2012-2016: An insolvent and ungovernable United States?

[Alexis]

Excerpt of the Dec. 2011 edition of the Global European Anticipation Bulletin.
Recently put into the public domain by the LEAP laboratory so as publicize their predictive record...

Interesting notably for the reasoning that led them to predict the mess the US is more and more entering into. And what they saw regarding possible developments...

(TP and OWS will gain more influence)
This additional splitting into four parties/movements, with ideologies increasingly closed to the idea of any compromise, will strengthen Congress’ ungovernable nature and therefore the Federal government, since the President cannot do much when Congress hasn’t a secure majority and, on the contrary, it is deeply divided on the country’s broad direction (including the President’s role). The institutional system of the United States is totally helpless in the face of a four-party system, especially when this change represents a rejection of the current system.
Therefore, LEAP/E2020 expects an increase in the number of partial and short-term measures from 2013 (as we have seen already with these partial and last minute budget agreements to “keep the Federal State going" ), the inability to schedule the country’s main fiscal balances, and in 2014 at the latest (a new election year) a radicalization of competing arguments around a redefinition of what is the United States.
(...)
In summary, the current deadlock in Washington will become more marked from 2012 and become a source of widespread political chaos from 2013, knowing that powerful interests will be tempted to play politics of the worst kind to ensure the victory of a “savior” in 2016.

[Mr. Perfect]

This was the plan from the beginning of obama's term. The unavoidable outcome of electing liberal Democrats.

[Heracleum Persicum]

.


‘de-Americanization’


Already happening, now accelerating


World, the poor, were financing American living standard .. now things might reverse

U$ Dollar might drop dramatically, interest rate might go much higher, living standard much lower




.

[Mr. Perfect]

The natural result of electing Democrats. Remember Tinker, he said many times he wants America down a peg or two. Getting his wish, he must be really happy.

[noddy]

http://www.humantransit.org/2013/10/cit ... party.html

You might even separate urban from rural governance in a way that enables both to thrive, each at its proper scale, replacing the eternal struggle between these necessary opposites that makes today's political discourse so inane. The "size of government" debate is just a pointless and eternal struggle between urban and rural experience, both of which are right. Living in cities means relying on government for many things that the rural resident provides for herself, so of course the attitude toward government is different. But what's really logically different is the role of local government. Both urban and rural experience provide good reason to be suspicious of big-yet-distant national government, which can be as unresponsive to big-city mayors as it is to a Wyoming county official who just needs to get a bridge fixed.

At most of the urbanist and transportation conferences that I attend, though, any shrinking the national government role is met with horror.

[Enki]

Alexis I think that both Occupy and the Tea Party are on the wane now. Their influence over the populist base of their respective parties will continue, but I think populism is getting a bad rap in the US for the next decade.

[noddy]

if their is one thing you can say about the democrats and republicans, being popular isnt high on the list right now.

[Mr. Perfect]

Interventionists are never popular with junkies, so that explains one side of it. As for the drug dealers, obama has proven to be a very ineffective dealer.

[Ibrahim]

An insolvent and ungovernable United States?

Anybody trot out "failed state" yet? If not I'm going with "failed state" in the pool.

[Mr. Perfect]

The natural result of electing Democrats.

[noddy]

my inner redneck says that insolvent and ungovernable are admirable qualities, they dunna call it leverage fo nuttin.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Abbot and Costello and Mr.Perfect Colgate Comedy Hour

*outside ballpark- Abbot, Costello and Mr. P run into each other*

Costello: Hey Bud.

Abbot: Hey Lou .

Costello: Hey Mr. P

Mr. P: Hey Lou and Bud

Costello: [as if he just remembered a question] Say Bud...

Abbot: Yes, Lou?

Costello: Say, you got a mighty fine group of gents out there on the field.

Abbot: Yeah, they are the best of the best from Saint Louie and...

Costello: Yeah, they got a real good chance of taking the National League Pennant, but something's bothering me.

Abbot: Oh? What is it? What's wrong?

Costello: I'm trying to follow the team to, 'ya know, getta better handle on'em, root them on, but I'm not too familiar with the players.

Abbot: Oh yeah?

Costello: Yeah, could you help me out and give me some of the name so I can cheer'em on from the bleachers?

Abbot: Sure, Lou, Sure...

Costello: [happy] Okay, I'm sitting in the bleachers and I start here...I start with the firstbasemen. Who is on first.

Abbot: Yes.

Costello: The guy on first?

Abbot: Yes.

Costello: Who is the guy on first base?

Abbot: Yes

Costello: The guy playing first?

Abbot: Yes

Costello: The man you write into the lineup at first base.

Abbot: Who?

Costello: [pleading] Whaddya asking me for?

Abbot: I'm telling you, who is on first base.

Costello: Yes, that's what I'm asking.

Abbot: Who.

Costello: The guy on first?

Abbot: Yes.

Costello: Who is the guy on first base?

Abbot: Yes

Costello: The guy playing first?

Abbot: Yes

Costello: [exasperated] The man you write into the lineup at first base.

Abbot: Who?

Costello: Okay, okay. It's simple [ponders a moment] say, Bud...The first baseman gets paid right? By cheque?

Abbot: Sure, sure, we are a well payin' business.

Costello: And every week, when you go to write the cheques, you pay who on first?

Abbot: Exactly.

Costello: Who is it that you pay?

Abbot: Yes

Costello: The man that signs the cheques?

Abbot: Who.

Costello: [frustrated] Whaddya asking me for? I don't know!

Abbot: No, he plays third base.

Mr. Perfect: [disgusted] The natural result of Democrats running your baseball team.

[Mr. Perfect]

Boy when you're right you're right.

[Mr. Perfect]

my inner redneck says that insolvent and ungovernable are admirable qualities, they dunna call it leverage fo nuttin.

The real irony and I mean this dead serious is that Conservatives are actually trying to save the government and Liberals are doing everything they can to destroy it. It's an unbelievable irony.

[Enki]

my inner redneck says that insolvent and ungovernable are admirable qualities, they dunna call it leverage fo nuttin.

If it's good enough for Latin America it's good enough for me?

I read a bunch of quotes from Greeks expressing shock that the US would willingly go the way they had gone before.

[Juggernaut Nihilism]

my inner redneck says that insolvent and ungovernable are admirable qualities, they dunna call it leverage fo nuttin.

If it's good enough for Latin America it's good enough for me?

I read a bunch of quotes from Greeks expressing shock that the US would willingly go the way they had gone before.

That is a profound misunderstanding of the very basic differences between what happened in Greece and what's happening the U.S., though I hesitate to call anything so silly "profound".

[Ibrahim]

my inner redneck says that insolvent and ungovernable are admirable qualities, they dunna call it leverage fo nuttin.

If it's good enough for Latin America it's good enough for me?

I read a bunch of quotes from Greeks expressing shock that the US would willingly go the way they had gone before.

That is a profound misunderstanding of the very basic differences between what happened in Greece and what's happening the U.S., though I hesitate to call anything so silly "profound".

The economic causes may be very different, but the political fragmentation into traditional parties that no longer cooperate and their client extremist parties of literal commies and nazis that fight in the streets isn't so far fetched. It starts with contempt for the political system, and the Republicans are very proud of their contempt for government, as are the TP and fringe movements on the left. Fertile ground for black shirts and red guards.

[Mr. Perfect]

Tinker will tell you that the GOP and TP are big gubmint statists that live to serve the MIC so you'll have a big argument there.

I've been hearing the parties hate each other to death way back to before Woodrow. Before that there was that Civil War thing.

The only thing new under the sun is the coming insolvency and mass death that will go along with it.

[Zack Morris]

The most reliable predictor of TP self-identification is previous Republican affiliation. They never had a problem with wasteful government spending, foreign military expeditions, corporate welfare, market-distorting economic subsidies, or a massive surveillance state before they met Obama. But it's not even about Obama: it's about the GOP's backbone constituency losing their sense of control, privilege, and dominance in present day US culture. Government programs were broadly popular with both left and right in simpler times when they primarily benefited whites. But the more the nation has changed, the more uncomfortable the bitter clingers have become.

[Ibrahim]

The most reliable predictor of TP self-identification is previous Republican affiliation. They never had a problem with wasteful government spending, foreign military expeditions, corporate welfare, market-distorting economic subsidies, or a massive surveillance state before they met Obama. But it's not even about Obama: it's about the GOP's backbone constituency losing their sense of control, privilege, and dominance in present day US culture. Government programs were broadly popular with both left and right in simpler times when they primarily benefited whites. But the more the nation has changed, the more uncomfortable the bitter clingers have become.

And demographics bear this out. Furthermore the bulk of the TP "membership" are themselves recipients of the entitlements they seek to eliminate. But as vague and hypocritical as the TP may be they have managed to hugely influence one of the major political parties, for good or ill.

[Mr. Perfect]

The most reliable predictor of TP self-identification is previous Republican affiliation. They never had a problem with wasteful government spending, foreign military expeditions, corporate welfare, market-distorting economic subsidies, or a massive surveillance state before they met Obama.

As Ive been saying, you guys will have to sort this out. Some of you say the TP are practically Ted Kennedy liberals, others say gubmint hating anarchist. Pls make up your mind.

But it's not even about Obama: it's about the GOP's backbone constituency losing their sense of control, privilege, and dominance in present day US culture. Government programs were broadly popular with both left and right in simpler times when they primarily benefited whites.

They still primarily benefit whites, minoroites are far more worse off under Obama than whites. Do you follow the news. Are minorities even people to you. What planet do you hail from Zack Morris.

But the more the nation has changed, the more uncomfortable the bitter clingers have become.

OTOH the worse non whites do economically the more they like Obama who is doing it to them. The white libs seem to like screwing the minorities over as well. Who can explain Democrats.

[Zack Morris]

TPers are contrarians. They'll oppose whatever their political opponents are for. They want the "government out of their Medicare", federal $$$ to keep flowing into their economies, and love the military state, except when Obama's at the helm, in which case the NSA is a threat to their privacy.

Blacks and Hispanics were already at an enormous disadvantage before the recession hit. The disparity in household wealth and home ownership -- even with subprime lending -- was already appalling and the recession exacerbated the problem. That doesn't change the fact that the clingers are losing influence. The nation is becoming increasingly urbanized while the rural areas are left behind. Suburbia -- the TP stronghold built, ironically enough, with subsidized government money -- was decimated by the recession and TPers saw their wealth and purchasing power plummet.

There isn't one white America, there are two, and one of them is bitter as hell that they've become just like the minorities they used to condescend to.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

I think Zack Morris summed it up well: Two White Americas.

If the Tea Party represents, by his description, a political coalition of uneducated, poor, lower class whites, and the old middle class suburban dads, usually lower middle class, sometimes a bit higher, might own a small business, uncultured and only a little more educated than their political allies; who is this other White American party? Why would they celebrate the demise of the suburban dad in particular? Could it have anything to do with it being the only political and social threat to the power of the Zack Morrises of the world? Would it have anything to do with making sure to pull up the ladder before any average guido can grasp a rung? Very interesting implications; especially the part about blacks already having it bad, so we should focus on making poor whites just as disenfranchised.

[Typhoon]

4Vean4_-Mqs

[Enki]

There are no more threats to the Zack Morrises of the world.

The RepUblican party is divided. This will come back up in January. Teapublicans will either look meek and defeated if they threaten the economy with default again, or they will play the shenanigans again and Wall Street will fund their primary opponents.

Regardless the Tea Party is over as a serious faction in politics.

The more they misbehave in January the more seats Democrats pick up in November.