On the Nature of Things | Forum

North Korea behind WannaCry ransomware attack, British intelligence claims

Sanction ! ! ! ..
North Korea economy grows at fastest pace in 17 years

North Korean GDP grew 3.9% in 2016,
according to the central bank of South Korea

Jeffrey Lewis of the California-based Middlebury Institute of International Studies said the launch showed Los Angeles was within range of a North Korean missile, with Chicago, New York and Washington, just out of reach.

"They may not have demonstrated the full range. The computer models suggest it can hit all of those targets," he said.

The U.S.-based Union of Concerned Scientists said its calculations showed the missile could have been capable of going as far into the United States as Denver and Chicago.

Michael Elleman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said the window for a diplomatic solution with North Korea "is closing rapidly."

"The key here is that North Korea has a second successful test in less than one month," he said. "If this trend holds, they could establish an acceptably reliable ICBM before year's end."

Los Angeles would be protected by the U.S. missile defense network, which includes four ground-based interceptors at Vandenberg Air Force base, 150 miles north of the city, and a second battery of 32 missiles in Alaska.

During a test on May 31 the missile defense system shot down an incoming ICBM missile aimed at the U.S. mainland and a Pentagon spokesman said the military had "confidence in our ability to defend against the limited threat."

Other authorities say the United States may not be able to seal itself off entirely from a North Korean ICBM attack.

Alexis wrote:Not entirely realistic... But well, it's funny

How does North Korea make money?
[...]
North Korea's industries export military products, machine building, electr\\ical power, chemicals, mining, metallurgy, textiles, food processing and tourism, besides this it also earn from illegal trade. There are also some reports that it sold arms to terrorist organizations also.

China accounted for an estimated 67.2% of North Korea's exports and 61.6% of imports in 2011. South Korea accounted for 19.4% of exports and 20% of imports, while India received an estimated 3.6% of exports and the European Union provided about 4% of imports in 2011.

Parodite wrote:Anyone daring a bet how to best deal with North Korea?

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The United States walked away from the Agreed Framework with North Korea in 2003.

Three years later, North Korea exploded its first nuclear weapon.

This summer, North Korea started testing long-range missiles that can carry those nuclear weapons to cities in the United States like New York and Los Angeles.

If the United States walks away from the JCPOA, Iran could do the same thing — only faster.

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North Korea’s leader knows he will have enraged Xi by overshadowing the BRICs summit

For the second time in four months Kim Jong Un has dared to humiliate Chinese president Xi Jinping, the one foreign leader with the power to strangle North Korea’s economy with potentially fatal effects for the Pyongyang regime.

Mr Kim not only conducted a nuclear test on Sunday knowing that it would enrage Beijing; he did so as his Chinese counterpart was preparing to receive the heads of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa in the coastal city of Xiamen.

For Mr Xi, the headaches and embarrassments he must regularly endure because of Mr Kim are particularly galling given his personal antipathy for the young ruler.

Mr. Perfect wrote:There is something about the jiggly bouncing of some military marching that strikes me as a bit LGBTXYZ, a little lacking in testosterone. Not sure why signalling cross dressing would be viewed as a way to intimidate the enemy.

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

If Russia, South Korea and Japan solve the NK issue, it would mean US global role diminishing.

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Simple Minded wrote:.

Heracleum Persicum wrote:.

If Russia, South Korea and Japan solve the NK issue, it would mean US global role diminishing.

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amen! The sooner the better.

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Heracleum Persicum wrote:America is 10,000 miles away from North Korea ..

NK grievances is with Japan, America has nothing to do with all this.

Simple Minded wrote:

Heracleum Persicum wrote:If Russia, South Korea and Japan solve the NK issue, it would mean US global role diminishing.

amen! The sooner the better.

Alexis wrote:

Heracleum Persicum wrote:America is 10,000 miles away from North Korea ..

No, the closest US state to North Korea is Alaska. Distance from Pyongyang to Anchorage is 6,000 km in international units, that is 3,700 miles for those who prefer British Empire units.

NK grievances is with Japan, America has nothing to do with all this.

Those are breaking news. All their propaganda has been claiming differently for the past two generations, that's also the rationale for their nuclear deterrence as the regime presents it to the population.

Simple Minded wrote:

Heracleum Persicum wrote:If Russia, South Korea and Japan solve the NK issue, it would mean US global role diminishing.

amen! The sooner the better.

Option to ignore NK nuclear armament does look attractive from a US point of view. America has nuclear deterrence aplenty, and the Pyongyang government has behaved rationally, if inhumanely, in the past.

That being said, China may eventually find the NK joke has grown tired and not funny.

I mean, if Seoul and/or Tokyo become uneasy enough about America no longer being able to guarantee their nuclear defense against the potential or risk of Pyongyang nuclear blackmail - and decide to build national nuclear forces.
- South Koreans favor such a force by 58% to 34%. And that was beginning 2016, when the US nuclear guarantee looked as solid as ever, since the US were out of reach for NK
- SK scientists have estimated the time from political decision to first nuclear test to about 18 months (link in Korean, but automated translation works fine)

When Seoul and/or Tokyo have even a mere regional deterrent able to strike Pyongyang, they also will have a deterrent able to strike Beijing, because distances are not very dissimilar.

The best US policy re. this situation IMO would not be to erupt in empty threats, blusters - the grrr-bowwow-woof version of patriotism - and demands of harsh economic sanctions that China is not inclined to deliver - although they are ready to pretend, given that an open rebuke à la Vladimir Putin would be humiliating for Washington, and Chinese government is not stupid enough to uselessly humiliate American one.

It would be to:
1. State publicly that when NK completes development of its Hwasong-14 missile, puting parts of US territory within the shooting zone, the US won't be able to continue guaranteeing nuclear deterrence for SK, although they will remain an ally and will continue upholding all other parts of their defense pact
2. State that consequently and in the spirit of alliance, once NK has completed Hwasong-14's development, the US will support all adaptations of defense policy that SK may deem advisable. In particular, they will stand in the way of any attempt by the UN to sanction Seoul if it was to decide exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and they will examine with a positive eye potential requests by SK for help in nuclear weapon secure handling or security of nuclear arsenals generally ("just saying, y'know... Why, no, it's not incitement")

Then, US government could grab the popcorn, sit down, relax and watch:
- South Koreans thinking and debating, loudly and openly
- Chinese government looking the SK debate - sweat on their front
- Japanese debating quietly, or possibly not at all. Just looking at the situation with a serene, unassuming, and mysterious face
- Chinese government looking the Japanese busy looking mysterious - are their hands moving? - double sweat on the front, beginning to drip
- Quite possibly, Chinese government banging Kim the Third's head against the wall explaining that completion of Hwasong-14 development is not called for

Anyway, it would be a good show.


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Russia's Putin told Korea's Moon that cutting off oil supplies to North Korea would violate humanitarian norms, suggesting he will block the planned U.S. oil embargo