partners, there is no need for US military bases, no need for expensive US-made weapons and missile systems, and no need for NATO. There’s also no need to transact energy deals in US Dollars or to stockpile US Treasuries to balance accounts. Transactions between business partners can be conducted in their own currencies which is bound to precipitate a sharp decline in the value of the dollar and a dramatic shift in economic power. This is why the Biden administration opposes Nord Stream. It’s not just a pipeline, it’s a window into the future; a future in which Europe and Asia are drawn closer together into a massive free trade zone that increases their mutual power and prosperity while leaving the US on the outside looking in. Warmer relations between Germany and Russia signal an end to the “unipolar” world order the US has overseen for the last 75 years. A German-Russo alliance threatens to hasten the decline of the Superpower that is presently inching closer to the abyss. This is why Washington is determined to do everything it can to sabotage Nord Stream and keep Germany within its orbit. It’s a matter of survival.