Iberian Nations

noddy
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by noddy »

Endovelico wrote:
noddy wrote:deary me endo, still want that latin europe thing ?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/d ... nstrations
Fortunately the present Spanish government is not representative of latin people's view of the world. As we will find out at the next Spanish general elections...
didnt realise they had a coup in spain.

the real test (which probably wont make the media) is if the law is actually repealed by the incoming government or is just tactfully not used, this is the common pattern im getting quite jaded about.
ultracrepidarian
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Endovelico
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Re: Iberian Nations

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Spain to block Catalonia independence referendum

The Spanish government has vowed to block plans by parties in Catalonia to hold a referendum on independence on 9 November of next year.

"The poll will not be held," Justice Minister Alberto Ruiz-Gallardon told journalists moments after Catalonia's President, Artur Mas, announced a deal.

Mr Mas said agreement had been reached on the date and on two questions.

Voters would be asked if they wanted Catalonia to be a state and if they wanted it to be an independent state.

Mr Mas announced that an agreement had been reached in principle and had still to be approved formally by the parties internally.

Both Spain's ruling conservatives, the Popular Party of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, and the Socialist opposition have long made it clear that they oppose a referendum.

Under the current Spanish constitution, referendums can only be called by the national government in Madrid, not by the governments of Spain's 17 autonomous communities, of which Catalonia is one, the BBC's Tom Burridge reports from Madrid.

Mr Mas has said that "there is time to comply with laws and democratic processes".

But for that to happen, Spain's national parliament would need to approve a change in the Spanish constitution before next November, and that looks impossible given the opposition in Madrid, our correspondent adds.

Catalonia is one of Spain's most developed regions, with a population of 7.5 million.

It already has a wide degree of autonomy but the recent economic crisis has fuelled Catalan nationalism.

In September supporters of independence formed a human chain across the region.

Mr Mas has previously said that if Madrid blocks a referendum, he will turn regional elections - due in 2016 - into a vote on independence.

Opinion polls suggest Catalans are evenly split over independence.

The EU and Nato have warned that Catalonia would be excluded if it broke away from Spain.

Nationalists in another Spanish region, the Basque Country, won regional elections there last year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25353086
Democracy as Spanish conservative/fascists see it. Self-determination is reserved for underdeveloped peoples in underdeveloped continents because that's a way for industrialized countries to get hold of their natural resources. Developed peoples in developed continents are denied their right to self-determination because that may upset the oligarchs hold on the world... Well, I believe Catalans will get their freedom anyway. I only hope they will know what to do with it and do not sell out immediately to the oligarchs...
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Endovelico
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Re: Iberian Nations

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Spain ‘won’t have enough tanks’: Catalonia to vote on independence, defy Madrid
December 13, 2013 09:35

The Catalan regional parliament has set November next year for a referendum on the Spanish province’s independence. The government in Madrid blandly said the vote won’t happen, but activists wonder how it might be stopped.

Catalonia’s four pro-independence parties, which hold a majority in the regional parliament, announced Thursday that the rich industrial Spanish province will hold a referendum on whether to gain greater autonomy or even total independence from the country’s central government.

The vote’s preliminary date is November 9, Catalan regional government head Artur Mas said. The people will be asked two questions: "Do you want Catalonia to be a state?" and "Do you want that state to be independent?"

The former question was added for those Catalans who seek to change Spain into a federation, with Catalonia forming part of it. According to a Metroscopia poll in newspaper El Pais last month, 46 percent of Catalans favor separatism versus 42 percent who wish to remain within Spain. The support for greater autonomy, however, is very strong.

Just minutes after the announcement Spanish Justice Minister Alberto Ruiz-Gallardon rejected the idea, saying it would be unconstitutional.

"The vote will not be held," he said.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy spoke out later in the day, saying his government will not allow the Catalan referendum to happen.

"As prime minister I have sworn to uphold the constitution and the law and, because of this, I guarantee that this referendum will not happen," he stressed. "Any discussion or debate on this is out of the question."

But in Catalonia pro-independence moods are not withered by Madrid’s rebuke. They say the central government would have little options, if it does want to stop the referendum.

"They will have to show how they are going to prevent a vote from happening,” Elisenda Paluzie, professor of economics at the University of Barcelona, told RT. “What are they going to do? Will they send the police to the polling stations? It's up to them to show what kind of democracy they support."

Catalonia, a land with strong cultural roots and its own language, has had strong pro-independence sentiment for decades and shares a painful history with the rest of Spain. It was oppressed during the rule of military dictator Francisco Franco (1939-75), who stripped it of autonomous powers and issued a ban on Catalan language to fight separatist tendencies.

The situation now is different however, and Catalans don’t believe that Madrid would use force to block their independence aspirations.

"If Spanish tanks rumbled into Barcelona, like they did in 1939, there wouldn't be enough tanks to go around. There wouldn't be enough soldiers to go around. Spain, being a modern country, has drastically reduced its armed forces," Miquel Strubell, member of a pro-independence grassroots organization, the Catalan National Assembly, said to RT.

In modern Spain, Catalonia renewed autonomy and currently governs itself in areas like health and education. It has a regional parliament and maintains its own police force. But the calls for independence from Madrid has gained stronger support in the last few years, as Catalans complained that it is being drained of tax money, which is spent in other Spanish regions.

The situation is aggravated by the economic crisis, which forces the Rajoy government to adopt painful austerity policies. But financial considerations are not the prime reason why Catalans seek independence, says Strubell.

“I think most of my colleagues would agree that this isn't about money. It's about a much more basic issue of running our own things," he assured "It's all been on the cards for years. It all started before 2003, which is well before the economic crisis."

The referendum in Catalonia will be held less than a month after a similar vote in Scotland, which will hold it on September 18. Joan Maria Pique, a top aide and spokesman for Catalan President Mas, criticized the Spanish government, saying that London agreed to the Scottish vote on self-determination, while Madrid is reluctant to do the same for Catalonia.

"We expect to open negotiations with Madrid. The Spanish state can't be blind about it," he said.

http://rt.com/news/catalonia-independen ... -date-188/
Spain ‘won’t have enough tanks’, indeed...
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Alexis
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Re: Iberian Nations

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Endovelico wrote:Spain ‘won’t have enough tanks’, indeed...
Of course Spain wouldn't have enough tanks.

Now, this trend towards ever-smaller nations, ever-smaller States, does raise issues. Any isolated incident of a region wanting to become a nation can be explained, and understood. But here we're seeing an increasing number of them: Catalonia, Scotland, the Flemish part of Belgium, the Northern part of Italy ("Padania")...

What are the causes of such an increase in separatism? Probably the most major one is the desire by people in wealthiest regions to pay less taxes towards regions of their country which they perceive as retarded. This is definitly the major drive in Padania and Flanders case, it plays at least a large role in the Catalonia case.

Basically, it's the kind of populist semi-xenophobic "these laggard lazy crooks are stealing your hard-earned money" speech that is served by a part of the German right towards Germans - and which you are not too fond of, if I correctly remember... -, only it is directed against citizens of the same country instead against a different country.

I don't think this is a healthy trend.

A short sighted view could be that France will benefit from it if Flanders separates, because Wallonia and Brussels would soon become rattachistes and raise the tricouleur over Brussels... but this would be short-sighted indeed, because in the end nobody would benefit if countries began to explode in pieces because the most affluent fall for populist speeches.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.

Europe moving towards American like one nation .. this sausage making, doesn't look good but will taste good

in a few generations, there will be "State of Germany" same as "State of California" and no "German State"

there's no ifs & buts, already happening

.
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Alexis
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by Alexis »

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

Europe moving towards American like one nation .. this sausage making, doesn't look good but will taste good

in a few generations, there will be "State of Germany" same as "State of California" and no "German State"

there's no ifs & buts, already happening

.
I think you will be surprised by European politics of the next decade :)
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Alexis wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

Europe moving towards American like one nation .. this sausage making, doesn't look good but will taste good

in a few generations, there will be "State of Germany" same as "State of California" and no "German State"

there's no ifs & buts, already happening

.
I think you will be surprised by European politics of the next decade :)

.

yes ,

one of us will be surprised .. but .. I (am sure you too) hope sincerely, you will be the one 2B surprised

look, Alexis, this nothing to do with Portuguese suddenly fallin in love with Germans , not at all

But, once Portuguese feel the pain of Chinese and Indonesians and Mexicans eating their lunch they might think better side with Germans now and that is probably going to happen, first things will go terribly wrong and than bounce in the right direction

.
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Alexis
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Re: Iberian Nations

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Heracleum Persicum wrote:one of us will be surprised .. but .. I (am sure you too) hope sincerely, you will be the one 2B surprised
On this I can tell you that you are mistaken: I hope sincerely that the EU will either disappear entirely or better be reorganized along national lines (essentially, what it was around the 1970s)

A big melting of nations within federal structure, which would eventually transform into a Yugoslavia writ large, is a nightmare.

It's just that this is no longer a nightmare to keep one awake at night. ;)
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Endovelico
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by Endovelico »

Alexis wrote:
Heracleum Persicum wrote:one of us will be surprised .. but .. I (am sure you too) hope sincerely, you will be the one 2B surprised
On this I can tell you that you are mistaken: I hope sincerely that the EU will either disappear entirely or better be reorganized along national lines (essentially, what it was around the 1970s)

A big melting of nations within federal structure, which would eventually transform into a Yugoslavia writ large, is a nightmare.

It's just that this is no longer a nightmare to keep one awake at night. ;)
Why would anyone wish Europe to be a simple collection of Monaco's, Liechtenstein's, San Marino's, Andorra's or Luxemburg's? We can keep our national identities in a confederate Europe. Will we ever come to realize that?... Sometimes I wonder whether we are as smart as we think we are...
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by Simple Minded »

Endovelico wrote:
Why would anyone wish Europe to be a simple collection of Monaco's, Liechtenstein's, San Marino's, Andorra's or Luxemburg's? We can keep our national identities in a confederate Europe. Will we ever come to realize that?... Sometimes I wonder whether we are as smart as we think we are...
Amen Endovelico!!

I look at the US and think the same.

The desire of the central planners to impose DC or NYC or San Francisco culture on all of the US will prove to be as successful as imposing EU culture on all of Europe.

What is imagined as possible in the euphoric best of times (bull markets), usually can not be implemented, even in the best of times.
Even less in normal times or bear markets.

As Typhoon noted under the philosophy thread ".... blissfully ignorant and sheltered......"
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Alexis
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Re: Iberian Nations

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Endovelico wrote:Why would anyone wish Europe to be a simple collection of Monaco's, Liechtenstein's, San Marino's, Andorra's or Luxemburg's? We can keep our national identities in a confederate Europe. Will we ever come to realize that?... Sometimes I wonder whether we are as smart as we think we are...
Precisely: revived dreams to cut nations into pieces is not a healthy trend, no matter whether this is about Scotland, Catalonia, Flanders, Padania or others.

Confederate Europe might have been a possibility, might even have worked. But history rarely provides for second service, and after collapse of the present EU, I doubt a second attempt will be made anytime soon.

As for me, I define myself both as a French and as a human being. Second being more important than the first.

I have no use for any intermediate level, be it a "European" superstructure or an Imperial military organization (such as NATO)
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by Endovelico »

Alexis wrote:
Endovelico wrote:Why would anyone wish Europe to be a simple collection of Monaco's, Liechtenstein's, San Marino's, Andorra's or Luxemburg's? We can keep our national identities in a confederate Europe. Will we ever come to realize that?... Sometimes I wonder whether we are as smart as we think we are...
Precisely: revived dreams to cut nations into pieces is not a healthy trend, no matter whether this is about Scotland, Catalonia, Flanders, Padania or others.

Confederate Europe might have been a possibility, might even have worked. But history rarely provides for second service, and after collapse of the present EU, I doubt a second attempt will be made anytime soon.

As for me, I define myself both as a French and as a human being. Second being more important than the first.

I have no use for any intermediate level, be it a "European" superstructure or an Imperial military organization (such as NATO)

Don't kid yourself. France on its own is totally irrelevant and soon it will not even be viable. An invincible Asterix in a small village in Bretagne is not reality, it's just a comics character...
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Alexis
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Re: Iberian Nations

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Endovelico wrote:Don't kid yourself. France on its own is totally irrelevant and soon it will not even be viable. An invincible Asterix in a small village in Bretagne is not reality, it's just a comics character...
This is where we differ, Endo :)

You are believing the imperialist illusion. Everybody is entitled to his opinion of course, but well... it remains an illusion ;)

- First, principles:

The imperialist argument has existed, has been believed again and again, multiple times since History's dawn. One basis of that argument is "you are too small, you can't take your own decisions, you need to be protected". And yet, empires and imperial projects come... and go. They are the foam on the waves of History.

While all empires claim to be holy and long-lived, they are not equally brutal nor short-lived. There are of course large differences between them. But all eventually collapse.

- Then, the particular case of our times:

Present empires, that is the American empire and its NATO appendix on the one hand, the secondary and subordinate empire that is the European Union on the other hand, all are experiencing crises which might well prove terminal. Well, in the case of the EU at least, the "might" is very close to "will" (and I really would not bet too much money on the American one)

As for nations being irrelevant or unviable...

- South Korea is charting its own economic way between two very powerful countries, the two most major Asian powers, without needing to become subservient to any of them. In the 1990s, everybody knew that the Japanese lead in consumer electronics was unassailable, but nobody had warned South Koreans: not knowing it was impossible, they did it. It is notable that population of South Korea is lesser than Italy's or France's...

- Israel not only survives, but thrives, without any need for having her laws nor currency nor trade strategy directed by an imperial superstructure, and all while having to devote many efforts and much resource to military and security in a very difficult regional environment. It is notable that population of Israel is lesser than Portugal's or Greece's...

- Iceland decided to solve the economic crisis themselves, in their own way, refusing IMF "help" and EU "help" which they correctly read as attempts to take control of their country to protect powerful private foreign interests. After having contemplated candidacy, they have discontinued talks with EU: they know now that they are better on their own. It is notable that Iceland's population is 320,000. Less than Luxembourg or Malta...

etc. etc....

Not only is it obvious that France does not need any imperial superstructure like EU, NATO and such to thrive, but much smaller countries are just as viable as independent nations, even with populations numbered only in millions, when not less than a million!
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Re: Iberian Nations

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Alexis wrote:
Endovelico wrote:Don't kid yourself. France on its own is totally irrelevant and soon it will not even be viable. An invincible Asterix in a small village in Bretagne is not reality, it's just a comics character...
This is where we differ, Endo :)

You are believing the imperialist illusion. Everybody is entitled to his opinion of course, but well... it remains an illusion ;)

- First, principles:

The imperialist argument has existed, has been believed again and again, multiple times since History's dawn. One basis of that argument is "you are too small, you can't take your own decisions, you need to be protected". And yet, empires and imperial projects come... and go. They are the foam on the waves of History.

While all empires claim to be holy and long-lived, they are not equally brutal nor short-lived. There are of course large differences between them. But all eventually collapse.

- Then, the particular case of our times:

Present empires, that is the American empire and its NATO appendix on the one hand, the secondary and subordinate empire that is the European Union on the other hand, all are experiencing crises which might well prove terminal. Well, in the case of the EU at least, the "might" is very close to "will" (and I really would not bet too much money on the American one)

As for nations being irrelevant or unviable...

- South Korea is charting its own economic way between two very powerful countries, the two most major Asian powers, without needing to become subservient to any of them. In the 1990s, everybody knew that the Japanese lead in consumer electronics was unassailable, but nobody had warned South Koreans: not knowing it was impossible, they did it. It is notable that population of South Korea is lesser than Italy's or France's...

- Israel not only survives, but thrives, without any need for having her laws nor currency nor trade strategy directed by an imperial superstructure, and all while having to devote many efforts and much resource to military and security in a very difficult regional environment. It is notable that population of Israel is lesser than Portugal's or Greece's...

- Iceland decided to solve the economic crisis themselves, in their own way, refusing IMF "help" and EU "help" which they correctly read as attempts to take control of their country to protect powerful private foreign interests. After having contemplated candidacy, they have discontinued talks with EU: they know now that they are better on their own. It is notable that Iceland's population is 320,000. Less than Luxembourg or Malta...

etc. etc....

Not only is it obvious that France does not need any imperial superstructure like EU, NATO and such to thrive, but much smaller countries are just as viable as independent nations, even with populations numbered only in millions, when not less than a million!
Europe should not try and be an empire. It should be a confederation with a common currency, common economy, common defense and foreign relations, and some means of transfer of money from one place to another in Europe to compensate for short term unbalances. At the same time it should adopt a policy of trade balances for all individual regions/countries of Europe (through a limitation of imports to the value of exports), which would make the need for inter-regional transfers a very sporadic one. Beyond this, each country would be free to do as it pleased preserving desirable differences and national identities. Nobody would be dominated by anybody else. What's wrong with this?...
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by noddy »

some means of transfer of money from one place to another in Europe to compensate for short term unbalances
heh, lots of wishy washy stuff and then one killer reason everyone wants to split from everyone else, including the catalonians from spain.

how short term has the greek vs german economic difference been, how many hundreds of years ?
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Re: Iberian Nations

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noddy wrote:
some means of transfer of money from one place to another in Europe to compensate for short term unbalances
heh, lots of wishy washy stuff and then one killer reason everyone wants to split from everyone else, including the catalonians from spain.

how short term has the greek vs german economic difference been, how many hundreds of years ?
I suppose that doesn't happen between, for instance, New South Wales and Queensland... But I suppose It's fine between Aussies but not between Europeans...
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by noddy »

Endovelico wrote:
noddy wrote:
some means of transfer of money from one place to another in Europe to compensate for short term unbalances
heh, lots of wishy washy stuff and then one killer reason everyone wants to split from everyone else, including the catalonians from spain.

how short term has the greek vs german economic difference been, how many hundreds of years ?
I suppose that doesn't happen between, for instance, New South Wales and Queensland... But I suppose It's fine between Aussies but not between Europeans...
it happens quite often in australia, the state i live in constantly has a sucession movement going on and i support it :)

tasmania is our greece, it lives and dies by the generosity of the federal government because its never earned enough to cover its costs since day one.

my state used to be a loss maker but for last couple of decades has been more than paying for itself however this change had nothing todo with any of the theories about efficiency or government interventions or investment or any of that crap, it happened because we are a resource rich state and then the chinese resource boom started, the only thing the government had to do was sit back and tax the crap out of it.

as a rule im completely opposite you and azari, i think the world is a better place with smaller groupings and more variability and dont wish for bigger groupings and more conformity.

ill nearly always support indepenance and decentralisation, independant culture is the best kind of culture, its healthier and more robust against the ups and downs of chaotic systems.

we should only form larger groupings when confronted with external threats, so the big EU (or AU for me) should be purely a millitary alliance for that purpose and the finances and legal systems should all be localised to suit the people and their lifestyles.
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Re: Iberian Nations

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noddy wrote:we should only form larger groupings when confronted with external threats, so the big EU (or AU for me) should be purely a millitary alliance for that purpose and the finances and legal systems should all be localised to suit the people and their lifestyles.
Why stop it at that level? Why not granting financial and legal independence all the way to village level? You may say that's not efficient, but then I might say that under present conditions efficiency - in respect of economy, finances, defense, foreign affairs and law - is the continental level. Which doesn't mean that each nation or culture could not decide what's best for them in anything which doesn't concern the whole. Trouble comes from deciding at the center the official size of condoms...
"The European Union started fighting against ridiculous rules and regulations, which European officials put into effect themselves. It turns out that there are special rules in Europe to regulate the length of cucumbers and condoms, as well as the curvature of bananas."

http://english.pravda.ru/society/storie ... pidlaws-0/
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Re: Iberian Nations

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Endovelico wrote:What's wrong with this?...
Well... quite a few things :)
Europe should not try and be an empire. It should be a confederation with a common currency, common economy, common defense and foreign relations
First, what you say here is contradictory. A "confederation with a common currency, common economy, common defense and foreign relations" either contains a single nation -in which case it is a nation with a confederate organization- or contains several of them - in which case it is an empire. If you are not ready to argue that people in Lisboa, Roma, Hamburg and Lyon do not constitute a single nation, well the confederation you are describing is an empire. Please refer to my above post on why I don't think an empire is a good idea.

Then, in the particular case of those nations presently members of the international organization dubbed "European union" and subject to its antidemocratic, bureaucratic and corrupt federal superstructure, here is the status of the attributes of the confederation you wish for:
- Common currency: exists, has provoked economic disasters (Spain, Italy...), will provoke more of them and more severe until it is eventually dismantled
- Common economy: not only is acceptance of inter-national solidarity low, it has been declining strongly as programs to shore up the value of assets of the wealthiest using taxes and assets of the common people were sold to Eurozone nations as "solidarity" towards the weakest
- Common defense: none exists, none will exist save that which consists of commonly bowing to the Superpower hoping for protection
- Foreign relations: no coordination except that which consists of commonly aligning on the Superpower guidance

Most crucially, not only are all attempts towards giving EU the attributes either empty shells (foreign relations) or unmitigated disasters (common currency), the acceptability of continuing those attempts in the face of utter failure is declining everywhere, save in Germany (now by far the most Europhile among the most populous European nations)

At some point, when one has tried repeatedly during decades to attain some results with results repeatedly at best disappointing often detrimental... one decides it is better to stop banging one's head against that wall again and again. And just do something else. Like: going towards a different direction.

More and more among European national populations are getting to such conclusions. Among EU's six most populous peoples, only the Germans still have a predominantly positive view of the EU... French people slightly overcome this year the British as most eurosceptic large EU nation... EU liberation parties are on the rise about everywhere, no matter the qualities and defects of those parties (that is, in spite of the very real defects of some of these parties)... etc, etc.

Timing in politics is essential. I don't know if such a European confederation would have been possible at some point in time -let's say, if different decisions had been taken beginning of the 1990s. I may have doubts, other people may argue it would have been possible, but anyway the point is moot: such confederation is politically impossible now, and after the further sufferings and disorder that will result of continuation of EU while it still lasts the political will to attempt such confederation will not exist again before a couple generations at a minimum, if ever.
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by Endovelico »

Alexis,

I agree that the EU project has been handled in a disastrous way. But that doesn't mean the idea was wrong to start with. While one might feel tempted to drop the whole thing, it might be wiser to try and put it back on track. No country in Europe is big enough to stand up to the US or China, or even India in a few years time. It's true we are different from each other in Europe, but not all that different, if we compare ourselves to Americans, Chinese or Indian. We share a common civilization and values, even if we live them in different ways. A confederation would require some coordination and some solidarity, but it wouldn't be oppressive to any one people or country. And it wouldn't be an empire, as you claim.

From a personal and national perspective I could live in a different environment than the EU. I could imagine a southern European union open to countries on the south shore of the Mediterranean. I could imagine an association of Brazil, Angola, Portugal, Cape Verde and S. Tome. I could think of an Iberian confederation with strong economic and political links to Latin America. But I would rather give Europe a real chance. And only if it proved to be impossible, would I go for one of the alternatives. I'm afraid we are giving up too easily, and that we are allowing old temptations to come again to the fore. Separate and autonomous France, or Germany or the UK, trying to further their goals at the cost of everybody else, would generate strong animosities in the rest of Europe. Not a good recipe for peace, I assure you...
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Re: Iberian Nations

Post by Endovelico »

Image
If the Catalan people were to vote today on independence, 55% would vote for and 22% against. That's good news. The sooner Catalonia and the Basque Country are independent, the sooner we will be able to start working towards an Iberian Confederacy and a Mediterranean Union.
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Catalonia

Post by Endovelico »

The more radical Catalan independentists want a Greater Catalonia as this:

Image

Included are Catalonia proper, Valencia, the Balearic Islands, Andorra, part of the French Roussillon, and the border region of Navarra with Catalonia, all regions where Catalan is spoken.
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Euskadi

Post by Endovelico »

After Catalonia, the Basque Country - Euskadi:

Image

Image
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Alexis
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Re: Catalonia

Post by Alexis »

Endovelico wrote:The more radical Catalan independentists want a Greater Catalonia as this:
They may want it. But they are not well armed enough for that ;)

During the 1870-1871 war against France, Germans at least were armed enough :)
Endovelico wrote:If the Catalan people were to vote today on independence, 55% would vote for and 22% against. That's good news. The sooner Catalonia and the Basque Country are independent, the sooner we will be able to start working towards an Iberian Confederacy and a Mediterranean Union.
Impressive numbers. So if this referendum indeed takes place, probability independence would be chosen is high.

I don't know what will happen. No matter what, let's hope that at least no violence will take place.

If Catalonia becomes independent, I strongly doubt the result will be a confederacy or an union. When Slovakia exited from Chekoslovakia, in spite of the process being as good as it could be hoped to be (I mean, absolutely zero violence), the result was neither a Chekia - Slovakia confederacy nor any Slavic union. It's difficult to break things, then pretend to mend them just afterwards.
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