Iberian Nations

[Endovelico]

I'm impressed...

Portugal’s elder statesman calls for 'Argentine-style' default

Mario Soares, who steered the country to democracy after the Salazar dictatorship, said all political forces should unite to “bring down the government” and repudiate the austerity policies of the EU-IMF Troika.
“Portugal will never be able to pay its debts, however much it impoverishes itself. If you can’t pay, the only solution is not to pay. When Argentina was in crisis it didn’t pay. Did anything happen? No, nothing happened," he told Antena 1.
(...)
“In their eagerness to do the bidding of Senhora Merkel, they have sold everything and ruined this country. In two years this government has destroyed Portugal,” he said.

I don't know which country will be the first to choose that policy.

But to hear the man who I understand is the most respected elder statesman of the country call for that solution is... really impressive.

Mario Soares is saying what we all know: what can't be paid will not be paid. And for a country not to pay its debts is not different from bankrupt firms not paying theirs. The saying caveat emptor applies here: creditors who lend money to entities which may not be creditworthy do it at their own risk.

Having said this, I believe it would be possible for Portugal to honour most of its debt, but it would need a number of measures being taken as soon as possible.

I'm starting by considering that Portuguese workers and many entrepeneurs are up to being competitive, provided it is possible to invest enough money in the modernization of firms, by acquiring state of the art technology and equipment. If that is so, the problem is finding the necessary money and to apply it where it can do most good. Secondly Portugal should enforce immediately a policy of limiting imports to the value of exports and of financing budget deficits exclusively at home, in order to stop any increase in foreign debt. This would require some flexible interpretation of EU rules.

As to finding money it would be fairly easy. By declaring a moratorium of one year on the payment of interest on foreign debt, Portugal would liberate 10 billion euros which could be invested at zero interest - and might even not be required to be paid back at all. Such a sum, properly invested, would boost exports, limit imports and reduce unemployment. At very little sacrifice to creditors. A sacrifice much smaller than not being paid at all.

The trouble is that both Portuguese rulers and European politicians have shown a complete lack of imagination and of scruples. Stupidity and arrogance seem to be the rule, and if that continues to be so, then the end result will be default by Portugal on its debt.

[Parodite]

Everybody's money is everywhere, everybody's debt is everywhere. Best would be for all to default voluntarily and burst the 800 trillion $ bubble on which the world economy floats that can sink us all anytime. Suicide is better than disappearing in the Bermuda Triangle by methane gas bubbling up to the surface..

MSmAXp_BHcQ

As per the economy:

KbnM1QpuwWI

[Doc]

I'm impressed...

Portugal’s elder statesman calls for 'Argentine-style' default

Mario Soares, who steered the country to democracy after the Salazar dictatorship, said all political forces should unite to “bring down the government” and repudiate the austerity policies of the EU-IMF Troika.
“Portugal will never be able to pay its debts, however much it impoverishes itself. If you can’t pay, the only solution is not to pay. When Argentina was in crisis it didn’t pay. Did anything happen? No, nothing happened," he told Antena 1.
(...)
“In their eagerness to do the bidding of Senhora Merkel, they have sold everything and ruined this country. In two years this government has destroyed Portugal,” he said.

I don't know which country will be the first to choose that policy.

But to hear the man who I understand is the most respected elder statesman of the country call for that solution is... really impressive.

Mario Soares is saying what we all know: what can't be paid will not be paid. And for a country not to pay its debts is not different from bankrupt firms not paying theirs. The saying caveat emptor applies here: creditors who lend money to entities which may not be creditworthy do it at their own risk..

The thing people have not come to gripes with is that investments are hard to find. IE Too much money to few investment opportunities that return at the desired rates. I bet there is a constant that gives the overall average return on investment that is true over the entire market. So perhaps too many finance people in the service sector as well. They don't actually produce any wealth they just shift it around.

SO yes Portugal could default and after a couple of years the investment bankers would return. Though that would mean leaving the Euro behind.

[Azrael]

I'm impressed...

Portugal’s elder statesman calls for 'Argentine-style' default

Mario Soares, who steered the country to democracy after the Salazar dictatorship, said all political forces should unite to “bring down the government” and repudiate the austerity policies of the EU-IMF Troika.
“Portugal will never be able to pay its debts, however much it impoverishes itself. If you can’t pay, the only solution is not to pay. When Argentina was in crisis it didn’t pay. Did anything happen? No, nothing happened," he told Antena 1.
(...)
“In their eagerness to do the bidding of Senhora Merkel, they have sold everything and ruined this country. In two years this government has destroyed Portugal,” he said.

I don't know which country will be the first to choose that policy.

But to hear the man who I understand is the most respected elder statesman of the country call for that solution is... really impressive.

Indeed. And I agree with him.

Whatever harm would come to Portugal from a default (and Argentina indicates not much), it would be trivial compared with the harm from continuing this mummers play.

[Endovelico]

The neo-liberal Partido Popular in Spain has been very successful in fighting the economic crisis...

Unemployed in Spain

[Taboo]

The neo-liberal Partido Popular in Spain has been very successful in fighting the economic crisis...

Unemployed in Spain

Impressive. Both Zapatero's Socialists and Rajoy's People's Party are squirming under the boot-heel of Teutonic oppression, and collaborating with the financial occupation forces. My Spanish friends tell me that unless you're someone's child or female and willing to screw the boss, there's no getting jobs for people 20-30.

When's the revolution? Will there be cake?

[Endovelico]

Both Zapatero's Socialists and Rajoy's People's Party are squirming under the boot-heel of Teutonic oppression, and collaborating with the financial occupation forces. My Spanish friends tell me that unless you're someone's child or female and willing to screw the boss, there's no getting jobs for people 20-30.

When's the revolution? Will there be cake?

Revolutions always take a lot longer to occur than one would think. But I have a feeling that both Greece and Spain may be coming close to the threshold for such revolution to happen. Is that threshold 33% of unemployed? Less? More? But one day, when nobody really expects it, some stupid thing will happen - a cop kills someone, your football team loses... - and then suddenly parliament is stormed, some barracks are assaulted and weapons stolen, and some of the better known politicians are hanged from the taller lamp posts in town... And once it starts... The interesting thing is the oligarchy never believes it can happen.

[YMix]

your football team loses...

About that...

And not only that Real and FC Barcelona lose, but they collapse under the weight of their massive debts.

[Parodite]

Germany.. the engine of Europe

[Endovelico]

The latest opinion poll in the Madrid region has given the following results:



Three remarkable things:

1. The conservative PP collapse.
2. The inability of the socialist PSOE to gain at the expenses of the conservative collapse.
3. The rise of the radical left IU, which comes very close to the socialists and has more support than ever before in the Madrid region.

It may take some time, but radical leftist parties in southern Europe will eventually rule in those countries, although they may need to form coalitions with the social-democrats/socialists.

UPyD is a centrist party with strong federalist views both in respect of Spain and Europe. They might feel more at ease with the socialists and radicals than with the conservative.

[Ibrahim]

In almost every European country today (i.e. not Germany or Norway) it makes no sense for the majority of the population to vote for anyone but leftist parties. The conservatives only offer austerity that will make your life worse if you are working class, and of course if you are unemployed. And unlike North America there aren't a bunch of "culture wars" issues to distract voters from this fact.

[Taboo]

In almost every European country today (i.e. not Germany or Norway) it makes no sense for the majority of the population to vote for anyone but leftist parties. The conservatives only offer austerity that will make your life worse if you are working class, and of course if you are unemployed. And unlike North America there aren't a bunch of "culture wars" issues to distract voters from this fact.

Must be why the Icelanders voted in rightist parties by a landslide 10 days ago. Pity. Europe lost its cutest prime minister, Sigurdardottir. I guess conservatives are not the only ones doing the right thing (restoring economic sanity) and getting punished for it.

Almost every European country.

[Azrael]

In the case of Iceland, they may be reverting to the mean. They've rarely had a left-wing or center-left government since independence. For a vast majority of the time, the center or the center-right has been in charge.

[noddy]

wasnt lceland the only one that did proper austerity and make sure the fatcats copped it as hard as the little guy, which is the proper right wing response unlike the rest which pretend to do that whilst doing the opposite.

[Typhoon]

Portugal thread merged with Iberian Nations thread:

Spain, Portugal, and Andorra

[Azrael]

wasnt lceland the only one that did proper austerity and make sure the fatcats copped it as hard as the little guy, which is the proper right wing response unlike the rest which pretend to do that whilst doing the opposite.

Social Democrats are the best right wingers.

Iceland also has its own currency, which has also helped.

[Ibrahim]

wasnt lceland the only one that did proper austerity and make sure the fatcats copped it as hard as the little guy, which is the proper right wing response unlike the rest which pretend to do that whilst doing the opposite.

Social Democrats are the best right wingers.

Iceland also has its own currency, which has also helped.

Smaller country with relatively little poverty as well. Easier ship to right.

That said, all the credit to them for reacting successfully.

[Alexis]

Spanish prelate fears 'mutual hatred' over euro crisis
The Catholic Primate of Spain has called for a profound shift in Europe's debt crisis policy to avert social collapse

"We have to change direction, otherwise this is going to bring down whole political systems," said Braulio Rodriguez, the Archbishop of Toledo.
(...)
Europe's Catholic bishops have been careful not to stray into the political debate or criticise EU economic strategy but the Archbishop said the current course is untenable.
"The Vatican has always been an enthusiast for Europe, but a Europe of solidarity where we help each other, not a Europe of coal and steel. Whether this is possible depends on Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel," he said.
(...)
Europe's Catholic bishops know first-hand from their Cor Unum charitable network just how desperate it has become. "We can try to mitigate the effects by giving basic help to people left totally unprotected, but we can't create jobs," said the Archbishop.
"We are seeing families who used to middle class needing help. This is totally new. As a matter of honour, they won't come to us until they have exhausted everything,"
(...)
German leaders may be more ready to heed criticism from the Vatican and their own clergy than from Club Med politicians.
(...)
The Archbishop said the debt crisis is a symptom of a deeper malaise. The roots lie in the "moral disarmament" of the last quarter century. A `get-rich-quick' culture of "stupid consumption" and "deranged indebtment" has corrupted public life. Children have been brought up to wallow in self-gratification.
"This is common to the whole of Western Europe. It goes back to the core issues of moral philosophy, of what we are as human beings. It is here that we must search for a way out of the impasse," he said.

So the Catholic Church and the Vatican are entering the fray... and puting political pressure

Given that the Church is generally very reluctant to speak on the purely political realm except when moral issues are at hand, given that the Vatican has been a consistent pro-EU support, for them to take such a step as open and strong criticism of a EU policy, they must be really worried about where all of this will lead.

And they're right to be, of course.

[Endovelico]

The trend continues: the conservative PP and the socialist (?) PSOE keep going down, and the radical left IU continues going up. Soon there will be a syphon effect from the PSOE to the IU: those who are really socialist will see that voting for the real socialists will be better than voting for the fake ones, and IU may hope to reach at least 25% of the vote. Things are getting interesting around here...

[Typhoon]

Bloomberg | Portugal Leads Rise in European Bond Risk as Coalition Crumbles

Portugal’s 10-year bond yield topped 8 percent for the first time this year after two ministers quit the coalition government, putting budget cuts at risk as the country works to meet the terms of its bailout program. Rating downgrades of European banks and unrest in Egypt also drove up credit risk.

“Portugal is almost certainly going to become a crisis,” Bill Blain, a strategist at Mint Partners Ltd in London, wrote in a note to clients today. “When politicians walk away from government, you know a new election is coming. That’s the point economic reform dies.”

The cost of insuring European corporate debt against default rose to the highest in a week, signaling deterioration in perceptions of credit quality.

What's going on?

[Endovelico]

Bloomberg | Portugal Leads Rise in European Bond Risk as Coalition Crumbles

Portugal’s 10-year bond yield topped 8 percent for the first time this year after two ministers quit the coalition government, putting budget cuts at risk as the country works to meet the terms of its bailout program. Rating downgrades of European banks and unrest in Egypt also drove up credit risk.

“Portugal is almost certainly going to become a crisis,” Bill Blain, a strategist at Mint Partners Ltd in London, wrote in a note to clients today. “When politicians walk away from government, you know a new election is coming. That’s the point economic reform dies.”

The cost of insuring European corporate debt against default rose to the highest in a week, signaling deterioration in perceptions of credit quality.

What's going on?

The Portuguese government was mostly made up of incompetent people led by an imbecile. It's now falling apart, we will probably have elections soon, and we risk electing a different set of idiots, led by another imbecile, with very much the same results. Unless voters decide to take risks, which I very much doubt. But the weather is fine, the food and the wine are as good as ever, and I still prefer risking getting hungry in Portugal than in Sweden...

[Ibrahim]

Bloomberg | Portugal Leads Rise in European Bond Risk as Coalition Crumbles

Portugal’s 10-year bond yield topped 8 percent for the first time this year after two ministers quit the coalition government, putting budget cuts at risk as the country works to meet the terms of its bailout program. Rating downgrades of European banks and unrest in Egypt also drove up credit risk.

“Portugal is almost certainly going to become a crisis,” Bill Blain, a strategist at Mint Partners Ltd in London, wrote in a note to clients today. “When politicians walk away from government, you know a new election is coming. That’s the point economic reform dies.”

The cost of insuring European corporate debt against default rose to the highest in a week, signaling deterioration in perceptions of credit quality.

What's going on?

The Portuguese government was mostly made up of incompetent people led by an imbecile. It's now falling apart, we will probably have elections soon, and we risk electing a different set of idiots, led by another imbecile, with very much the same results. Unless voters decide to take risks, which I very much doubt. But the weather is fine, the food and the wine are as good as ever, and I still prefer risking getting hungry in Portugal than in Sweden...

You sure the army shouldn't step in, take over, and clean your country up?

[Endovelico]

You sure the army shouldn't step in, take over, and clean your country up?

No need to. We have no religious nuts running the country...

[Ibrahim]

You sure the army shouldn't step in, take over, and clean your country up?

No need to. We have no religious nuts running the country...

Right, I forgot. You only want fascism for other people in other countries. Big surprise.


By the way, your wish to impose your own views on other people through military violence makes you a religious nut.

[Heracleum Persicum]

Bloomberg | Portugal Leads Rise in European Bond Risk as Coalition Crumbles

Portugal’s 10-year bond yield topped 8 percent for the first time this year after two ministers quit the coalition government, putting budget cuts at risk as the country works to meet the terms of its bailout program. Rating downgrades of European banks and unrest in Egypt also drove up credit risk.

“Portugal is almost certainly going to become a crisis,” Bill Blain, a strategist at Mint Partners Ltd in London, wrote in a note to clients today. “When politicians walk away from government, you know a new election is coming. That’s the point economic reform dies.”

The cost of insuring European corporate debt against default rose to the highest in a week, signaling deterioration in perceptions of credit quality.

What's going on?


.

Paradise (Persian word) for "Junk" bind buyers .. Portugal bonds as good as US T-Bills


best deal right now is :

Short US T-Bill
Long Portuguese long bonds

a money machine


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