On the Nature of Things | Forum

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

My post here in North Korea threat disappeared .. seems CIA does not want American Joe know the truth


Come on, who deleted my post ?


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Doc wrote:.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/08/japan ... ium=Social

Japan Considers Preemptive Strikes Against North Korea

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Heracleum Persicum wrote:Why everything else is fake news but not "Korean News", Doc

The combination of these factors strongly suggests that test preparations are well underway, including the installation of instrumentation. The imagery, however, does not provide any definitive evidence of either a nuclear device or the timing of a test.

Japan Weighs Plans for S. Korea Evacuation over Nuclear Crisis: Report

by Reuters

North Korea does not test nuclear weapon to mark founder’s birthday

This approach to North Korea is relatively new,” said James Kim of the Asan Institute of Policy Studies in Seoul. “The approach in the past has been very calculated.”

That has gone out the window with talk about military options, he said. “We always knew all these options were there, but no one was bold enough to go down that path. It’s a new approach.”

Some in Beijing are noticing the shift, too.

“It should be noted that there is a personality difference between Trump and Obama,” the Global Times newspaper wrote Friday. The paper does not speak for the Chinese government on policy but often reflects a strain of thinking within the Communist Party.

“Trump is also willing to show he is different. Bombing Syria helps him to show that,” it continued, while noting that he was far from “revolutionary” because he dispatched only missiles, not troops.

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

S2FGA3Z-oYM

Doc wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/no ... f01823d676

North Korea does not test nuclear weapon to mark founder’s birthday

This approach to North Korea is relatively new,” said James Kim of the Asan Institute of Policy Studies in Seoul. “The approach in the past has been very calculated.”

That has gone out the window with talk about military options, he said. “We always knew all these options were there, but no one was bold enough to go down that path. It’s a new approach.”

Some in Beijing are noticing the shift, too.

“It should be noted that there is a personality difference between Trump and Obama,” the Global Times newspaper wrote Friday. The paper does not speak for the Chinese government on policy but often reflects a strain of thinking within the Communist Party.

“Trump is also willing to show he is different. Bombing Syria helps him to show that,” it continued, while noting that he was far from “revolutionary” because he dispatched only missiles, not troops.

If the United States were to attempt to launch a preemptive strike on North Korea, the regime in Pyongyang could do significant damage to both South Korea and Japan—not to mention U.S. bases in those nations.

One the reasons previous U.S. Administrations have left the volatile nuclear-armed hermit kingdom alone is because of the sheer destructive power the Kim regime might unleash in the event of war. Indeed, it would be South Korean and Japanese civilians who would take the brunt of Pyongyang’s wrath in the event of war.

“If there is a war, there is no way the U.S. can prevent massive damage to South Korea and significant damage to Japan,” Vasily Kashin, a senior fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics told The National Interest. “It would be a humanitarian disaster and a shock for global economy. There are some 24 to 25 nuclear power plant reactors in the South. The North has these hundreds of missiles which are hard to stop.”

Indeed, Pyongyang’s missiles could hit most of Korea and Japan—and it is possible that North Korea might have enough weapons to saturate U.S. and allied missile defenses. “2000 SRBM launchers—that includes KN-02, Scud and the Nodong,” Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey told The National Interest. “That means several hundred Scud and Nodongs.”

North Korea’s extended range Scuds have a roughly 1,000 km range while the Nodong can hit targets as far away as 1,200 km. Lewis said that Pyongyang’s missiles might have some reliability issues, but there are enough of them to do very significant damage to South Korea and Japan. Indeed, North Korea is building the extended range Scud for the express purpose of having more missiles available. “The ER Scud is designed to be a cheaper alternative to the Nodong, so that North Korea can build more missiles,” Lewis said.

Moreover, in the event of a war—North Korea is likely to use nuclear weapons to offset its conventional weakness. Pyongyang’s conventional forces are no match for the United States and its allies, but nuclear weapons are the great leveler. “If you have a general war, the North Korean plan is to nuke U.S. forces through South Korea and Japan,” Lewis said.

It’s not clear now many nuclear weapons North Korea has at its disposal, but it does have them. Moreover, while some doubt that the Pyongyang has miniaturized its nuclear weapons to the point where they could fit atop a missile, Lewis says that North Korea already possesses the technology. “That was the stated purpose of the fifth tests. To validate the standardized design that will arm all warheads,” Lewis said.

As for how many nuclear weapons North Korea has at its disposal, estimates vary. “Hard to say,” Lewis said. “More than 10, less than a 100. Probably closer to 10 than 100.”

Alexis wrote:Here is a useful reminder and summary of what Pyongyang could do in case it was attacked.

How North Korea Could Kill Millions of People

If the United States were to attempt to launch a preemptive strike on North Korea, the regime in Pyongyang could do significant damage to both South Korea and Japan—not to mention U.S. bases in those nations.

One the reasons previous U.S. Administrations have left the volatile nuclear-armed hermit kingdom alone is because of the sheer destructive power the Kim regime might unleash in the event of war. Indeed, it would be South Korean and Japanese civilians who would take the brunt of Pyongyang’s wrath in the event of war.

“If there is a war, there is no way the U.S. can prevent massive damage to South Korea and significant damage to Japan,” Vasily Kashin, a senior fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics told The National Interest. “It would be a humanitarian disaster and a shock for global economy. There are some 24 to 25 nuclear power plant reactors in the South. The North has these hundreds of missiles which are hard to stop.”

Indeed, Pyongyang’s missiles could hit most of Korea and Japan—and it is possible that North Korea might have enough weapons to saturate U.S. and allied missile defenses. “2000 SRBM launchers—that includes KN-02, Scud and the Nodong,” Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey told The National Interest. “That means several hundred Scud and Nodongs.”

North Korea’s extended range Scuds have a roughly 1,000 km range while the Nodong can hit targets as far away as 1,200 km. Lewis said that Pyongyang’s missiles might have some reliability issues, but there are enough of them to do very significant damage to South Korea and Japan. Indeed, North Korea is building the extended range Scud for the express purpose of having more missiles available. “The ER Scud is designed to be a cheaper alternative to the Nodong, so that North Korea can build more missiles,” Lewis said.

Moreover, in the event of a war—North Korea is likely to use nuclear weapons to offset its conventional weakness. Pyongyang’s conventional forces are no match for the United States and its allies, but nuclear weapons are the great leveler. “If you have a general war, the North Korean plan is to nuke U.S. forces through South Korea and Japan,” Lewis said.

It’s not clear now many nuclear weapons North Korea has at its disposal, but it does have them. Moreover, while some doubt that the Pyongyang has miniaturized its nuclear weapons to the point where they could fit atop a missile, Lewis says that North Korea already possesses the technology. “That was the stated purpose of the fifth tests. To validate the standardized design that will arm all warheads,” Lewis said.

As for how many nuclear weapons North Korea has at its disposal, estimates vary. “Hard to say,” Lewis said. “More than 10, less than a 100. Probably closer to 10 than 100.”

My two hypotheses about Washington's position on the NK topic.

1 - It's a bluff. When NK visibly continues testing of missiles and / or nuclear weapons, with or without increased Chinese pressure, the US government will cover their embarrassment the best they can - that is, not very well - and switch to another topic entirely.

2 - It's a plot for an anti-Chinese war disguised as bluff. Even if Trump has not thought about it, his handlers - those before whom he bowed when he switched his positions to bellicist - know very well that Pyongyang won't cede. They plan to attack NK then, knowing full well that the war will be a disaster. A disaster in China's backyard. Which is the point: China is America's rival superpower, therefore creating a huge havoc in her backyard is in the cold interest of US global preeminence, and this havoc will rhetorically be attributed to China: "You couldn't control your client state!". As for South Korea and Japan, they are mere collateral damage.


I strongly hope I'm too imaginative about this N°2 hypothesis.

Thing is that large wars have already happened in the past, major nations have already started such wars for ulterior motives. Therefore, this could happen again.

Also, I have a very hard time believing that Trump's handlers can't see that NK won't stop its missile and nuclear tests like they are demanding. And if they do see that... it means they do have an ulterior motive.


Being French, I thank again De Gaulle for having had the strategic acumen to put our defense in our own hands, with a nuclear deterrence that prevents us ever being used as pawns for some superpower's global interests, or deemed mere collateral damage in its endeavours.

Trump was maybe even more correct than he thought when during his campaign he ventured to say that South Korea and Japan should build a nuclear deterrence of their own.

US official: With eye on North Korea, China puts bombers on 'high alert'

By Ryan Browne and Elise Labott, CNN

Updated 6:58 PM ET, Thu April 20, 2017
China & North Korea: A complicated relationship

Alexis wrote:.

Latest cover of Der Spiegel, a very popular German newsmagazine



"Game of Death
Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un risk nuclear war"

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Heracleum Persicum wrote:1nGS0RtbApw


State visit, Iranian Khamnei in North Korea

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Alexis wrote:

A bit caricatural? Possibly.

But this picture is not wrong...