The Donald....the newest savior.....

[Simple Minded]

If he doesn't get the nomination (likely) then there will run as an independent and will probably win the 4 way.

I would love to see a 4 way contest for POUTS (Freudian typo, works that way too). The more competition, the better.

[Alexis]

I don't think Trump will get to 1237.

What makes you think so?

Looking at the figures I cited, the picture seems clear to me.

If he does, Hillary beats him easily. You many not know but many non Trump Republicans have pledged to never vote for Trump. He cannot win against Hillary straight up.

I'm not so sure.

Clinton would be the favorite, no question about that, she holds a 10 point lead over Trump in polls to date.
At the same time, she has quite many fragilities:
- Risk of actual prosecution because of email affair
- Panama Papers showing many of those people who helped the Clintons get very rich from public service
- Not liked by much, as the perfect "insider" at a time of strong populist reaction, making it more difficult to convince part of the Democrat base to actually go vote for her. That would definitly be true of many of the people Sanders convinced of coming out of abstention

Question will be whether those fragilities will succeed in eroding her lead during the 6 months left to the election. An open question: during next months, will the populist reaction continue, abate or intensify?

Trump will be the challenger, but he will attack strongly his opponent as a puppet of her donators - Saudi, Wall Street and other popular folks - and he will also measurably tone down his speech: he has already made the point that he's "different from the others", he will aim at doning the suit of the unifier.

At present, in the eyes of many, Clinton vs Trump means "Bought and paid for, corrupt, but known quantity" vs "Crazy clown - even if sometime surprisingly more than right". Trump will aim at changing the perception of his person, while maintaining the perception of Clinton. Which is not impossible: Clinton has been on the front of the US political scene for 20+ years and ideas about her are already settled in stone, while Trump remains quite fresh and ideas about him may yet be quite mobile.

First you're the mean one, at the beginning of a negociation, then you become the nice guy so as to close the deal.

No guarantee that he will succeed, but he will stand a definite chance.

[Mr. Perfect]

Trump has less than 50% chance to nomination. The points could be argued but no point now. Just let it unfold.

It sounds like this is not being reported in your area but there are some in the GOP who are vowing to not vote Trump in the general election. This is unprecedented and is the direct reason he is down in the polls (he used to be tied). If not for the never trump hashtag he would have won and the GOP would be headed for the promised land.

But the never trump will guarantee 100% chance hrc wins, Trump has zero chance of winning.

[Mr. Perfect]

If he doesn't get the nomination (likely) then there will run as an independent and will probably win the 4 way.

I would love to see a 4 way contest for POUTS (Freudian typo, works that way too). The more competition, the better.

We would have a President who won with less than 30% of the vote.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

More competition may allow you to sort party affiliations better, but it makes it harder to actually get anything you want into policy.

[Mr. Perfect]

It would be a carnival like we've never seen before, but someone would eventually win and make the best they could of it.

[Simple Minded]

More competition may allow you to sort party affiliations better, but it makes it harder to actually get anything you want into policy.

Isn't that the safety valve theory of democracy?

Lots of choices, lots of change, constant mutation, average becomes the accepted norm?

The ability to custom tailor your Mao suit?

[manolo]

Trump has less than 50% chance to nomination. The points could be argued but no point now. Just let it unfold.

It sounds like this is not being reported in your area but there are some in the GOP who are vowing to not vote Trump in the general election. This is unprecedented and is the direct reason he is down in the polls (he used to be tied). If not for the never trump hashtag he would have won and the GOP would be headed for the promised land.

But the never trump will guarantee 100% chance hrc wins, Trump has zero chance of winning.

Mr P,

It does seem that the false shepherd has been outed. I hope to God he still makes the nomination.

Alex.

[Mr. Perfect]

I doubt he'll make it. But it will likely trigger a 4 way race he ends up winning in november. More to come.

[manolo]

I doubt he'll make it. But it will likely trigger a 4 way race he ends up winning in november. More to come.

Mr P,

Without the nomination, a run as independent would be useful, but I think he is too clever for that route.

Alex.

[Nonc Hilaire]

It seems Tea Party astroturfer Charles Koch may like Hillary better than the Republican choices. Goes to show the tea party thing was just an internal GOP power play.

But in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” which aired Sunday morning, billionaire industrialist and philanthropist of the far-right Charles Koch says given the performance of former president Bill Clinton and her own record, he thinks “it’s possible” that a Hillary Clinton presidency would be better at fulfilling his libertarian and pro-business agenda than any of the Republicans currently in the running.

Asked by journalist Jonathan Karl if he could actually see himself supporting Clinton in a hypothetical general election against Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, or John Kasich – Koch smiled, but didn’t say no.

“We would have to believe her actions would be quite different than her rhetoric. Let me put it that way,” Koch responded.

http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/it ... ce_for_him

[Heracleum Persicum]

.


American democracy is rigged
Republican and Democratic parties functioning like two identical but competing Orwellian Ministries of Truth.

.

False claim to democracy

The Democratic Party, therefore, rules over this false claim to democracy the same way the Guardian Council of octogenarian Super mad mullahs rules over the Islamic Republic.

In other words, the free and fair formation of political parties that is supposed to be the finest fruit of a democracy has paradoxically degenerated into the most powerful impediment to democracy.

The question is: What is the result of these undemocratic "closed primaries"?

These "closed primaries" are the bottlenecks of a closed political culture, preventing the possibility of any liberating breakthrough into a foreclosed political system.

At the heart of this imperial republic that effectively rules the world with its military might (not with any moral courage or political legitimacy), we have an electoral process that systematically bars any critical judgment of its own citizens to disrupt its mindless militarism. American citizens are as much trapped inside this corrupt system as people around the globe are at the mercy of its fighter jets and drone attacks.

These two parties, Republican and Democratic, are today functioning like two identical but competing Orwellian Ministries of Truth - systematically, consistently, unabashedly disallowing any critical thinking or nonviolent democratic action to enter and disrupt the always-already rigged election.

.

Good article.

As said, American system same as the Mullah system

Poor Joe .. poor Joe

.

[Alexis]

Trump will be the challenger to Clinton.

Supposedly with very little chance of winning. However, that is discounting potential spoilers ...





Then, at a certain point, and admittedly speaking from a distance, you have to recognize that all bets are off, and in principle surprises could happen.

I mean: if any one of us had been told last June of the Trump adventure of the next 10 months... wouldn't we have laughed in the face of the guy imagining such a wildly improbable scenario?

We may be tempted to deny it, because human mind has a tendency to reconstruct all past events as "logical": trying to discern their structures, we grasp at anything that might provide some explanation, and we may even think that "it had to happen this way".

Let's stop denying it for a minute : the events of the last 6-8 months are not logical, and we are already in la-la-land.

And since we are in la-la-land, why couldn't a candidate HRC has a 10 percentage points advantage over use the six months left to the election to capture the lead, even if Mr. FBI does not intrude?

If these were normal times, I'd say Trump has a 10% chance against Clinton, and then only because of her FBI risk. But these are not normal times.

This may not be a revolt, Your Majesty.

You're not in Kansas anymore, and my personal estimate would be 1 chance in 3 for Trump against Clinton.
and I almost wrote 1 in 2...

[Mr. Perfect]

Trump will probably not win the nomination.

[Mr. Perfect]

It's always interesting to read the musings of foreigners on the internal politics of another country.

There is nothing "illogical" about the last 6-8 months, the Billionaire outsider was already done with Ross Perot, twice, and Donald Trump has been floated as a Presidential candidate for 10-15 years. A number of issues Trump has championed are very long term conservative GOP issues.

Trump would win this election but for the self destructive tendency of a small but large enough faction in the GOP, #nevertrump, who are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If the GOP were to behave normally Trump would win without much effort.

[Heracleum Persicum]

GsBS6izj304

[Alexis]

The biggest mistake of his life

Poor guy... let him try being amicable to one of these beauties next time

It's always interesting to read the musings of foreigners on the internal politics of another country.

There is nothing "illogical" about the last 6-8 months, the Billionaire outsider was already done with Ross Perot, twice, and Donald Trump has been floated as a Presidential candidate for 10-15 years. A number of issues Trump has championed are very long term conservative GOP issues.

Trump would win this election but for the self destructive tendency of a small but large enough faction in the GOP, #nevertrump, who are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If the GOP were to behave normally Trump would win without much effort.

Well, it's obviously possible that I'm very wrong, because living too far from the USA.

What strikes me nonetheless is that quite many Americans seem to have been surprised that Trump was such an enduring candidate. He was first evaluated as a passing fad, like e.g. Carson proved to have been, on top for some time, then almost forgotten a few short months later. Seeing why this Trump phenomenon was in fact logical... after the fact, yes that's possible. As for those who saw Trump coming, they were rare indeed.

So it seems to me that a given event being seen after the fact as logical, has in fact very little predictive value. I can quite easily picture myself in November thinking that it was logical indeed that HRC would crush Trump. Just as easily as I can picture myself thinking at that time that it was only logical that Trump would crush HRC. Hence my quite strong doubts that the present 10-point head Clinton enjoys over Trump in US-wide polls should be given too much meaning.

Anyway... time will tell. Whether Trump gets the nomination (the opposite would surprise me a lot), whether he can win in November.

[manolo]

Trump would win this election but for the self destructive tendency of a small but large enough faction in the GOP, #nevertrump, who are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If the GOP were to behave normally Trump would win without much effort.

Mr P,

Its an ill wind that blows no one any good.

Alex.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Well, it's obviously possible that I'm very wrong, because living too far from the USA.

What strikes me nonetheless is that quite many Americans seem to have been surprised that Trump was such an enduring candidate. He was first evaluated as a passing fad, like e.g. Carson proved to have been, on top for some time, then almost forgotten a few short months later. Seeing why this Trump phenomenon was in fact logical... after the fact, yes that's possible. As for those who saw Trump coming, they were rare indeed.

So it seems to me that a given event being seen after the fact as logical, has in fact very little predictive value. I can quite easily picture myself in November thinking that it was logical indeed that HRC would crush Trump. Just as easily as I can picture myself thinking at that time that it was only logical that Trump would crush HRC. Hence my quite strong doubts that the present 10-point head Clinton enjoys over Trump in US-wide polls should be given too much meaning.

hear! hear!

[Mr. Perfect]

What strikes me nonetheless is that quite many Americans seem to have been surprised that Trump was such an enduring candidate.

Only the establishment.

He was first evaluated as a passing fad,

By the establishment.

like e.g. Carson proved to have been, on top for some time, then almost forgotten a few short months later. Seeing why this Trump phenomenon was in fact logical... after the fact, yes that's possible. As for those who saw Trump coming, they were rare indeed.

No, there are/were many of us. I detailed this whole thing many months ago, but CS buried it somewhere. I detailed the whole thing down to the dots, last summer some time.

So it seems to me that a given event being seen after the fact as logical, has in fact very little predictive value.

My predictive powers were very, very, very good. You just need to listen to different people.

I can quite easily picture myself in November thinking that it was logical indeed that HRC would crush Trump. Just as easily as I can picture myself thinking at that time that it was only logical that Trump would crush HRC. Hence my quite strong doubts that the present 10-point head Clinton enjoys over Trump in US-wide polls should be given too much meaning.

There is no mystery, I've been saying it over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again, last summer Trump trailed HRC by 20 points, and he had tied her by the time the primaries had begun. However, a month or 2 in and Glenn Beck and some other church type conservatives started the "nevertrump" movement, and he then dropped 10 points worth of GOP support. If not for Glenn Beck and co Trump would have a pretty smooth ride to the WH, as I predicted last summer.

All of this was known, none of this is a mystery.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

A majority of 'nevertrump'ers' will come around because a majority of them have never been 'notvoters', and that ritual will be more important than their 'nevertrump'-isms.

[Mr. Perfect]

Big big gamble.

[Mr. Perfect]

This lady is a star. Reminds me of so many "conversations" I've had on here.

neoAfy1BNy8

[Alexis]

Mr P,

Its an ill wind that blows no one any good.

Alex.

I'm not sure.

Even if you think Trump does not bring any solution whatsoever, both the Trump and Sanders phenomenons have at a the same time revealed and expressed the fact that a very large part of the American people is strongly dissatisfied with the leadership of their preferred party (no matter whether Rep or Dem) and is willing to act, instead of merely taking refuge in abstention.

And revealing the extent of that reject, whose primary responsibility lays without doubt on leaderships of those two parties, is in itself a good thing. For revealing it in such an obvious way is the first compulsory step in solving that strong dissatisfaction.

Now about solutions, I'd propose to think over those two facts:

1. Intensification of free trade has led to investments in industrial capacity going to the lowest salary nations provided they had minimum capability. Resulting de-industrialization of the US (paralleled in many E.U. nations) has been very profitable to the upper level of US society but has led many middle level types to unemployment and / or poverty, without any realistic prospect to rebound. More free trade, as championed by both Rep and Dem establishments, is not in the best interest of the majority of US population.
Both Trump and Sanders propose to do something about that.

2. Illegal immigration to the US is large, actually much larger than to E.U. countries until 2014. The estimated 11 million illegals in the US are, after correcting for population, about 4 times more numerous than their counterparts in France or other E.U. countries. Comparing now to the chaotic migration of 2015, the number of US illegals is, after correcting for population, the equivalent of almost 3 years of chaotic migration to Germany (which received almost all of it).
Now America is obviously historically expert at assimilating newcomers, US "melting pot" is famous. However a question about numbers is valid: does assimilation work so well when the rythm is so high and culturally uniform new population is mostly concentrated in a few States where it becomes almost dominant? And another question about jobs: when jobs are becoming scarcer for middle or low education Americans, because of free trade, is it the right time to share the few jobs that remain with large numbers of newcomers?
Note that these questions are valid even without any hostility to Mexicans or other Latino-Americans. French people like me are culturally just as close to Mexicans as we are to Americans, maybe even closer to Mexicans. And suggesting that Mexican immigrants are mostly thieves or rapists is obviously wrong. That doesn't change the question about numbers not the question about jobs.
Trump proposes to do something about that.

Even if you are right to worry about and reject Trump and Sanders, even if Clinton is elected by a landslide in November, those two facts won't disappear.

And I can't see how the anger of American people can be abated without doing something about those facts. Something major.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Big big gamble.

Which is strangely fitting for a Trump campaign/presidency.

Yes, it would've been nice if Beck&crew weren't emotionally incontinent about Trump. They've done their damage. But they've been self-harming for a while now- I don't think Beck likes winning, and he has a financial incentive to not win.

As I was saying a few weeks ago, Limbaugh- who I understanding is in the Cruz column- is the one to watch. He's the entertainer-bellwether; and while I've no doubt he's all in for Cruz, he has hardly been damaging to Trump. Remember, at this point in the last two elections, he was killing McCain/Romney.