France

[Endovelico]

Il est temps de refonder une école française de pensée stratégique sur la Russie
Le Monde.fr | 02.06.2015 à 12h37 • Mis à jour le 02.06.2015 à 12h45
http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/201 ... ie&xtcr=21

Depuis plus d’un an et demi, la crise ukrainienne a mis en lumière le dynamisme des recompositions (géo)politiques dans l’espace postsoviétique : cette région du monde est en mouvement, et ce mouvement impacte directement l’espace européen. L’enjeu est loin d’être limité à l’avenir des marges orientales de l’Europe. La Russie et l’Europe partagent un même continent, et ne peuvent avoir des trajectoires historiques cloisonnées.

La crise ukrainienne – de la Crimée au Donbass – a également révélé à quel point le paysage stratégique français était polarisé sur la question. Non qu’il faille viser l’unanimité des points de vue. Mais on ne peut qu’être inquiet de la pauvreté relative du débat stratégique. Comme souvent concernant l’espace postsoviétique, seules les positions radicales aux deux extrêmes du spectre – la simple reproduction du discours du Kremlin, ou le renouveau d’une russophobie viscérale – se sont exprimées. Diabolisation et dénonciations ont laissé l’opinion publique, les médias et les cercles de décision politiques et économiques dans l’impasse intellectuelle et stratégique.

Cette situation est le résultat des nombreuses années durant lesquelles la Russie et les pays de l’ex-URSS ont été considérés comme les parents pauvres du débat stratégique français. L’État s’est largement désinvesti de son soutien à la production d’un savoir sur la région, accélérant la chute des études russes et eurasiennes dans les universités françaises, et siphonnant les fonds alloués à la connaissance des langues et contextes locaux. Dans les centres d’analyse stratégique, la zone Russie-Eurasie est devenue un secteur marginal, les jeunes esprits brillants étant invités à s’investir dans des sujets plus porteurs, ou n’arrivaient pas à accéder aux lieux de visibilité. Bien sûr, dans ce climat morose de désintérêt pour la région, quelques exceptions ont tenu bon et ont appris à gérer au mieux la rareté des fonds, de ressources humaines et de soutien administratif.

Il manque toutefois à la France une école de pensée globale structurée autour de trois grands enjeux :
- Faire dialoguer les spécialistes des questions de politique intérieure, d’identité et de culture avec ceux qui s’occupent du secteur économique et des politiques étrangères et de défense. On a vu à quel point la crise ukrainienne était au carrefour des questions intérieures et des questions internationales – et les guerres de mémoire en cours n’en sont qu’à leurs débuts.
- Favoriser le dialogue, courant dans le monde anglo-saxon mais absent en France, entre les think tanks et la recherche universitaire.
- Replacer les enjeux liés à la Russie dans un contexte global qui touche l’Europe de plein fouet : viennent à l’esprit, parmi bien d’autres, flux migratoires, désespérance sociale qui pousse à la radicalisation, nouvelles infrastructures transcontinentales chinoises, etc.

Sur la base d’un tel constat, il est temps de refonder une école française de pensée stratégique sur la Russie. Temps de faire tomber les clichés sur une Russie qui ne serait qu’un monstre froid avide d’expansion territoriale, ou à l’autre extrême, d’une Russie seule en mesure de sauver l’Europe de ses démons libéraux et transatlantiques. Temps d’avoir une vision proactive vis-à-vis de la Russie et de mettre en place de nouvelles plateformes où la recherche sur ce pays puisse s’élaborer en prenant en compte la profondeur historique, la dimension économique, les contextes locaux ou encore l’expression du pluralisme qui existe en Russie même. Temps que tous ceux qui contribuent à la prise de décision puissent s’appuyer sur des analyses objectives – qui intègrent aussi bien le long passé des relations franco-russes que les tensions et rivalités contemporaines – et soient libérés des différents lobbies qui se sont multipliés ces dernières années, et qui cherchent à influencer nos perceptions.

L’Allemagne vient de décider, en janvier 2015, de financer un nouvel institut d’étude entièrement dédié à la Russie et l’espace eurasiatique, doté d’un budget de 2,5 millions d’euros. La France aurait avantage à suivre cet exemple. Il ne s’agit pas de mettre en place une nouvelle institution qui viendrait s’ajouter aux autres mais de créer des synergies nouvelles dépassant les traditionnels blocages franco-français et les concurrences institutionnelles, ainsi que de générer des analyses collectives libérées de concepts trop chargés idéologiquement.

Il serait dommageable que Paris reste silencieux sur des enjeux qui touchent à l’avenir de l’Europe. De plus, une nouvelle école de pensée stratégique sur la Russie servira également de relais de la politique française d’influence globale au sein de l’Union européenne et dans le dialogue avec les États-Unis.

Une certitude demeure : la Russie sera encore là dans les prochaines décennies. Mieux la comprendre doit nous permettre d’anticiper les trajectoires stratégiques pour affirmer les intérêts de la France et de l’Europe dans cette aire géopolitique essentielle.

Mathieu Boulègue, associé pour le cabinet de conseil AESMA, Pôle Eurasie
Isabelle Facon, chercheur, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS)
Kevin Limonier, chercheur, Institut Français de Géopolitique, Université Paris VIII
Marlène Laruelle, professeur, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
Jérôme Pasinetti, président du cabinet de conseil AESMA
Anaïs Marin, Marie Curie Fellow, Collegium Civitas, Varsovie
Jean Radvanyi, professeur des universités, INALCO
Jean-Robert Raviot, professeur, études russes et post-soviétiques, Université Paris Ouest Nanterre
David Teurtrie, chercheur associé au Centre de recherches Europe-Eurasie (CREE), INALCO
Julien Vercueil, maître de conférences de sciences économiques, INALCO
Henry Zipper de Fabiani, ancien ambassadeur de France

It's good to see that there are yet some thinking people in Europe. Sorry it's in French but I suppose most of you will be able to read and understand it.

[Alexis]

It's good to see that there are yet some thinking people in Europe. Sorry it's in French but I suppose most of you will be able to read and understand it.

Indeed, interesting article, and very right. In a nutshell, what they say is:

Debate about Russia in France is poor, some indulging in radical Russophobia while others merely duplicate uncritically Kremlin propaganda, which is very damaging because when one does not think, one becomes victim of influence strategies by who wants to think in your place, while Russia will remain an important neighbor in the foreseeable future. We need to create a multidisciplinary research institute specifically devoted on the subject of Russia and more generally the Eurasian space, so as to think by ourselves and for the long term.

[Heracleum Persicum]

.

We need to create a multidisciplinary research institute specifically devoted on the subject of Russia and more generally the Eurasian space, so as to think by ourselves and for the long term.

.

seconded


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[Endovelico]

[Endovelico]

[YMix]

French National Front expels founder Jean-Marie Le Pen

France's Jean-Marie Le Pen has been expelled from the far-right National Front (FN) following a feud with daughter and party leader Marine.

Mr Le Pen, who was honorary president, was dismissed after a three-hour extraordinary party congress.

He was initially suspended back in May, after he repeated his view that the Holocaust was "a detail of history".

Ms Le Pen took over as leader in 2011 and has tried to steer the party away from its racist and anti-Semitic past.

The National Front (FN) was founded by Mr Le Pen in 1972. The 86-year-old still holds a seat in the European Parliament and a post as a regional councillor in the south of France.

[...]

[Endovelico]

French National Front expels founder Jean-Marie Le Pen

France's Jean-Marie Le Pen has been expelled from the far-right National Front (FN) following a feud with daughter and party leader Marine.

Mr Le Pen, who was honorary president, was dismissed after a three-hour extraordinary party congress.

He was initially suspended back in May, after he repeated his view that the Holocaust was "a detail of history".

Ms Le Pen took over as leader in 2011 and has tried to steer the party away from its racist and anti-Semitic past.

The National Front (FN) was founded by Mr Le Pen in 1972. The 86-year-old still holds a seat in the European Parliament and a post as a regional councillor in the south of France.

[...]

Sooner or later voting for the National Front will become an acceptable option for many French people. A government led by Marine Le Pen might be possible sooner than many people think, and it could change Europe beyond recognition. It could become the first step towards changing Europe's cooperation from the US to Russia...

[Mr. Perfect]

How do assault rifles keep getting into France?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/ ... 1-14-59-34

PARIS (AP) -- One serves in the Air Force, another recently served in Afghanistan in the National Guard, another is studying physical therapy in Sacramento - and all three Americans are being hailed as heroes for tackling and disarming a gunman they happened to encounter on a high-speed Amsterdam-Paris train.

Air Force serviceman Spencer Stone remained hospitalized Saturday after being stabbed, though the Pentagon said the injury was not life-threatening. Another passenger was wounded by a handgun in the attack Friday night, according to a police union official.

[Typhoon]

French National Front expels founder Jean-Marie Le Pen

France's Jean-Marie Le Pen has been expelled from the far-right National Front (FN) following a feud with daughter and party leader Marine.

Mr Le Pen, who was honorary president, was dismissed after a three-hour extraordinary party congress.

He was initially suspended back in May, after he repeated his view that the Holocaust was "a detail of history".

Ms Le Pen took over as leader in 2011 and has tried to steer the party away from its racist and anti-Semitic past.

The National Front (FN) was founded by Mr Le Pen in 1972. The 86-year-old still holds a seat in the European Parliament and a post as a regional councillor in the south of France.

[...]

Sooner or later voting for the National Front will become an acceptable option for many French people. A government led by Marine Le Pen might be possible sooner than many people think, and it could change Europe beyond recognition. It could become the first step towards changing Europe's cooperation from the US to Russia...

Unlikely. While the French have a history of being sympathetic to Russia, they typically act in their own self interest.

[Endovelico]

Sooner or later voting for the National Front will become an acceptable option for many French people. A government led by Marine Le Pen might be possible sooner than many people think, and it could change Europe beyond recognition. It could become the first step towards changing Europe's cooperation from the US to Russia...

Unlikely. While the French have a history of being sympathetic to Russia, they typically act in their own self interest.

Precisely because France tends to act in its own interest it will rather be friends with Russia than with the US. Friends with, not vassals to... Marine Le Pen understands that and she isn't the only one in French politics to think so...

[Alexis]

Sooner or later voting for the National Front will become an acceptable option for many French people. A government led by Marine Le Pen might be possible sooner than many people think, and it could change Europe beyond recognition. It could become the first step towards changing Europe's cooperation from the US to Russia...

Recent opinion polls predict 28 to 30% for MLP at first round of next presidential election - more than for any other candidate, followed by clear victory of right candidate (Sarkozy or another) at second round, by as much as 60% to 40%.

Obviously, we are two years from the election, and things could still change a lot, in one direction or another.

However, one should note that although MLP made enormous progress since 2011 when she became FN's president - her father polled at around 10-12% at that time, she is still not in a position to win in 2017. For that to happen, she would have to continue to progress at similar rythm as she did during the last few years.

Regarding Russia and America, it's not an either / or:
- The FN wants France to leave NATO - that is the integrated command, not the alliance - and return to the position she had from 1966, which was discontinued progressively between 1996 and 2008. That would not mean disregarding relations with America
- On Russia, the FN is not pro-Russian. However, it is not anti-Russian, therefore wants discontinuation of so-called "economic sanctions" against Russia... and absence of will to economically aggress Russia is enough to be accused of being "pro-Russian", these days...

[Heracleum Persicum]

.


Civil servant job perks trigger French Socialist row

What should have been a consensual reform to grant France’s civil servants their first pay rise in years turned into a bitter feud after the country’s free-speaking economy minister challenged their privileged status.

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[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Two reported explosions in Paris at football stadium? Shootings in a nightclub near city center

3 confirmed dead

BBC reporting slightly differently from what I heard on the local radio.

[YMix]

Sky News says at least 30 dead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg

[Mr. Perfect]

What did France do to provoke this?

[Mr. Perfect]

They stayed out if Iraq so it must be for Libya.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

They stayed out if Iraq so it must be for Libya.

Reports are they were shouting, “This is for Syria, this is for Syria.”.

Variety

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

5 more explosions. 7 attack sites.

edit: it goes without saying that the lot of us here are praying for the lot over there

[Typhoon]

Concern and condolences to Alexis and all of France.

[Note: this is neither the time or place to grandstand one's beliefs. Such posts will be summarily deleted.]

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Suspect in custody claims to be sent by Isis, came from Syria.

CNN

[Mr. Perfect]

Wow. 149 dead. Sounds like it will go up.

[HAL 10000]

My condolences to Alexis.

I also have relatives in France. We shall see what they think. One of them told me that in the future during the second half of this century the choice will be between the Sharia Law and Marine Le Pen.


Thus, by the end of this century, even without becoming the majority, it is possible that there will be Sharia law in many parts of Europe.

But seriously, if terrorists just use machine guns and grenades in crowded cities, the kill ratio can be at least 1 to 10, as in the latest event. There is no way to stop that. A terrorist with a dozen grenades in any subway station can kill at least 20 people.

[Heracleum Persicum]

.

My condolences to all France and Europe, to Alexis

A real tragedy, so many innocents killed.

Speechless.

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[kmich]

Prayers for France and for our world.

[noddy]

crazy.