COVID-19 and Other Pandemics | Anarchy in the USA

[Doc]

they put the Ebola stuff on hold because measles is currently a bigger problem

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/07 ... nd-faster/

Since January 2019, officials have recorded over 100,000 measles cases in the DRC, mostly in children, and nearly 2,000 have died. The figures surpass those of the latest Ebola outbreak in the country, which has tallied not quite 2,500 cases and 1,665 deaths since August 2018.

Hmm A 2% mortality rate a 66.6 % mortality rate....

[noddy]

100 thousand more people ill and needing medical attention, more kids dying, everything about measles is worse.

ebola is seeming unlikely to ever spread very far because its so virulent, it burns out quickly.

[Nonc Hilaire]

I think part of the problem is measles, ebola and a couple other diseases initial presentation is a skin rash.

[noddy]

yeh, the nurse doing triage has to make alot of line calls and its not like the worried parent is comforted by the fact that measles only kills 1 in 50.

[Juno]

how many people get a mild case of the measles and don't report it?

vs.

how many people get a mild case of ebola and keep it to themselves?


Familiarity with statistical databases breeds contempt for any argument based on statistics. Our data is hopelessly polluted, and we pretend it's perfect.

[Doc]

how many people get a mild case of the measles and don't report it?

vs.

how many people get a mild case of ebola and keep it to themselves?


Familiarity with statistical databases breeds contempt for any argument based on statistics. Our data is hopelessly polluted, and we pretend it's perfect.

I don't think there is such a thing as a "mild" case of ebola. People that get Ebola get very sick even if they survive. I know that during the last major outbreak Many people stayed in their homes and never received any treatment so the true death toll was never known. It may have been the hospitals had no room Or that they were true horrors to be in with fellow patients bodies basically dissolving.

[Juno]

how many people get a mild case of the measles and don't report it?

vs.

how many people get a mild case of ebola and keep it to themselves?


Familiarity with statistical databases breeds contempt for any argument based on statistics. Our data is hopelessly polluted, and we pretend it's perfect.

I don't think there is such a thing as a "mild" case of ebola. People that get Ebola get very sick even if they survive. I know that during the last major outbreak Many people stayed in their homes and never received any treatment so the true death toll was never known. It may have been the hospitals had no room Or that they were true horrors to be in with fellow patients bodies basically dissolving.

Exactly.

[Doc]

https://www.axios.com/one-year-mark-sho ... 9788c.html

One year on — No end in sight for deadly Ebola outbreak

[noddy]

A nurse mixes up the wrong preparation for a vaccine, poisons 2 kids with muscle relaxant, this causes the parents to skip next years measles vaccine.

now about 70+ kids have died from measles and many more probably died without notification in villages.

https://theconversation.com/measles-in- ... ter-128467

the government has now forced a vaccine run through all the villages and seemingly stopped it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pac ... vaccinated

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

I'll admit that I feel stupid for bringing this up, but reading those articles, something looks off about their numbers yet I can't quite put my finger on it.

What exactly was Samoa's vaccination rate before the suspension? And what is the failure rate for people who get vaccinated but come down with the disease anyhow?

[noddy]

I believe it was generally poor levels of vaccination, then that dropping away to almost none because of the botched batch , that led to the conditions that measles could travel so far demographicallly, and hit all the folks who arent healthy enough to survive it and live a long way from hospitals.

[Nonc Hilaire]

Vaccinations are not mixed with water by nurses. They are sold ready to use. The explanation is absurd.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Nah, there are vaccines which are reconstituted; that bit makes sense.

[noddy]

the Measles vaccine is a reconsituted vaccine.

another aspect to this is many South Pacific folks are notorious for not trusting the doctors, this goes way beyond vaccinations.

they are so culturally adapted to dying horribly in isolated villages that to this day they dont bother going to the main island and its single hospital until its way too late for any decent success rate.

this has created a reinforcement loop, you go to doctors to die.

[Simple Minded]

this has created a reinforcement loop, you go to doctors to die.

This is eerily similar to the Jeffery Epstein situation. You go into protective custody to get killed.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Speaking of vaccines: last wednesday I split my finger open on a shopping cart at the grocery store. I do not even know what to call the part I cut my hand on, I've been saying spindle or rod...one of the rods which make up the end of the basket was loose, and when I pulled the cart towards me, it split my finger; within seconds, my hand was a bloody mess. So long story short; tetanus shot for me. Since it was late, and I wasn't going to the emergency room far away, I stopped in this emergency care center which was a greater ordeal than the actual accident.

After a good hour wait, the doctor spent some time trying to upsell me on getting all sorts of tests done (like x-rays) then she spent a good 15 minutes marveling at my healing ability because the whole thing looked pretty good two hours later- I'm not convinced the lady was sober.

I'm not even sure I got the right sort of shot. Everyone says tetanus shots are long needles and painful for a few days...but whatever she stuck me with was on the small side and I didn't feel a thing. My arm was something less than sore for less than 24 hours. I mean, it didn't get up to sore...I probably felt a twinge into the next afternoon but that was it.

[noddy]

hah.

We just had a weekend of Emergency room visits, a cut foot took over 4 hrs to be seen and sticthed and the injections were administered by a med student with the shakes.

[noddy]

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 990496135f

The World Health Organisation said it would call an emergency meeting on Wednesday to decide whether the outbreak should be declared an international public health emergency.

Six people have died among 308 cases across China including more than 270 in and around the city of Wuhan.

Last month, doctors began seeing a new type of viral pneumonia - fever, cough, difficulty breathing - in people who spent time at a food market in Wuhan.

So far, the virus appears less dangerous and infectious than SARS, which also started in China and killed about 800 people. As of Tuesday, six deaths had been reported, all in Wuhan. Viruses can mutate into more dangerous and contagious forms, and it’s too early to say what will happen with this one.

[Doc]

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 990496135f

The World Health Organisation said it would call an emergency meeting on Wednesday to decide whether the outbreak should be declared an international public health emergency.

Six people have died among 308 cases across China including more than 270 in and around the city of Wuhan.

Last month, doctors began seeing a new type of viral pneumonia - fever, cough, difficulty breathing - in people who spent time at a food market in Wuhan.

So far, the virus appears less dangerous and infectious than SARS, which also started in China and killed about 800 people. As of Tuesday, six deaths had been reported, all in Wuhan. Viruses can mutate into more dangerous and contagious forms, and it’s too early to say what will happen with this one.

Thus far it seems to be less lethal than the Flu is on the non vaccinated. But it can mutate and become more lethal fairly quickly. If it turns into a pandemic there may be more mechanical ventilators needed than are available.

[Doc]

VLp8CHeKQkI

[Doc]

VLp8CHeKQkI

Number of new (official) cases are growing ~ 60% per day.

At that rate it would take 35 days from today to infect the entire world.

That is of course without intervention.

But consider this: the Spanish Flu killed many by dehydration due to everyone locally getting sick at the same time. In the US whole towns got sick at the same time. People too sick to get out of bed to get something to drink, with no one well enough to help them.

Measles is the most transmissible illness known. It can survive to infect people up to two hours in the air. So why is the Chinese government spraying disinfectant in empty streets and empty parks? Over caution or panic because they know something.. Plus they are working to build a 1,000 bed hospital in 6 days in Wuhan.

Many of the videos showing hospitals om Wuhan overwhelmed with patients are due to this being the flu season and people being understandably frighten. Going to the hospital at the first signs of symptoms which are pretty similar with this outbreak.

At this point it is pretty hard to tell.

One tell is if the number of Coronavirus Wuhan exceeds the total number of people that were infected by SARS in 2003 That was between 7 and 8 thousand people. This out break is set to hit that number in 8 to 9 days

This outbreak seems to have a mortality rate of between 1 to 2 % as opposed to SARS at 10% and MERS which was 35% (Total infections 2,500) Given that the current outbreak so far has seemed much more transmissible, even though much stronger measures have been taken to stem it shows that this could be more serious especially if it mutates to something more deadly. Without mutation it could be in the millions of dead.

There are reports of people that are infected that are not showing a fever. Which largely negates airport screening for fevers.

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I seriously doubt this outbreak will be confined to mostly in Wuhan and even China.

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[crashtech66]

Curious to know if a lot of posters here are frightened of viruses with such a low death rate. Maybe if I was younger I would worry for my kids, but they are all grown up now.

[Doc]

Curious to know if a lot of posters here are frightened of viruses with such a low death rate. Maybe if I was younger I would worry for my kids, but they are all grown up now.

Not frightened here. Just a heads up.

I was told here(in this very thread if I am not mistaken) a few years ago that I was "frightened" because I made the case for 20,000 dead in Africa from ebola. That it would never happen. The final death toll was 11,000.....

[noddy]

I do have breathing issues so perhaps should be frightened but cant say I particularly am.

I am interested in this however for several reasons

- the real mortality rate hasnt established yet but could be 5% ish and in populations of millions and hundreds of millions that still becomes an overwhelming amount of chaos, to be half prepared for. Even though modern medicine can carry someone through most of these diseases now that only works if the hospital isnt overloaded and you get the bed and respirator. In most countries hospitals run at close to capacity already and get overloaded very easily.


- this one is nasty because it has the worst aspect of the flu types , a long incubation of 2 weeks, which means lots of travel and infection can happen before you start showing symptoms.

- any test of global systems is an important test - ebola had too short an incubation to spread far but the worst case of any disease would be this one with ebola type outcomes, so how does that pan out, how effective are travel controls etc.

[Typhoon]

Curious to know if a lot of posters here are frightened of viruses with such a low death rate. Maybe if I was younger I would worry for my kids, but they are all grown up now.

This new coronavirus, or any influenza type virus, is a concern is one is young with not yet full developed immune system, or elderly and in a weak state, or if one's immune system is compromised in some way.