On the Nature of Things | Forum

My rec on PM looks golden

Same with RYN, NGG, and WPC.

[perhaps a good time to take gains on these . . . haven't decided yet]

The rest, a bit slow over the last 18 months, but still positive (in my view) long-term due to strong dividends and financial position.

Now I'm looking at firms in the insurance industry (like ACE, AFL, AIG, CB, TRV and WSH).

I still believe that the industries that are almost embarrassingly good at making money are our addictions: tobacco, alcohol and credit cards.

I'm pretty lost as far as what to do with my money right now. Stocks are clearly inflated by loose monetary policy, along with most other asset classes as far as I can tell. Government bonds have nowhere to go but down since interest rates can't get much lower. Commercial real estate is a slow motion disaster. Residential real estate is still being supported by artificially low interest rates and banks keeping inventory on their books. I have some connections to ranchers and farmers around the country, and have been considering buying some agricultural land to lease for pasture or cultivation... not much of a return there, but at least it seems safe.

I have enough precious metals for insurance against serious inflation, some dividend-paying oil and gas trusts, a few things like that, but all in all I'm about 80% cash for lack of good ideas, though holding cash in this environment doesn't seem like the best idea either.

Put it in drugs and guns.

YMix wrote:Put it in drugs and guns.

I have lots of guns and plenty of access to drugs. It's time to diversify.

Damn.

Drugs and guns are an important part of my overall investing strategy, which is essentially cribbed from Nassim Taleb's. That is, simply protect the bulk of your capital, while devoting a small portion of your portfolio to bets on the possibility of a major dislocation (which can be either positive or negative).

Tbh, people should really learn about shorting over the next decade.

Mr. Perfect wrote:.

Tbh, people should really learn about shorting over the next decade.

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True

next decade, things shrinking , name of the game will be "wealth destruction"

only people making money (out of other people's money) will be shorters

they should make an index, ETF, for shorting America



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