Understanding the permanent Democrat Superminority

[Mr. Perfect]

If you can find the time, go back and actually read your pre-2016 POTUS election prediction posts.

I covered almost all of it in the post. You should read it.

[noddy]

democrats are going to be a super minority.
democrats are going to dominate politics and haul conservatives off to the gas ovens.
progressive media is dead.
progressive media control is going to unperson all conservatives.

you will always be right, you have both sides covered constantly.

You messed it all up.

1 In obama's first term I predicted rail cars.
2 In obama's second term I predicted end times
3 After obamacare website failed I predicted end of democrat party
4 I predicted Trump would lose popular vote by 2-3%. My prediction was dead on the money, possibly the most accurate prediction made in the election. And it was based on hard numbers, not anyone's poll or gut instinct. Sometime if you guys are interested in my methodology I will share it, just let me know.
5 I predicted the end of the left wing MSM

So lets see how I did.

1 Rail cars, both literal and figurative are now underway. So my timing was a little off, but overall I am right. Leftists have it in them to put people in rail cars and unperson, as we see with social media and other developments. You don't seem bothered by it, but a point in my favor
2 End times is still on the table, but a little more complicated. So TBD
3 Dead on right. Right on the money.
4.Dead on right on the money
5 Failed prediction, so far. I have learned to never underestimate the leftist. The potential for derangement and insanity. To create alternate realities of Russian hacking and porn stars was not something I would have thought they were capable of. So, the can got kicked down the road. The end of the left wing MSM is still in the cards however, if Trump/GOP keeps winning they will run out of gas. If the GOP wins the House it will be fascinating to see how they could survive. I will watch intently.

But to elaborate, the GOP owns the government, but the left owns the media state still and big chunks of the deep state. If GOP keeps winning then obviously both of those will dissipate in a loop that benefits me. But we see with recent developments the left will try to use what power they have left in the deep state and media state to implement their final solution. I think they will fail.

But overall I am pretty much right.

1) a pom getting arreseted is the same as millions getting dragged off to gas chambers. ok. reference points established - but 0
2) umm. 0.
3) definately on the backfoot, definately lacking in potential next option - definately going to come back sooner or later, ill give you 1/2
4) only leftists care about the popular vote, the real game is the electable seats, 1/2 i spose
5) 0

as for You don't seem bothered by it ive been pretty consistent on all that since day one - im not going to monomaniac repeat the same crap over and over and over forever.

I do believe the mainstream media is against anything i care about - i also believe its aimed squarely at urban middle class and their sensibilities, especially those of the smothering mothers.

they are allowed to control what they want on their media - their is no conspiracy here - they number in the millions and have advertising dollars chasing them.

so far so good they have not attacked my media and until that starts happening im not sure what to say.

hence my earlier confusion on what are you asking for .. government takeover of the urban progressive media ?

[Mr. Perfect]

1) a pom getting arreseted is the same as millions getting dragged off to gas chambers. ok. reference points established - but 0

Ermm no, gas chambers didn't start overnight, they started by dragging political opposition off the street on trumped up charges. If you can get away with it once you can get away with it twice. And they are getting away with their preliminary efforts.

Conservatives are getting doxed, censored and deleted off the internet and prosecuted on a daily basis while nobody on the left or people like you say a single word about it. If you don't draw the line here where do you draw the line. Tell me where you draw the line. Keep in mind I am fighting to protect people like yourself, but I see you put more energy into rebutting me than people who will destroy your life without a second thought the moment you say the wrong thing at the wrong time. Why are you doing that.

People talk about false equivalence until it isn't false anymore. For example they say flirting isn't adultery, sure your wife has been texting the physical trainer, but they haven't banged yet, so what's the big deal. Well find YOUR wife pouring out her feelings about how alone she feels to another man online while he compliments her on her looks and then let me know what the difference is. They call it emotional cheating. Marriages break up over pron, not a single body was touched.

And there is no shortage of examples. In the other thread I have a load of citation showing in particular Aussie leftists content to let white South Africans get murdered while they bring in potential Isis fighters from Syria. They've already explicitly stated amenability toward the solution.

So full points to me. Lots of explaining required by you and others. For example you could let us know precisely when Jews in Germany should have risen up against Hitler.

2) umm. 0.

I suppose whether this is a simulation or not will come into play.

3) definately on the backfoot, definately lacking in potential next option - definately going to come back sooner or later, ill give you 1/2

Naw, if you follow history we switch parties after a disaster. If things are going well you can hold on to power in perpetuity. The structural problem Democrats face is that Reagan laid the template for permanent victory, and Trump found it. Bush had it for a few years and blundered it away. A party losing as badly as the Democrats will die as the losses kill their fundraising and their fundraising causes more losses.

4) only leftists care about the popular vote, the real game is the electable seats, 1/2 i spose

I would give 2 of my limbs for control of the media. Full point

5) 0

Still coming. If conservatives can discern between their liberators and their captors and vote accordingly, we have them on the ropes.

as for You don't seem bothered by it ive been pretty consistent on all that since day one - im not going to monomaniac repeat the same crap over and over and over forever.

Well tell me then exactly when the Jews should have started to push back against Hitler. Please provide some detailed explanation of your thoughts.

I do believe the mainstream media is against anything i care about - i also believe its aimed squarely at urban middle class and their sensibilities, especially those of the smothering mothers.

they are allowed to control what they want on their media - their is no conspiracy here - they number in the millions and have advertising dollars chasing them.

so far so good they have not attacked my media and until that starts happening im not sure what to say.

hence my earlier confusion on what are you asking for .. government takeover of the urban progressive media ?

Well we'll start with why you are more energized in confronting me, someone who wants to keep you free, instead of being aggressive against people who want to delete your existence.

Then we will ask why you think it's worth your time to confront me, someone who is trying to keep your free along with myself and others, but see the coming wave of Stalinism and throw up your hands and roll over. Why do people like you challenge your liberators and submit to your captors?

[Simple Minded]

If you can find the time, go back and actually read your pre-2016 POTUS election prediction posts.

I covered almost all of it in the post. You should read it.

Other than the "... the election is over. Hillary won....." part of your prognostications, repeated dozens of times, you actually did pretty good.

IIRC, you were in such a state of shock on election night, that you posted you were shaking and vomiting.

You're a piece of work Mr. P! Me and Jesus both love you! You bring spice to the gift of life.

[Mr. Perfect]

yeah, I think I've explained this a few dozen times. I made a popular vote prediction, which was 100% correct. I did not make an electoral college prediction because nobody can do that.

So yes, I was shaking and vomiting because i knew Trump would lose by 2-3%, and I was dead on right, right on the money.

The founders just put that electoral college thing in there, thankfully, and it saved us.

As someone said at that time time, even when I'm wrong I somehow end up being right.

Let me know if you have any other questions.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

In the Re: Predictions on the US post November 8 2016 thread,

one solid prediction that didn't really come true by Simple Minded:

Hillary loses.
Trump parlays Trigangulation into our first orange skinned POTUS.
Mr. P flies all OTNOT posters to his bunker for a week long celebration party that would make Caligula blush.
Obama thinks about pardoning Hillary but realizes it will only taint his legacy.
Hill & Bill retaliate by releasing dirt on Obama.
MSM coverage rapidly switches to Alien Invasion and Asteroid Strike fear mongering.
Ocean levels continue to rise, but AGW rate decreases from 0.042 degrees per year to 0.03657 degrees per year.

Unless the rest of y'all got a tour of the bunker and I was left in the dark about it.

And replace alien invasion and asteroid strike fear mongering with Ruskies.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

From the Oracle of Perfect:

The day after election I am liquidating 1/4 of my holdings and converting them to precious metals. This has nothing to do with valuations but surviving the apocalypse. I've run drills and can convert all my liquid holdings to metals and delivered in pallets within 48 hours. I am planning on cashing...

But I did find the prediction - November 1st, 2016:

Oh man I wish. My assessment is Hillary by a few points. The nevertrumpers are not budging, at all, and too many early ballots have come in. I really have never liked early ballots.

The greatest criminal ever to occupy the White House is upon us.

And it was pretty spot on- just a bit light on the numeracy.

[Mr. Perfect]

There were a few more.

[Parodite]

If indeed the Democrats will lose more in November, or at least no blue tsunami occurring and in 2020 Trump re-elected, the reason will be rather simple it seems to me if the following trends hold:

1. a thriving economy
2. progress/detente with North Korea, possibly even a deal about de-nuclearization plus a track towards re-unification with south-korea
3. new stability in Syria with toxic Iran removed from the equation there
4. some more wall/fence building w Mexico and considerable steps in immigration reform
5. progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
6. russia gate will be officially dead with Trump emerging clean

Things that matter most to most Americans all moving in the right direction. But there is a psychological factor too why Trumps fan-base is solid and more likely to grow: more Americans see the democratic/progressive left regress further and further into cognitive dissonance, the trump derangement syndrome becoming systemically incurable with hate and resentment going through the roof as a consequence. Expect serious mental health issues and more violence. Who can vote with confidence for a democratic party that lost its mind?

Trump will be recognized as "the little lier" who can be loose with facts at times, but these dwarf in the perception of the public with the lies, manipulations, vitriol emanating from the democrats and their supporting media, and the white-wash of the Clinton lies and probably crimes. (A fun thought: if Trump is indeed a perpetual liar, narcissist, why was he believed immediately by the left-wing press when he claimed to "just gab'm (women) by the pussy"? I think that wast just another typical lil' Trump lie/exaggeration )

Trump the lil liar versus the lying bigly and obstructionist Democrats who still can't accept nor understand why they keep loosing from Trump the Terrible. Hard-core anti-Trumpers can then only conclude that more and more Americans have gone insane. Not they themselves!

The regressed left-wing Church of Virtue and Truth will loose quite some more members, but those that refuse to leave and keep clinging to Trump's Guilt and their own Innocence and Virtue will become more and more authoritarian, needing all the help from corporate America and deep state to block out and sensor all their enemies. That still might happen. Simply because that is where most power and money exist and corruption tends to have only one way forward: more corruption and cover-ups.

This biblical insight might well have a resurgence in the US me thinks:

"Why do you look at the speck that is in your brother's eye, but do not notice the log that is in your own eye?"
Matthew 7:3

If the Democrats keep failing Matthew they will keep loosing bigly.

[Mr. Perfect]

You are getting better at this than me parodite. Impressive.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

There were a few more.

I'm sure there were, I just didn't find'em by quick search.

======================

President Trump is positioning to take down NAFTA now.

The full force of the Democrats and Republicans will be to save NAFTA at any costs. If he'd have done it a year ago, a big chunk of wall street would've tumbled. It's still gonna hit the market but it seems that by going at it a bit crab-like, it should be baked into the cake, numbers-wise by now.

But, he is not out of the woods yet and the reaction is going to be a severe test of majorities.

[Mr. Perfect]

The country is with Trump on trade. Doubt he would end Nafta before the election.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

The country is with Trump on trade. Doubt he would end Nafta before the election.

But the Congress is not. In fact, seems the only issue they care about.

WASHINGTON DC – Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that he will not bring up a freestanding bill to push back on President Trump’s trade agenda, but that GOP senators might be able to add it as an amendment to other legislation.

Support among Republicans has grown for legislation backed by Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) that would give Congress power to authorize or reject any new tariffs imposed because of national security concerns.

GOP senators says McConnell doesn’t want to risk a confrontation with the president but also wants to be responsive to the concerns of colleagues who think Trump’s trade agenda has run amuck.

McConnell Open to Amendment Pushing Back on Trump Tariffs. If only thy were half as serious about anything else, imagine what they could accomplish!

[Doc]

Great campaign ad

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[Simple Minded]

It's never too late or too early for more, er, uh, um..... strategy!

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ru ... esidential

Might have been better for the repubs in the long run, if Hilary had won in 2018. At least then they would have had a focal point.

No Hilary, no raison d'être.

[Doc]

It's never too late or too early for more, er, uh, um..... strategy!

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ru ... esidential

Might have been better for the repubs in the long run, if Hilary had won in 2018. At least then they would have had a focal point.

No Hilary, no raison d'être.

Just wait to see what they say to get the nomination. I have a feeling that "Hope" "Change" isn't going to cut it.

[Simple Minded]

It's never too late or too early for more, er, uh, um..... strategy!

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ru ... esidential

Might have been better for the repubs in the long run, if Hilary had won in 2018. At least then they would have had a focal point.

No Hilary, no raison d'être.

Just wait to see what they say to get the nomination. I have a feeling that "Hope" "Change" isn't going to cut it.

It may have started already. Mad Dog 2020?

[Nonc Hilaire]

It's never too late or too early for more, er, uh, um..... strategy!

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ru ... esidential

Might have been better for the repubs in the long run, if Hilary had won in 2018. At least then they would have had a focal point.

No Hilary, no raison d'être.

Just wait to see what they say to get the nomination. I have a feeling that "Hope" "Change" isn't going to cut it.

It may have started already. Mad Dog 2020?

[Doc]

It's never too late or too early for more, er, uh, um..... strategy!

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ru ... esidential

Might have been better for the repubs in the long run, if Hilary had won in 2018. At least then they would have had a focal point.

No Hilary, no raison d'être.

Just wait to see what they say to get the nomination. I have a feeling that "Hope" "Change" isn't going to cut it.

It may have started already. Mad Dog 2020?

That would certainly generate a lot of interesting contortions if he ran as a Democrat. But he would have the leftist snowflakes straightened out in no time. Maybe even make Marines out of them.

https://freebeacon.com/national-securit ... og-mattis/

1. "I don’t lose any sleep at night over the potential for failure. I cannot even spell the word."

(San Diego Union Tribune)
James Mattis

AP
2. "The first time you blow someone away is not an insignificant event. That said, there are some assholes in the world that just need to be shot."

(Business Insider)
3. "I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you genuflect with me, I’ll kill you all."

(San Diego Union Tribune)
4. "Find the enemy that wants to end this experiment (in American democracy) and kill every one of them until they’re so sick of the killing that they leave us and our freedoms intact."

(San Diego Union Tribune)
Flickr

Flickr
5. "Marines don't know how to spell the word defeat."

(Business Insider)
6. "Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet."

(San Diego Union Tribune)
7. "The most important six inches on the battlefield is between your ears."

(San Diego Union Tribune)
8. "You are part of the world's most feared and trusted force. Engage your brain before you engage your weapon."

(Mattis’ Letter To 1st Marine Division)
Mattis in 2006 / Flickr

Gen. Mattis in 2006 / Flickr
9. "There are hunters and there are victims. By your discipline, cunning, obedience and alertness, you will decide if you are a hunter or a victim."

(Business Insider)
10. "No war is over until the enemy says it's over. We may think it over, we may declare it over, but in fact, the enemy gets a vote."

(Defense News)
11. "There is nothing better than getting shot at and missed. It’s really great."

(San Diego Union Tribune)
12. "You cannot allow any of your people to avoid the brutal facts. If they start living in a dream world, it’s going to be bad."

(San Diego Union Tribune)
Gen. Mattis and Gen. Dempsey / Flickr

Gen. Mattis and Gen. Dempsey / Flickr
13. "You go into Afghanistan, you got guys who slap women around for five years because they didn't wear a veil. You know, guys like that ain't got no manhood left anyway. So it's a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them. Actually it's quite fun to fight them, you know. It's a hell of a hoot. It's fun to shoot some people. I'll be right up there with you. I like brawling."

(CNN)
14. "I’m going to plead with you, do not cross us. Because if you do, the survivors will write about what we do here for 10,000 years."

(San Diego Union Tribune)
15. "Demonstrate to the world there is ‘No Better Friend, No Worse Enemy’ than a U.S. Marine."

(Mattis’ Letter To 1st Marine Division)
16. "Fight with a happy heart and strong spirit"

(Mattis’ Letter To 1st Marine Division)

[Mr. Perfect]

It's never too late or too early for more, er, uh, um..... strategy!

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ru ... esidential

Might have been better for the repubs in the long run, if Hilary had won in 2018. At least then they would have had a focal point.

No Hilary, no raison d'être.

Mmm, win by losing. You are full of Rino ideas.

[Simple Minded]

It's never too late or too early for more, er, uh, um..... strategy!

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ru ... esidential

Might have been better for the repubs in the long run, if Hilary had won in 2018. At least then they would have had a focal point.

No Hilary, no raison d'être.

Mmm, win by losing. You are full of Rino ideas.

I'm just observing their perennial Modus Operandi, instead of lecturing me, your time might be better spent telling the RINO's that.

You could be like a Pope who took responsibility for his flock and culled the pedophiles out of the institution of the Catholic Church.

You might be our next pure Republican POTUS.

[Doc]

https://jacobin.com/2022/07/democratic- ... te-suburbs

The Democratic Base Keeps Getting Richer and Whiter

BY
BRANKO MARCETIC
A startling poll shows how rapidly the Democrats are trading away their traditional multiracial, working-class base for white, highly educated voters. And the shift is causing a change to the party’s political priorities as a result.

The Democratic Party is not in a good place: Its political agenda is stalled, its president is historically unpopular, it’s suffered a string of policy defeats at the hands of the Supreme Court, and it looks like it’s headed for an unfavorable election result this November. If that weren’t enough, it also seems to be losing its traditional voter base.

There was some alarming news for the party in the latest New York Times Upshot/Siena College national poll earlier this week, with white, college-educated voters making up a larger share of Democratic support than non-white voters for the first time in the survey’s six-year history. This contrasts with the pattern seen over most of the last few decades, in which the GOP tended to preserve its traditional advantage with white college graduates, while Democrats relied on the overwhelming support of non-white voters.

This somewhat startling result is the fruit of a long-term process of political realignment that’s been going on since at least as early as Barack Obama’s presidency, but accelerated with Donald Trump’s emergence onto the political scene. On the one hand, Trump slightly scrambled typical voting trends in 2020, winning over a surprisingly high share (though still small in absolute terms) of groups like Latinos, Asians, Muslims, and even some Native Americans, and the GOP has since then been concertedly working to bring more of those voters into the fold.

At the same time, the Democratic Party has pursued and doubled down on an electoral strategy based on poaching affluent, former Republican-supporting voters while taking non-white support for granted, the assumption being that with the GOP mired in xenophobia and at times overt bigotry, these voters would have nowhere else to go.

“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin,” Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) infamously said in 2016.

That year’s election saw the Democratic nominee overperform in wealthy, educated neighborhoods, and the Republican nominee overperform in poorer, less educated (and mostly white) neighborhoods. The Democrats’ 2018 midterm rout was similarly based on winning over affluent suburban areas and whiter, more educated voters. By 2020, Joe Biden was comfortably out-fundraising Trump among zip codes with higher education levels and a $100,000 median household income, and the Democrats continued to shed support among all voters of color, whether college-educated or not.

Maybe more startling is what the Times found was the effect of this shifting class composition. Asked what the most important issues facing the country were, today’s Democratic voters overwhelmingly named guns, abortion, and threats to democracy, while relatively few pointed to the economy or inflation — only 17 percent of white, college-educated Biden voters did so, which according to the paper was the smallest proportion of any racial or educational group.

By contrast, the survey showed it was GOP-backing voters who overwhelmingly viewed economic issues as the biggest national problem. According to the Times, the less affluent and non-white voters who see this as the top priority prefer Republican control of Congress by a margin of 62 to 35 percent, even as a majority of voters who see the economy as the top issue also believe abortion should be legal. Much of this may be to do with the gains the party has made among Latino voters, which are ongoing.

One clear takeaway here is that as the GOP escalates its war on social progress and intensifies its discrimination against LGBTQ people, its current strength isn’t because of, but despite its regressive social agenda, one that’s wildly out of step with the mainstream. Working-class voters, particularly those many would describe as the most marginalized, may not agree with the Republicans’ retrograde social vision, but some section of this cohort is clearly willing to look past this for the sake of their economic security.

The fact that many of them now view the GOP — whose last major legislative accomplishment was a massive tax giveaway to the superrich and who have spent decades trying to unravel America’s frail social safety net — as their best bet on this front is a testament to Democrats’ failure to deliver on their agenda, though it’s likely also related to memories of a stronger economy under Trump, coupled with measures like the stimulus checks and eviction ban.

Another, more ominous takeaway is what all this portends for the prospects of the Democratic Party ever becoming a vehicle for social democratic politics. The Times wrongly labels guns and abortion “cultural issues” — the latter in particular is a workers’ rights issue, among other things — but the paper is correct to stress the historic significance of the downgrading of economic issues on the current Democratic coalition’s list of priorities. It’s a major shift. That the party of Franklin Roosevelt has managed to remain unpreoccupied with an economy where everything is becoming astronomically more expensive, workers’ wages are stagnant, and child poverty has spiked 41 percent suggests that the realignment in process has only solidified, making it ever more inhospitable to a left-wing policy program.

Trends can be reversed, of course. Though they were unsuccessful, Bernie Sanders’s two campaigns showed the potential for building a mutiracial working-class coalition around a left-wing economic program, and last year’s Center for Working-Class Politics study found that working-class voters of all kinds — including those from the very regions and with the same backgrounds that Democrats have struggled with for years — are swayed by the very kind of bread-and-butter-focused, universalist messaging that Sanders repopularized.

The trouble is the Democratic Party leadership is implacably hostile both to candidates like this, and to the economic program they represent. These latest survey results shows this approach is a slow-rolling boulder to electoral oblivion. But catastrophic defeat has lately never led the party to do some rethinking.