The eternal US elections - 2016 edition

[kmich]

The count puts a .002 margin between them. How much would you bet that we couldn't rout that out by the usual patterns of voter fraud?

Taking into account voter fraud and disenfranchisement perpetrated by both sides?

Anyway, that wasn't the point for me, but rather the fact that the popular vote is split almost equally between the candidates. No landslide for Trump.

Whatever. Winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote remains the exception in our history and usually reflects significant, political divisions. A 230 K voter fraud favoring one side or the other in this day and age seems quite fanciful. The last time we had a true fraudulent situation in our presidential elections was the Hayes-Tilden contest of 1876, 11 years after our Civil War.

Its probably not necessary to be pissing in the victors' punch bowls right now, they will have a long four years to do that themselves.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

The count puts a .002 margin between them. How much would you bet that we couldn't rout that out by the usual patterns of voter fraud?

Taking into account voter fraud and disenfranchisement perpetrated by both sides?

Anyway, that wasn't the point for me, but rather the fact that the popular vote is split almost equally between the candidates. No landslide for Trump.

Right now even CNN has Trump as the projected winner for the popular vote.

He should win the popular vote and will be taking Michigan to give him 306 electoral college votes. While I would not call it a landslide, to act as if it isn't very decisive is sticking your head in the sand.

As for voting fraud:

Mr.P might say, "Not a peep from you about fraud and disenfranchisement triangulation" before the results were in.

The Democratic Party is very vocal and with the explicit backing of the bar in fighting the Republican party on disenfranchisement. Which is why Democratic bastions always get extra time before the polls close, ballots mysteriously appear from the back of vans and whole wards and districts end up voting 100% Democratic ticket without anyone batting an eye.

But yeah, let's take into account voter fraud from both sides- I would be very comfortable in adding Rhode Island, Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota to Trump's final tally.

[Mr. Perfect]

The count puts a .002 margin between them. How much would you bet that we couldn't rout that out by the usual patterns of voter fraud?

Taking into account voter fraud and disenfranchisement perpetrated by both sides?

Anyway, that wasn't the point for me, but rather the fact that the popular vote is split almost equally between the candidates. No landslide for Trump.

I've been mulling it over and we have to go landslide Trump. He'll get over 300 electors and from states the GOP hasn't won since Reagan. The enormity of those wins can't be exaggerated. And amazingly he spent the last two weeks campaigning daily in those states while the media laughed at him and Hillary loafed around much like Gore did. When you focus on winning swing states it's a different strategy than for a popular vote. Democrats apparently didn't know the rules this year or 2000.

[Mr. Perfect]

P!us the media that supported her has universally been calling it a wipeout. Non landslide is looking like a fringe opinion.

[YMix]

Right now even CNN has Trump as the projected winner for the popular vote.

I've already noticed the "95.2% of votes accounted for" bit in kmich's post. I am aware that the final tally could be in Trump's favor.

While I would not call it a landslide, to act as if it isn't very decisive is sticking your head in the sand.

Not as decisive as Mr. Perfect would like it.

Mr.P might say, "Not a peep from you about fraud and disenfranchisement triangulation" before the results were in.

You're the one who brought it up.

The Democratic Party is very vocal and with the explicit backing of the bar in fighting the Republican party on disenfranchisement. Which is why Democratic bastions always get extra time before the polls close, ballots mysteriously appear from the back of vans and whole wards and districts end up voting 100% Democratic ticket without anyone batting an eye.

But yeah, let's take into account voter fraud from both sides- I would be very comfortable in adding Rhode Island, Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota to Trump's final tally.

So add them.

[Mr. Perfect]

Not as decisive as Mr. Perfect would like it.

|

I do like to run up the score, but I am very happy with the result.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

So add them.

well, don't mind if I do.

[YMix]

well, don't mind if I do.

If you have proof of voter fraud, go ahead and make it public. Of course, that may open the whole can of worms, but at least it would be fun.

[kmich]

well, don't mind if I do.

If you have proof of voter fraud, go ahead and make it public. Of course, that may open the whole can of worms, but at least it would be fun.

Break out the tinfoil hats!

[kmich]

Right now even CNN has Trump as the projected winner for the popular vote.

Not sure where you are getting that, from CNN updated 1 hour ago: Hillary Clinton lost the election but is winning the popular vote

He should win the popular vote and will be taking Michigan to give him 306 electoral college votes. While I would not call it a landslide, to act as if it isn't very decisive is sticking your head in the sand.

Drama, surprise, and the heady elation of victory are not the same as political decisiveness. Both candidates were controversial and unpopular choices, and the country is more divided than ever. Our politics remains deeply muddled and unresolved.

[Typhoon]

US POTUS popular vote percentages

The good news for the Republicrats is that they have the POTUS, US Senate, and US House.
If things go well during the next four years, then they get the credit.

The bad news for the Republicrats is that they have the POTUS, US Senate, and US House.
If things go poorly during the next four years*, then they get the blame.

*It is possible, contrary to what some may believe.

On another note, the winning party being able to gerrymander voting districts is an Achille's Heel of the US election process, in acute but unlikely need of reform.

[Mr. Perfect]

US POTUS popular vote percentages

The good news for the Republicrats is that they have the POTUS, US Senate, and US House.
If things go well during the next four years, then they get the credit.

The bad news for the Republicrats is that they have the POTUS, US Senate, and US House.
If things go poorly during the next four years*, then they get the blame.

*It is possible, contrary to what some may believe.

On another note, the winning party being able to gerrymander voting districts is an Achille's Heel of the US election process, in acute but unlikely need of reform.

Lol no, you can't gerrymander the electoral college, Senate Seats, Governorships, or state legislatures, and we own them all. You've been deceived again.

[Mr. Perfect]

Results as of now with 95.2% of votes accounted for:

Trump 290 electoral votes. Clinton: 228 electoral votes.

Trump: 59,692,974 popular votes (47.5%). Clinton: 59,923,027 popular votes (47.7%).

Trump ultimately obtains the electoral college majority to win the election, but narrowly loses the popular vote by 230,053, and, as such, joins 4 other presidents in our history who did the same: John Quincy Adams 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes 1876, Benjamin Harrison 1888, and George W. Bush in 2000.

Trump is the president elect, and I wish him the best and for his success for the sake of my country. However, this was an ugly, divisive election between parties, within parties, and within American society. Much healing and relationship building will need to be accomplished for a successful presidency to be possible.

Trump's victory speech was somewhat encouraging in that regard. We shall see. Crowing and gloating about victory is the last thing the victors and their supporters need to be doing now, as well as blaming and seeking scapegoats by the losers. Shocks will wear off, life will go on, and all we can do is the best we can as responsible citizens. I remain very pessimistic about our future, however. The dysfunction goes way beyond any individual party or presidential administration.

We have just defeated the most corrupt immoral criminal entity in US politics, that your party has foisted on us for decades. They have been destroyed to the last atom. This is a time for profound celebration.

[Mr. Perfect]

The Clintons are superpredators.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Not sure where you are getting that, from CNN updated 1 hour ago: Hillary Clinton lost the election but is winning the popular vote

Click on the tab for the popular vote. In the top right corner, next to the little check mark, it says Trump is the projected winner. The last I checked, he was starting to catch up a bit. If he does pass, he will squeeze by and both will remain more or less statistically tied.

Drama, surprise, and the heady elation of victory are not the same as political decisiveness. Both candidates were controversial and unpopular choices, and the country is more divided than ever. Our politics remains deeply muddled and unresolved.

What was decisive is that he heads into office with roughly the same plurality as President Clinton and he carried the down ticket with him. Voters rejected those who rejected Trump.

[Mr. Perfect]

Drama, surprise, and the heady elation of victory are not the same as political decisiveness. Both candidates were controversial and unpopular choices, and the country is more divided than ever. Our politics remains deeply muddled and unresolved.

Lol, the GOP owns over 60% of government, fedstatelocal. We are rarely less divided. You live in a bubble.

Trump will have an approval rating closing in on 60% very soon.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

On another note, the winning party being able to gerrymander voting districts is an Achille's Heel of the US election process, in acute but unlikely need of reform.

So you are saying we should eliminate those specially designed districts which give African- Americans a chance at representation? Interesting strategy.

[Mr. Perfect]

Rumors are swirling Trump will overtake Clinton in the popular vote. I have no inside information, but lots of people predicting it.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

update on that CNN page: no longer predicting Trump as popular vote winner

[kmich]

update on that CNN page: no longer predicting Trump as popular vote winner

Whatever. The current popular vote total:

Clinton: 60,828,358
Trump: 60,261,924

Difference of 566,434 for Clinton. Trump leads in Michigan by 12,000 votes. Trump has won the electoral college but not the popular vote.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

update on that CNN page: no longer predicting Trump as popular vote winner

Whatever. The current popular vote total:

Clinton: 60,828,358
Trump: 60,261,924

Difference of 566,434 for Clinton. Trump leads in Michigan by 12,000 votes. Trump has won the electoral college but not the popular vote.

When I originally posted it, it predicted Trump was projected to be the winner of the popular vote. That changed. It changed sometime after you asking me where it suggested he was predicted to win the popular vote. I decided to update when I noticed the information change.

I wasn't the only one here who saw it.

It used to look like this:



Which made sense as there were still plenty of areas left for Trump to gain votes. But it was not to be.

That you either didn't see it or didn't know how to navigate the CNN page at the time is not my problem.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

Looking at how the numbers are shaking out, the #NeverTrumpers have indeed cost Trump the popular vote.

And noddy was right about people being turned off by Trump to a certain extent and we can track exactly who these people are. Evan McMullin sole purpose was to siphon off votes from Trump with a very outside chance of blocking him in Utah wholesale, so his votes were definitely #NeverTrump. Something similar applies to Gary Johnson as he so badly crashed and burned (and early on too) we can attribute the rise in his vote total from 2012 to the #NeverTrump constituency. For example, his 1% in Minnesota in 2012 was 4% this time out - that's a +3 of NeverTrumpers- while McMullin grabbed an additional 1.8.

Trump lost Minnesota by 1.4% and could have used a portion of that 4.8% #NeverTrumper support.

Hillary and Jill Stein are a bit harder to untangle. Stein not only didn't fall flat like Johnson, she had been very active in growing her base and distinguishing it from the Democratic Party, in the broad.

Where she siphoned off votes was with the portion of the Bernie crowd which was never going to go for Hillary anyway. Instead of staying home, they voted Stein.

And as Hillary's campaign has admitted, they were looking for larger single women, black and Hispanic turnouts which didn't materialize. Those groups qua groups didn't magically translate into Stein voters.

There is also more overlap between the Libertarian Johnson (Johnson and Weld being businessmen Republican types) and the Republican Party than there is with Hillary's Democratic Party and the Greens.

[Mr. Perfect]

I think that's correct. What blows my mind is Demonrats are just wailing like banshees but trump looked up the rules of the contest and spent the last 2 weeks working his old @$$ off campaigning in the risky states he had to win while Hillary partied with celebrities. Trump earned it the old fashioned way. Congratulations Mr President.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

I think that's correct. What blows my mind is Demonrats are just wailing like banshees but trump looked up the rules of the contest and spent the last 2 weeks working his old @$$ off campaigning in the risky states he had to win while Hillary partied with celebrities. Trump earned it the old fashioned way. Congratulations Mr President.

He did win it the old fashioned way with a whistle-tour.

Above all, he's proved that you do not need all this campaign money to run competitively in an election.

[Mr. Perfect]

Yup. Pretty much just a twitter account.