Iran

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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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Sanctions Intended to Foster Unrest



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Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee today and reiterated the same assessment regarding Iran as was delivered last month.

The exact same statements – verbatim – were included in Clapper’s unclassified report, including the assessment that, “Iran is developing nuclear capabilities to enhance its security, prestige, and regional influence and give it the ability to develop nuclear weapons, should a decision be made to do so. We do not know if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”

Of course, as Clapper notes, Iran’s ability to potentially manufacture the components is inherent to its advanced nuclear infrastructure and is not an indication of an active nuclear weapons program, which all U.S. intelligence agencies agree Iran does not have.

As such, Clapper again reported to the Senate Committee, “Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons. This makes the central issue its political will to do so.”

In his testimony, Clapper stated that, were the decision to weaponize its nuclear energy program to be made by Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran could theoretically reach a “breakout” point within “months, not years.” His report repeats the assessment, though, that “[d]espite this progress, we assess Iran could not divert safeguarded material and produce a weapon-worth of WGU before this activity is discovered.”

Again, undermining the bogus claims that Iran is an irrational and reckless actor, Clapper maintained the judgment that “Iran’s nuclear decision-making is guided by a cost-benefit approach,” balancing its own domestic interests with “the international political and security environment.” Iran also has a defensive – not aggressive – military posture, one based on “its strategy to deter – and if necessary retaliate against – forces in the region, including US forces” were an attack on Iran to occur.

During questioning from Senators following his prepared remarks, Clapper admitted – as a number of recent independent reports have shown – that the increasingly harsh sanctions levied upon Iran have had no effect on the decision-making process of the Iranian leadership, yet has produced considerable damage to the Iranian economy and resulted in increased “inflation, unemployment, [and the] unavailability of commodities” for the Iranian people.

This, he said, is entirely the point. Responding to Maine Senator Angus King, who asked about the impact sanctions have on the Iranian government, Clapper explained that the intent of sanctions is to spark dissent and unrest in the Iranian population, effectively starting that Obama administration’s continued collective punishment of the Iranian people is a deliberate (and embarrassingly futile) tactic employed to foment regime change.

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Iranian nuclear policy is not an Ayatollah or "Regime" or Mullah.. or even Shah .. policy & program

Iranian nation wants and decided to go nuclear .. in fact if Ayatollahs decide to cancel nuke, Iranians would revolt

Meaning, squeezing Iranian population will only validate Iranian people's conviction re Western attitude versus Persian family of nations .. central Asia, Cavkaz, Mesopotamia and and and they all watching how things will go




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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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51SYYeokM+L.jpg
51SYYeokM+L.jpg (39.01 KiB) Viewed 1166 times




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An Anthology of Philosophy in Persia : Philosophical Theology in the Middle Ages and Beyond

Persia is home to one of the few civilizations in the world that has had a continuous tradition of philosophical thought for over two and a half millennia. As Islamic theology developed in the Middle Ages, many of its schools interacted with existing Persian philosophical currents and evolved into a distinctive philosophical 'Kalam', or dogmatic theology. Among the definitive masters of both Shi'i and Sunni theologians were numerous Pomegranates, chief among them Al-Ghazzali and Fakhr al-Din Al-Razi, who are prominently represented here. Important selections from both Shi'i and Sunni theological schools (including Mu'tazila and Ash'ariyya) are included in the volume, many of which have never before been available in translation in the West until now.

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monster_gardener
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Location: Trolla. Land of upside down trees and tomatos........

Iran should go Orion and Nukes are Needed for That..........

Post by monster_gardener »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.



Sanctions Intended to Foster Unrest



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Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee today and reiterated the same assessment regarding Iran as was delivered last month.

The exact same statements – verbatim – were included in Clapper’s unclassified report, including the assessment that, “Iran is developing nuclear capabilities to enhance its security, prestige, and regional influence and give it the ability to develop nuclear weapons, should a decision be made to do so. We do not know if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”

Of course, as Clapper notes, Iran’s ability to potentially manufacture the components is inherent to its advanced nuclear infrastructure and is not an indication of an active nuclear weapons program, which all U.S. intelligence agencies agree Iran does not have.

As such, Clapper again reported to the Senate Committee, “Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons. This makes the central issue its political will to do so.”

In his testimony, Clapper stated that, were the decision to weaponize its nuclear energy program to be made by Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran could theoretically reach a “breakout” point within “months, not years.” His report repeats the assessment, though, that “[d]espite this progress, we assess Iran could not divert safeguarded material and produce a weapon-worth of WGU before this activity is discovered.”

Again, undermining the bogus claims that Iran is an irrational and reckless actor, Clapper maintained the judgment that “Iran’s nuclear decision-making is guided by a cost-benefit approach,” balancing its own domestic interests with “the international political and security environment.” Iran also has a defensive – not aggressive – military posture, one based on “its strategy to deter – and if necessary retaliate against – forces in the region, including US forces” were an attack on Iran to occur.

During questioning from Senators following his prepared remarks, Clapper admitted – as a number of recent independent reports have shown – that the increasingly harsh sanctions levied upon Iran have had no effect on the decision-making process of the Iranian leadership, yet has produced considerable damage to the Iranian economy and resulted in increased “inflation, unemployment, [and the] unavailability of commodities” for the Iranian people.

This, he said, is entirely the point. Responding to Maine Senator Angus King, who asked about the impact sanctions have on the Iranian government, Clapper explained that the intent of sanctions is to spark dissent and unrest in the Iranian population, effectively starting that Obama administration’s continued collective punishment of the Iranian people is a deliberate (and embarrassingly futile) tactic employed to foment regime change.

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Iranian nuclear policy is not an Ayatollah or "Regime" or Mullah.. or even Shah .. policy & program

Iranian nation wants and decided to go nuclear .. in fact if Ayatollahs decide to cancel nuke, Iranians would revolt

Meaning, squeezing Iranian population will only validate Iranian people's conviction re Western attitude versus Persian family of nations .. central Asia, Cavkaz, Mesopotamia and and and they all watching how things will go




.
Thank You Very Much for your post Azari,
Iranian nation wants and decided to go nuclear .. in fact if Ayatollahs decide to cancel nuke, Iranians would revolt
I agree with a nuance.....

Renounce the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and go for mini nukes to be used in Iran's version of Project Orion, the nuclear bomb propelled spaceship.

Iran can say this is for a peaceful purpose and even cite the US Air Force saying that Orion had no military utility :roll: something that helped to stop Orion here in Uz along with the Test Ban Treaty......

Iran still gets to have nukes but can claim it is doing it for the good of all Humanity ;) so it can deflect Space Rocks and lead Humanity ;) to the Stars.....

Take a look at the signatory map, red are Non Signers.......

Image

Note that the Chinese, the French and the Saudis have not signed it at all.......... Iran would not be alone........

And likely not alone for long if it did go Orion or rather Rustam.........

I doubt that Uz, or the Russians, or the Chinese or the Israelis are going to let Persia be the ONLY meteor deflection force or have the ONLY colonies on the Moon and further out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pa ... ignatories
For the love of G_d, consider you & I may be mistaken.
Orion Must Rise: Killer Space Rocks Coming Our way
The Best Laid Plans of Men, Monkeys & Pigs Oft Go Awry
Woe to those who long for the Day of the Lord, for It is Darkness, Not Light
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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CSM .. warns the report : “Sanctions-related hardships may be sowing the seeds of long-term alienation between the Iranian people and the United States.”



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Mr. Pickering and Limbert were among 35 signatories of the report, which included other veteran diplomats and officials like Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser; Ryan Crocker, former ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and other trouble spots; Lee Hamilton, a former congressman and vice chairman of the 9/11 Commission; and former Central Intelligence Agency chief Michael Hayden.

[..]

Mr. Khamenei said, “if the Americans sincerely want” to resolve the nuclear issue “they should stop being hostile towards the Iranian nation in words and in action.”

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Has Obama already failed?

“In the end, Obama’s Iran policy failed. He pushed ahead with sanctions for the same reason Lyndon Johnson kept up the bombing of North Vietnam – neither could think of anything else to do," asserts Nasr. "Obama’s sanctions-heavy approach did not change Iranian behavior; instead it encouraged Iran to accelerate its race to nuclear capability.”

Creating a solution may require a change in approach, say the authors of The Iran Project report.

“We have to do something the Iranians aren’t expecting, that gets them to stop and say, ‘Wait a minute… maybe the Americans are serious,’” said James Walsh, a nonproliferation expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, at the report launch.

“The only way this hard stuff will get done is if the president of the United States makes it his issue,” added Mr. Walsh. “Absent that, we’re going to continue to do what we’ve done over and over again, only it will get worse.”

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The more this drags, the more Iranian nation will be alienated from West, and, America will lose the only nation in that space that is friendly to America


Western sanctions are water on Ayatollah's mill


Iranian nation decided to become a nuclear power, west trying to prevent this to keep Iran down .. this the real issue .. this, neither Shah nor Mullah issue .. Ayatollahs know this (and are steering things towards this effect) but WEST not yet has realized it or is under Zionist pressure to sacrifice western future interest.



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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

l-ylpWjs4Uw


ZsCdccXLP8M


kQTVNoZDNf0





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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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AAANd , those on the other side of the fence : :lol: :lol: .. very funny




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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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For those knowledgeable and interested about forthcoming Iranian presidential election




v4jqIv7-BNU




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Azrael
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Azrael »

The election should be interesting.

>> In February 2013, Kharrazi claimed "If I am elected as president, I will return the lands of Tajikistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, which were separated from Iran." Iran lost these lands in the 19th century. <<

What do you think of Mohammed Bagher Kharrazi? He sounds like your type of guy.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Azrael wrote:.


The election should be interesting.

>> In February 2013, Kharrazi claimed "If I am elected as president, I will return the lands of Tajikistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, which were separated from Iran." Iran lost these lands in the 19th century. <<

What do you think of Mohammed Bagher Kharrazi? He sounds like your type of guy.


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This first time I hear from this guy .. never heard of him neither know who he is .. anybody can candidate for presidency, there are 1000s of candidates

but

This is interesting

Reason is, Iranians fault the Clergy, the mad mullahs, the Ayatollahs, for loss of those provinces to Russia .. Ayatollahs did agitate but did not deliver when it came to clash with Russia

Ayatollahs know of this "Black spot" in their dossier, they owe Iranian nation a "Gut Machung"

That is why, Iran working for REPATRIATION of lost members of Persian family of nations .. peacefully .. and .. things workin quite well




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Alexis
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Attack Iran (sez Spengler, Nth repeat)

Post by Alexis »

Syria Attack Shows There’s No Alternative to Neutralizing Iran
There’s only one way to cut the Gordian Knot of regional conflict in the Middle East, and that is to de-fang Iran–destroy its capacity to make nuclear weapons and destroy the bases of the Revolutionary Guard.
(...)
Sunni-Shia conflict is not necessarily averse to American interests; as Daniel Pipes, the dean of conservative Middle East analysts, wrote April 11, “Evil forces pose less danger to us when they make war on each other. This (1) keeps them focused locally and it (2) prevents either one from emerging victorious (and thereby posing a yet-greater danger). Western powers should guide enemies to stalemate by helping whichever side is losing, so as to prolong their conflict.” (I made a similar argument last year.)
David Goldman argues for the Nth time for destruction of Iranian facilities linked to nuclear research along with Revolutionary Guard bases.

I think he's fully right on the Middle East going more and more in the direction of Sunni-Shia extended conflict. That's not difficult to see by now, but he was among the first to see it.

More precisely, this extended conflict looks like Sunni extremists -Jihadists and other Al Qaida-like types- against Shia allied with Alawi and Christians (look up Lebanon & Syria)
- Jihadists are supported by Saudiland, Qatar, the USA and various European governments
- Shias/Alawis/Christians are supported by Iran, Russia and China

About the Pipes/ Goldman advice to hope for and to favorise a Thirty-Years war like outcome of severe population destruction both of Sunni and Shia Middle Easterners (along with some Alawi and Christians), it's not the first time either for DPG to advise as such. Nor is it surprising, given his standing on issues of basic morality, which I guess most readers have by now properly assessed.

Again, the same black spots as regards the consequences of an all-out US/Israel against Iran war:
- What of Israel's status as a modern industrial society, after her main power stations are destroyed by Iran's ballistic missiles: what of the years before such are rebuilt? How do you run a modern country without electricity in the meantime?
- What of World's economy if say 30% of oil global production is blocked from export during several months, or even more in case of destruction of oil extraction or export facilities?

I don't think David Goldman would be such an ardent advocate of preventive war against Iran, if he had taken the full measure of these consequences...
Ibrahim
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Re: Attack Iran (sez Spengler, Nth repeat)

Post by Ibrahim »

Alexis wrote:David Goldman argues for the Nth time for destruction of Iranian facilities linked to nuclear research along with Revolutionary Guard bases.
He's argued about the imminent need to attack Iran for his entire post-LaRouchite career. Ten years of Iran needing to be attacked within the next six months.


I think he's fully right on the Middle East going more and more in the direction of Sunni-Shia extended conflict. That's not difficult to see by now, but he was among the first to see it.

More precisely, this extended conflict looks like Sunni extremists -Jihadists and other Al Qaida-like types- against Shia allied with Alawi and Christians (look up Lebanon & Syria)
- Jihadists are supported by Saudiland, Qatar, the USA and various European governments
- Shias/Alawis/Christians are supported by Iran, Russia and China
Nonsense. Syria is political before it is sectarian, and the presence of foreign fighters who are associated with -- gasp -- terrorism only distracts Western dilettantes. The conflict began, and continues to be sustain by, Syrians who oppose the Assad regime, mostly Syrian soldiers who defected from the regime's military. The foreign fighters would pop up anywhere there is some fighting to do against the less-Godly-than-they (which is everyone, everywhere).

In e.g. Egypt the conflict and ongoing political friction is entirely Sunni. Most terrorist attacks throughout the Muslim world are Sunni on Sunni as extremist fringe elements attack the majority. The revolutions in Tunisia and Libya were political and not sectarian, as any future revolution in Jordan. Such conflicts can also have tribal elements, as in Yemen. The Sunni-Shia divide in Afghanistan is also tribal and linguistic as much as or more than sectarian.

In such places as Sunni-Shia conflict is a major problem - Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria - it is a problem because of general chaos caused by foreign invasions/occupation or domestic civil war, none of which began for sectarian reasons. In some cases the sectarian violence was openly encouraged by the foreign invaders.

Saudi Arabia is emerging as the most stable power in the Arab world, but it is as afraid of an extremist or democratic uprising, not to mention a slave revolt (pardon me, foreign laborers) as it is anything any Shia might do. Saudi armed forces are armed and trained to suppress such revolts, not act outside of the KSA. They can rent the US military for that.


About the Pipes/ Goldman advice to hope for and to favorise a Thirty-Years war like outcome of severe population destruction
Indeed, both Pipes and Spengler are genocidal racists.
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Re: Iran

Post by Endovelico »

Scientific Journals Must Not Touch Anything Related to Iran
Posted By Jason Ditz On May 10, 2013 @ 5:21 pm In News

Major scientific journal publisher Reed Elsevier and others are vowing to obey the latest US sanctions against Iran in their day-to-day operations, implementing bizarre policies aimed at following the letter of the law.

The sanctions ban Americans from having any contact with anything written in whole or part by Iranian government employees. Though Elsevier is a Dutch company, it has plenty of American employees, particularly as relates to its English language publications.

So the company has had to introduce a series of zero tolerance policies that its American-born employees cannot have any interaction with the physical manuscripts of Iranians, and also advises managers to “reject outright” any manuscripts from Iran if they can’t find a non-American employee to handle it. The company is concerned that journal editors could be held personally liable by the US government for acquiring the taint of handling Iranian manuscripts.

The fight isn’t a new one. In 2004 the US government tried to ban every American scientist on the planet from having anything to do with any Iranian research, threatening to prosecute individual scientists for “collaboration” with Iran if they did so. The ban was openly repudiated by the American Institute of Physics and other groups, saying it violated freedom of speech, and the scheme was essentially dropped in favor of a toned down version.
I don't know very well how to comment on this. Have Americans gone completely mad?... Is there no rationality left in the US?... Is there some form of bird flu attacking the intelligence of people all around the world? If we look at these American policies, at the way the European Union reacts to the financial crisis, and how presumably sane governments everywhere are handling sensitive matters, we may be allowed to think that there has been a sharp drop in IQ on our planet. Formerly one shot rabid dogs. Should we start doing the same to rabid politicians?...

Image
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Re: Iran

Post by jerryberry »

Have Americans gone completely mad?...
Many have completely lost their mind. I think it'll pass.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Iran

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Endovelico wrote:
Scientific Journals Must Not Touch Anything Related to Iran
Posted By Jason Ditz On May 10, 2013 @ 5:21 pm In News

Major scientific journal publisher Reed Elsevier and others are vowing to obey the latest US sanctions against Iran in their day-to-day operations, implementing bizarre policies aimed at following the letter of the law.

The sanctions ban Americans from having any contact with anything written in whole or part by Iranian government employees. Though Elsevier is a Dutch company, it has plenty of American employees, particularly as relates to its English language publications.

So the company has had to introduce a series of zero tolerance policies that its American-born employees cannot have any interaction with the physical manuscripts of Iranians, and also advises managers to “reject outright” any manuscripts from Iran if they can’t find a non-American employee to handle it. The company is concerned that journal editors could be held personally liable by the US government for acquiring the taint of handling Iranian manuscripts.

The fight isn’t a new one. In 2004 the US government tried to ban every American scientist on the planet from having anything to do with any Iranian research, threatening to prosecute individual scientists for “collaboration” with Iran if they did so. The ban was openly repudiated by the American Institute of Physics and other groups, saying it violated freedom of speech, and the scheme was essentially dropped in favor of a toned down version.
I don't know very well how to comment on this. Have Americans gone completely mad?... Is there no rationality left in the US?... Is there some form of bird flu attacking the intelligence of people all around the world? If we look at these American policies, at the way the European Union reacts to the financial crisis, and how presumably sane governments everywhere are handling sensitive matters, we may be allowed to think that there has been a sharp drop in IQ on our planet. Formerly one shot rabid dogs. Should we start doing the same to rabid politicians ? ...


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:lol: :lol: :lol: (can not stop laughing)



Iran publishes all Iranian scientific research, papers, for everybody to read .. if Americans prohibited reading Iranian scientific papers, it America's loss and not Iranian .. In a few generations, top scientist will be Iranian, Chinese, Indian, Brazilian, Argentinian and and and .. America becoming an unfriendly country for foreigners

Iranian students .. father, mother, sister and and all in Iran .. arrive from Sharif university of Tehran to Phd program in Stanford university, immediately declared American citizen and forbidden any contact with Iran (with their father and mother and Sister and and) :lol: :lol: , naive and stupid




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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Iran

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Rahim-Mashai-Candidate-for-Iran-President-2.jpg
Rahim-Mashai-Candidate-for-Iran-President-2.jpg (65.24 KiB) Viewed 1080 times


Well, Endo, maybe you were right ..


Esfandiar Rahim Mashai registered as candidate for Presidential election with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at his side



He the best candidate




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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Iran

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

kYUQ5PAGVH8
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Re: Iran

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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“ Mashaei means Ahmadinejad and Ahmadinejad means Mashaei ”



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Appearing at a news conference with Mr. Ahmadinejad after registering, Mr. Mashaei, 52, said he was set to continue Mr. Ahmadinejad’s international policies, seen by the West as confrontational, and his economic decisions, considered controversial. Mr. Mashaei represents a new generation of politicians, defined by the president, who seem determined to to oust older leaders from power. While once supported by Iran’s political establishment, Mr. Ahmadinejad and his team have now fallen out of favor, mostly because they have accumulated too much influence, analysts say. “Mashaei means Ahmadinejad and Ahmadinejad means Mashaei,” the president said at the news conference.

But Mr. Mashaei has been far more outspoken than his mentor on issues like personal freedoms, often stressing individual rights. He also organized a controversial conference in which a group of dancing women carried around the Koran, angering conservative clerics.

Mr. Rafsanjani, on the other hand, has cast himself as a pragmatist, calling for a more open society and better business relationships with the West. Mr. Rafsanjani, 80, a veteran of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, says Iran is in a “danger zone” because of the “amateurism” of the president and his team. A cleric himself, Mr. Rafsanjani has criticized traditionalist clerics and their supporters for trying to quash all dissenting voices.

[..]

In a sign of the tensions that will undoubtedly surface in the campaign, two fistfights erupted in the building’s pressroom after Mr. Mashaei and Mr. Ahmadinejad left.

In the first, after an opponent of Mr. Mashaei accused him of placing “pornographic statues” in Iranian parks, a supporter shoved all the press microphones off a table and started hitting another person. In the second, a reporter for the semiofficial Fars news agency fought with an unidentified man in a baseball cap. The police intervened, but no arrests were made, local news media reported.

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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Iran

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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Azrael
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Re: The Iran Thread

Post by Azrael »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:
Azrael wrote:.


The election should be interesting.

>> In February 2013, Kharrazi claimed "If I am elected as president, I will return the lands of Tajikistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, which were separated from Iran." Iran lost these lands in the 19th century. <<

What do you think of Mohammed Bagher Kharrazi? He sounds like your type of guy.


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This first time I hear from this guy .. never heard of him neither know who he is .. anybody can candidate for presidency, there are 1000s of candidates
The number of candidates has been narrowed down to eight. One of them is Mohammed Kharrazi (also spelled "Gharazi").

Image

Also included are the reformist Reza Aref, Rafsanjani's associate Hassan Rouhani, Khamanei's associate Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel and a few more guys who seem pretty close to Khamanei: Ali Akbar Velayati, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (current mayor of Tehran) and Saeed Jalili. Mohsen Rezaee seems to be close to reformist former presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi. So, two reformists (Reza Aref and Mohsen Rezaee), a moderate (Hassan Rouhani) and the other five are conservatives. I don't think that Ahmadenijad has a horse in this race.

Some analysts consider Jalili to be the front-runner.

Do you have any predictions?

Above you said, "Pretty much given former foreign minister, Ali-Akbar Velayati will be the one." Are you familiar with the others?
but

This is interesting

Reason is, Iranians fault the Clergy, the mad mullahs, the Ayatollahs, for loss of those provinces to Russia .. Ayatollahs did agitate but did not deliver when it came to clash with Russia

Ayatollahs know of this "Black spot" in their dossier, they owe Iranian nation a "Gut Machung"

That is why, Iran working for REPATRIATION of lost members of Persian family of nations .. peacefully .. and .. things workin quite well.
I don't see how. So far, the Islamic Republic has restored 0% of territory lost to Tsarist Russia.
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Ibrahim
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Re: Iran

Post by Ibrahim »

Under the current organization of the state, the Iranian president is a figurehead. Even if he wasn't selected from pre-approved candidates and was allowed to advocate a reformist program, he would have no power to actually implement it. If the Supreme Council were smarter they might go ahead and let a reformist president get elected and say whatever he wanted while nothing changed, but they aren't a group to learn new tricks.

Probably the aftermath of some kind of Iranian uprising would be the de facto concentration of power under the president while the Supreme Council is abolished or reduced to an advisory role, but that would also mean disbanding the strange shadow-army directly under their control. The Iranian constitution and state institutions are effective enough, there just needs to be a quick switachroo at the executive level, probably with the cooperation of the army proper. Current sabre-rattling makes this more difficult of course.
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Azrael
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Re: Iran

Post by Azrael »

Ibrahim wrote:Under the current organization of the state, the Iranian president is a figurehead.
True. However, they do have the power of the "bully pulpit", to some extent (less than a U.S. President does).

Also, the Supreme Leader is getting pretty old and his health hasn't been good for years. When he dies or is incapacitated, there may be a power vacuum that could be filled, perhaps temporarily or longer term, by the President and the Cabinet. Also, in that case the President may have some influence over who will be the Supreme Leader. The Current Supreme Leader used to be the President.
Even if he wasn't selected from pre-approved candidates and was allowed to advocate a reformist program, he would have no power to actually implement it. If the Supreme Council were smarter they might go ahead and let a reformist president get elected and say whatever he wanted while nothing changed, but they aren't a group to learn new tricks.
That could get dangerous. The President may disagree with the Supreme Leader in public, figuring that as an elected leader, he may get the loyalty of the streets and some sectors of the military if push comes to shove.
Probably the aftermath of some kind of Iranian uprising would be the de facto concentration of power under the president while the Supreme Council is abolished or reduced to an advisory role, but that would also mean disbanding the strange shadow-army directly under their control.
That might come to pass once the current Supreme Leader dies, especially if his successor doesn't have his level of credibility.
The Iranian constitution and state institutions are effective enough, there just needs to be a quick switachroo at the executive level, probably with the cooperation of the army proper. Current sabre-rattling makes this more difficult of course.
I agree. I think that it could happen.

Interesting to note: former President Rafsanjani's "Combatant Clergy Association" has a lot of seats in the Assembly of Experts, including the chairman Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani. The Assembly of Experts chooses the Supreme Leader and, in theory, supervises his activities.
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