On the Nature of Things | Forum

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Typhoon wrote:

noddy wrote:all these mech suits and robots look cool in demos but it will be easy to know when they are anything more than play toys and thats keeping an eye on actuator and battery technology.

the actuators required to make these impressive looking things are very loud and require lots of battery, leaving them noisy and with very short lifespans, this is why google dropped their research, they realized it was "decades away"

obviously we might end up with batteries that dont suck but we dont have them now and when we do get them, all sorts of crazy stuff will be possible.

Excellent points.

Also I don't agree with the flight analogy [Doc's post above].
Flight is based on the underlying physics of aerodynamics. It is mostly an engineering problem.
Improvement has been continuous since the first flights.

There is no analogous underlying theory of machine learning. Recently finished reading a book on so-called deep learning.
It is remarkable just how ad hoc are the designs and methods.

Unlike flight, machine learning has a long boom and bust history of over promising and under delivering.

hmmmm

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Don't forget Daedalus and Icarus

Typhoon wrote:Don't forget Daedalus and Icarus

LOL Yeah I thought of them as well but figured I already had made my point

so your point was that an idea remains an unworkable dangerous hubris for thousands of years before it finally gets turned into reality long after the civilization that had it has faded out ?

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The Real Challenge for U.S. Industry
Automation is hardly the main worry in U.S. manufacturing employment.

The reality is that it’s much easier for pundits and politicians to worry about futuristic issues like the tradeoff between robots and humans rather than do something about the grimy, real problems of deteriorating manufacturing output and competitiveness. No tough policy response is required, nor is there any reason to look deeply into why manufacturing collapsed so suddenly after 2000, or at what role international trade with China might have played in that collapse. The fantasy that the U.S. is filled with automated factories staffed by human-displacing robots is more comforting than the reality of rusting, derelict, and abandoned factories throughout the country.

Interesting ..
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that article misses the point, it might be correct for 'manufacturing' but its ignoring the reason to have manufacturing, which is employment, otherwise noone cares.

the reason the factories are abandoned and rusting is they are the old expensive human operated ones and it wasnt worth investing in them, even if they did return, they wouldnt employ very many and especially not from the demographics that desperately need the work - the regular joes without much social skill or higher level skills.

locally i have a brick factory and its production has scaled up tremendously yet last century it employed nearly 10,000 and a couple of decades ago it employed 1000 and now it employs a couple of hundred so the impact it has on the local economy has dropped to the point of irrelevance, except for a bit of tax income, maybe.

noddy wrote:.

that article misses the point, it might be correct for 'manufacturing' but its ignoring the reason to have manufacturing, which is employment, otherwise noone cares.

the reason the factories are abandoned and rusting is they are the old expensive human operated ones and it wasnt worth investing in them, even if they did return, they wouldnt employ very many and especially not from the demographics that desperately need the work - the regular joes without much social skill or higher level skills.

locally i have a brick factory and its production has scaled up tremendously yet last century it employed nearly 10,000 and a couple of decades ago it employed 1000 and now it employs a couple of hundred so the impact it has on the local economy has dropped to the point of irrelevance, except for a bit of tax income, maybe.

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noddy, why is German "manufacturing" conquering the world, when at the same time American "manufacturing" rusting ?

German manufacturing is not electronics or semi, but heavy machinery, chemical plant and and and .. and Germans use of Robots much more concentrated than US .. said B4, German industry machinery is on average 3-4 yrs old, America's still WW2 machinery

There is many important reason for that

for another post.

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sigh, crooks and jews, same as every other time you explain the mysteries of the universe.

the germans got saved by attaching southern european bankrupt economies to theirs and getting a devalued dollar that makes them competitive despite themselves, they also got saved by china having a boom and paying top dollar for the premium perception.

china has hit the wall and stopped wasting money and now surprise surprise, german debt is at record levels.

NONE OF THIS nonsense helped japan get of permanent recession even tho their factories are as modern as the germans or china employ more than a tiny fraction , why ?? WE DONT NEED MORE WIDGETS.

the world is smothered in cheap lavender already, its a race to the bottom in industrial production, we need a way of keeping the multi millions of under employed people from popping, thats the real issue that bubbling everywhere.

noddy wrote:.

sigh, crooks and jews, same as every other time you explain the mysteries of the universe.

the germans got saved by attaching southern european bankrupt economies to theirs and getting a devalued dollar that makes them competitive despite themselves, they also got saved by china having a boom and paying top dollar for the premium perception.

china has hit the wall and stopped wasting money and now surprise surprise, german debt is at record levels.

NONE OF THIS nonsense helped japan get of permanent recession even tho their factories are as modern as the germans or china employ more than a tiny fraction , why ?? WE DONT NEED MORE WIDGETS.

the world is smothered in cheap lavender already, its a race to the bottom in industrial production, we need a way of keeping the multi millions of under employed people from popping, thats the real issue that bubbling everywhere.

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All capital good markets are open to all nations .. has anybody sanctioned American industry ?

Why Chinese or Poles or Russians or Indonesians buy German capital goods ?

Dollar is cheap, on down trajectory last 50 yrs.

Re "crooks of Wall Street", the business mentality in America, here a good sample.

Milwaukee-based mining equipment manufacturer, AAA American company, best of the best, called Harnischfeger .. biggest (P&H) cranes, biggest maker of paper making machinery in the world, one of the biggest mining machinery maker in the world.

WS fooled the majority owner Hunt Brothers (by convincing much higher growth can be achieved), new CEO was hired, borrowed to the eyeball, next slowdown, BANG

Those things don't happen in Germany .. German industry "same" family owned for "Generations" .. German law says labour must be heavily represented in company "board", they must approve things.

American companies are built by entrepreneurs (America's strength), they cash in (IPO or sold to private equity), Wall Street takes over (funds now own the share) .. suddenly, nobody (a few funds own, with employee on bonus deciding things) owns the company, funds are only interested for quarterly report and company is squeezed for last drop and spit out (Apple's Scully).

That is how WS makes money .. they bought the congressman and Senators (financing the election campaign of those agreeing with them) .. making all this legal, and proud of it.

American industry and economy has a fundamental structural problem.

And now, Trump has stacked those crooks in his cabinet.

Icing on the cake coming now .. Gorsuch, supreme court nominee wants to eliminate all safeguards .. hold to your shirt, "noddy", hold to your shirt.

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my shirt is just fine, im a wage slave, ive got nothing to lose.

the Ticks & Leeches (*) that feed off me might get a bit of a shock but i cant say ill lose any sleep.


(*) bonus pretentious metal band reference.

FT | When it comes to investing, human stupidity beats AI

Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.

Typhoon wrote:MIT Tech Rev | The "dark secret" at the heart of deep learning AI

I think I know the secret I think you can find it right here. And note I am not sure this simulation is actually real. I don't have enough information on it to decide.

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But real or not does not matter. Just that it gave me a very powerful idea. See if you can see it. When I get some time I will try to explain it. But first I want to play with the parameters of the game of life some to see to what degree I am correct.

Good luck to him.

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http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/29/googles- ... osses.html

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The real worry is how to prepare for the mass elimination of jobs that is surely coming, he said.

"I certainly see that there will be disruptions in employment … we've already seen a lot of change, that's going to continue," Norvig said in an interview, before a lecture on machine learning at the Stevens Institute of Technology.

By now there's wide consensus on this matter, the question is really just scale — whether the impact of machine learning is minimal or whether it consumes half of all jobs over the next decade.

Although this process is well underway with manufacturing jobs, more and more it's going to creep up the value chain, altering or eliminating any number of jobs in law, finance and even media.

"The pace may be so fast that it [will] cause disruptions," Norvig said. "So we need to find ways to mitigate that."

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Nature | Kasparov on Deep Thinking

Deep Thinking: Where Machine Intelligence Ends and Human Creativity Begins
Garry Kasparov PublicAffairs: 2017.

Google A.I. Clinches Series Against Top Go Player

AlphaGo, an artificial intelligence program developed by Google's DeepMind lab, did not even need a third game to display its dominance over the world's best (human) Go player. On Thursday the A.I. defeated Ke Jie in Wuzhen, China, repeating its victory of two days ago and clinching a best-of-three series against the 19-year-old wunderkind.

Ke has one more chance to redeem himself, on Saturday, though if the first two matches are any indication, is chances don't look good.

America Afford A Universal Basic Income? Simple: "Tax The Robots"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-3 ... tax-robots

Nonc Hilaire wrote:America Afford A Universal Basic Income? Simple: "Tax The Robots"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-3 ... tax-robots

Seems like a much better idea would be to give everyone voting share ownership of automation companies. Though no matter how it is done it is going to be messy in a lot of ways.

http://www.controleng.com/single-articl ... ef577.html

Readying robots and the workforce for Industrie 4.0
Cover Story: Industrie 4.0 is not a distant vision for the factory of the future. Already networks of robots are connecting to the cloud and contributing massive amounts of insightful data to simplify asset management and maintenance, maximize equipment and process efficiency, and improve product quality.
Tanya M. Anandan, RIA
08/02/2017

People making life easier for machines:

http://www.controldesign.com/articles/2 ... not-exist/

A job that may or may not exist

I read an article about Mercedes and BMW hiring workers to assist robots. Seriously. They are removing the larger brute-force robots and replacing them with smaller, more agile robots that have proven to be safe while working beside a human.

They are hiring people who do not need any specific skills per se to help the robots decide what to do. Mercedes’ comment was that their new models, which have advanced with the use of technology, have too many options and the matrix of options is too complex for software and engineering to allow the robot to do them. It required a thought-process shift, and this shift required an out-of-the-box decision to hire more people to help the machines.

Reason | Two Chatbots Disappear From China's Biggest App Store After Committing Thought Crimes

Chinese chatbots dream of moving to America.

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WiKi - Transhumanism


. . an international and intellectual movement that aims to transform the human condition by developing and making widely available sophisticated technologies to greatly enhance human intellect and physiology.

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The Growing World of Libertarian Transhumanism
Freedom from the government will allow radical science to go on undisturbed.



Interesting article .. AI should be core


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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2 ... robot-tax/

South Korea introduces world's first 'robot tax'

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.. loooove it


New AI can guess whether you're gay or straight from a photograph

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