Egyptian Presidential Election

[Azrael]

Morsi is a slight favorite to win.

[Milo]

I wonder how much credibility this election will have though.

[Hans Bulvai]

None.

There isn't even a constitution. It will be tailored to fit.

[Azrael]

I don't know, but certainly more than the last Presidential election. The fact that a run-off was required makes it look less blatantly rigged.

So, a step in the right direction, although not sure yet if it was a small step, a large step, or perhaps even a very large step.

I don't expect things to be particularly smooth for Egypt in general over the next few years. I think that things could be considerably better in the long run.

[Azrael]

None.

There isn't even a constitution. It will be tailored to fit.

There is always a chicken versus egg problem:

Are leaders selected before the constitution is written legitimate?
versus
Is a constitution written before leaders are selected legitimate?

[Hans Bulvai]

I would think that there would need to be some kinda law in place that defines the responsibilities vs a president that can come in and declare himslef king.

[Ibrahim]

None.

There isn't even a constitution. It will be tailored to fit.

How would a constitution precede the election of representatives to draft it?

[Azrael]

I would think that there would need to be some kinda law in place that defines the responsibilities vs a president that can come in and declare himslef king.

I doubt neither the Egyptian Army nor the Muslim Brotherhood would allow whomever gets elected to declare himself king. Regardless of who wins, he'll be a "weak President", relative to anyone since the 1950s. Morsi (as you probably already know) isn't the head of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

[Azrael]

None.

There isn't even a constitution. It will be tailored to fit.

How would a constitution precede the election of representatives to draft it?

Exactly. So, they're doing things in the right order (as they're also doing in Tunisia).

[AzariLoveIran]

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Mossad reporting :


Secret US poll projects 70 pc lead for Muslim presidential candidate Morsi


look, folks

If this guy were really Islamist, why Rhubarb so relaxed ?

Meaning

this guy, Morsi (never had heard of him), not probably, but surely, one of those CIA groomed Muslim prepared to fool Egyptian mass

Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei was the right guy .. but West does not want him .. west wants (our SOB) Islamist



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[Azrael]

The Egyptian Parliament has just been dissolved.

It appears that the election, if it happens, won't matter -- the military is still in control.

[Juggernaut Nihilism]

Don't worry, I'm sure the Islamists will accept the military's decision without incident.

[Azrael]

Don't worry, I'm sure the Islamists will accept the military's decision without incident.

And so will the secular opposition . . .

It seems that the military is betting that they can handle whatever incidents their power grab provokes.

This is disappointing; but not surprising.

[Azrael]

The Economist has just endorsed Morsi, the MB candidate.

[AzariLoveIran]

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The Economist has just endorsed Morsi, the MB candidate.

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Shah said, lifting the beard of mad mullahs, it is written "Made in England"

This "Morsi" groomed by west for this Job

Hans, welcome to one more generation of western cronyism

Poor Egyptians .. poor Egyptians

look, folks

Egyptians do not want Islamist (CIA trained, Wahhabi Bankrolled)


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[Ibrahim]

The Egyptian Parliament has just been dissolved.

It appears that the election, if it happens, won't matter -- the military is still in control.

An Egyptian journalist tweeted that the revolution replaced a Pharonic government (rule by an all-powerful individual) to a Mameluke government (rule by a military caste).



It's not enough but the situation is still in flux. The military hasn't gone Assad/Gaddafi and started butchering the population, they appear to want to form some kind of consensual government. Just one in which the retain as much of their power as possible, and one in which the MB doesn't have too much, in their view.

[Azrael]

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The Economist has just endorsed Morsi, the MB candidate.

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Shah said, lifting the beard of mad mullahs, it is written "Made in England"

Yeah. This is like back in the day when the British India Office backed the House of Saud, while the British Foreign Office backed the House of Sharif Hussein and ran Egypt. The British also picked the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem and the "Sultan" of Egypt.

This "Morsi" groomed by west for this Job

Possible. He's spent a lot of time in the West.

Hans, welcome to one more generation of western cronyism

Poor Egyptians .. poor Egyptians

look, folks

Egyptians do not want Islamist (CIA trained, Wahhabi Bankrolled).

Who knows what they want, or if they can get it.

[Azrael]

The Egyptian Parliament has just been dissolved.

It appears that the election, if it happens, won't matter -- the military is still in control.

An Egyptian journalist tweeted that the revolution replaced a Pharonic government (rule by an all-powerful individual) to a Mameluke government (rule by a military caste).

Clever.

It's not enough but the situation is still in flux. The military hasn't gone Assad/Gaddafi and started butchering the population, they appear to want to form some kind of consensual government. Just one in which the retain as much of their power as possible, and one in which the MB doesn't have too much, in their view.

I agree. Unfortunately, military juntas can (but usually don't, thankfully) last for decades.

[Ibrahim]

Ongoing military rule in Egypt is a distinct possibility, though I think they would have been wiser never to have held elections at all. People have got a taste now, they'll want more.

[Azrael]

You're probably right, but perhaps, at the time, they needed a safety valve to buy some time for the situation to cool down.

[Mr. Perfect]

More Arab Spring please.

[Ibrahim]

You're probably right, but perhaps, at the time, they needed a safety valve to buy some time for the situation to cool down.

I think they need to form a parliament, and that there was no real reason for the military to break it up. Democratically elected representatives is the first and most essential step. Ultimately the military will have to cave, I think they are trying to retain as much influence as they can.

Consider the power held by the Turkish military from the 1920's until just recently. The system was democratic, but the military reserved an ultimate veto for itself. That's what they are aiming for, but I don't think they will get it, nor should they. The military should always be subordinate to civilian government.

[monster_gardener]

You're probably right, but perhaps, at the time, they needed a safety valve to buy some time for the situation to cool down.

I think they need to form a parliament, and that there was no real reason for the military to break it up. Democratically elected representatives is the first and most essential step. Ultimately the military will have to cave, I think they are trying to retain as much influence as they can.

Consider the power held by the Turkish military from the 1920's until just recently. The system was democratic, but the military reserved an ultimate veto for itself. That's what they are aiming for, but I don't think they will get it, nor should they. The military should always be subordinate to civilian government.

Thank you Very Much for your post, Ibrahim.

The military should always be subordinate to civilian government.

Maybe usually.........

But I'm not so sure about "Always"....

What if the "civilian government" is a theocracy......

Doesn't have to be just the Muslim BotherHoodz ........

Could be something on the order of Aztec priests

Or a "Christian" Dominionist state a la "The Handmaid's Tale" or "Run, Come See Jerusalem"..........

Or not even theocratic ...........

Let's say Germany ~ 1944.......... The democratically elected "Leader" vs. the aristocratic miltary man Claus Schenk, Count Stauffenberg......

IIRC in a post a day or so ago, you opined that the Uz civilian establishment would be even more blood thirsty the military in drone use.........

[Hoosiernorm]

More Arab Spring please.

Sounds like an essay title

[AzariLoveIran]

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"If we find that Scaf stands firm against us as we try to fulfil the demands of the revolution, we will go back to the streets and escalate things peacefully to the highest possible stage,"

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"Over the past 18 months we were very keen to avoid any clashes or confrontations with other components of Egypt's political system because we felt that it would have negative consequences for the democratic system and for society as a whole," . . . . "But now it's very clear that Scaf and other institutions of the state are determined to stand in the way of what we're trying to achieve, and we won't accept this any more. Egypt will not go back to the old regime through any means, legal or illegal.

"The revolution is facing a life or death moment and the Egyptian people have put their faith in Dr Morsi to represent them at this time."

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Hmmmm


Rhubarb , what is your take ? ?

Why you keepin silent ? ?

you relaaaxed , Morsi our SOB ?


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