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Ibn Warraq discovers Spengler
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2016 1:09 am
by Apollonius
Demographics: Why Islamic societies are dying - Ibn Warraq,
New English Review, April 2016
http://www.newenglishreview.org/Ibn_War ... are_Dying/
One of the most startling and original books I have read in the last five years is surely David P. Goldman’s How Civilizations Die (And Why Islam is Dying too).[1]
Right from the beginning of his Introduction, Goldman shatters so many of our strongly held beliefs that we are left reeling, and pondering the truly disturbing implications of his conclusions, which are all backed by statistics from recognized sources such as the United Nations. Here are some of his observations from his dramatic introduction, “For the first time in history, the birth rate of the whole developed world is well below replacement, and a significant part of it has passed the demographic point of no return.”
However, all is not well in the Islamic world either, “But Islamic society is even more fragile. As Muslim fertility shrinks at the rate demographers have never seen before, it is converging on Europe’s catastrophically low fertility as if in time-lapse photography. Iranian women in their twenties who grew up with five or six siblings will bear only or two children during their lifetimes. Turkey and Algeria are just behind Iran on the way down, and most other Muslim countries are catching up quickly. By the middle of this century, the belt of Muslim countries from Morocco to Iran will become as gray as depopulating Europe. The Islamic world will have the same proportion of dependent elderly as the industrial countries - but one tenth the productivity. A time bomb is ticking in the Muslim world”.[2] ...
Re: Ibn Warraq discovers Spengler
Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:15 am
by Mr. Perfect
Elon Muck discovers Goldman. That darn Goldman is right about so many things.
dswbe1S6LuA
Re: Ibn Warraq discovers Spengler
Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:14 pm
by Enki
Elon Musk has a bunch of kids of his own.
One thing Goldman never allows in his model is an evolutionary adaptation. He's looking at civilization through the lens of older civilizations which had higher birth rates as well as higher mortality rates. He also has this idea that the civilizations are simply incompatible. There is short term evidence that this is true, but there is short term evidence that this is true with every immigrant population in all of history in the first and second generation.
He also does not take into account the environmental collapse aspect. Or the automation aspect where we don't need a lot of excess workers.
Maybe there is something greater at work here than what David Goldman is capable of perceiving.
Re: Ibn Warraq discovers Spengler
Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:38 am
by Simple Minded
So... it seems even in modern post-modern world, the old saw about "In the long run we're all dead!" still rings true. Who knew?
Or as the comedian said "Genetic science has proven that having children runs in families. If your parents didn't have kids, chances are very high you won't either."
Predicting what the future holds 100 years from now, by projecting past trends forward, is a pretty safe career choice. Big money, little risk. Lots of potential buyer, no confirmers.
Re: Ibn Warraq discovers Spengler
Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:44 am
by Simple Minded
Mr. Perfect wrote:Elon Muck discovers Goldman. That darn Goldman is right about so many things.
dswbe1S6LuA
Hmmm, so, with a declining population, why the rush to colonize Mars? I mean, aren't we looking at declining property prices all over the world?
And once the Solent Green facilities come on line, hunger will no longer exist anywhere on Earth.
Call me silly, but I think the future looks pretty damn good. What am I missing?
What was the final warning? Warming?
Re: Ibn Warraq discovers Spengler
Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:38 pm
by noddy
we exploded from millions to billions so fast it seems premature to worry about the catastrophic sounding numbers.
eg: the hobby horse of japan as leading example of this demographic destruction.
the demographic destruction means returning to numbers of barely over a 100 years ago - noone was calling them dead then.
billions of humans is - lots.
Re: Ibn Warraq discovers Spengler
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:34 pm
by Typhoon
noddy wrote:we exploded from millions to billions so fast it seems premature to worry about the catastrophic sounding numbers.
eg: the hobby horse of japan as leading example of this demographic destruction.
the demographic destruction means returning to numbers of barely over a 100 years ago - noone was calling them dead then.
billions of humans is - lots.
The tricky bit is supporting those in the elderly population bulge until they die off.
Re: Ibn Warraq discovers Spengler
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:45 pm
by Mr. Perfect
Ponzi scheme government pensions aren't going to age well. And yes we told you so.
Re: Ibn Warraq discovers Spengler
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:45 pm
by Mr. Perfect
Simple Minded wrote:
Hmmm, so, with a declining population, why the rush to colonize Mars? I mean, aren't we looking at declining property prices all over the world?
And once the Solent Green facilities come on line, hunger will no longer exist anywhere on Earth.
Call me silly, but I think the future looks pretty damn good. What am I missing?
What was the final warning? Warming?
It's always the intellectual vanity of certain elites.