The Next Four Years

[planctom]

so, what's going to happen?
I predict:

-Bibi is going nuts and will bomb Iran, unless Obama pulls a Nixon and signs a deal witn Teran
-No more Cairo speeches
-Drones will keep slaughtering civilians in Af.
-QE 100
- Depression will hit Spengler
-AIPAC will lost its influence
- For us here in South America, nothing is going to Change.

[monster_gardener]

so, what's going to happen?
I predict:

-Bibi is going nuts and will bomb Iran, unless Obama pulls a Nixon and signs a deal witn Teran
-No more Cairo speeches
-Drones will keep slaughtering civilians in Af.
-QE 100
- Depression will hit Spengler
-AIPAC will lost its influence
- For us here in South America, nothing is going to Change.

Thank You Very Much for your Post Plancton.....

You may be right but your first prediction may negate the last........

Bibi is going nuts and will bomb Iran,

Iran may already have nukes..... Or will get them after Israel bombs it unless they do the job well enough to make the Iranians too busy surviving to think much about revenge...

IMVHO Doesn't have to be a Grade A nuke..... maybe just some Nork garbage that still ruins Israel as a going concern fit only to be an Orion Nuclear Rocket Launching Station

Round 2: Israel gets nuked.........

Round 3 Israel nukes back with Salted nukes from Subs ...... If we are "lucky" Gold or Tantalum salted....... Something with a shorter half-life than Cobalt......

For us here in South America, nothing is going to Change.

ABC (Argentina, Brazil, Chile) real estate gets VERY Valuable as being as close to Fallout Free as can be found..........

Depending how the winds blow you may see a lot of Japanese, Uz, Euro and other immigration...... If you will let Uz in.........

Maybe even our esteemed Typhoon* will blow in to enjoy Carnival & the Tangas on the the Beach

RWGRO9KH8Mc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWGRO9KH ... re=related


*No offense intended. Wishing You Well as the World Sinks.........

[planctom]

I'm sure that Colonel Typhoon is well versed in our beach culture!

[Torchwood]

- For us here in South America, nothing is going to Change.

Well, commodity prices are going to tank , which definitely has implications.

[Typhoon]

I'm sure that Colonel Typhoon is well versed in our beach culture!

From Cabo Frio to Ipanema to Ubatuba to Ilhabela

The ocean drive along the Costa Verde or Litoral Norte is spectacular.



Recife and Salvador are in my bucket list.

[Typhoon]

Sorry to stray off topic.

* Economy slowly recovers, but joblessness remains an issue

* The US Fed will continue with ZIRP

* Afghanistan will collapse, as in the current regime, if and when US troops withdraw

* US public debt will continue to grow despite rhetoric

* While Israel may do so, the US will not go to war against Iran

* PM Netanyahu will not be a happy little vegemite

* Spenglerman will have a breakdown

Next up, the so called US Fiscal Cliff. Will an agreement be reached?

[Juggernaut Nihilism]

Sorry to stray off topic.

* Economy slowly recovers, but joblessness remains an issue

* The US Fed will continue with ZIRP

* US public debt will continue to grow despite rhetoric

These three points indicate that you think the "recovery" will be only apparent.

[Endovelico]

I'm sure that Colonel Typhoon is well versed in our beach culture!

May we join the Federal Republic of Brazil, seeing that we already speak the language?... And we love those "mulatas"...
Pleeeeaaaase!...

[monster_gardener]

I'm sure that Colonel Typhoon is well versed in our beach culture!

May we join the Federal Republic of Brazil, seeing that we already speak the language?... And we love those "mulatas"...
Pleeeeaaaase!...

Thank you Very Much for your post, Endo.

IMVHO that sounds like it might be more of a winner than sticking with Eurostan and Frau Merkel who good as she is for Germans, does not seem to be good for the PortuGals
who are not Billy Joel........

zkfkJCyqCBc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkfkJCyqCBc

Might be best to talk to Planctom who has Boots on the grounds in Brazil......

He should Better able to say if this idea is Nutty

Which might be a very good thing......

[Demon of Undoing]

• The abject failure of Fed policy in the face of objective reality

•Widespread fracture between the states and the Federal law/ courts, oddly enough set up by recreational marijuana legislation ( yet again a failure by the right to seize an issue both appropriate to its ideology and likely to be effective, and yet again another one on which Romney was on the wrong side)

• War from Libya to Pakistan, starting in Egypt vs itself

• Greece as the mold for several other European states, possibly a few American ones.

[Ibrahim]

Sorry to stray off topic.

* Economy slowly recovers, but joblessness remains an issue

* The US Fed will continue with ZIRP

* Afghanistan will collapse, as in the current regime, if and when US troops withdraw

* US public debt will continue to grow despite rhetoric

* While Israel may do so, the US will not go to war against Iran

* PM Netanyahu will not be a happy little vegemite

* Spenglerman will have a breakdown

Next up, the so called US Fiscal Cliff. Will an agreement be reached?

This all sounds reasonable to me. I'd only add something about the US continuing to melt civilians with drones, boring everybody.

Its hard for me to think of a single thing on this list that would be different had Romney won. Maybe something re: healthcare for Americans, but he was pretty vague on that point.

[noddy]

grind grind grind with not much optimism or growth in sight for most of the world, default cant happen because its not in the interest of the players.

the status quo big boys will keep accepting minor defaults and deflating losses to remain in control and us little people all end up paying a metric buttload more tax for even less services - if this happens at a slow enough frog boiling pace then it can go on for decades.

aka, we are all japanese now.

the only thing would change that is escalating war or revolutions in the larger countries... cant really have an opinion on that because i cant tell whats real and whats wishful thinking

[Ibrahim]

aka, we are all japanese now.

If this is the case we need to ask the Japanese how they manage to do it without CONSTANT PANIC.

[Simple Minded]

aka, we are all japanese now.

If this is the case we need to ask the Japanese how they manage to do it without CONSTANT PANIC.

Isn't panic a reaction that one chooses? I agree the MSM sells panic, and that there are lots of buyers, but the decision to buy into or not is up to each of us.

Panic does seem to be exciting, and does build commarderie in the sense of "Life sucks! We're all screwed! But at least we all have each other!...." so I guess if those are one's mental states.....

Panic does seem to appeal to some personality types more than others.

How bout it Typhoon, does the japanese MSM sell panic less agressively the the western MSM? Or or the Japanese people more reluctant to buy into the MSM narrative than westerners?

[Hoosiernorm]

Constant Panic is really going out of style right now. It's just doesn't deliver the way it use to. It's kink of like the Beach Boys problem, the music is the same but the fans keep dying off so their sales just continue to fail. Media panic is really the same, it worked for awhile and then became really entertaining for all the wrong reasons. Now it's becoming the Musak version of itself and people just mumble what they can remember about the panic but with only the harmony. They mis remember the lyrics and just have the wrongly worded verse as a memory. Oh well won't miss it a bit.

[Typhoon]

Constant Panic is really going out of style right now. It's just doesn't deliver the way it use to. It's kink of like the Beach Boys problem, the music is the same but the fans keep dying off so their sales just continue to fail. Media panic is really the same, it worked for awhile and then became really entertaining for all the wrong reasons. Now it's becoming the Musak version of itself and people just mumble what they can remember about the panic but with only the harmony. They mis remember the lyrics and just have the wrongly worded verse as a memory. Oh well won't miss it a bit.

On can only hope.

[Demon of Undoing]

Constant Panic is really going out of style right now. It's just doesn't deliver the way it use to. It's kink of like the Beach Boys problem, the music is the same but the fans keep dying off so their sales just continue to fail. Media panic is really the same, it worked for awhile and then became really entertaining for all the wrong reasons. Now it's becoming the Musak version of itself and people just mumble what they can remember about the panic but with only the harmony. They mis remember the lyrics and just have the wrongly worded verse as a memory. Oh well won't miss it a bit.

On can only hope.

No, what happens is the same old dynamic of a population raised on sitcoms/teletragedies. They expect everything to resolve itself inside of thirty minutes; when it doesn't, it loses its entertainment value. They turn the chanel. Meanwhile, the gears continue to grind.

Oh, there's an Apocalypse, all right. What can't continue, won't. The money being dumped is going to go somewhere. The loss of competition is going to render us uncompetitive ( duh) on a significant scale, like it already has in many sectors . The unsustainable spending will have to be discontinued with nasty results.

This isn't going to go away. The manners in which it is dealt with will change. All will likely be unsucessful. But there is cause for optimism. Even a blind pig finds an acorn now and again.

[Mr. Perfect]

But at least no magic underpants (except Senate Majority leader Reid, of course)!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-1 ... ed-release

While there had been speculation that the BLS may delay the release of its October nonfarm payroll number until after the election, it turned out there was no reason to worry. Perhaps this is because the number, while at stall speed, was not quite as horrible as some had expected (even if the change in average hourly earnings did tumble to new all time lows) and so boosted Obama's reelection chances. There was, however, another closely tracked number which perhaps is far more indicative of the economic "growth" in the past 4 years, which certainly had a delayed release. The number of course is that showing how many Americans are on foodstamps, and usually is released at the end of the month, or the first day or two of the next month. This time the USDA delayed its release nine days past the semi-official deadline, far past the election, and until Friday night to report August foodstamp data. One glance at the number reveals why: at 47.1 million, this was not only a new all time record, but the monthly increase of 420,947 from July was the biggest monthly increase in one year.

One can see why a reported surge in foodstamps ahead of the elections is something the USDA, and the administration may not have been too keen on disclosing.

[Mr. Perfect]

Thank goodness no magic underpants (except Harry Reid of course. We like them in that case and wish we had a pair)!

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... -line-sand

So both Boehner and Obama have done their post election photo ops. They have spelled out their positions on the looming fiscal cliff. No surprises at all. The Republicans are saying “No” to any increases in tax rates while Obama has said he will outright veto any bill that is presented to him that does not raise taxes on rich folks.



I was surprised by the reaction in the press to the positions set forth by these two. The headlines make it seem like B&O are ready to work together, and achieve the necessary compromises to avoid falling off a cliff. I think the press has it wrong. We’re headed into a bitter fight; in part, because the President has drawn a very dangerous line in the sand.

The President has said that the recent election has shown that the majority of American’s want the rich to pay more in taxes. What is the President insisting on? Is he pushing for something that would make a difference? I don’t think so. More importantly, the Congressional Budget Office does not agree with the President’s position.

The CBO put out a report on this topic last week. It spelled out the consequences of an increase in the tax rate for those making over $250,000 (versus reversing all of the Bush tax cuts). It does not add up to much.

The tax that Obama wants to increase will result in a lousy $42Bn in 2013 and $38Bn in 2014 according to the CBO. That’s peanuts to a government that spends $3.6T a year. The tax increase that Obama is insisting on comes to three days of spending.



No tax increase comes without a cost. The CBO evaluated the implications of raising the taxes on those making $250k and up. The consequences to both GDP and jobs:

Raising high end taxes will reduce GDP growth by .1% and will result in 200,000 less workers finding jobs. It will do these bad things by the 4th Q of 2013. Some context for these numbers:



The .1% drop in GDP translates to $16Bn less growth in 2013. On average, the government takes in about 20% of GDP, so the drop in GDP relating to the tax increase will translate into a shortfall in revenue of $3.2Bn.



The tax increase mandated by the President will translate into 200,000 less jobs for 2013. If the people who did not find work as a result were forced to stay on unemployment it would cost the government $4.6Bn.



So Obama’s “must have” tax increase will generate $42Bn in revenue, but it will cost ~$8Bn. The Obama's plan is to decrease the deficit by about $34Bn in 2012, and by less than that in future years. These numbers are beyond chump change. It comes to 0.9% of total spending and just 3.0% of the deficit. It does not move the needle at all.



My conclusion is that we are in for a fight. Talk of compromise and “coming together for the good of the country” is just noise. The President is insisting on a tax increase that will not achieve anything of substance. Obama has drawn a very visible line in the sand over this issue. I can’t imagine how the House Republicans will go along with it. The President’s opening position on how to work through the fiscal cliff is about politics, not economic substance.

Get ready for a failure in these negotiations. We are going to fall off of that cliff in 53 days!

This part I don't know. Reid has those magic pants.

[Typhoon]

aka, we are all japanese now.

If this is the case we need to ask the Japanese how they manage to do it without CONSTANT PANIC.

Isn't panic a reaction that one chooses? I agree the MSM sells panic, and that there are lots of buyers, but the decision to buy into or not is up to each of us.

Panic does seem to be exciting, and does build commarderie in the sense of "Life sucks! We're all screwed! But at least we all have each other!...." so I guess if those are one's mental states.....

Panic does seem to appeal to some personality types more than others.

How bout it Typhoon, does the japanese MSM sell panic less agressively the the western MSM? Or or the Japanese people more reluctant to buy into the MSM narrative than westerners?

Perhaps しょうがない shouganai - it can't be helped [so there's no point in worrying about it - just get with one's own responsibilities] best sums up the Japanese view.

Here's the front page of the English translation of the Nikkei Shimbum [equivalent to the WSJ and the FT]

so posters can judge for themselves.

The only panic item is from the CNBC news feed: Nov.9 05:30 Great Crash by 2015, Says Dent

On the other hand, there is much concern in the press about the massive ever growing debt and other problems.

My impression, and please correct me if I'm mistaken, that selling panic is most prevalent in the US compared to other western media.
Perhaps it's the popularity of apocalyptic beliefs, both religious and secular, in the culture that makes for a receptive audience?

No one in Japan is talking about installing machine gun nests in their home as a precautionary measure against imminent societal collapse.
[Ref. Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics thread]. Not that it would be legal to begin with.

However, I don't think anyone in Spain, which has very serious economic problems, such as official 25% unemployment, is doing so either.
Same for Greece, with 58% youth unemployment, and presumably Portugal.

[Juggernaut Nihilism]

It bears mentioning, America, with our Balkanized and resentful cultural landscape, errrr I mean vibrant and diverse cultural landscape, is far less prepared for 58% unemployment or high inflation than most European countries. There are whole swaths of territory here in Los Angeles I wouldn't drive through without my car-mounted flame throwers if the welfare checks stopped showing up one day.

[noddy]

yep, quaint national sterotypes "stiff upper lip wot wot" are only applicable to homogenous places and while its crude to draw parrallels between various different cultures, the japanese equivilent would only be real if there were large suburbs full of north koreans,eastern seaboard chinese and various pacific island groups affected by ww2 living there and underemployed and barely assimilated and dependant on government services.

im sure the japanese xenophobes and worry merchants would have more to feed on then.

you only have to look to the european countries which have recently changed to a multiculture even approaching american levels like england or france to see rioting and the rise of the extreme nationalist locals... many of the others are close behind.

dont get me wrong, im a multiculture product and not against it but i dont kid myself for a second that alot of our communities give a sh*t about any other group that isnt their own mob.

their are so many dissonant combinations of people who used to be at war or are currently at war and only put up with each other due to prosperity that allows indifference.

their are also so many different states and counties to deal with - i know in australia that some of these will do just fine and all the cultures do get along and in others of them its barely contained hatred and it will probably go quite pear shaped, america seems to be just like this but more so.

luckily the one im in currently is one of the easy going places with all sorts getting along fine, plenty of trash in it but the worst would be increased breakins and late night street violence which im too old to be part of - i wouldnt say the same for the underemployed outter burbs of nsw or vic, some of them go pop in good times and nothing would surprise me about what happens in bad times.

having said all that crap - i dont get the sense of barely domesticated labourer types in japan either, it could well be my ignorance, because even without the multiculture the anglosphere and european west have always carried alot of ermm, underclass of drunken labourer types that get ugly when the economics does

[noddy]

an example of the wildass gang violence in the burbs now that the stresses are piling up.


http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western ... 6514219093

N 80-year-old retired priest allegedly bit an ear off another elderly clergyman during a violent brawl over a parking bay in their block of units.

The punch-up broke out on Friday afternoon in a Dianella complex, which houses three retired Catholic priests.

Father Thomas Henry Byrne appeared in court yesterday charged with grievous bodily harm over the incident involving his neighbour, 81-year-old Father Thomas Joseph Cameron Smith.

According to police, after the brawl Father Byrne told Father Smith to pick up an item up on the ground.

It was not until Father Smith returned to his unit that he realised the item he had picked up and put in his pocket was his right ear.

[Nonc Hilaire]

I don't need magic underpants, but some stainproof ones would be nice. Every time a politician speaks these days mine grow a brown stripe.

[Endovelico]

you only have to look to the european countries which have recently changed to a multiculture even approaching american levels like england or france to see rioting and the rise of the extreme nationalist locals... many of the others are close behind.

Racism and related discrimination is mainly a biological response to the genetic need to project one's own genes into the future. It's not a cultural phenomenon. That's why racially homogeneous peoples tend to be more prone to racist manifestations than culturally and racially mixed ones. And that's why black people tend to be targets of racism, as their different genetic makeup is more clearly visible. For the same reason blacks tend to marry other blacks, and whites tend to marry whites. It's all in our genes and that's the way we respond to the imperative of preferring our own genes - or closely related ones - to more alien ones. Our illusion that we are a rational species makes us forget how much of our behaviour is strictly instinctive.