On the Nature of Things | Forum

Economist | The curious case of the fall in crime

IN THE 1990s John DiIulio, a conservative American academic, argued that a new breed of “superpredators”, “kids that have absolutely no respect for human life and no sense of the future”, would terrorise Americans almost indefinitely. He was not alone. Experts were convinced that crime would keep rising. Law-abiding citizens would retreat to gated communities, patrolled by security guards. Politicians and police chiefs could do little except bluster and try to fiddle the statistics.

Mr DiIulio later recanted and it is clear that the pessimists were wrong. Even as he wrote, America’s crime wave was breaking. Its cities have become vastly safer, and the rest of the developed world has followed. From Japan to Estonia, property and people are now safer than at almost any time since the 1970s (see article). Confounding expectations, the recession has not interrupted the downward trend. Even as America furiously debates the shooting of Trayvon Martin (see article), new data show that the homicide rate for young Americans is at a 30-year low.

FBI | Crime in the USA

The FBI crime tables seem to support the assertion by The Economist.

the scariest thing about all human opinions being relative is that the more peaceful and sheltered we get the less tolerant we also become.

noddy wrote:the scariest thing about all human opinions being relative is that the more peaceful and sheltered we get the less tolerant we also become.

If people don't have real problems, then they dream up imaginary ones.

Perhaps a relic of our evolutionary history.

How else to understand helicopter-parenting and the over-regulated nanny state?

Typhoon wrote:

noddy wrote:the scariest thing about all human opinions being relative is that the more peaceful and sheltered we get the less tolerant we also become.

If people don't have real problems, then they dream up imaginary ones.

Perhaps a relic of our evolutionary history.

How else to understand helicopter-parenting and the over-regulated nanny state?

this was my point about "relative" .. good vs bad, violent vs peaceful are not absolute quantifiable opinions but relative qualitative stances.

a sheltered person with highly refined rules for normal is extremely lacking in scope for making such judgements yet at the same time its an absurdity to argue for more violence.

woot, the modern condition.

Typhoon wrote:

noddy wrote:the scariest thing about all human opinions being relative is that the more peaceful and sheltered we get the less tolerant we also become.

If people don't have real problems, then they dream up imaginary ones.

Perhaps a relic of our evolutionary history.

How else to understand helicopter-parenting and the over-regulated nanny state?

It's a rather reductionist view when we could consider the evidence right in front of us suggests that "helicopter-parenting" started with those people who were children during the rise of crime rates and social unrest, to go along with a rise in narcissistic behaviors and the dissolution of families to the rise of atomization.

And the nanny state is best explained by the mothering super-ego role that our medias have taken....these are fecund sociological trends long before my hairy genes become involved.

Never been to an Amish community or Mennonite community that had a confinement jail. That was always a civic matter and there wasn't enough of a need for one to ever devote a lot of time and money towards one. Seems to have worked out reasonably for both communities.

Hoosiernorm wrote:Never been to an Amish community or Mennonite community that had a confinement jail. That was always a civic matter and there wasn't enough of a need for one to ever devote a lot of time and money towards one. Seems to have worked out reasonably for both communities.

They have so much social control and regional economic control though. No point to a jail if you can socially and economically shut a person out of existence at will. I'm a harsh critic of the current prison economy, but I don't want to live in Lancaster County, PA either.

Why the reduction in US criminality?




Hmmm... Don't know... What a mystery... Oh the riddle... "The Curious Case" as they said...

Hey! Maybe this helped?



Similar data for incarceration only, expressed relative to population




The Economist did cite shortly this possible explanation: "Many conservatives will think this list omits the main reason crime has declined: the far harsher prison sentences introduced on both sides of the Atlantic over the past two decades". Many conservatives indeed, and many of other persuasions too: one needs only to be interested in actual data to get to that explanation!

That improvement is not really difficult to understand: when you place so many would-be offenders behind bars, some for very long terms, the crime rate is mechanically reduced because it's difficult to kill, rape, rob when one is in jail. Duh!



The seriousness of the underlying crime situation in a given country must be appreciated with 2 factors:
- the crime rate itself,
- the incarceration rate that is how many people it is necessary to hold in prison and how harsh the punishments have to be in order to get the crime rate down to what it is

Using these two factors, it is difficult to argue that the underlying crime situation in the US is good

- Extremely large rate of incarceration, on the order of 7 times larger than other developed countries(!)



- Yet, violent crime rate remains much higher than in other developed countries: e.g. three to five times as many as in most Western European countries

However, it's understandable that Americans prefer to have an upsize prison population rather than violent crime even much worse than what it is!

You are showing a correlation, which is not evidence of causation. I've seen people argue that everything from video games to atheism to more people going to university have reduced crime. Could be any combination of these "causes," or none.

Jail 'em or kill 'em - that's what our David says.....XD..........

Miss_Faucie_Fishtits wrote:Jail 'em or kill 'em - that's what our David says.....XD..........

This is the generic dog-whistle racism laundry list you'll hear from every pundit in the conservative echo chamber.

heh heh....... you said 'dog whistle'. you can have a blog over there.....;p........

Miss_Faucie_Fishtits wrote:heh heh....... you said 'dog whistle'. you can have a blog over there.....;p........

If I was going to blog I'd do it some place more respectable, like on the walls of a bathroom stall.

Ibrahim wrote:

Miss_Faucie_Fishtits wrote:heh heh....... you said 'dog whistle'. you can have a blog over there.....;p........

If I was going to blog I'd do it some place more respectable, like on the walls of a bathroom stall.

Thank you very MUCH for your post, Ibrahim

Imagining your low tech blog....

If you do it, please do report how it works out......

I imagine there will be big security problems even if you use a pay toilet......

Ibrahim wrote:

Hoosiernorm wrote:Never been to an Amish community or Mennonite community that had a confinement jail. That was always a civic matter and there wasn't enough of a need for one to ever devote a lot of time and money towards one. Seems to have worked out reasonably for both communities.

They have so much social control and regional economic control though. No point to a jail if you can socially and economically shut a person out of existence at will. I'm a harsh critic of the current prison economy, but I don't want to live in Lancaster County, PA either.

Too white for you?

Hoosiernorm wrote:

Ibrahim wrote:

Hoosiernorm wrote:Never been to an Amish community or Mennonite community that had a confinement jail. That was always a civic matter and there wasn't enough of a need for one to ever devote a lot of time and money towards one. Seems to have worked out reasonably for both communities.

They have so much social control and regional economic control though. No point to a jail if you can socially and economically shut a person out of existence at will. I'm a harsh critic of the current prison economy, but I don't want to live in Lancaster County, PA either.

Too white for you?

I was cracking on the Amish specifically, who are too white for everybody but other Amish.


Great place to get handcrafted wooden furniture though.

Ibrahim wrote:

Hoosiernorm wrote:

Ibrahim wrote:

Hoosiernorm wrote:Never been to an Amish community or Mennonite community that had a confinement jail. That was always a civic matter and there wasn't enough of a need for one to ever devote a lot of time and money towards one. Seems to have worked out reasonably for both communities.

They have so much social control and regional economic control though. No point to a jail if you can socially and economically shut a person out of existence at will. I'm a harsh critic of the current prison economy, but I don't want to live in Lancaster County, PA either.

Too white for you?

I was cracking on the Amish specifically, who are too white for everybody but other Amish.


Great place to get handcrafted wooden furniture though.

Thank You Very Much for your post, Ibrahim.....

I was cracking on the Amish specifically, who are too white for everybody but other Amish.

My goodness!

That sounds like a "racist" comment........

On the Hutter hand

Per these links the Anabaptist brethren of the Amish, the Hutterites, have a colony of ethnic Japanese Hutterites in Japan.....

And another Hutterite colony in Nigeria...........

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutterite#Colonies