Live Blogging Election Day

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

How did the marijuana vote go in the states that it was on the ballot?

Perhaps the most important issue of this election.

they passed in both WA and Co

[Mr. Perfect]

Ironically I wanted them to be able to make decisions for themselves. Instead, they chose to turn it over to Obama, who has decided to take all their money and give it to people like me. I can't make sense of it any better than you can.

Right. Somehow I doubt all of this.

Well blacks have done worse under Obama than any other group, and I can't find a democrat motivated to do one darn thing about it.

[Mr. Perfect]

Read your damn Aurelius. You conservatives are shitty Romans, and until you can run a city properly, the Vandals deserve to win.

Red States are doing fine, CA etc, not so much.

[Typhoon]

Ironically I wanted them to be able to make decisions for themselves. Instead, they chose to turn it over to Obama, who has decided to take all their money and give it to people like me. I can't make sense of it any better than you can.

Right. Somehow I doubt all of this.

Well blacks have done worse under Obama than any other group, and I can't find a democrat motivated to do one darn thing about it.

POTUS really is the lightning rod for many for any and all problems.

[re: Parliament of Whores, P.J. O'Rourke]

[Zack Morris]

Something interesting happened tonight that hasn't been discussed here much: a tide of social liberalism has swept the nation. Gay marriage has been voted legal by two -- possibly 3 -- states, and recreational marijuana has been made legal in two. Wisconsin has elected the first openly gay senator and Elizabeth Warren defeated a Tea Party nincompoop. The Democratic Party may be frail and untenable but one thing's for certain: the US is gradually becoming more socially liberal, as expected, and the Republican Party will be left with no choice but to co-opt these positions.

So much for the theory that Christians were going to breed us back to the Stone Age, eh Mr. P?

[Taboo]

Well, the only real question was whether we were in for a smooth adjustment or for a rough adjustment. That question has been answered by the will of the American people. They decided they like it rough.

Obama and the Fed has been trying to paper over a massive depression by pulling growth forward...unfortunately that's really not possible over eight years, so Obama will be stuck with a depression and the resulting blame rather than Romney's "free market" policies (which wouldn't have been free market at all). Furthermore, the economy will get bad enough that circumstances could propel a real conservative into office in 2016 (or admittedly Obama could go FDR and seek a third term...)

There is no way out now, 2016 is meaningless. The next downturn will happen with debt to GDP near 150% and European levels near 100%. There is no forecasting what this will look like. If you guys aren't privileged or can live off the land...

People got really mad when I posted pictures of starvation in 2008.

Perhaps it's because I've been reading them for decades, but I've become more and more skeptical of Apocalypse Any-Day-Now predictions.

The one prediction that I do agree with is the one predicting a secular change in the nature of work due to automation.

Typhoon: It's a simple calculation.

Assume low GDP growth (0-2%) - a reasonable assumption.
This implies that tax receipts will be virtually flat.
Assume deficit trends of the past four years continued: +10%GDP/yr -- not entirely implausible.
Assume that on Jan 1, 2016 interest rate on US debt moves a moderate +400 bp (for a total of 6%). Until then, we assume current trends (2% or 200bp) continue.
Current US tax receipts are 2.5 trillion.
Current US GDP is 15 trillion.
Current US debt is 100% of GDP.
Current US interest on debt is 2% of 100% of GDP ~ 300 billion, or about 12% of tax receipts.

If US debt reaches 140%-150% by 2016, and the interest rate on that debt moves to 6% (a relatively small amount -- I lived with 60% interest rates at some point in Romania), then US interest on debt will be 6% of 150% of GDP -- 1.35 trillion, or about 54% of tax receipts.

Yes, that's 54%.

[Typhoon]

Time for a new article: The decline and fall of Spenglerman.

[Mr. Perfect]

Current US debt is 100% of GDP.

Almost 105%.

[Mr. Perfect]

Something interesting happened tonight that hasn't been discussed here much: a tide of social liberalism has swept the nation. Gay marriage has been voted legal by two -- possibly 3 -- states, and recreational marijuana has been made legal in two. Wisconsin has elected the first openly gay senator and Elizabeth Warren defeated a Tea Party nincompoop. The Democratic Party may be frail and untenable but one thing's for certain: the US is gradually becoming more socially liberal, as expected, and the Republican Party will be left with no choice but to co-opt these positions.

So much for the theory that Christians were going to breed us back to the Stone Age, eh Mr. P?

We've found new ways of heading for the stone age.

[Mr. Perfect]

Ironically I wanted them to be able to make decisions for themselves. Instead, they chose to turn it over to Obama, who has decided to take all their money and give it to people like me. I can't make sense of it any better than you can.

Right. Somehow I doubt all of this.

Well blacks have done worse under Obama than any other group, and I can't find a democrat motivated to do one darn thing about it.

POTUS really is the lightning rod for many for any and all problems.

[re: Parliament of Whores, P.J. O'Rourke]

Potus is responsible for Potus. Potus signed off on trillions for rich white people, zero for poor black people. Tbh there aren't that many conclusions to draw.

[Taboo]

Current US debt is 100% of GDP.

Almost 105%.

I'm rounding down. In fact, US debt interest payments are around 400bn this year, and we're only in November. But as I said, I'm rounding down.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Perhaps, on some of those points, but President's aren't impeached because what they did broke the law, you know that.

"...if this was Bush...." is a whole bunch of whining that allows the behavior to continue. It is a weird way of saying, "I have no power to stop this, so I'm going to pout."

You know the Republican Party won really on the issues of tax cuts and growth in the post Reagan era (without dragging in the Cold War and whatnot), we've never won ever nationally on spending cuts, and we've tried a number of times, including this time.

This time tax cuts and growth seemed risky, and the poors really dream of their imaginary paychecks coming, so there was no sale. It's pretty much that simple.

I'm really believing it is deeper than that Mr.P. And it begins in the schooling and an aversion to risk....I'll have to think about it some more....

[Mr. Perfect]

Well when you try to condense decades of history into a few sentences you gotta cut a little slack.

[Simple Minded]

POTUS really is the lightning rod for many for any and all problems.

[re: Parliament of Whores, P.J. O'Rourke]

Morning after.... Thanks to JN and all contributors!

Absolutely right Typhoon! Merikans don't vote for presidents we vote for alchemists and magicians!

Sometimes I think non-Americans believe in American presidents with magical/superhuman powers even more than the natives......

The will of the people has spoken, let it be written, let it be done.

"We" are reaping what "we" sow..... who could ask for more?

[Nonc Hilaire]

Romney ran the lamest campaign I have ever seen. No concrete proposals, no attacks. He just stood there during the entire campaign waving a flag and holding an "I love big business!" sign.

Obama reneged on every single promise he made in 2008, and Romney never brought it up. What a loser.

[monster_gardener]

It looks like Marijuana will be legalized in Colorado and Washington State....

Thank You Very Much for your post, Nap.

I hope you are right.

But I wonder if Choom Hog will wait till after the midterms in 2014 so he can be sure he is safe and can stop messing with States that legalize......

If he keeps doing it after 2014, we can be sure he has gone all the way over to the Dork Side of the Farce..........

The Dork Side of the Force? That's pretty bad....

Thank You VERY MUCH for your Reply and the VERY KIND Words.

The Dork Side of the Force? That's pretty bad....

Yep...... Bad as Spaceballs

I am glad that this poor Fool was able to amuse a Bra-Man oops I mean a Brahmin.

Sincere Thanks Again,
Your Friend on the Forum and the Dork Side of the Farce,
Monster Gardener......

[Jnalum Persicum]

.

A decline in the number of white voters and a surge in voters from ethnic minorities and women helped Obama on election night. Ohio, one of the key battleground states, was captured in part through a rise in turnout among African-Americans, who voted overwhelmingly for Obama.

“ The demographics race we’re losing badly. We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term ”

This year is likely to be the first in recent history when the majority of babies born in the U.S. are born to families from an “ethnic minority” background.

. . 72 percent of those who cast their vote this year were white, down from 74 percent in 2008 . .

.

[Typhoon]

Perhaps the biggest winner is that statistician Nate Silver and the biggest loser Gallup and other conventional polling businesses.

BW | Nate Silver-Led Statistics Men Crush Pundits in Election

[anderson]

Well, the only real question was whether we were in for a smooth adjustment or for a rough adjustment. That question has been answered by the will of the American people. They decided they like it rough.

Obama and the Fed has been trying to paper over a massive depression by pulling growth forward...unfortunately that's really not possible over eight years, so Obama will be stuck with a depression and the resulting blame rather than Romney's "free market" policies (which wouldn't have been free market at all). Furthermore, the economy will get bad enough that circumstances could propel a real conservative into office in 2016 (or admittedly Obama could go FDR and seek a third term...)

There is no way out now, 2016 is meaningless. The next downturn will happen with debt to GDP near 150% and European levels near 100%. There is no forecasting what this will look like. If you guys aren't privileged or can live off the land...

People got really mad when I posted pictures of starvation in 2008.

Perhaps it's because I've been reading them for decades, but I've become more and more skeptical of Apocalypse Any-Day-Now predictions.

The one prediction that I do agree with is the one predicting a secular change in the nature of work due to automation.

Typhoon: It's a simple calculation.

Assume low GDP growth (0-2%) - a reasonable assumption.
This implies that tax receipts will be virtually flat.
Assume deficit trends of the past four years continued: +10%GDP/yr -- not entirely implausible.
Assume that on Jan 1, 2016 interest rate on US debt moves a moderate +400 bp (for a total of 6%). Until then, we assume current trends (2% or 200bp) continue.
Current US tax receipts are 2.5 trillion.
Current US GDP is 15 trillion.
Current US debt is 100% of GDP.
Current US interest on debt is 2% of 100% of GDP ~ 300 billion, or about 12% of tax receipts.

If US debt reaches 140%-150% by 2016, and the interest rate on that debt moves to 6% (a relatively small amount -- I lived with 60% interest rates at some point in Romania), then US interest on debt will be 6% of 150% of GDP -- 1.35 trillion, or about 54% of tax receipts.

Yes, that's 54%.

Horrific predictions of the immanent demise of the US are way overblown, IMHO. Not a call to complacency, but I don't think it takes a dramatic shift to get things safely under control in the near term. The US is probably better positioned than just about anyone else with their combination of natural and human resources.

In terms of tax receipts and economic growth, it's kind of known that a lot of companies / investors have been strategically sitting on mountains of cash keeping it back to try to deny Obama a second term. They're not going to sit on it for another 4 years; they're going to want to put that money to work in investment.

If America goes full in with energy and minerals (and by going in I mean government stepping out of the way, cutting the tape to let the market open it up more freely) in all the ways its natural resources allow - oil, including Keystone, natural gas, including frakking, wind in the states where it works, solar in the states where it works, nuclear, rare earths minerals, it can be much more self-sufficient in a way its main geo-political rivals cannot and can correspondingly afford to draw back in military spending and foreign involvement. This allows you to cut back on spending while raising receipts, substantially on both fronts. I would imagine some sort of "grand bargain" will be reached domestically along these lines. Obama gets the leeway politically to draw back on the military to a strong but sustainable level and back to a less imperial foreign policy by throwing the environmental lobby under the bus and moving full steam ahead with domestic energy. It seems a workable no-brainer compromise that could garner widespread popular bipartisan support.

A certain hefty degree of military is needed to maintain America's standing, protect its own homeland and vast resources, and share the burden as one of the chief powers to protect the major shipping routes. But America could probably safely drop at least a quarter trillion a year in military spending.

One place America needs to be careful in this is that the military-industry has become one of the largest corporate welfare programs in the country. So care needs to be taken to minimize negative effects of cuts. There is spending in there that supports high tech research and development, and that R&D spending needs to be carefully redirected to more societally useful areas. (There is some need to keep some of this R&D money in researching new weapons for purely defensive purposes)

Space technology, high energy physics, fusion energy, biotechnology / genetic engineering, nanotechnology, materials / materials science, wireless technology / networking. Put a good emphasis on the hard, physical, quantitative sciences, maybe extend a carrot to draw talent away from the parasitic quantitative finance field.

Long-term sustainability is won with modest but important reforms to entitlements including modest raises to the retirement age, raising of the ceiling on which Social Security premiums are levied and probably means testing for government entitlement programs like Medicare.

[YMix]

Perhaps the biggest winner is that pollster - pundit Nate Silver.

Even though he's still green and going out of business.

[Typhoon]

Something interesting happened tonight that hasn't been discussed here much: a tide of social liberalism has swept the nation. Gay marriage has been voted legal by two -- possibly 3 -- states, and recreational marijuana has been made legal in two. Wisconsin has elected the first openly gay senator and Elizabeth Warren defeated a Tea Party nincompoop. The Democratic Party may be frail and untenable but one thing's for certain: the US is gradually becoming more socially liberal, as expected, and the Republican Party will be left with no choice but to co-opt these positions.

So much for the theory that Christians were going to breed us back to the Stone Age, eh Mr. P?

We've found new ways of heading for the stone age.

More Stoned Age than Stone Age.

[Typhoon]

Perhaps the biggest winner is that statistician Nate Silver and the biggest loser Gallup and other conventional polling businesses.

BW | Nate Silver-Led Statistics Men Crush Pundits in Election

And Netanyahu.

[noddy]

Well, the only real question was whether we were in for a smooth adjustment or for a rough adjustment. That question has been answered by the will of the American people. They decided they like it rough.

Obama and the Fed has been trying to paper over a massive depression by pulling growth forward...unfortunately that's really not possible over eight years, so Obama will be stuck with a depression and the resulting blame rather than Romney's "free market" policies (which wouldn't have been free market at all). Furthermore, the economy will get bad enough that circumstances could propel a real conservative into office in 2016 (or admittedly Obama could go FDR and seek a third term...)

There is no way out now, 2016 is meaningless. The next downturn will happen with debt to GDP near 150% and European levels near 100%. There is no forecasting what this will look like. If you guys aren't privileged or can live off the land...

People got really mad when I posted pictures of starvation in 2008.

Perhaps it's because I've been reading them for decades, but I've become more and more skeptical of Apocalypse Any-Day-Now predictions.

The one prediction that I do agree with is the one predicting a secular change in the nature of work due to automation.

Typhoon: It's a simple calculation.

Assume low GDP growth (0-2%) - a reasonable assumption.
This implies that tax receipts will be virtually flat.
Assume deficit trends of the past four years continued: +10%GDP/yr -- not entirely implausible.
Assume that on Jan 1, 2016 interest rate on US debt moves a moderate +400 bp (for a total of 6%). Until then, we assume current trends (2% or 200bp) continue.
Current US tax receipts are 2.5 trillion.
Current US GDP is 15 trillion.
Current US debt is 100% of GDP.
Current US interest on debt is 2% of 100% of GDP ~ 300 billion, or about 12% of tax receipts.

If US debt reaches 140%-150% by 2016, and the interest rate on that debt moves to 6% (a relatively small amount -- I lived with 60% interest rates at some point in Romania), then US interest on debt will be 6% of 150% of GDP -- 1.35 trillion, or about 54% of tax receipts.

Yes, that's 54%.

Horrific predictions of the immanent demise of the US are way overblown, IMHO. Not a call to complacency, but I don't think it takes a dramatic shift to get things safely under control in the near term. The US is probably better positioned than just about anyone else with their combination of natural and human resources.

In terms of tax receipts and economic growth, it's kind of known that a lot of companies / investors have been strategically sitting on mountains of cash keeping it back to try to deny Obama a second term. They're not going to sit on it for another 4 years; they're going to want to put that money to work in investment.

If America goes full in with energy and minerals (and by going in I mean government stepping out of the way, cutting the tape to let the market open it up more freely) in all the ways its natural resources allow - oil, including Keystone, natural gas, including frakking, wind in the states where it works, solar in the states where it works, nuclear, rare earths minerals, it can be much more self-sufficient in a way its main geo-political rivals cannot and can correspondingly afford to draw back in military spending and foreign involvement. This allows you to cut back on spending while raising receipts, substantially on both fronts. I would imagine some sort of "grand bargain" will be reached domestically along these lines. Obama gets the leeway politically to draw back on the military to a strong but sustainable level and back to a less imperial foreign policy by throwing the environmental lobby under the bus and moving full steam ahead with domestic energy. It seems a workable no-brainer compromise that could garner widespread popular bipartisan support.

A certain hefty degree of military is needed to maintain America's standing, protect its own homeland and vast resources, and share the burden as one of the chief powers to protect the major shipping routes. But America could probably safely drop at least a quarter trillion a year in military spending.

One place America needs to be careful in this is that the military-industry has become one of the largest corporate welfare programs in the country. So care needs to be taken to minimize negative effects of cuts. There is spending in there that supports high tech research and development, and that R&D spending needs to be carefully redirected to more societally useful areas. (There is some need to keep some of this R&D money in researching new weapons for purely defensive purposes)

Space technology, high energy physics, fusion energy, biotechnology / genetic engineering, nanotechnology, materials / materials science, wireless technology / networking. Put a good emphasis on the hard, physical, quantitative sciences, maybe extend a carrot to draw talent away from the parasitic quantitative finance field.

Long-term sustainability is won with modest but important reforms to entitlements including modest raises to the retirement age, raising of the ceiling on which Social Security premiums are levied and probably means testing for government entitlement programs like Medicare.

has the problem ever been the lack of sensible solutions ?



the old quip of america trying every solution before it tries the correct one, might still apply.

[noddy]

Something interesting happened tonight that hasn't been discussed here much: a tide of social liberalism has swept the nation. Gay marriage has been voted legal by two -- possibly 3 -- states, and recreational marijuana has been made legal in two. Wisconsin has elected the first openly gay senator and Elizabeth Warren defeated a Tea Party nincompoop. The Democratic Party may be frail and untenable but one thing's for certain: the US is gradually becoming more socially liberal, as expected, and the Republican Party will be left with no choice but to co-opt these positions.

So much for the theory that Christians were going to breed us back to the Stone Age, eh Mr. P?

We've found new ways of heading for the stone age.

More Stoned Age than Stone Age.

boom tish!

[Typhoon]

Well, the only real question was whether we were in for a smooth adjustment or for a rough adjustment. That question has been answered by the will of the American people. They decided they like it rough.

Obama and the Fed has been trying to paper over a massive depression by pulling growth forward...unfortunately that's really not possible over eight years, so Obama will be stuck with a depression and the resulting blame rather than Romney's "free market" policies (which wouldn't have been free market at all). Furthermore, the economy will get bad enough that circumstances could propel a real conservative into office in 2016 (or admittedly Obama could go FDR and seek a third term...)

There is no way out now, 2016 is meaningless. The next downturn will happen with debt to GDP near 150% and European levels near 100%. There is no forecasting what this will look like. If you guys aren't privileged or can live off the land...

People got really mad when I posted pictures of starvation in 2008.

Perhaps it's because I've been reading them for decades, but I've become more and more skeptical of Apocalypse Any-Day-Now predictions.

The one prediction that I do agree with is the one predicting a secular change in the nature of work due to automation.

Typhoon: It's a simple calculation.

Assume low GDP growth (0-2%) - a reasonable assumption.
This implies that tax receipts will be virtually flat.
Assume deficit trends of the past four years continued: +10%GDP/yr -- not entirely implausible.
Assume that on Jan 1, 2016 interest rate on US debt moves a moderate +400 bp (for a total of 6%). Until then, we assume current trends (2% or 200bp) continue.
Current US tax receipts are 2.5 trillion.
Current US GDP is 15 trillion.
Current US debt is 100% of GDP.
Current US interest on debt is 2% of 100% of GDP ~ 300 billion, or about 12% of tax receipts.

If US debt reaches 140%-150% by 2016, and the interest rate on that debt moves to 6% (a relatively small amount -- I lived with 60% interest rates at some point in Romania), then US interest on debt will be 6% of 150% of GDP -- 1.35 trillion, or about 54% of tax receipts.

Yes, that's 54%.

Well, I'm on record as speculating that the beginning of the end of Pax Americana will be when the US govt can no longer pay the interest on it's debt through taxation and instead
will have to resort to printing money in order to do so. In other words, the US dollar will no longer be backed by the productivity of the US economy.
At that point, the US would have to use aggressive gunboat diplomacy to maintain the US dollar as the global reserve currency. This would only postpone the inevitable.

One could argue that, In a rational world, US govt bond interest rates should similar to those of Greece.

Instead, as the US debt has grown, US govt bond interest rates have steadily declined:



The current effective rate of interest is zero or even negative when inflation is taken into account.

Japan's govt debt to GDP ratio is the highest of any industrialized nation ~ 200%

How has the market punished the succession of profligate Japanese govts?



However, I do agree that a rise in US govt bond rates from ZIRP back to historic norms would be traumatic for the current US economy. Likewise for Japan.