The Donald....the newest savior.....

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Parodite
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Parodite »

Not impressed with this article. That a Trump voter is not one type of a person and a Clinton voter an entirely different one is obvious. Does it turn out to be more of a mixed bag than many people liked to assume? Well, it is election season in an extremely polarized atmosphere. That there can be many devils in many details maybe everybody is aware of normally... but ye Americans have to make a binary choice of nov 8. In its own way that is tough.

There is always more to research and do polls on, every statistics raises more questions that need more research and polling.

For instance and for punfun, a nice research and poll would be in the context of this article: how many people actually believed that most Trump supporters are poor white people? Who are those believers and where are they?

It might turn out that only a relative handful strongly believed this to be the case; maybe some journalists and some of their readership. Where are the data that support the assumption from which this article draws its justification?

What would be the answer of a big enough random poll among Americans (journalists included) to this question: Do you think that most Trump supporters are poor white people? Yes/No/Maybe etc. Haven't seen a poll on that yet. Could be interesting.. and equally embarrassing.

Another problem with the article is this part:
Meanwhile, the racism and nationalism that surely exist among them also exist among Democrats and higher socioeconomic strata. A poll conducted last spring by Reuters found that a third of questioned Democrats supported a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. In another, by YouGov, 45% of polled Democrats reported holding an unfavorable view of Islam, with almost no fluctuation based on household income. Those who won’t vote for Trump are not necessarily paragons of virtue, while the rest are easily scapegoated as the country’s moral scourge.
Here they fall in the same trap they exposed when it came to economic classes. The assumption was debunked that to vote Trump you had to be white, poor and miserable... but the new assumption that replaces the old one is that to hold unfavorable views of Islam and support a temporary ban on Muslims entering the US... you need to be either a racist, a nationalist, or both. But that is equally painting people with a big brush; it would require more research and polling to get more details why, in what way they have unfavorable views of Islam and why they want a temporal ban on immigration. Maybe it turns out that 90% of them indeed have strong proven racist sentiments (despite the caveat that Islam is not a race of course)... or maybe it turns out that only 2,5% are racist? And what about being "a nationalist"? What does it mean to begin with? Just Graunadian sound bites... and same old propaganda i.e. lazy thinking!

In fairness, same can be said of the infamous BBC poll after the Charlie Hebdo murders among British Muslims. When 10% of British Muslims think the murders were legit..or at least justifiable-understandable.. does that mean that when you meet 10 Muslims on a day.. one of them must be a nasty arsehole and time-bomb ready to go off? Of course not. The number of 10% is useless.. because you need to know who they are, where they are exactly. And which of them is or might be a danger to others in society. 10% is a reason for concern.. but still requires further research to be meaningful, useful to anyone. All else is just throwing around paint.
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Mr. Perfect
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Mr. Perfect »

If the daily mail article is true hilliar is going to jail regardless of Trump abortions. And O'Keefe said today he is in possession of the so called racist tape. The only issue is how bad it is and who is in it.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Simple Minded »

Parodite wrote:
...That a Trump voter is not one type of a person and a Clinton voter an entirely different one is obvious. Does it turn out to be more of a mixed bag than many people liked to assume?

.... All else is just throwing around paint.
I think you nailed the whole point of the article in three sentences. Too short an opinion, I suspect, to be an editorial many would par for.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Mr. Perfect »

The polls this morning are sweet. However nevertrump remains a problem as we are at the edge of that margin.
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NapLajoieonSteroids
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by NapLajoieonSteroids »

According to the LA Times, he is currently leading with every age group:

Image is a bit too big to post, so here's the hyperlink
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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'American dream' is dead without urgent action

In an open letter, Allianz CEO Oliver Bäte calls for concerted action by the United States to restore social consensus. Investments should be made to both reinforce the democratic foundation of the country and overcome the structural problems hurting the competitiveness of the economy.

The world followed the United States in the 20th century primarily because it was the leading democracy, not so much because of its economic and military might. Only a return to this democratic strength will ensure America's success in the future.

At the heart of this democratic leadership was the "American dream": the proverbial opportunity for all citizens and immigrants to work their way up from rags to riches. It involved basic democratic elements of an enterprising and fair society: equal opportunities with social mobility, free markets and entrepreneurial spirit, personal freedom and security. Even those who didn't become millionaires could, with sufficient personal effort, lead a socially and economically fulfilling life, with each generation doing better than the one before.

For a couple of years now, that has not been the case. Even with last year's strong rise, the average real income of households remains significantly lower than its peak in 1999. The shrinking middle class and the poor sections of society experienced a disproportionate decline. Educational opportunities also are unfairly distributed. Simply put, too many children in the US leave public schools, leading to woeful gaps in knowledge.

Structural problems, not cyclical ones, are undermining the U.S. economy's competitiveness and widening the divide between the rich and the poor. The pensions gap is widening.

Despite reforms, only the rich can afford high-quality healthcare, even though eight years after the financial crisis, the average annual US growth is 2 percent, unemployment has halved to 5 percent and real wages have started rising recently.

Americans sense that these developments threaten their prosperity. The country's claim that it is the world's leading democracy has been wobbly since the failed wars in the Middle East and the global financial crisis, which began on Wall Street.

However, many overlook the structural problems because of the strength of private American companies and the country's military dominance. Without the United States, Europe would scarcely be able to defend itself. And of the 10 most valuable companies in the world, the top nine are American.

Nevertheless, undeniable strengths must not make America blind to a self-critical analysis of its shortcomings and the need for reforms. Otherwise, polarization and paralysis in many sections of US society will linger: a partisan cold war in Congress, excesses in the presidential campaign and conditions resembling a civil war in big cities with a large population of minorities.

For that reason, after election day, U.S. politics must make a concerted effort to put the country's interests over any special interest. Opportunities that are not fully available to broad sections of the population must be reopened, with the same optimism and pragmatism that symbolized the United States once upon a time.

There is a need for greater investment, innovation and efforts to spread the wealth wider. It's time for a growth policy that doesn't exclude extensive parts of society and strengthens American small and medium-sized businesses.

Among the tasks awaiting the new government are: equal opportunities in education and social mobility, modernization of public and social infrastructure, and support for personal freedom and security. If social consensus isn't achieved, there is reason to fear that the fissures in US society will become bigger.

I wish to see the United States regain its social and economic unity under the great idea of the American dream. We, as friends and partners, should do all we can to help America return to its democratic strength and implement required reforms.

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YMix
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by YMix »

The world followed the United States in the 20th century primarily because it was the leading democracy, not so much because of its economic and military might.
Amusing.
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

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I am voting for Trump ..

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Mr. Perfect
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Lol I accepted trump losing back in March, so I'm not sure what you are talking about. Your attempts to rewrite us history are quite well documented, but wot ever succeed. The economic record of the us is set in stone, even the Reagan years. There is nothing you can do about it.
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YMix
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by YMix »

Wot ever indeed.
“There are a lot of killers. We’ve got a lot of killers. What, do you think our country’s so innocent? Take a look at what we’ve done, too.” - Donald J. Trump, President of the USA
The Kushner sh*t is greasy - Stevie B.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.


Presidential race tightens in new poll
voters increasingly believe Trump is more honest and trustworthy
:lol:

. . Trump has opened up an eight-point advantage over Clinton on which candidate is more honest and trustworthy, leading 46 to 38 per cent among likely voters.

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noddy
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by noddy »

NapLajoieonSteroids wrote:Word on the street is that there is a November Surprise coming for Trump this Wednesday.

The rumor is that it will be about abortion. I'm assuming for at least one he procured over the years.

And the people are putting it out are Rich Wilson and Liz Mair. Both quote unquote conservatives.

I think my head will explode- talk about an "own goal"

Where's noddy at? A few weeks ago we were talking about Trump and his responsibility for the outcome of the polls.

Well, exhibit 4000 of how a very small (albeit powerful) group of people on his own side are actively try to ruin his campaign. Some of these people have never worked this hard in their lives.

All for the benefit of kicking out the fungible businessman not so different policy-wise and willing to make a deal on judges with you; for a crook who never backs down from a fight, with a 20 year vendetta against most of these people [see: vast right wing conspiracy days] and no particular record of compromise. She will salt the earth so that any policy they are attached to never grow again [especially abortion]...but hey, they'll stop Trump who was bad for being uncouth. Can't have that.

Just thinking about this has taken a good five years off my life.

my opinion is unchanged, i was aware of this type of thing at the time - i can easily spin that into the story that he alienated too many folks too fast.

politics is right of might rules, their are no excuses, you either have the clout or you dont.

his unfocused and spur of the moment mouth takes a truckload of explaining, all the pro trump people spend alot of time either explaining trash talk or comparing to hillary, these are bad signs.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Mr. Perfect »

noddy wrote: my opinion is unchanged, i was aware of this type of thing at the time - i can easily spin that into the story that he alienated too many folks too fast.

politics is right of might rules, their are no excuses, you either have the clout or you dont.

his unfocused and spur of the moment mouth takes a truckload of explaining, all the pro trump people spend alot of time either explaining trash talk or comparing to hillary, these are bad signs.
Not when you examine what the nevertrumpers actually say. That is the problem with your position. They had no problem covering for Bush in similar situations. They are bent that he didn't come out of their particular slice of the party, that's all.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by noddy »

Mr. Perfect wrote:
noddy wrote: my opinion is unchanged, i was aware of this type of thing at the time - i can easily spin that into the story that he alienated too many folks too fast.

politics is right of might rules, their are no excuses, you either have the clout or you dont.

his unfocused and spur of the moment mouth takes a truckload of explaining, all the pro trump people spend alot of time either explaining trash talk or comparing to hillary, these are bad signs.
Not when you examine what the nevertrumpers actually say. That is the problem with your position. They had no problem covering for Bush in similar situations. They are bent that he didn't come out of their particular slice of the party, that's all.
gop is what it is and grabbing 50% + requires a big tent policy.

if he was going to pull off half of what he promised he was going to need to have those folks on board.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Mr. Perfect »

You didn't respond to what I said. This is 3 elections in a row where a small slice of the party threw a tantrum with 3 very different candidates. It's basic problem identification. Hrc is the worst candidate they've run in a few, Sanders voters were looking for diametric opposite but they all buckled down and played their role. My side hasn't done that.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Nonc Hilaire wrote:Or a Clinton mole.
Lol no.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Doc »

Mr. Perfect wrote:You didn't respond to what I said. This is 3 elections in a row where a small slice of the party threw a tantrum with 3 very different candidates. It's basic problem identification. Hrc is the worst candidate they've run in a few, Sanders voters were looking for diametric opposite but they all buckled down and played their role. My side hasn't done that.

The NeverReagans fell in to line pretty quickly after Reagan won. Especially after he thru them the bone of GHW Bush as VP. That was Reagan's big mistake. He didn't owe them anything. They needed him.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by noddy »

Mr. Perfect wrote:You didn't respond to what I said. This is 3 elections in a row where a small slice of the party threw a tantrum with 3 very different candidates. It's basic problem identification. Hrc is the worst candidate they've run in a few, Sanders voters were looking for diametric opposite but they all buckled down and played their role. My side hasn't done that.
except the opposite happened and the pissed of sanders supporters in swing states went trump :)

both of us wrong and reality was elsewhere.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by NapLajoieonSteroids »

noddy wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:You didn't respond to what I said. This is 3 elections in a row where a small slice of the party threw a tantrum with 3 very different candidates. It's basic problem identification. Hrc is the worst candidate they've run in a few, Sanders voters were looking for diametric opposite but they all buckled down and played their role. My side hasn't done that.
except the opposite happened and the pissed of sanders supporters in swing states went trump :)

both of us wrong and reality was elsewhere.
But it looked like I was pretty right. I'll be waiting here for all the praise and laurels that are becoming of a prognosticator such as myself. ;)
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Mr. Perfect »

Congratulations bro, you did it. First election win, and it was as big as it gets. Enjoy every second.

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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Mr. Perfect »

noddy wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:You didn't respond to what I said. This is 3 elections in a row where a small slice of the party threw a tantrum with 3 very different candidates. It's basic problem identification. Hrc is the worst candidate they've run in a few, Sanders voters were looking for diametric opposite but they all buckled down and played their role. My side hasn't done that.
except the opposite happened and the pissed of sanders supporters in swing states went trump :)

both of us wrong and reality was elsewhere.
And I've never been more happy to be wrong. Overjoyed. :)
Last edited by Mr. Perfect on Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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noddy
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by noddy »

NapLajoieonSteroids wrote:
noddy wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:You didn't respond to what I said. This is 3 elections in a row where a small slice of the party threw a tantrum with 3 very different candidates. It's basic problem identification. Hrc is the worst candidate they've run in a few, Sanders voters were looking for diametric opposite but they all buckled down and played their role. My side hasn't done that.
except the opposite happened and the pissed of sanders supporters in swing states went trump :)

both of us wrong and reality was elsewhere.
But it looked like I was pretty right. I'll be waiting here for all the praise and laurels that are becoming of a prognosticator such as myself. ;)
is this a million monkeys situation or a broken watch one :)

j/j well probinated.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by NapLajoieonSteroids »

noddy wrote:
NapLajoieonSteroids wrote:
noddy wrote:
Mr. Perfect wrote:You didn't respond to what I said. This is 3 elections in a row where a small slice of the party threw a tantrum with 3 very different candidates. It's basic problem identification. Hrc is the worst candidate they've run in a few, Sanders voters were looking for diametric opposite but they all buckled down and played their role. My side hasn't done that.
except the opposite happened and the pissed of sanders supporters in swing states went trump :)

both of us wrong and reality was elsewhere.
But it looked like I was pretty right. I'll be waiting here for all the praise and laurels that are becoming of a prognosticator such as myself. ;)
is this a million monkeys situation or a broken watch one :)

j/j well probinated.
no "j/j" necessary :lol:

Though I'm thinking Nate Silver should hand his lil' company over to me.

And until that happens I'm going to keep coming up with ways to be as ultra-smug and haughty as possible. ;)

Like I said in SM's thread about election day observations- the final data of this election will be very interesting to see.

So far exit polling is showing Hispanics voted for Trump at a slightly higher margin than Romney. Something like 31% vs 29%. So, "Let's Build A Wall" Trump didn't exactly mobilize a greater anti-Trump Hispanic wave. Trump won on College graduates and non-college graduates.

Trump won on whites but lower than the <60% that was thought to be necessary for Republicans to win going forward. He pulled in a higher percentage of "Asians". He pulled in 15% of Black Men.

The group that really killed him was Black Women w/o college degrees: Something like 1% voted Trump.

Romney had something like 70 percent of White Protestants, Trump was at 67%....reading that Evangelicals broke huge for him.

Catholics also broke huge for him. Might be the first President since Reagan to have majority of Catholic vote. If I remember correctly, Bush(s)/Dole/Romney/McCain all were stuck at 45 to 53% Catholic vote. Trump got something like 57% of the vote.

Jews were 3:1 for Hillary.

....all could be garbage, we won't know until FEC puts out their own report-
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NapLajoieonSteroids
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by NapLajoieonSteroids »

Also, if the exit polls are to be believed, voting was down somewhere between 2% and 7% of 2012.

African-Americans stayed home which should've been expected. The Democrats misread the situation because it became in-party dogma the "black" vote was permanently, politically mobilized because of President Obama; at least for Presidental elections.

Instead, going by the data of the last 100 years, blacks are a sectarian block akin to the Catholic situation in Northern Ireland. They will come out and vote as identity affirmation whether that affirmation is attached to one party or the other. Whether that is good or bad thing is besides the point because that's reality as it is. Why the Democrats thought that would change would be almost mystifying if it hasn't been obvious for quite some time that the Democratic party suffers from a poor conscience and mistakes their self-interested stronghold on college campus thought as actually reflecting everyday dynamics of people's opinions.

One of the many bright things the Donald did while campaigning was investing a bit of time in going to African-American venues and meeting with "community representatives": be that in churches, in the entertainment industry, et al. It signaled to enough people that he wasn't a threat to their identity and that they need not make the effort to vote for Hillary.
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Re: The Donald....the newest savior.....

Post by Mr. Perfect »

So napster, how did your first teabagging feel? I love teabagging Democrats, always look forward to it.
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