Romney vs. Obama

[Mr. Perfect]

It's on.

Mitt's ahead, 47-45. I give Mitt a 57% chance of winning. I think it is higher than 47-45 because likely voters are trending GOP vs the Democrats based on enthusiasm. Obama has lost a lot of independents.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153902/Romne ... egins.aspx

[Demon of Undoing]

Oy. Has it been four years already?

[Mr. Perfect]

Romney up by 5 now, 48-43. I told you he would rise once the primary was settled.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

[Enki]

Romney up by 5 now, 48-43. I told you he would rise once the primary was settled.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

The campaign hasn't even started yet.

You really don't understand politics.

[cdgt]

If a potted plant could secure the GOP nomination, that should be good for at least 45pts when the economy and the opposing Barry/Biden ticket is factored into the equation.

I look for a 55/45 split with more margin in the electoral college.

Unless Romney manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Enki]

If a potted plant could secure the GOP nomination, that should be good for at least 45pts when the economy and the opposing Barry/Biden ticket is factored into the equation.

I look for a 55/45 split with more margin in the electoral college.

Unless Romney manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Romney is not in the lead. Romney is the underdog. Romney won't win, but Obama might lose. Romney just doesn't have the campaign resources in place that OFA does, he just doesn't. The whole time he was fighting a Primary, Obama's people were keeping track of the dirt the other campaigns collected, and seeding the ground for a local grassroots effort that they will mobilize come time for GOTV in November.

[Marcus]

Way too early to tell from where I sit. What's the memory span of the American voter? Thirty days? Sixty at the most.

Lots can and will happen 'tween now and then.

And, Tinker, don't get too cocky or overconfident. I remember the Truman-Dewey election . . I really do. I remember walking to grade school with other little kids all chanting:

"Dewey's in the White House
eating milk and gravy.
Truman's at the back door
crying like a baby."

Wait and see . . .

[Enki]

Way too early to tell from where I sit. What's the memory span of the American voter? Thirty days? Sixty at the most.

Lots can and will happen 'tween now and then.

The polls will flip back and forth several times.

Meanwhile, the parties haven't even had their conventions yet.

[Ibrahim]

What's the difference between the two again?

I'm not being flippant, had the GOP put up somebody like Santorum there would be some real differences between the two. But as it stands does anybody really believe there will be a noticeable difference between how Romney would govern and how Obama has governed?

Assuming everybody present is smart enough not to buy all the campaign rhetoric, of course.

The polls will flip back and forth several times.

Meanwhile, the parties haven't even had their conventions yet.

Precisely. It tighten up and become a competitive election, despite the lack of real choice. Like a Gators/Seminoles game.

[Enki]

Way too early to tell from where I sit. What's the memory span of the American voter? Thirty days? Sixty at the most.

Lots can and will happen 'tween now and then.

And, Tinker, don't get too cocky or overconfident. I remember the Truman-Dewey election . . I really do. I remember walking to grade school with other little kids all chanting:

"Dewey's in the White House
eating milk and gravy.
Truman's at the back door
crying like a baby."

Wait and see . . .

What's overconfident about it? I am not going to vote for Barack Obama. I just know a bit about voter contact, and know that Obama is going to school Romney on it. Obama has more money and a superior campaign machine. It's pretty simple. Obama would have to do something tremendously out of line between now and the election to lose the campaign.

Obama was elected by defeating the man who defeated Mitt Romney.

[Marcus]

What's overconfident about it? I am not going to vote for Barack Obama. I just know a bit about voter contact, and know that Obama is going to school Romney on it. Obama has more money and a superior campaign machine. It's pretty simple. Obama would have to do something tremendously out of line between now and the election to lose the campaign.

Obama was elected by defeating the man who defeated Mitt Romney.

I imagine that's about what Dewey's campaign thought too. I'll wait and see.

"But Mousie, thou art no thy lane,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft agley,
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!"

[Enki]

What's overconfident about it? I am not going to vote for Barack Obama. I just know a bit about voter contact, and know that Obama is going to school Romney on it. Obama has more money and a superior campaign machine. It's pretty simple. Obama would have to do something tremendously out of line between now and the election to lose the campaign.

Obama was elected by defeating the man who defeated Mitt Romney.

I imagine that's about what Dewey's campaign thought too. I'll wait and see.

I imagine that the only resemblance between this campaign and the campaign you are referring to is that it was a Presidential election.

Ways this campaign is not like that campaign.

1) Incumbent President.
2) Bigger campaign apparatus than any in history.
3) More money than any campaign in history.

[Marcus]

I imagine that the only resemblance between this campaign and the campaign you are referring to is that it was a Presidential election.
Ways this campaign is not like that campaign.
1) Incumbent President.
2) Bigger campaign apparatus than any in history.
3) More money than any campaign in history.

You may well be right, Tinker, but . .
. . Mousie, thou art no thy lane,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft agley,
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!

[Mr. Perfect]

Romney up by 5 now, 48-43. I told you he would rise once the primary was settled.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

The campaign hasn't even started yet.

You really don't understand politics.

I understand teabaggings. And I can see them from waaaaaaaaaay far off. The last one I saw coming about 19 months in advance.

[Mr. Perfect]

I imagine that the only resemblance between this campaign and the campaign you are referring to is that it was a Presidential election.

Ways this campaign is not like that campaign.

1) Incumbent President.
2) Bigger campaign apparatus than any in history.
3) More money than any campaign in history.

What you may end up learning the hard way is that spam is spam whether you have a sophisticated delivery system and spend a lot on it or not. Obama's only advantage is his incumbency. He is not running on any of his accomplishments (he has none) and has no plans for a second term that he is running on. This is a purposeless Presidency at this point. He can only hope to paint Romney as some kind of right wing radical, which occasionally works, but of course is laughable in the case of Romney. Even Ibrahim would laugh at that. So that is another guaranteed backfire there.

The spam emails and flash mobs have to have some content, so far nothing.

[cdgt]

If a potted plant could secure the GOP nomination, that should be good for at least 45pts when the economy and the opposing Barry/Biden ticket is factored into the equation.

I look for a 55/45 split with more margin in the electoral college.

Unless Romney manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Romney is not in the lead. Romney is the underdog. Romney won't win, but Obama might lose.

The first two are opinion / rhetoric, cannot be substantiated. The third one is rather my point. If Obama's first term has been such a rousing success that a planted pot should be able to poll at least 45pts, Romney needn't win. He'll just have to do a worse job of losing than Obama.*

• * Not a bad proving ground, if you think about it. If Romney wins, my hope is that he'll do a worse job of governing badly than Obama would.

Romney just doesn't have the campaign resources in place that OFA does, he just doesn't. The whole time he was fighting a Primary, Obama's people were keeping track of the dirt the other campaigns collected, and seeding the ground for a local grassroots effort that they will mobilize come time for GOTV in November.

Lemme see. Romney is accused by most of rest of the GOP candidates of ruthlessly destroying them with dirty tactics. And no one need do much digging for dirt on Obama, there is the deficit, the underemployment, the unemployment, the real unemployment and ... oh yeah, the deficit.**

• ** Obama did get Osama though. Gotta give him that. Ka-daffy too. Should be worth a few neocon votes.

[Enki]

The first two are opinion / rhetoric, cannot be substantiated. The third one is rather my point. If Obama's first term has been such a rousing success that a planted pot should be able to poll at least 45pts, Romney needn't win. He'll just have to do a worse job of losing than Obama.*

Not how it has historically worked. Plenty of sitting incumbents have had poor polling and still won.

Lemme see. Romney is accused by most of rest of the GOP candidates of ruthlessly destroying them with dirty tactics. And no one need do much digging for dirt on Obama, there is the deficit, the underemployment, the unemployment, the real unemployment and ... oh yeah, the deficit.**

And only one of them destroyed jobs for a living.

• ** Obama did get Osama though. Gotta give him that. Ka-daffy too. Should be worth a few neocon votes.

Yep. There's a lot more. The campaigns haven'te even started yet.

[Mr. Perfect]

And only one of them destroyed jobs for a living.

It is a strange thing to do if you are President, but Obama's jobs destruction programs have certainly turned a lot of people off.

[Mr. Perfect]

• ** Obama did get Osama though. Gotta give him that. Ka-daffy too. Should be worth a few neocon votes.

Interestingly, Obama is not running on that stuff. I think deep down he doesn't like killing people like that (American enemies).

[cdgt]

The first two are opinion / rhetoric, cannot be substantiated. The third one is rather my point. If Obama's first term has been such a rousing success that a planted pot should be able to poll at least 45pts, Romney needn't win. He'll just have to do a worse job of losing than Obama.*

Not how it has historically worked. Plenty of sitting incumbents have had poor polling and still won.

Jimmy Carter, for example. H.W. Bush. Johnson. Oh wait...

It ain' the polling, though that hurts. It's the unemployment. Or as someone once said, "It's the economy, stupid."

Lemme see. Romney is accused by most of rest of the GOP candidates of ruthlessly destroying them with dirty tactics. And no one need do much digging for dirt on Obama, there is the deficit, the underemployment, the unemployment, the real unemployment and ... oh yeah, the deficit.**

And only one of them destroyed jobs for a living.

I see that Mr. P. has removed that ball from atop the tee...

• ** Obama did get Osama though. Gotta give him that. Ka-daffy too. Should be worth a few neocon votes.

Yep. There's a lot more. The campaigns haven'te even started yet.

Campaigns start the day after the election. And with Obama, it's the only thing that animates him.

[Mr. Perfect]

Every finger Obama points at Romney, 3 point back at him. This is gonna be great.

[Typhoon]

Every finger Obama points at Romney, 3 point back at him. This is gonna be great.

If the US rely wanted change, then RP would be the Republicrat candidate.

MR is the business-as-usual status quo candidate.

Whether BO or MR wins is as important to the future direction of the US as who wins the next Superbowl.

Who wins will probably depend on the state of the US economy just before the election.

NPR | The Obama-Romney Poll-A-Palooza: What's It Mean?

And the best strategy for a poll-deluged civilian? Check back in September.

[Mr. Perfect]

CS, if you really believe that would do me a personal favor and support Mitt Romney? Thanks.

And please, liberals, democrats, DO NOT pay attention to politics until September. Please and thanks.

[Carbizene]

Oy. Has it been four years already?

yeah I'm beginning to realise how small mammals feel.

[Hoosiernorm]

If gas prices spike before the elections then the incumbent will not have a lot of energy in his camp, either will the challenger.

But,

If the SCOTUS knocks down the healthcare law then this will provide support for the POTUS on a level that the GOP can not understand. Also if the SCOTUS upholds it as being constitutional then the GOP will have a base that is ready to march like little tin soldiers into the voting booths on election day. I really wonder if it was crafted to be defeated by the SCOTUS as an election year ploy some times, but that's just me being paranoid.

Any military action anywhere in the world will make the POTUS look more presidential not less and the incumbent can not run against a pull out in the middle east of a war that is not very popular. Romney is not a hawk and has no history as a party hawk so he has nothing to gain or lose by any military engagements.


There are not a lot of social wedge issues this year on many state ballots so neither side has much to gain by attracting voters to the polls. The whole war on birth control isn't an issue beyond press coverage because there are no states running any sort of ballot initiative concerning birth control this election cycle.

The vibrant young Obama doesn't look as young or as healthy as he did a few short years ago and I'm not sure if he will still play to the youth vote as well as he did during the 08 election but I don't see the youth vote where it was the last cycle as well. They are in the streets and I don't think that they will support any candidate this go around. It's a long way off yet and there are a few things that could change but I don't see Obama getting beat by Romney.