Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

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Hoosiernorm
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Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Hoosiernorm »

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NF12Ak02.html
"The great and still ongoing declines in fertility that are sweeping through the Muslim world most assuredly qualify as a "revolution" - a quiet revolution, to be sure - but a revolution in which hundreds of millions of adults are already participating: and one which stands to transform the future," writes demographer Nicholas Eberstadt in the June 2012 issue of Policy Review, the journal of Stanford University's Hoover Institution. [1]

Eberstadt and co-author Apoorva Shah conclude, "The remarkable fertility declines [sic] now unfolding throughout the Muslim world is one of the most important demographic developments in our era. Yet it has been 'hiding in plain sight' - that is to say, it has somehow gone unrecognized and overlooked by all but a handful of observers, even by specialists in the realm of population studies. Needless to say, such an oversight is more than passing strange, and we do not propose to account for it here."
The Stanford policy paper

http://www.hoover.org/publications/poli ... cle/118261
David P. Goldman’s How Civilizations Die (And Why Islam Is Dying Too) (Regnery, 2011). The former is a translation of a 2007 study by two noted French demographers; the latter, a wide-ranging and provocative exposition by an American public intellectual. Neither work has to date received the readership it deserves.
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Ibrahim »

:roll:


Everywhere women begin to have access to contraceptives birthrates decline. If the birthrates in the US (thanks to poor uneducated people) and Israel (thanks to government-funded ultra-Orthodox lunatics) are slightly higher than other developed nations it is a sign of their superiority. If birthrates in Muslim nations are lowering due to increased access to methods of family planning, this is a sign of their inferiority and something something pagan death worship something. The birthrates of black Africans of any religion are of course not part of the equation at all and beneath Spengler's consideration.





Hoosier, your thread title is misleading. There are very real revolutions happening in the Arab world, with perhaps more ventured by the participants than Spengler's co-option of the term for yet another rehash is tribal bloodline worship and shaky understanding of demographics.
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Azrael »

Ibrahim wrote::roll:


Everywhere women begin to have access to contraceptives birthrates decline. If the birthrates in the US (thanks to poor uneducated people) and Israel (thanks to government-funded ultra-Orthodox lunatics) are slightly higher than other developed nations it is a sign of their superiority. If birthrates in Muslim nations are lowering due to increased access to methods of family planning, this is a sign of their inferiority and something something pagan death worship something. The birthrates of black Africans of any religion are of course not part of the equation at all and beneath Spengler's consideration.
You have Spengler pegged.



Hoosier, your thread title is misleading. There are very real revolutions happening in the Arab world, with perhaps more ventured by the participants than Spengler's co-option of the term for yet another rehash is tribal bloodline worship and shaky understanding of demographics.
In his defense, the title was tongue-in-cheek and he was using and making fun of Spengler's terminology.
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Ibrahim »

Azrael wrote:In his defense, the title was tongue-in-cheek and he was using and making fun of Spengler's terminology.
I have been meaning to be more critical of Spengler's terminology....
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Milo »

Spengler is "dead" right.

Take away the oil from the ME, as geology is inevitably doing, and you have very little left.

The perfect storm is on the way. There are several reasons for this:

In the KSA a tidal wave of old people is starting to crash into their highly corrupt and incompetent social service structure. The wave stretches for decades. But there are a lot fewer young people to make up for the old ones at the top.

http://goo.gl/kqMcR

This is happening as oil extraction is becoming much more costly.

http://goo.gl/ighcP

And their domestic energy demand is soaring, starving them for hard currency from exports.

http://goo.gl/HmkAP

The KSA props up the entire Sunni Islamic world, including the parts of it in non-Islamic countries. Without Saudi Arabian patronage, the entire Sunni Islamic world faces economic collapse. The Shia have Iran's patronage, Iran is no Switzerland, but it's at least not a complete basket case, like pretty well every other ME country. But overall, it looks pretty hopeless for the Islamic world.

Oh yes, Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia. Well, they have a shot at coming out without a complete breakdown. But none of them are model countries by a long shot; little margin for error, and many pitfalls. When things really start hitting the fan, they are as likely to retreat to savagery as rise to secularism.

This can't be stopped; all we can do is save civilization by stepping back from it. Obama can't say he is doing this in public but I think that's what he's been doing with all his withdrawals: Making speeches to flatter the clowns that run these countries costs nothing, while the important policy changes to keep us back from the riptide of Islamic collapse is damn smart. Of course Spengie can't say that, even if he knows it.
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Ibrahim »

Milo wrote:Spengler is "dead" right.

Who was saying something about various racist pseudo-intellectuals writing specifically to flatter a niche market of gullible chumps? Anyway....


Take away the oil from the ME, as geology is inevitably doing, and you have very little left.
Well, other than the people living there.


In the KSA a tidal wave of old people is starting to crash into their highly corrupt and incompetent social service structure. The wave stretches for decades. But there are a lot fewer young people to make up for the old ones at the top.
I kind of wish the KSA would collapse, but they've been spending all of their drug money (pardon me, petrodollars) investing in real estate and investment banks all over the world (and buying Congressmen). Those pricks have a good shot of turning unto Zug with less skiing.

This is happening as oil extraction is becoming much more costly.
Higher overhead in oil extraction punishes oil consumers even more than oil producers. It also contributes to inflation generally by driving up the cost and delivery of manufactured goods and foodstuffs. This will harm, for example, the weakened US consumer economy before it turns any Saudi royals out into the streets. Moreover, demographics don't matter to them since they import workers from other countries, pay them nothing, and gun them down with American-made weapons held by American-trained internal security forces when they rise up.


And their domestic energy demand is soaring, starving them for hard currency from exports.
This one is just precious.


The KSA props up the entire Sunni Islamic world, including the parts of it in non-Islamic countries. Without Saudi Arabian patronage, the entire Sunni Islamic world faces economic collapse.
Nonsensical claim. Primarily what Saudi money props up is Wahhabi mosques, which most people don't even like. The other thing you could be referring to is specific incidents of foreign aid during emergiencies, though as we've established the Saudis aren't going broke anytime soon.


The Shia have Iran's patronage, Iran is no Switzerland, but it's at least not a complete basket case, like pretty well every other ME country. But overall, it looks pretty hopeless for the Islamic world.
Further nonsense.


Oh yes, Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia. Well, they have a shot at coming out without a complete breakdown. But none of them are model countries by a long shot; little margin for error, and many pitfalls. When things really start hitting the fan, they are as likely to retreat to savagery as rise to secularism.
Given how vague this claim is, and how completely false your other claims are, I think I'll let this one pass until you make it more specific. You seem to be parroting Spengler/Spencer's vague hatred of several Islamic countries they don't think they can lobby the US or Israel into attacking.




This can't be stopped; all we can do is save civilization by stepping back from it.
Who is "we?" You are not part of the civilized world.

Obama can't say he is doing this in public but I think that's what he's been doing with all his withdrawals:
:lol: He's increasing the number of foreign entanglements the US is engaged in. So before you tell us what a US President is secretly planning, maybe get up to speed on what is actually happening first.

Making speeches to flatter the clowns that run these countries
Which "clowns" in which countries are you referring to specifically? Whom did Obama address and what did he say? This sounds like a generic slur to me, not based on any actual information.

while the important policy changes to keep us back from the riptide of Islamic collapse is damn smart.
Again, your false claims are contrary to all established facts. The US is steadily increasing its involvement in the Middle East, and the failure of the US to regulate its own financial industry cause the greatest global economic catastrophe in recent memory.



Of course Spengie can't say that, even if he knows it.
Spengler says much and knows little. Though in his defense he made less glaring errors in his terrible essay than you did in this post.
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Test-Mullah Krekar Right on Muslim Mosquitos=Spengler wrong?

Post by monster_gardener »

Thank you Very Much for the thread, HoosierNorm.

Have a question/test case for Goldman Spengler's contention that being a Muslim is the big factor in the population rate decline......... But don't have time to research it thoroughly so am tossing it out for anyone else until I do........

What is the population rate increase for Muslims in Western Countries..........

Especially refugee Muslims on welfare in places like Sweden.......

I remember a Mullah Krekar in Sweden IIRC boasting that the Muslims there were breeding like mosquitoes some years ago.... remembering an article about it in late 2007 ..........

If Krekar is correct........... then Spengler is wrong............

If Krekar is right, could be that Muslims might be quite happy to breed like mosquitoes if they can do it at their ease on jizya/welfare from Infidel fools in Europe............

Remembering.......Mark Steyn wrote an article about Krekar ........and the self described potty mouthed Jim Henley of Unqualified Offerings got part of his rear end handed to him when little Rhode Island Red * :wink: Henley ;) laid an egg ;) and jumped on Steyn, calling Steyn a "racist douche" bag, for what Mullah Krekar had said....... Henley apparently wasn't paying attention to the quote marks and went on brain dead auto pilot accusing Steyn of being a racist....

http://highclearing.com/index.php/archi ... 12/08/7517

Sounds familar doesn't it? :wink: ........... Who here is like that??? ............ Hair trigger finger on charging racism...........

Henley did do a half hearted apology for not getting the quotes right but refused to retract the "racist douchebag" insult...

But I digress.........

Found it......... Here is the Krekar quote ........
We're the ones who will change you," the Norwegian imam Mullah Krekar told the Oslo newspaper Dagbladet in 2006. "Just look at the development within Europe, where the number of Muslims is expanding like mosquitoes. Every Western woman in the EU is producing an average of 1.4 children. Every Muslim woman in the same countries is producing 3.5 children." As he summed it up: "Our way of thinking will prove more powerful than yours."
http://www.macleans.ca/article.jsp?cont ... 898&source


But as I said earlier...... a thorough investigation...... Krekar might be wrong.......

IIRC Muslims sometimes like to play games with population data in places like Gaza.........

IIRC they like to report the population to be higher......... for some strange reason........ ;) :lol:

Goldman Spengler could be right after all......... 8-)

Just wikied Krekar.. My goodness.. He seems quite the Bad Boy! ;) .. A Kurd ;) who wants his Way :twisted: with us/uz Infidels!

I did get one thing wrong...... It's Norway.... not Sweden...I must have been remembering all the nastiness reported from the Malmo's Muslim welfare refugee neighborHOODs :wink: :twisted:

Mullah Krekar (Kurdish:مهلا کرێکار), (born Najmuddin Faraj Ahmad July 7, 1956) is a Kurdish Sunni Islamist Islamic scholar[1] who came to Norway as a refugee from northern Iraq in 1991. His wife and four children have Norwegian citizenship, but not Krekar himself. He speaks Kurdish, Arabic, Persian, Norwegian, and English.[citation needed]

Krekar was the original leader of the Islamist armed group Ansar al-Islam, which was set up and commenced operations in Kurdistan while he had refugee status in Norway. Krekar claims, however, not to have had foreknowledge of the various terrorist attacks performed by the group he was leading. Since February 2003 he has an expulsion order against him, which is suspended pending Iraqi government guarantees that he will not face torture or execution. Norway is committed to international treaties which prohibit the expulsion of an individual without such a guarantee.[2]

Authorities in the Kurdistan Regional Government have repeatedly asked for Ahmad ("Krekar") to be extradited from Norway. The death penalty remains on the books in the Kurdistan region. Most death sentences have been changed into life sentences since the Kurdistanian authorities took power in 1992, the exception being that eleven alleged members of Ansar al-Islam were hanged in the regional capital of Arbil in October 2006. He has as of 8 December 2006 been on the UN terror list,[3] and as of 8 November 2007 been judged by the High Court of Norway as a "danger to national security".[4]

On March 26, 2012 he was sentenced to 5 years in prison for making repeated death threats against Norwegian politicians and other persons if they pursued certain civil actions against him. He has appealed this prison sentence. The next day, March 27, 2012, he was arrested by the PST and Norwegian Police and taken into protective custody and incarceration. This occurred after certain additional statements of a threatening nature were linked to him, suggesting that others might take retaliatory actions against Norwegians if his civil prison sentence were implemented.[5]
In November 2009 controversy erupted when Krekar in an interview with the Arab television channel al-Hiwar said he wanted to establish a new Islamic Caliphate, claiming that for Jihadists there is no legitimate state, with the exception of the Taliban-led Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. For the Islamic "super-state" he wanted Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida-top Ayman al-Zawahiri or Hizb-e Islami-founder Gulbuddin Hekmatyar as leader, and other radical Islamists as leader, citing for instance Gulbuddin Hekmatyar or Ayman Al-Zawahiri as the foreign minister.[6] As a result the Progress Party continued their call for the imprisonment of Krekar,[7] and the Labour Party stated for the first time they would form a new task force which would examine if people officially labeled as "danger to national security" (as Krekar is) could be imprisoned.[8

Azzam Tamimi, a supporter of Hamas, who had done the interview with Krekar, also said that he felt Krekar had been treated badly in Norway.[9]
Compared to how Krekar would have been treated in Kurdistan??...........

Again I digress.........


*Don't know if Henley is from Rhode Island but AIUI he is a left/Red Libertarian and it goes with the fowl :wink: oops I mean foul accusation he made against Steyn.

For any urbane :wink: chicken farmers here........

Image
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhode_Island_Red
Last edited by monster_gardener on Tue Jun 12, 2012 1:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Mr. Perfect »

So I guess there are no factual refutations of anything Spengler said here.
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3.5 Muslim Invader Vikings..........

Post by monster_gardener »

Mr. Perfect wrote:So I guess there are no factual refutations of anything Spengler said here.
Thank you Very Much for your reply, Mr. Perfect.

As of this point, yes....... Unless you are willing to accept Mullah Krekar's figure of 3.5 children per Muslim Invader :wink: oops I mean Immigrant/Refugee Female vs. 1.4 children per Euro Female Dhimmi :wink: oops I mean Victim :wink: oops I mean Jizya :wink: oops I mean Tax payer*.......

Which Mark Steyn quotes.........

FWIW anecdotely Krekar's figure is pretty good... He has sired 4 Muslim Vikings :shock: ... When do the raids begin... :twisted: Last it was Odin..... this time the Moon God

*except for the Greeks who AIUI don't pay taxes......... :o :shock: :lol:
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Re: 3.5 Muslim Invader Vikings..........

Post by Typhoon »

monster_gardener wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:So I guess there are no factual refutations of anything Spengler said here.
Thank you Very Much for your reply, Mr. Perfect.

As of this point, yes....... Unless you are willing to accept Mullah Krekar's figure of 3.5 children per Muslim Invader :wink: oops I mean Immigrant/Refugee Female vs. 1.4 children per Euro Female Dhimmi :wink: oops I mean Victim :wink: oops I mean Jizya :wink: oops I mean Tax payer*.......

Which Mark Steyn quotes.........

FWIW anecdotely Krekar's figure is pretty good... He has sired 4 Muslim Vikings :shock: ... When do the raids begin... :twisted: Last it was Odin..... this time the Moon God

*except for the Greeks who AIUI don't pay taxes......... :o :shock: :lol:
Attempting to apply induction and extrapolate from n = 1 to n = 2, 3, 4, . . . only makes sense in mathematics.
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Re: 3.5 Muslim Invader Vikings..........

Post by monster_gardener »

Typhoon wrote:
monster_gardener wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:So I guess there are no factual refutations of anything Spengler said here.
Thank you Very Much for your reply, Mr. Perfect.

As of this point, yes....... Unless you are willing to accept Mullah Krekar's figure of 3.5 children per Muslim Invader :wink: oops I mean Immigrant/Refugee Female vs. 1.4 children per Euro Female Dhimmi :wink: oops I mean Victim :wink: oops I mean Jizya :wink: oops I mean Tax payer*.......

Which Mark Steyn quotes.........

FWIW anecdotely Krekar's figure is pretty good... He has sired 4 Muslim Vikings :shock: ... When do the raids begin... :twisted: Last it was Odin..... this time the Moon God :twisted:

*except for the Greeks who AIUI don't pay taxes......... :o :shock: :lol:
Attempting to apply induction and extrapolate from n = 1 to n = 2, 3, 4, . . . only makes sense in mathematics.
Thank you VERY Much for your reply, Typhoon.

Quite Right........

As I said, anecdotally.........
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Typhoon »

Milo wrote:Spengler is "dead" right.

Take away the oil from the ME, as geology is inevitably doing, and you have very little left.
That oil will in all probability long outlast you and Spenglerman.
Milo wrote:The perfect storm is on the way. There are several reasons for this:

In the KSA a tidal wave of old people is starting to crash into their highly corrupt and incompetent social service structure. The wave stretches for decades. But there are a lot fewer young people to make up for the old ones at the top.

http://goo.gl/kqMcR
Perhaps, however your link does not demonstrate this claim.

One needs an age distribution plot with 1 year resolution.
Milo wrote:This is happening as oil extraction is becoming much more costly.

http://goo.gl/ighcP
And oil extraction technology improves.

Without the key number of production cost per barrel of oil, such claims are specious.
Milo wrote:And their domestic energy demand is soaring, starving them for hard currency from exports.

http://goo.gl/HmkAP
To put KSA generation capacity in perspective:

KSA: 30 GW

USA: 1137 GW

The KSA is in no danger of consuming it's own production.

The proper unit of measure should be power in GWh.
Milo wrote: The KSA props up the entire Sunni Islamic world, including the parts of it in non-Islamic countries. Without Saudi Arabian patronage, the entire Sunni Islamic world faces economic collapse. The Shia have Iran's patronage, Iran is no Switzerland, but it's at least not a complete basket case, like pretty well every other ME country. But overall, it looks pretty hopeless for the Islamic world.
No. What the KSA does prop up is the trouble making Wahabists.

I would love to see the House of Saud flushed out to sea, but I won't hold my breath. Note that they have done a remarkable job of avoiding any Arab Spring.
Milo wrote:Oh yes, Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia. Well, they have a shot at coming out without a complete breakdown. But none of them are model countries by a long shot; little margin for error, and many pitfalls. When things really start hitting the fan, they are as likely to retreat to savagery as rise to secularism.
Turkey is currently the most fastest growing economy in Europe and Indonesia is on a growth tear.
Milo wrote:This can't be stopped; all we can do is save civilization by stepping back from it. Obama can't say he is doing this in public but I think that's what he's been doing with all his withdrawals: Making speeches to flatter the clowns that run these countries costs nothing, while the important policy changes to keep us back from the riptide of Islamic collapse is damn smart. Of course Spengie can't say that, even if he knows it.
Wishful thinking may satisfy some wants and needs, but self delusion is a poor foundation for any rational policy. The hope for a grand collapse and reset as a solution to any problem, real or imagined, seems to be a very [N] American phenomena.
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by AzariLoveIran »

.


Spengler .. David Goldman .. (NYT) Thomas L. Friedman , or that durian Safire and a few other Zionist

they all FAKE .. on a mission to fool American Joe .. special agent


if David and others were not fake, they would annalise, comment, factually report in the sense of that AT article what is happening in Arab land : "Salafisation" of traditional Sunni Islam - a Kalifa

Seems what is happening in Arab world not as important as Muslim woman birth rate dropping because Islam not compatible with Modernity garbage & rubbish David drumming up since so many years ? ?

or that clown "George Friedman" from Strartfor ! ! .. either he does not know what really going on in Arab land or he intentionally leading things to wrong conclusion.

what does it mean ?

meaning there is an orchestrated dis & misinformation campaign to fool Joe



.
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Re: 3.5 Muslim Invader Vikings..........

Post by Milo »

monster_gardener wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:So I guess there are no factual refutations of anything Spengler said here.
Thank you Very Much for your reply, Mr. Perfect.

As of this point, yes....... Unless you are willing to accept Mullah Krekar's figure of 3.5 children per Muslim Invader :wink: oops I mean Immigrant/Refugee Female vs. 1.4 children per Euro Female Dhimmi :wink: oops I mean Victim :wink: oops I mean Jizya :wink: oops I mean Tax payer*.......

Which Mark Steyn quotes.........

FWIW anecdotely Krekar's figure is pretty good... He has sired 4 Muslim Vikings :shock: ... When do the raids begin... :twisted: Last it was Odin..... this time the Moon God

*except for the Greeks who AIUI don't pay taxes......... :o :shock: :lol:
My personal experience is that it's lucky to survive one generation. The old fatwa that Muslims could not live permanently in non-Islamic countries was likely quite wise.
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Milo »

Typhoon wrote:
Milo wrote:Spengler is "dead" right.

Take away the oil from the ME, as geology is inevitably doing, and you have very little left.
That oil will in all probability long outlast you and Spenglerman.
Milo wrote:The perfect storm is on the way. There are several reasons for this:

In the KSA a tidal wave of old people is starting to crash into their highly corrupt and incompetent social service structure. The wave stretches for decades. But there are a lot fewer young people to make up for the old ones at the top.

http://goo.gl/kqMcR
Perhaps, however your link does not demonstrate this claim.

One needs an age distribution plot with 1 year resolution.
Milo wrote:This is happening as oil extraction is becoming much more costly.

http://goo.gl/ighcP
And oil extraction technology improves.

Without the key number of production cost per barrel of oil, such claims are specious.
Milo wrote:And their domestic energy demand is soaring, starving them for hard currency from exports.

http://goo.gl/HmkAP
To put KSA generation capacity in perspective:

KSA: 30 GW

USA: 1137 GW

The KSA is in no danger of consuming it's own production.

The proper unit of measure should be power in GWh.
Milo wrote: The KSA props up the entire Sunni Islamic world, including the parts of it in non-Islamic countries. Without Saudi Arabian patronage, the entire Sunni Islamic world faces economic collapse. The Shia have Iran's patronage, Iran is no Switzerland, but it's at least not a complete basket case, like pretty well every other ME country. But overall, it looks pretty hopeless for the Islamic world.
No. What the KSA does prop up is the trouble making Wahabists.

I would love to see the House of Saud flushed out to sea, but I won't hold my breath. Note that they have done a remarkable job of avoiding any Arab Spring.
Milo wrote:Oh yes, Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia. Well, they have a shot at coming out without a complete breakdown. But none of them are model countries by a long shot; little margin for error, and many pitfalls. When things really start hitting the fan, they are as likely to retreat to savagery as rise to secularism.
Turkey is currently the most fastest growing economy in Europe and Indonesia is on a growth tear.
Milo wrote:This can't be stopped; all we can do is save civilization by stepping back from it. Obama can't say he is doing this in public but I think that's what he's been doing with all his withdrawals: Making speeches to flatter the clowns that run these countries costs nothing, while the important policy changes to keep us back from the riptide of Islamic collapse is damn smart. Of course Spengie can't say that, even if he knows it.
Wishful thinking may satisfy some wants and needs, but self delusion is a poor foundation for any rational policy. The hope for a grand collapse and reset as a solution to any problem, real or imagined, seems to be a very [N] American phenomena.
The above reminds me of what was said right up until the Berlin wall fell and thousands of statutes of communist heroes were broken up for scrap. Who's communist today?
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Ibrahim »

Milo wrote:The above reminds me of what was said right up until the Berlin wall fell and thousands of statutes of communist heroes were broken up for scrap.
:lol:

I heard that the Soviet system was screwed and doomed to fail every day between my birth and it's collapse.
You're confusing the 1980's and the 1950's. Oh, you're also confusing a centralized empire-cum-police-state with dozens of autonomous nations across several continents, consisting of a sixth of the world's population.

Don't hold your breath. Or do.



Who's communist today?
Aside from the C.C.P.?
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Azrael »

Milo's logical reasoning is pretty obvious:

Soviet Union = Evil
Saudi Arabia = Evil
therefore Soviet Union = Saudi Arabia

Who can argue with such logic?
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Milo »

Azrael wrote:Milo's logical reasoning is pretty obvious:

Soviet Union = Evil
Saudi Arabia = Evil
therefore Soviet Union = Saudi Arabia

Who can argue with such logic?
It won't be the first time that I told you that you're way above that.

But hey, you and I have been at it for a few years, in a few more you'll see what I mean, or I'm wrong.
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Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Typhoon »

Milo wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Milo wrote:Spengler is "dead" right.

Take away the oil from the ME, as geology is inevitably doing, and you have very little left.
That oil will in all probability long outlast you and Spenglerman.
Milo wrote:The perfect storm is on the way. There are several reasons for this:

In the KSA a tidal wave of old people is starting to crash into their highly corrupt and incompetent social service structure. The wave stretches for decades. But there are a lot fewer young people to make up for the old ones at the top.

http://goo.gl/kqMcR
Perhaps, however your link does not demonstrate this claim.

One needs an age distribution plot with 1 year resolution.
Milo wrote:This is happening as oil extraction is becoming much more costly.

http://goo.gl/ighcP
And oil extraction technology improves.

Without the key number of production cost per barrel of oil, such claims are specious.
Milo wrote:And their domestic energy demand is soaring, starving them for hard currency from exports.

http://goo.gl/HmkAP
To put KSA generation capacity in perspective:

KSA: 30 GW

USA: 1137 GW

The KSA is in no danger of consuming it's own production.

The proper unit of measure should be power in GWh.
Milo wrote: The KSA props up the entire Sunni Islamic world, including the parts of it in non-Islamic countries. Without Saudi Arabian patronage, the entire Sunni Islamic world faces economic collapse. The Shia have Iran's patronage, Iran is no Switzerland, but it's at least not a complete basket case, like pretty well every other ME country. But overall, it looks pretty hopeless for the Islamic world.
No. What the KSA does prop up is the trouble making Wahabists.

I would love to see the House of Saud flushed out to sea, but I won't hold my breath. Note that they have done a remarkable job of avoiding any Arab Spring.
Milo wrote:Oh yes, Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia. Well, they have a shot at coming out without a complete breakdown. But none of them are model countries by a long shot; little margin for error, and many pitfalls. When things really start hitting the fan, they are as likely to retreat to savagery as rise to secularism.
Turkey is currently the most fastest growing economy in Europe and Indonesia is on a growth tear.
Milo wrote:This can't be stopped; all we can do is save civilization by stepping back from it. Obama can't say he is doing this in public but I think that's what he's been doing with all his withdrawals: Making speeches to flatter the clowns that run these countries costs nothing, while the important policy changes to keep us back from the riptide of Islamic collapse is damn smart. Of course Spengie can't say that, even if he knows it.
Wishful thinking may satisfy some wants and needs, but self delusion is a poor foundation for any rational policy. The hope for a grand collapse and reset as a solution to any problem, real or imagined, seems to be a very [N] American phenomena.
The above reminds me of what was said right up until the Berlin wall fell and thousands of statutes of communist heroes were broken up for scrap. Who's communist today?
The Soviet Union existed from some 70 years - less than a century.

Islam has existed for some 14 centuries.

Any more insightful analogies to share?
May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
Ibrahim
Posts: 6524
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 2:06 am

Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Ibrahim »

Milo wrote:
Azrael wrote:Milo's logical reasoning is pretty obvious:

Soviet Union = Evil
Saudi Arabia = Evil
therefore Soviet Union = Saudi Arabia

Who can argue with such logic?
It won't be the first time that I told you that you're way above that.
Yes, I think you were decrying amateur opinions shortly before you declared that there was no mention of Mecca in the Quran. How did that turn out for you?



But hey, you and I have been at it for a few years, in a few more you'll see what I mean, or I'm wrong.
Ah, the fortune teller's refrain. "Just wait longer."
User avatar
Azrael
Posts: 1863
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2011 8:57 pm

Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Azrael »

Ibrahim wrote:
Milo wrote:
Azrael wrote:Milo's logical reasoning is pretty obvious:

Soviet Union = Evil
Saudi Arabia = Evil
therefore Soviet Union = Saudi Arabia

Who can argue with such logic?
It won't be the first time that I told you that you're way above that.
Yes, I think you were decrying amateur opinions shortly before you declared that there was no mention of Mecca in the Quran. How did that turn out for you?
I think he meant that there's no mention of Mecca in the Qureyan, the holy book of the prophet Corey Haim.

But hey, you and I have been at it for a few years, in a few more you'll see what I mean, or I'm wrong.
Ah, the fortune teller's refrain. "Just wait longer."
Do you really think that Islam will survive the heat death of the Universe?
cultivate a white rose
Milo
Posts: 206
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:24 am

Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Milo »

Azrael wrote:
Ibrahim wrote:
Milo wrote:
Azrael wrote:Milo's logical reasoning is pretty obvious:

Soviet Union = Evil
Saudi Arabia = Evil
therefore Soviet Union = Saudi Arabia

Who can argue with such logic?
It won't be the first time that I told you that you're way above that.
Yes, I think you were decrying amateur opinions shortly before you declared that there was no mention of Mecca in the Quran. How did that turn out for you?
I think he meant that there's no mention of Mecca in the Qureyan, the holy book of the prophet Corey Haim.

But hey, you and I have been at it for a few years, in a few more you'll see what I mean, or I'm wrong.
Ah, the fortune teller's refrain. "Just wait longer."
Do you really think that Islam will survive the heat death of the Universe?
Islam will survive of course, much in the way that theosophy survived Germain.
Ibrahim
Posts: 6524
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 2:06 am

Re: Spengler Discovers The Muslim Revolution

Post by Ibrahim »

in the way that theosophy survived Germain.
I'm fond of a "smart" reference, especially from people who have made numerous erroneous statements about history or the contents of the Quran. Makes their baseless predictions seem so much more scholarly. :lol:
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