Belarus

[Parodite]

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Times are changing. The next head ache for Putin?

[YMix]

I've been expecting a move in Belarus since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. It's so blindingly obvious...

[Parodite]

I've been expecting a move in Belarus since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. It's so blindingly obvious...

Matter of time.. and interesting to see how it will play out in comparison with the Ukraine.

[Parodite]

Lukashenka Says Belarus Ready For Dialogue With NATO

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka says his country is ready for a "constructive dialogue" with NATO.

Speaking to top Belarusian military officials in Minsk on February 19, Lukashenka said: "As a sovereign state we are open, in particular, to constructive dialogue with NATO on parity and transparency principles."

He added that "we have a lot of common issues [with NATO]; joint work on which fully meets Belarus’s interests."

Lukashenka -- who has ruled for 21 years and been called the last dictator of Europe -- said the fighting in Ukraine has shown that Belarus must have an army capable of protecting "its national interests."

"If need be, we have to be able to defend the independence and sovereignty of our country," he said.

Lukashenka added that additional finances will be allocated for the ongoing systemic renovation of arms in Belarusian armed forces which is scheduled to be accomplished by 2020.

One dictator fearing another...

[Nonc Hilaire]

It will be interesting to see a mechanized infantry based on tractors.

[Typhoon]

Belarus is ready . . .

[YMix]

Constructive dialog means "stalling for as long as necessary, please don't invade me".

[Endovelico]

Constructive dialog means "stalling for as long as necessary, please don't invade me".

The question people should be asking is: do Belarussians prefer living in an independent country ruled by Lukashenka or be part of a Russian Federation ruled by Putin?... Right now I'm not sure the first alternative would be the winner...

[YMix]

The question people should be asking is: do Belarussians prefer living in an independent country ruled by Lukashenka or be part of a Russian Federation ruled by Putin?... Right now I'm not sure the first alternative would be the winner...

Third option: be "liberated" by NATO and the EU in a totally disinterested manner.

[Endovelico]

The question people should be asking is: do Belarussians prefer living in an independent country ruled by Lukashenka or be part of a Russian Federation ruled by Putin?... Right now I'm not sure the first alternative would be the winner...

Third option: be "liberated" by NATO and the EU in a totally disinterested manner.

...in a totally disinterested manner...

[Parodite]

The question people should be asking is: do Belarussians prefer living in an independent country ruled by Lukashenka or be part of a Russian Federation ruled by Putin?... Right now I'm not sure the first alternative would be the winner...

Third option: be "liberated" by NATO and the EU in a totally disinterested manner.

...in a totally disinterested manner...

It´s the moral thing to do! Once liberated... be indifferent to how people use their new freedom. But fair enough.. it would be a good thing warning them against the EU-trap and preying Western oligarchs pointing at Greece, Portugal, Rumania.. as examples of what lays ahead if you just sleepwalk through the transition.

[YMix]

Once liberated... be indifferent to how people use their new freedom.

Except that doesn't happen. The country surrenders part of its sovereignty to NATO, another part to the EU and yet another part to powerful foreign financial and economic interests.

[Parodite]

Once liberated... be indifferent to how people use their new freedom.

Except that doesn't happen. The country surrenders part of its sovereignty to NATO, another part to the EU and yet another part to powerful foreign financial and economic interests.

Most members of NATO don't feel they surrender part of their sovereignty, they just voluntarily want to be part of an alliance they feel protects their sovereignty. Seems to me the only reason there is to be(come) part of NATO.

As for surrendering part of your political sovereignty to the EU, this is something many EU citizens start to be very worried about which means people with same worries in Belarus or Ukraine do have allies in other EU countries to reign in the EUs hunger for more power. There is work to do there.

As for powerful foreign financial interests where big business and banks do land, money, natural resources or any other form of big grabs... they have democracy to control or keep out the oligarch beasts. If the democracy is not very functional... then that should be the first fight to deliver.

[YMix]

Vasile Ernu:

Minsk - between the old and the new
----
No windows were broken in Minsk.
The number of protesters was huge - impressive.
The number of Lukashenko supporters - modest.
"Badika's" speech - pathetic.

Important: all the big factories, plants went on strike.
Especially automakers - Belorussians are still making tractors, cars, trucks, trolleybuses, agricultural machinery, combines, etc. I think they are the only ones in the East who kept this industry intact. And functional. How did they do that? It's another discussion.

These are state-owned enterprises. A kind of state capitalism, but it offers a lot of security and stability to the workers.

Lukashenko begins negotiations with them today. Here is a key element.

The first two points of the opposition's platform are:
- Privatization of all enterprises
- Liberalization of the land - that is, putting it up for sale

Workers are now calling for a "repeat election" - not supporting Lukashenko.

But they also say: stop privatizations.

The bulk of the population is trapped in this vise.

Eastern experience says two things.

1. All important factories (especially vehicle/machinery manufacturing) were destroyed after privatization - workers in machine builders became pickers of strawberries or potatoes. Feel the difference? Belorussian workers do not know the exile of cheap and unskilled labor.
2. There is a strong skepticism of the bulk of the population towards revolutions. Throughout the East, the "orange or white revolutions" brought to power something even more perverse and destructive.

In Moldova, after Voronin, they brought the most terrible gang of oligarchs - they wreaked havoc.

In Georgia, they deindustrialized everything; they even privatized healthcare.

In Ukraine, the disaster caused by Maidan 2 is difficult to estimate.

This does not mean that the "old power" had to be preserved. No.
But they did not negotiate with the new power.

The hatred for the "old" brought in "new" and more terrible predators.

Lukashenko has no legitimacy to stay.

But not negotiating the new social contract would be a disaster.
Especially in Belarus, where there is still a lot of "welfare state" and "state property".

I hope that the Belorussians will not go down the Ukrainian path.

They should negotiate both the political freedoms they fight for and the social and economic ones.

We don't want to know the kind of "young and civilized" hyenas - local, eastern and western - who are waiting to grab everything.

Let's hope that the Belorussians will be a little wiser after the wave passes and will negotiate in their interest.

Lukashenko has no future. It would be good if he negotiated his departure. Belorussians seem to be willing to go through the negotiations. In this global context, this is the wiser choice.

At this moment, the workers of big companies matter a lot: unless they allow themselves to be cheated...