Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

[Simple Minded]

Most of the articles I read on this say that the modern art world is rife with drug money laundering because rich people can give each other large sums of money for things that the price is only set by rich people giving each other large sums of money for things.

any other business the numbers need to add up, but not this business.

Interesting pespective. the banana article reminded me of article about a Japanese person buying a meteorite for $500,000 as an indicator that the Japanese real estate bubble was at its peak.

[noddy]

https://www.france24.com/en/20191222-ei ... uel-macron

Eight west African countries Saturday agreed to change the name of their common currency to Eco and severed the CFA franc’s links to former colonial ruler France.

The CFA franc was initially pegged to the French franc and has been linked to the euro for about two decades.

Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo currently use the currency. All the countries are former French colonies with the exception of Guinea-Bissau.

The announcement was made Saturday during a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron to Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer and France’s former main colony in West Africa.

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara, speaking in the country’s economic capital Abidjan, announced “three major changes”.

These included “a change of name” of the currency, he said, adding that the others would be “stopping holding 50 percent of the reserves in the French Treasury” and the “withdrawal of French governance” in any aspect related to the currency.

Macron hailed it as a “historic reform”, adding: “The Eco will see the light of day in 2020.”

The deal took six months in the making, a French source said.

[Typhoon]

Visual Cap | The History of Interest Rates Over 670 Years

[Typhoon]

Spiked | Why the capitalist class has gone green

As George Monbiot memorably described it, environmentalism is a ‘campaign for austerity’.

[Doc]

[noddy]

Spiked | Why the capitalist class has gone green

As George Monbiot memorably described it, environmentalism is a ‘campaign for austerity’.

tax me more, give me less!

[noddy]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ted_States

does anyone remember the debt ceiling(s) ? seems hard to spot in the graphs.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ted_States

does anyone remember the debt ceiling(s) ? seems hard to spot in the graphs.

What's a debt?

[Simple Minded]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ted_States

does anyone remember the debt ceiling(s) ? seems hard to spot in the graphs.

What's a debt?

I think it is a gender, race, or group identity that used to be oppressed by a glass ceiling. But now, thankfully, they have been liberated!

[noddy]

What's a debt?

I think it is a gender, race, or group identity that used to be oppressed by a glass ceiling. But now, thankfully, they have been liberated!

perfect.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

I think it is a gender, race, or group identity that used to be oppressed by a glass ceiling. But now, thankfully, they have been liberated!

[Typhoon]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ted_States

does anyone remember the debt ceiling(s) ? seems hard to spot in the graphs.

The debt ceiling is mounted on well-lubricated wheels allowing it to be easily moved.

[Simple Minded]

Once one realizes that glass ceilings not only oppress the oppressed, but also oppress saviors from exercising god like powers, moving or smashing the glass ceilings becomes an act of compassion.

Kinda like climate scientists, seeing as how science is so oppressive..... it's got to go!

[Typhoon]

Speaking of national debt, US-style.

Reason | GAO: Fed debt is 'unsustainable' and the Pentagon finances are FUBAR.

Japan, of course, is in no position to point fingers as it is heading, debt wise, to its own unique and special "Destination F*cked".

[Miss_Faucie_Fishtits]

1. Chinese manufacturing facilities didn't open after Chinese New Year. A lag followed by a lag which "created massive shortfall in Chinese exports and, therefore, a drop in container demand."

2. Sailings were canceled, which caused "staggering" demand shortfall for containers.

3. "Blank sailings" lead to more blank sailings back to Asia creating 3 - 10 weeks' more lag time.

4. Pre-Chinese New Year peak of delivered cargo results in excess containers building up in places "such as Europe and North America." Repatriating containers takes time and money.

5. "Backhauls to Asia will drive up backhaul rates."

6. There will be a "surge in demand for containers" but getting containers back takes time. See Domino number 4.

7. Need to order new containers

8. Value of all containers will drop as a result of Domino 7.

9. Headhaul rates will increase. Headhaul is "leg of the route that has the highest volume." The route back is "back haul."

10. Refrigerated containers will continue to stack up in Chinese ports.

11. That will trigger "congestion surcharges"

12. Refrigerated containers will be diverted to other Asian ports "creating congestion challenges – and new tranches of dominoes – all their own.

13. This is will cause temporary equipment shortages.

14. Refrigerated transport rates will increase.

kj7ixi2lqF4

Jensen says, "In the best case, the coronavirus outbreak is contained quickly. If so, the dominoes outlined above will continue to fall, but the duration of each one will be relatively short."

If anything, President Trump has done more to highlight the need for more manufacturing in the United States than offshore. He's the one who made an issue out of U.S.-made steel, for example, as a national security issue. He's dismissed as a jingoistic know-nothing for it, but he's been proven right over and over, as the coronavirus has shown.

https://pjmedia.com/trending/the-shippi ... ke-a-seat/

[Simple Minded]

Speaking of national debt, US-style.

Reason | GAO: Fed debt is 'unsustainable' and the Pentagon finances are FUBAR.

Japan, of course, is in no position to point fingers as it is heading, debt wise, to its own unique and special "Destination F*cked".

Perhaps the interpretation of John Maynard Keynes' famous quote was wrong.
Perhaps, "In the long run, we're all dead" is not true, but, perhaps, "In the long run, we're all f**ked!"

In either case, the SM maxim of "In the long run, we're all a bunch of me's!" is still valid. As a buddy said, Economics is a mixture of alchemy and poker. As long as you die still holding your cards, it's all good.

[Typhoon]

Coronavirus induced panic in the Streets of London, New York, Tokyo, and elsewhere.

Share markets panicking - circuit breakers flipping. Oil price plummeting. US 10 Year Govt Bond yield down to 0.52%.

Saudi Arabia decides that now is a good time to start an oil price war with Russia.

Oh, well.

[noddy]

The next interesting thing is how our leveraged to the hilt economy deals with all these defaults and delayed payments.

Will the lack of fat in the system come back to bite us, or will central banks and governments deflate it all away.

if the latter, how much money can evaporate before folks get pissed off.

stay tuned!

https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets ... e5a5dbcbf0

[noddy]

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/0 ... ge-crisis/

As the days go by in an unprecedented shutdown of the U.S. economy to slow the coronavirus outbreak, any amount of rent looks increasingly difficult to cover for a wide swath of Americans, from recently fired service workers to local small-business owners. Unfortunately for those most affected, these payments can’t simply be wiped out — at least, not without dire repercussions…

This, more or less, is the catastrophic “domino effect” that real-estate investor Tom Barrack, chief executive officer of Colony Capital Inc., warned about this week. Simply put, if commercial tenants don’t pay rent because of a lack of cash, then property owners might be squeezed and default on their mortgage payments. The same goes for homeowners. That could bring the problem squarely onto the balance sheets of large U.S. banks, which will suffer steep losses on their loans…

At first, it might have seemed as if Barrack was simply talking his book. But as more details emerged about the carnage across the $16 trillion U.S. mortgage market, it’s clear that the complex web of financial obligations tied to real estate could again be the flashpoint that leads to a financial crisis without some sort of intervention.

Part of the reason that mortgages are again veering into crisis mode is because the modern market has so many moving parts.

a comment that mostly captures the truth of it.

Stephen Morris
March 27, 2020 at 10:32 am
Is this the end of the supposed “Miracle Eeconomy”? It’s easy to make the case:

• the drought had already reduced agricultural exports;

• bush fires and coronavirus had already slashed foreign tourist numbers;

• the epidemic has cut foreign student numbers;

• the epidemic will potentially cut future mineral and energy exports, especially exports to Australia’s principal market of China;

• meanwhile we have a metropolitan environmental lobby actively trying to close down or obstruct Australia’s export coal, gas and some agricultural industries. Where do they imagine the money comes from to pay for their lifestyle?

• import substitution industries (the former manufacturers) have been destroyed by four decades of so-called “economic rationalism” making us utterly dependent on foreign imports for essential goods. Likewise, a productive rural Australia – which actually enjoyed a comparative advantage on international markets – was gutted by domestic “competition policy” (a policy which somehow managed to exempt politically powerful oligopolies like banking);

• meanwhile the workforce has been diverted into doing really useful things . . . like superannuation funds management! Which monkey dreamt up the notion that Australia could ever have a comparative advantage in financial services?

• even domestic oil refining capacity has been closed down to the point where we now have no security of supply for refined product;

• the proceeds from a once-in-a-century commodity boom were been frittered away by venal politicians. Even before the GFC, Howard and Costello had put in place structural spending increases in a vain attempt to win the election, and this was followed by deliberate fiscal stimulus under Rudd. There has been no serious attempt to control government spending for more than 13 years;

• strategic monopolies, essential services, critical databases and tax farms have been sold off to private financiers and the proceeds squandered by State government (on really useful things like sports stadiums!); and

• the distorted tax system has created a dangerous housing boom which puts Australian house prices at record highs both historically and by comparison with all other countries, and Australian household debt is likewise internationally high.

Is there anything I’ve missed?

Coronavirus may be a catalyst but this crisis has been 30 years in the making.

[Simple Minded]

Well put.

Only the idealists are surprised.

[Typhoon]

Doomberg | The Fed's Cure Risks Being Worse Than the Disease

An alphabet soup of new asset-buying programs will essentially nationalize large swaths of the [US] financial markets, and the consequences could be profound.

As the song goes, the world is turning Japanese.

[Typhoon]

. . .

a comment that mostly captures the truth of it.

Stephen Morris
March 27, 2020 at 10:32 am

Coronavirus may be a catalyst but this crisis has been 30 years in the making.

Is this the end of the supposed “Miracle Eeconomy”? It’s easy to make the case:

• the drought had already reduced agricultural exports;

• bush fires and coronavirus had already slashed foreign tourist numbers;

• the epidemic has cut foreign student numbers;

• the epidemic will potentially cut future mineral and energy exports, especially exports to Australia’s principal market of China;

• meanwhile we have a metropolitan environmental lobby actively trying to close down or obstruct Australia’s export coal, gas and some agricultural industries. Where do they imagine the money comes from to pay for their lifestyle?

• import substitution industries (the former manufacturers) have been destroyed by four decades of so-called “economic rationalism” making us utterly dependent on foreign imports for essential goods. Likewise, a productive rural Australia – which actually enjoyed a comparative advantage on international markets – was gutted by domestic “competition policy” (a policy which somehow managed to exempt politically powerful oligopolies like banking);

• meanwhile the workforce has been diverted into doing really useful things . . . like superannuation funds management! Which monkey dreamt up the notion that Australia could ever have a comparative advantage in financial services?

• even domestic oil refining capacity has been closed down to the point where we now have no security of supply for refined product;

• the proceeds from a once-in-a-century commodity boom were been frittered away by venal politicians. Even before the GFC, Howard and Costello had put in place structural spending increases in a vain attempt to win the election, and this was followed by deliberate fiscal stimulus under Rudd. There has been no serious attempt to control government spending for more than 13 years;

• strategic monopolies, essential services, critical databases and tax farms have been sold off to private financiers and the proceeds squandered by State government (on really useful things like sports stadiums!); and

• the distorted tax system has created a dangerous housing boom which puts Australian house prices at record highs both historically and by comparison with all other countries, and Australian household debt is likewise internationally high.

Is there anything I’ve missed?

Practising kowtowing.

SMH | Foreign Investment Board braces for Chinese takeovers of distressed Australian assets

[Nonc Hilaire]

Does anybody understand this US Treasury/Fed/Blackrock deal that went down last week?

[Simple Minded]

Doomberg | The Fed's Cure Risks Being Worse Than the Disease

An alphabet soup of new asset-buying programs will essentially nationalize large swaths of the [US] financial markets, and the consequences could be profound.

As the song goes, the world is turning Japanese.

All the people who first predicted this 45 years ago.... and who have not died of old age are saying "Aha! I told you so!"

in ORZ, "Patience is a virtue!"

[Typhoon]

Does anybody understand this US Treasury/Fed/Blackrock deal that went down last week?

Here's one article that discusses the issue:

FP | US Fed's big boost for BlackRock raises eyebrows on Wall Street